Week 3 Preview

 

 

Meet the 49ers

Right around this time last year, the Eagles were coming off an embarrassing early-season loss in which they only managed to score once in the second half. They had to put that loss behind them right away and start preparing for the San Francisco 49ers. One year and a week later, we find ourselves in the same position. The good news is that last year, the Eagles decimated the Niners 42-3 in a game that had everything a fan could ask for: a franchise-record 583 yards of offense, 5 touchdown passes from Donovan McNabb, and even an extra point from Mark Simoneau. The bad news is the 49ers, who currently stand at 1-1 with a 34-27 loss to Arizona and a 20-13 win over the Rams, might actually show up and play this year.

 

The San Francisco offense has put up some big numbers in the first two weeks. Look at the NFL leader boards and you’ll see that the number four rusher is Frank Gore (214 yards). The second-year running back is also tied for the lead in touchdowns with three and his 4.8 yards per carry ranks ahead of Rudi Johnson, LaDanian Tomlinson, and Shaun Alexander to name a few. Gore has 8 catches (tied for team lead) for 93 yards on the young season. With two solid weeks under his belt, Gore has emerged as the Niners’ go-to guy when they want short yardage, not to mention a trendy fantasy back. However, one reason Gore gets a lot of yards because San Francisco is one of a diminishing number of teams that feature only one running back. Gore also gets excellent blocking; last week, he found big holes for big yards (127) despite a line that lost both left side starters, Jonas Jennings and Pro Bowler Larry Allen, in the first half.

 

The league’s number three receiver is Antonio Bryant (245 yards). After a breakout year in Cleveland, Bryant signed with the Niners and has made an immediate impact as the primary receiver and big playmaker. He already has two catches of 40 or more yards, highlighted by a 72-yard touchdown last week where he torched two Rams defensive backs.

 

Second-year quarterback Alex Smith is not to be forgotten here. A different, more mature Smith has emerged this year. His 93.5 rating is well above last year’s 40.8, and with two TD passes on the young season he has doubled his total from last year. His bomb to Bryant showed that Smith is capable of throwing with great arm strength and high velocity. Most importantly, Smith is beginning to earn the respect of the veterans in the huddle. Bryant commented, “He’s calming down. I’m not saying he’s as calm as he needs to be, but his poise is coming.” Bryant and Gore are Smith’s favorite targets, but tight end Vernon Davis and wide receiver Arnaz Battle also get the ball thrown their way fairly often.

 

It is very difficult to assess the defense after the first two weeks because they have faced two offenses with similar weapons (compare the Warner-James-Fitzgerald-Boldin combination with Bulger-Jackson-Holt-Bruce) but with different results. For example, the 49ers are susceptible to the pass; Kurt Warner threw for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns, but the next week they held “Big Play” Torry Holt to just 30 yards on 5 catches.

What we do know is that coordinator Billy Davis runs a 3-4 scheme, which the Eagles last prepared for in their final preseason game against the Steelers. The Niners’ nine sacks rank third in the league.

 

The Eagles return to San Francisco for the first time since 2002, when Koy Detmer played the game of his life only to be injured and replaced by A.J. Feeley in a 38-17 victory.

 

What to watch for on Sunday

A game that we thought would be a gimme when the schedule was released has some unexpected significance. First, the 49ers are not the disaster we expected them to be but look like at least a .500 team so far. Second, the Eagles need a win here to regain some confidence and get the media off their back after last week’s collapse. The stakes are high for the Niners, too; a win coupled with a Seattle loss would send them into a three-way tie for first in an NFC West that still has no clear favorites.

 

When the Eagles have the ball

It may be only week three, but the injuries are already piling up for the Eagles. The biggest question mark of the week is running back Brian Westbrook. Westbrook, listed as questionable, has been missing practice time this week but still has a good chance of playing. It remains to be seen if his playing time will be limited or if he is comfortable enough to be effective. L.J. Smith, who briefly left the game last week, was upgraded to probable on Thursday. L.J. had himself an incredible game last week, and will be looking to improve upon his performance.

 

The other big question is how good the San Francisco defense really is. As mentioned above, they surrendered 34 points to a decent Arizona offense in week one, and gave up 13 to the struggling Rams last week. We can expect the Eagles to come out focused and competitive, so this game will be a good indicator of whether the Niners can compete with the league’s top offenses.

 

The primary concern should be protecting Donovan McNabb. San Francisco has had success getting to quarterbacks, and the line will need to keep guys likes 49er standout Bryant Young from hitting number 5 and deflecting passes, especially if McNabb intends to get the ball to Smith and Westbrook.  The Eagles have so far shown a commitment to running the ball more, which is very great to see. With Westbrook hurt however, expect to see Moats and Buckhalter get more carries. The Giants did a good job shutting down the Eagles run game. However as many teams (including the Eagles) have proved, as long as you can keep the defense off guard with a balanced attack, an offense can be very effective and productive.

 

Donte Stallworth, long criticized for being inconsistent, has managed to string together two productive games and seems primed for another. Stallworth has been great this year, though he has dropped a few passes in the early going. Donte is a stand up guy who is his own toughest critic when it comes to things like dropped passes. No matter how you look at it, the combination of McNabb and Stallworth has drawn much positive attention and rightly so as it appears us Eagle fans have a lot to look forward to.

 

Ultimately, the Eagles must keep the Niners on their toes with big plays and sustained drives. We need to frustrate the defense and exploit their tendency to take penalties (17 accepted in the first 2 games).

 

When the 49ers have the ball

The depleted Eagle secondary will be under the microscope again this week after giving up 10 plays of 20 yards or more the first two weeks, and nobody will be tested more than Sheldon Brown, who will spend the day covering Bryant. The 5’10” Brown was overmatched last week against Plaxico Burress (114 yards, TD), and the 49ers will try to pick on Brown if they sense a similar mismatch. The Eagles should double-team Bryant and challenge San Francisco’s other wideouts (Battle and Bryan Gilmore are the only other WRs with catches) to make plays. This will only work if Brian Dawkins continues to make good hits and unproven Joselio Hanson turns in a better performance than last week. Also, Michael Lewis needs to step it up Lewis has had himself a rough 2006 thus far. It is really important for the Eagles and for Lewis’s mental state that he has a good game. The Eagles also have a new member of their secondary in Dustin Fox whom they signed from the practice squad. In the past two weeks, the only consistent member of the secondary has been the Hammer, #20 Brian Dawkins. Dawkins is one of two of the more emotional veterans on the defense (the other being Jeremiah Trotter) and has done a superb job this year. Sheldon has been inconsistent and has much to prove. The Eagles success in this game, as well as the games to come will be their secondary being able to cover the big play.

 

If the Eagles do take away the Niners’ big-play options on the outside, they will still need to deal with Gore and Davis in the middle. Alex Smith owes a lot of his success to Gore; with the reliable back to hand off or dump a short pass to, Smith is less prone to make a bad pass or get picked. The Eagles’ task will be to quickly close up lanes that the line creates for Gore and make good first tackles to limit Gore to 3 or 4 yards per carry instead of 4 or 5. This will force the Niners to face lots of third-down situations, where they have been terrible (5 for 21) this year. The Eagle D has been successful against tight ends (opponents have just 4 catches) so far, so Davis won’t be much of a factor.

 

The Eagles defensive line begins the post-Jevon Kearse era against a deep 49er line that has battled its share of injuries, too. This week, Darren Howard moves over to Kearse’s spot at left end and Trent Cole gets the start on the right, but don’t expect Jim Johnson’s eight-man rotation to change much except for Jerome McDougle to be plugged in as the eighth man. The unit has produced 12 sacks and shouldn’t suffer from the loss of Kearse. On the other side, the Niners are still without Allen but should return Jennings at left tackle. Gore will not be afraid to run behind either side of his line. 

 

Special Teams

Long snapper Mike Bartrum has yet to practice this week. He sustained what Andy Reid called a knee injury. If Bartrum does not play, which it appears he won’t, expect DE Darren Howard to do the long snapping for the Eagles. As far as kicking, both teams appear to be pretty solid.

 

Prediction: Eagles 24, 49ers 17