Black Prop 1

Analyzing a Black Propaganda
by: Simeon Ilagan
March 15, 2000

(The author is a psyops operative who was active in the anti-Marcos campaign from 1983 to 1986. It was the fax machine then that was extensively used in disseminating propaganda in the Philippines and abroad. Now the e-mail has taken over that function and has proven to be more effective with its speed and scope.)

Erap Members of the Filipino community in the United States were recently bombarded by e-mails containing a common message about a "rumor" and certain "events" involving President Erap Estrada. In as much as I was asked by my friends to comment on the message I decided to analyze it based on my experience in psychological operations or propaganda. This way those who have read the message will have a better feel of what to believe in and what to discard as lies and pure concoctions.

The message in question is a form of black propaganda where the original source is unknown. The e-mails only showed the latest recipients and forwarders of the message.

Black propagandists hope that the message or information that they send out will be passed on from one person to another. Using e-mail, this could now be achieved in geometrical progression at unimaginable speed. For black propagandists, the repetitive cognition of a "lie" for a period of time will soon render it a "fact" in the people’s minds. During the anti-Marcos campaign our group of pysops operatives tried as much as possible to keep close to the truth. We set 90% truth as our standard. The purists in our circle strongly insisted for a while that truth can never be measured in percentage. To them it was either truth or lie. Now looking back, I regret that I never stood by them. Now I realize that the Marcos dictatorship would have been overthrown anyway even without the "half-truths" that we peddled. Up to now those "half-truths" have remained a source of debilitating disunity among Filipinos.

"The rumor on Erap is he will be sent to the States for a medical check-up since he is seriously ill, then he will not be allowed to come back to the Philippines anymore, so Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo will take over as president***. They say this is a graceful exit for Erap, and should result in a smooth transition since the constitution is not violated as the VP elect takes over from an incapacitated president."

While the above qualifies the story as a "rumor" it comes close to the fact that there is a plan for President Estrada to visit the **US officially. For some reasons, no final arrangements have been agreed upon by both governments on that visit until now prompting some fertile minds to draw a scenario casting again the US as the super intervenor in Philippine affairs. I remember that another e-mailed rumor said that the US forces that went to the Philippines for the recent joint military exercises under the Visiting Forces Agreement were really intended to police the transition of power in the country from Erap to his US-picked successor. The scenario where Erap will not be allowed to go back to the Philippines because of serious illness was similar to the scenario we floated with respect to Marcos when he became seriously ill as revealed to us by no less than those attending to him at various hospitals and secret clinics. At that time Marcos was just surviving with the help of life-support machines and the Marcos people were already panicking. Marcos was at that time practically dying. Can the same be said with Erap?

"Even Greg Honasan was heard telling some of his friends that Erap would be out before this year ends and would be sent to the States."

The reference to Honasan could have been intended to drag the RAM plus its derivative, the YOU, and indirectly even the upcoming soldier militants, the so-called Katipuneros, into the scenario. Honasan is part of the administration party and most of his PMA classmates now occupy top positions in the national police. The RAM has entered into a peace agreement with the government and will unlikely lead another coup in the foreseeable future.

"Frankly, this is the best thing that can happen to the Philippines right now, since Erap only has a 5% approval rating*, and the disillusionment with him cuts across all class segments, including the "C" and "D" classes."

The above illustrates the usual practice of using published statistical figures to give the impression that the originator of the message was being objective and truthful.

"The sad part is, the other countries in Asia are starting to recover strongly from the 1997 crises, while the Philippines is again lagging behind and investors are shying away from the Philippines because of concerns about the lack of direction of the Philippine government due to lack of leadership. As long as Erap is around, investors will continue avoiding the Philippines. This is the last chance for the country to catch up with its Asian neighbors, otherwise the Philippines will remain forever the sick man of Asia."

The above was culled from the general line that detractors of Erap have been following in their daily attack against his administration. It is intended to give the impression that the originator is well abreast of the politico-economic developments in the Philippines.

"This is also one reason why I have been encouraging my children to take courses that will enable them to get jobs abroad, since they all have to immigrate if they want to raise families. The Philippines is not a good place to raise families anymore because of the prevalence of crime, corruption, immorality and lack of values."

The above provides the appeal to the emotions, this time, of family heads. This is very effective among Filipinos who maintain close family ties and always give priority to the welfare of their family members. The appeal to the emotions is a basic component of black propaganda and the most abused. During our time, we pictured the Philippines like hell under Marcos rule. It was like hell where people were cowed by the onslaught of Marcos dictatorship. But we had the EDSA revolt that redeemed the Filipinos and gave them something to be proud of. We were even emulated in many parts of the globe where tyranny and injustice reigned. Without EDSA, the tag of "a country of one son-of-a-bitch and 40 million cowards" would have stuck to the Philippines for a long time. The problem with this particular aspect of black propaganda is its residual effect when nothing positive as grand as the EDSA revolt materializes. Considering that chances are Erap will finish his term as President, the black propaganda in question will only succeed in defaming the Philippines.

"One day, Erap was with his midnight cabinet drinking, and he got tired of all the jokes about his being dumb and stupid. So he said to his friends, "Ilan ang asawa ninyo?" They all answered, "Isa!" "Ako, anim and asawa ko, meron pa akong dalawang bago", he said. "May 40 billion pesos ba kayo?", he asked them."Sir, wala." his friends joined in. His close friends know that since he became president he has accumulated around 40 billion pesos from his share in smuggling, lagay, etc. "So sino ngayon ang bobo, ako o kayo!" Of course they had no choice but to say "sir, kami ang bobo dahil isa lang ang asawa namin, at wala kaming 40 billion pesos!" So at the end of the day, it is indeed Erap who is matalino and the rest of us 75 million Filipinos are "bobo" for having this sad state of affairs in the Philippines to happen."

The above represents the anecdote format intended to give the impression that the originator has inside information on Erap. Believing the amount of 40 billion pesos stashed in Erap’s personal coffers will greatly depend on how the reader was carried away by the appeal to the emotions started earlier in the message and followed up by touching on the more popular promiscuity issue against Erap. Now we are a country of one "matalino" and 75 million "bobos." Agree or disagree? If you are "bobo" then Erap has indeed amassed 40 billion pesos for himself. If you are not then you are "matalino" enough to know what is truth and what is trash.

*"Estrada Still Popular In rural Areas"
by: Julius Fortuna (East and West) Philippine Post
March 21, 2000

"There must really be a big discrepancy between opinions in the city and in the rural areas.A friend told me the President was still loved by the rural folk of Licab, Nueva Ecija during the inauguration of seven agrarian communities there.

"In the urban areas, the President is pilloried by the media and the elite -- and this is reflected in surveys. 'But in Licab, the people mobbed him, just like during the campaign,' said my friend who was with the entourage of agrarian reform chief Horacio Morales.

"My friend told me that the presidential style of Estrada is different, very personal. During the consultation with the 100 poorest families, the President went straight to the point. When a family head said he needed some money to repair something, the President gave him P10,000. Other presidents would have referred the matter to the Department of Social Welfare and Development."

**23 March 2000
Agence France-Presse

Manila, March 23 (AFP) - US Assistant Secretary of State Stanley Roth warned Thursday that unseating Philippine President Joseph Estrada would be a step "backwards" but dismissed the chances of a military coup as "zero."

"I see no evidence to suggest that the Philippine military is contemplating it," Roth, the top State Department official in charge of East Asia and Pacific Affairs, told a Asia Society meeting here.

The Filipino leader has been forced in recent weeks to deny persistent coup rumors amid a precipitous fall in his popularity rating and growing allegations of corruption and rudderless leadership in his nearly two year-old rule.

The US Air Force in December 1989 helped put down the last of seven bloody coup attempts against former Philippine president Corazon Aquino, who took power in 1986 after a bloodless "people power" revolt that unseated the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos in February 1986.

"I have every confidence in the Filipino people that they would not put up with it, having lived through the people’s power revolution of 1986, and I just don’t think that the Philippines is going backwards," Roth said.

The US official said he was "not in any way disputing" perceptions that the Philippines has economic and political problems, "but that’s very different from saying that democracy is at risk."

"What you’re really saying is that democracy has to do better in coping with the problem. I think that’s up to the Philippine political leadership and the people, not the American officials."

Roth, who is calling on Estrada later Thursday, added: "I believe that democracy is firmly entrenched in the Philippines. I believe the chance of a military scenario that you described is zero."

He said he would "worry far more" about the "survival of democracy" in Cambodia or Indonesia than the Philippines.

He said he was personally predicting that Estrada would make a successful visit to the United States later this year.

***GMA staying on with Erap's team by: Mayen Jaymalin
Phlippine Star, March 23, 2000

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