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Latest send out (06/30/03 10:25AM)

Model Portfolio Closed

We have closed the last two positions (sell on bid price) as our portfolio matures today.
Flairis at 0.125, Seksun at 0.8

Our portfolio started 7^th February, we have closed 35 positions, achieved a total gain of 149.22%.
During the same period, STI, the benchmark of the Singapore market raised to 1465 from 1285. A 14% gain, not bad. 

I hope I had demonstrated the strategic play and active position management for short term trading.
For some of you who followed my trading call, its time to reward yourself now�.
 

Market is unpredictable, strategies plays important role. I believe there are many punters were burned during last two sessions.

No matter how bullish or bearish we are, we have to listen to the market. For every position we have, a stop loss and target must be established. If we are right, let profits runs. If we are wrong, cut small loss immediately. Just as how I managed this portfolio. There are many losing positions though, we have achieved the total gain is 135% in four month.

This strategy allows us survive in the long run, no matter market is trading side way, bullish or bearish. We do not expect one trade to make us a home run, slowly we add to our gains. Remember, bulls makes $$, bears makes $$, only pigs losing $$$$. 

Looking at model portfolio, we still holding three positions:
DMX bought at 0.235, running stop 0.265, target for a break 0.29 to 0.31. last done 0.29.
Seksun bought 0.775, stop loss 0.765, target 0.86, last done 0.77.
Flairis bought 0.125, stop loss 0.115, target 0.15, last done 0.12.

Note: our model portfolio will be closed by 30^th June
 

As stated in my 30 May email, when STI close at 1349 and broken 1344 level, I have identified there are many indication that STI is clearly on uptrend, �all these indicate a clear up trend was firmed, and more upside to come!!! Next major resistance comes at 1406�, the reasons are:

1. Volume expansion,
2. Trading well above its 50days moving average.
3. Most importantly, STI finally broken 1344 level after it failed to break twice.

It indeed rallied to as high as 1490 on last Friday. Since end of April, my trading strategy has been �BUY ON DIPS�, I hope you managed to catch any part of the rally. 

However, there are several indications that suggest a short term correction is going on. As shown in the chart below,
1. STI is meeting major resistance at 1486 (horizontal line and two circle), and failed to break.
2. RSI is very well overbought (even above 80), and its cutting down.
3. Volume has been dropping
4. After a decent rally over the past two weeks, its reasonable for traders and punters to take some profits.

The strategy is stay light in portfolio with quality stocks (backed by sound fundamentals, not speculative)
Please note this is just a short term correction, medium term remains up, unless it breaks 1255 level, it will turn very bearish. The short term may be last for 1 week or 2 week, we shall wait and act accordingly.

Model portfolio
We still hold DMX bought at 0.235 (Running stop 0.235), and Flairis bought at 0.125 (stop loss 0.115).
Out portfolio has a total gain of 118.33% at today�s closing.
 

Latest send out (06/06/03 07:09PM)

Model Portfolio Update

We sold Uni Food on 02/06, preserve some bullets for other potential counters.
We are still holding two positions now in our portfolio, Autron (bought at 0.18 on 28/05) and DMX (bought at 0.235 yesterday). We raised running stop for Autron at 0.2. Never turn a winning trade into loss!

As at today�s closing, our portfolio gained a total of 112.78%, STI also performed well for the past month, it raised more than 100 points since early May. I hope you had participated in the rally. 

STI is hovering above overbought level on its daily chart, and approaching overbought on the weekly chart as well, it is better to be cautious. Existing holdings might hold for a potential upside target 1485.
 

Latest send out (05/30/03 09:26PM)

STI surged for third consecutive day. It rallied to a high to 1360, but closed near session low at 1349.As shown in the chart below, STI has broken its resistance level at 1344 (horizontal line and small circle),

Volume has expanding dramatically (big circle), it 50 days moving average (black line) has turned bullish, and it is trading well above it, all these indicate a clear up trend was firmed, and more upside to come!!! Next major resistance comes at 1406.
Looking at the cheering rally is mainly due to the expected SARS free declaration from WHO, many of the counters are badly hit by SARS are recovering, and also semi con stocks are clearly outperforming the overall market, due to many good results from tech laden NADAQ recently showing semi con sector is recovering.

However, there is always a case of �Buy on rumor, sell on fact�. Further more, as show in the candle stick chart below, today�s closing looks like a shooting star pattern, this is bearish, usually appears at market top. We cannot discount a possibility that STI will retrace to 1330 in the very short term.

As I am writing this, US Dow Jones is showing weakness after hitting a recent high 8862, this might be setting tonight�s high as well.

As I emphasized in recent emails, the strategy is still �BUY ON DIPS�, those listened should have rewarded yourself already.
We still hold two positions at this moment, Autron bought at 0.18, today closed at 0.19, stop loss has shifted from 0.165 to 0.18 break-even level. We can never let a winning trade turn into loss!  Uni Food we bought at 0.355, we will snatch its dividend and sell it on Monday market open.
 

Latest send out (05/16/03 11:01PM)

STI dropped for third consecutive days to close near session low at 1304.

Not surprised at all to see the market is doing a correction now. As featured in my previous email, STI failed to break through major resistance level 1344, it will retrace or doing a consolidation for some time. Looking at the pattern and major U.S indices are near their resistance level as well. Singapore market is likely doing a deeper correction. There will be more down side to come for the short term.

For SARS, all eyes on 18 May, whether Singapore can be taken off from the �SARS affected black list� by WHO(World Health Organization). If so, there might be some position reaction from the punters.

The other side in China, today reported 39 of people affected SARS, this is lowest figure so far. Obviously indicates SARS is slowly under control in China now. As I featured before, this scenario will definitely benefit some food counters such as Pfood, UFood, Thai Villige. As it turned out, PFood headed number one top volume and added 5.5 cents close at 0.845. UFood also gained with good volume. (There has been rumors saying CEO sited PFood has re-opened some operation which was closed due to recent SARS affection.)

 Model Portfolio

At today�s closing, our portfolio registered a total gain 73.46%.

We closed 30 positions, the average trade commissions is about 0.7% (1 buy and 1 sell),
The total commission pay out is  30 * 0.7 = 21%
After commission, we still have a 73.46 - 21 = 52.46% gain.

The most number of counters we held at same time is four. (Most of the time we held less than four positions or no positions at all). This means our total value gained at least 52.46 / 4 = 13.1%

Looking at Singapore�s benchmark STI�s performance, it closed at 1304, raised only 1.5% from 1285 since 07 February where we started our portfolio. We will close our portfolio by 30 June.
 

Latest send out (05/12/03 09:55PM)

STI closed at 1327.42, up 18 points.

I had highlighted the rotational play in SGX for the past week. Penny stock, small cap, tech stock, index linked counters take turn trade in heavy volume (above 1bln), it will sustain the good gains in the index. Small cap, financial and index linked counters are in the limelight for this week.

However, we are cautiously to watch next resistance level 1344 last high. If STI is able to penetrate this level, there will be another rush into buying. Otherwise there will be a possibility to retrace down to 1300 level at least.

Model Portfolio

We have added Pac Cent at 0.245 last Friday. It�s encouraging to see it surged to a high 0.29 at the end of closing. It registered 18% gain in just two days!

There are U.S investment houses buying heavily into PCCW, Chartered �s corporate bonds.
We have seen Chartered surged to 0.85 from the low at 0.635. We continue to hold Chartered, more upside to come! (It registered 24% gain in our portfolio.)
PCCW had good gain in Hong Kong trading recently. this will be directly affect Pac Cent listed in Singapore.

We added another position on Pac Cent at 0.28 in view the bullish break out 0.275. It retraced to a low 0.275 (0.27/0.275) in the afternoon on profits taking. But it surged to a new high 0.29 in the late afternoon.

At today�s closing, our portfolio registered a total gain 90.28%.
http://www.geocities.com/plasticpumpkin/vmp2003.htm
 

Latest send out (05/05/03 08:35PM)

We�ve noticed what a remarkable rally for STI in past few days! It propelled from a low at 1225 to today�s high 1326.

As I mentioned in previous mails, when STI was at around 1245 level, we are cautiously bullish about STI, so that we hold some positions with limited downside risks, such as Lankom. When STI moves higher, we are more bullish, so we added some more positions. However, when STI rise above 1300, we are cautious again. At this level, we should be considering reducing positions and act according to the market. But if it continues to trend higher, we should continue to ride the rally.

As at today�s closing, our portfolio gained total of 69.24%.
View updated portfolio at http://www.geocities.com/plasticpumpkin/vmp2003.htm

I have stated 1300 ~ 1315 as a resistance level for STI, now it has broken convincingly, it become support now and we are bullish. However, looking at the overall market has gained more than 100 points in the past few days, it is vulnerable to any profit taking and leads to downside correction. The strategy is now: BUY ON DIPS, RIDE THE RALLY.
 

As STI is approaching 1300~1315 resistance range, we have to be cautious. Furthermore, US market is at crucial cross road. Dow Jones is near 8520 resistance level. However, we should ride existing position, until we see clear signal. We do not add fresh positions at this point of time.

Looking at our portfolio, we have one short position NOL, we continue to hold and anticipate a further down move.We have four long positions Lankom, Chartered, Roly, Informatics.

As at today�s closing, our portfolio has a 47.81% gain. Compare to STI today�s closing was at 1299, it also gained 1.09% from 1285 level where we started our model portfolio.
http://www.geocities.com/plasticpumpkin/vmp2003.htm

The result could be better, due to my personal time constraints and the risk level to consider. Have to admit that I have missed number of positions that were in my watch list and made substantial gains. Such as Star Cruise, Multi Vision, DMX, etc.

Not to worry, the market is always there for us to participate. We understand the market is trading sideway (not going anywhere). It is very difficult to trade a side way market, as if you hold your positions for one year, the best it can be at the same price as you bought it a year ago. When the market is moving in a direction, there will be much more opportunities for us to trade.
 

Latest send out (04/14/03 09:09PM)

We have cleared Citiraya at 0.505 cutting loss level. We had 1.94% loss.
As at today�s closing, our portfolio has 22.38% gain.

In my previous email, I�ve stated Singapore market is on up trend, poised to break 1338 resistance. It did so, and we are convinced at that time.

However, due to the bad economics news flow and SARS situation was not improving. The market was not able to sustain its rally. The bears are stronger now. We have seen that these few days, the market is not performing as we hoped.

We do not try to be stubborn and go against the market.
We have noticed we have done the right move to square Chartered at 0.67 and take profits on TPV a few days ago.

Frankly it is a difficult market to trade now, it is going sideline. The trading plan is to watch carefully for any clear signal.
Meanwhile, keep a reasonable position with limited downside risks. Such as Lankom we kept till now. 

The following stocks I am considering adding long positions: Roly, PFood
 

Latest send out (04/07/03 11:20PM)

STI rose 25 points to 1338.23! 

I hope that you read my email sent out yesterday (04/06/2003). When I was writing previous email, STI was still at 1313. I was calling to add positions, and STI is poised to break resistance 1338. Not surprisingly, it did so as early as today!
Though off its high at 1344, it manage to stay above 1338 is very good sign, there is more up side to come! Hope you have benefited from my effort.

Recap we calling for add positions today for Chartered at 0.67, it was day high at that time (low has been 0.66). Wonder how many of you dare to buy at day high. However, by the afternoon, it surged to 0.715, closed at 0.71. There is still lot of upside potential.

Just updated model portfolio at website, view it at http://www.geocities.com/plasticpumpkin/vmp2003.htm
As you can see, at today�s close, our profit is 44.27%.

As I always emphasized, when we are on the right track, and proved by the market. We have to strike with our full force. When we are not sure, we stay out. Now we have correctly identified the trend is going up. What to do? You should have the answer now.

TPV has reached our original target 0.5 which is bought at 0.46.
I have adjusted TPV target to 0.54. Stop loss also adjusted to 0.485.

When initial target reached, we raise stop loss level higher to prevent turn a winning position into loss. At same time, we ride the rally along with the market.
 

Latest send out (04/06/03 11:13PM)

Over the past few days or weeks, most of the markets are affected by the news from the Iraq battle fields. It was extremely volatile especially in such a situation. It�s hard to identify the real trend which market is going. When we are not sure, we stay out.

Lets analyze past week�s world wide performance and the progress of the coalition army.  
US markets are able to hold strong positive close despite many negative factors. Such as increased unemployment file claim, reduced durable goods order, major airlines are making losses quarter after quarter, and even facing bankrupt risk.  

From the front line of the Iraq battle ground, US armies are miles away from Baghadad�s central district, mixed with the civilization of the Iraq people. It will be difficult for them to make use of any chemical weapon at this stage. Of course there will be still chances for Saddam to do so as a last resort. We cannot predict on that. The theory is, when they did not use it, we will assume they will not use it.

And also, the commodities are in the red (down trend), such as oil, gold. For the stock markets, looks like a medium term up trend is in place. In Singapore, STI is poised to break 1338 resistance level.

As mentioned in previous email, we must stay vigilant at the moment. We do not want to totally stay out of the market. So we manage a suitable position. Currently there are three in our portfolio, Citiraya, TPV and Lankom.

The website is updated with latest portfolio. http://www.geocities.com/plasticpumpkin/

When we are not sure, we stay out. When we are sure, and proved by the market, we must attack with full force!
We have to add positions to trend the market in the coming weeks if things going well,

Trading is like war. Everyone is trying to make money from others. In order for us to win, we must beat the professionals equipped with professional tools and full attention to the market.

Along the way, we must learn and progress. Recap recently we made a loss position on SIA. When we add position at 9.5, we know that SIA has dropped a lot from recent high 10.5, and very near the pivot point 9.3. The stop loss level is well defined. We also noticed the cancelled flights and reduced passengers due to SARS virus. This affects the investor�s confidence in carriers such as SIA. This was reflected in its price as well. We also identified once the virus gets in control, the confidence will be resumed and the price will recover. It did so as well. SIA managed to recover from its low at 8.65, is now trading at 9.2.  The mistake is we entered this position too early! However, I am skeptical at this level at this time. There is a gap at 9.35 will act as resistance. It SIA can clear 9.35 resistance, it will be very bullish. Otherwise, it will be capped under 9.35.

On the other hand, again due to SARS, reduced flights and overseas travels. This will add revenue to conference calls, overseas long distance calls and related telecom activities. Singtel is doing this business. Obviously it�s been reflected in its price as well.

Please note that sometimes, not all positions will be added into our model portfolio, due to the risk level and personal constraints. What to do? We can�t have all after all!
 

====Model portfolio review=====

For the pass few days, we had closed 5 positions.

Let�s recap the past performance of the Singapore market and our portfolio.
Since the STI was at 1263, we are calling to reduce positions, eventually it fell to a low 1205.

Those who listened to me could have prevented any loss. We do not keep bad positions when we identify the down trend. This would help us to preserve our profits significantly.

From the low 1205, STI did a quick rally for the past few days, this is mainly due to Iraq war was going to start soon, and expect it would be a short and quick one. Singapore market did a brief quick rally.
However, we are skeptical of the uncertainty relief rally. However, we want to participate in the market.

We did not chase the counters that rallied too much. we looked into laggard play, such as second liners and quality small cap stocks. And most importantly, must be NIMBLE in such market situation.

The pre-war rally is mainly due to investors anticipate a US will get quick victory. Since the war started yesterday, Bush quoted �the war is not as soon as most people think�. How about if the war is not going to be quick? The market will retrace! Especially after most markets did significant rally since the past week.
So we decided to take short term profits and enter at lower level later.

For the updated portfolio information, visit http://www.geocities.com/plasticpumpkin

 

Latest send out (03/14/03 10:09PM)

Followed my last call on 03/11/03, we closed our last position Roly in our portfolio.
STI, the bench mark of the Singapore market, was at 1207 at that time, it has droped 78pts from 1285, or 6% since we started this portfolio on 02/07/03. Compared to STI's 6% drop, the result of our portfolio is 7.99% gain.

Look back at our closed positions, number of them are closed at break even level. Though there will not be any profits, I regard these are successful trade which we minimized our loss. We bought these counters at good support level, and anticipate it will not break this level and rally from there. But this never happend, in the end, it broken down and stay below our entry level instead. (for example, MMI, Beyonics...)

Though STI has rebound to above 1240 in the past week, we are skeptical and not in hurry to chase this counter trend rally. We will monitor and wait for better oppotunities to enter positions again.

Since this model portfolio setup on 07 February 2003, it has been exactly one month.

STI which is used to bench mark Singapore market was at 1285 on 07/02/03,

It is at 1243 at today�s close. It has dropped 42 points, namely 3.3%

Let�s have a review on our portfolio.

Overall we have a gain 14% despite there are only two closed profit position (indicated in green).
Nevertheless, amid the geopolitical tensions and weak global economic environment, most of the markets are in down trend and most of the counters are in red, we understand it�s extremely difficult to manage a profitable trading portfolio.
(Please note shorting is not featured in this portfolio. however, if you are more risky appetite, you can base on my exit trading call, to initiate a short position.)
For examples, we exit Seksun @0.995, its now @0.925. TPV exit @0.51, now @0.485. Beyonics 0.2, now 0.185. MMI exit 0.22, now 0.205.

I want to demonstrate to you all the gist of trading management.
We have cut loss on time, before it falls to out of control. We reduced our loss; we saved our bullets and preserved our profits.
We do not have any bad position when the market is going down. When the market turns around, we can quickly jump into it.

As you can see, I have only two gain positions, but its more than enough to cover other seven loss or breakeven position. Why?
Because I am able to achieve greater percentage gain, compared to the percentage of loss.

Hope you have benefited from my effort!

My model portfolio started on 07/02, lets have a review of my performance

I have closed two position displayed in green, others are un-realized profits.
If you followed my strategy, you have gained 24% in less than a month! (Excludes brokerage)

STI close at 25/02/03 at 1290.44, since the beginning on 07/02/03, STI was at 1285.41. STI raised 0.39% during this period.
My portfolio gained 24% during same period. I have simply outperformed STI by 23.69% in less than a month.

But this is nothing much to cheer, I could have done better.

Some points to share:

1. I may not be able to select the top gainer every time.
2. Most stocks are low risk but with high return potential.
3. I should have taken profit on MMI at 0.24, because the fundamentals for MMI deteriorate, there is no much up side potential for MMI in the short term. Especially in such a doom market situation. I will consider to reduce MMI in our portfolio.
4. I have correctly identified resistance level on Seksun at $1. Since I called to reduce position on 18/02, it never goes up and fall to $0.93 at today�s closing.
5. Since I called reduce position on Beyonics at $0.2 on 19/02, because the fundamental also not positive and relatively under performed STI. It has broken strong support at 0.195 and traded at a low $0.19 at today�s closing.
6. Since I called to buy Darco and PFood, it has bucked the trend and closed strongly at same trading day, amid the sea red market. I will continue to hold these two stocks for greater return.