Week 16 Preview

Get reacquainted with the Cowboys

 

Since the Eagles and Cowboys last met on October 8, Dallas has gone 7-3, highlighted by a four-game winning streak in November. All of a sudden, Bill Parcells and his ’Boys are getting national attention for their on-field exploits, not just their off-field shenanigans. The shenanigans are still there, but now Dallas is a legitimate candidate to win the NFC title. Earlier this week, four Cowboys were named to the NFC Pro Bowl squad. Quarterback Tony Romo, punter Mat McBriar, safety Roy Williams, and linebacker DeMarcus Ware are slated to travel to Honolulu in a few weeks. That can wait, though; the stories leading up to this Christmas Day contest are vital to Andy Reid’s game plan.

 

First and foremost is the ascent of Romo from career backup to Pro Bowler, all in just under two months. Romo enters week 16 as the league’s number two passer behind only Peyton Manning. Since taking over as the starter, Romo has thrown 13 touchdowns and 7 interceptions and proved himself more dependable than Drew Bledsoe. Romo also favors Terrell Owens, as opposed to Bledsoe who made his old friend Terry Glenn the number one target. This role reversal has ebbed T.O.’s midweek antics – that is, he isn’t complaining about his time on the field.

 

Unfortunately for the Dallas organization, Owens has not been able to keep his mouth shut otherwise. Whether admitting to sleeping in team meetings or spitting in opponents’ faces, T.O. managed to talk his way out of this year’s Pro Bowl. His receiving numbers (1040 yards, league-high 11 TD) rank among the best in the NFL, but he also has a tendency to drop balls due to a bad hand. Glenn is still a deep threat, and still hauls in at least four catches a game with Romo under center. In fact, Glenn has more receiving yards than Owens in the last two games, but Owens is still the clear favorite in the end zone.

 

Julius Jones paces the Cowboys’ ground game, and has one of the league’s most effective backups in Marion Barber III. Jones has passed the 1,000 yard mark for the season and stayed healthy all year, while Barber’s 13 rushing touchdowns tie him with the Chiefs’ Larry Johnson for second in the league. Jones is also a legitimate receiving threat out of the backfield.

 

Meanwhile, the defense has been good enough to win but gets exposed on occasion. The New Orleans Saints embarrassed them two weeks ago to the tune of five touchdown passes and 536 total yards of offense. There are a few standouts, such as the aforementioned Williams and Ware, but depth seems to be an issue. Losing outside linebacker Greg Ellis for the season in November represents a huge blow to the defense. Opponents no longer have to deal with the 1-2 punch of Ware and Ellis, so Ware will get most of the attention. Temple product Al Singleton has moved into Ellis’s starting spot.

 

Perhaps the greatest reason for the Cowboys’ success this year is their head coach, Bill Parcells. Parcells took the risk of sending Romo in, and it paid off. Parcells has also been a master of managing the precocious personalities surrounding him, especially Jerry Jones and Terrell “the player” Owens. Parcells appears unfazed by the media circus that surrounds his team every week, and does not let the hype or “the player” get in his other players’ heads.

 

The Eagles are 4-2 in Irving since 2000. Their most recent loss was a 33-10 rout last October in which the only Philadelphia touchdown came from a Sheldon Brown fumble return.

 

What to expect on Monday

Texas Stadium will have a playoff atmosphere this Christmas. This is the biggest game of the year for both teams; the high stakes add to the intense existing rivalry. The Cowboys can clinch the division title and a home playoff game with a win. If the Eagles win, they clinch a playoff berth and the tiebreaker with Dallas, giving them a chance to claim the division next week. And as long as we’re talking about it, the Giants may have already earned a playoff spot (they need to beat New Orleans) before things get underway on Monday. So the incentive is there for both teams; not to mention that Jeff Garcia will be on the same field as the player who drove him out of San Francisco. The Eagles have thrived in hostile environments this month, so they should not be intimidated or hampered by the noise. With major question marks (and playmakers) on both defenses, this holiday tilt will be a wild free-for-all, and should come down to who can make more big plays at opportune times.

 

When the Eagles have the ball

Since Jeff Garcia took over, Eagles fans have been treated to superb decision-making and composure from the quarterback position. The Cowboys and the extra pressure will test all elements of Garcia’s game. Garcia has not faced a game with playoff implications like this since his days in San Francisco. The Giants game was a good indicator that Garcia won’t have a problem keeping his composure; with the vulnerable secondary the Cowboys have (see the New Orleans game), Garcia will not have trouble finding his receivers and getting his completions. The caveat is that the Eagles must also run the football to sustain their drives.

 

Brian Westbrook will be asked to do a lot of the heavy lifting on Monday. He will need to make his cuts wisely and possibly go up the middle more to evade the Cowboys’ DeMarcus Ware, a defensive end in linebacker’s clothing, and Roy Williams, who isn’t afraid to deliver a big (or dirty) hit. “Fragile” is often used to describe Westbrook, and he cannot let the big hits get to him. The Eagles’ run game was downright pathetic in October; Westbrook managed just 33 yards on 11 carries and Correll Buckhalter had 16 on 4 attempts. With Marty Mornhinweg holding the playbook this week, that shouldn’t happen again. He would do well to take a page from Sean Payton’s game plan two weeks ago, which featured a 38:36 pass to run ratio and picked on the defense’s weak points, and included a heavy dose of Deuce McAllister. Still, it will take a heroic effort from the backfield to wear the defense out and win the time of possession battle.

 

When the Cowboys have the ball

The biggest challenge for the Eagle defense, as usual, will be stopping the run. This department saw some improvement in the second half last week. The critical matchup will not be against Julius Jones, however; the Eagles have historically done a good job of limiting him, holding him under 100 yards and/or 4 yards per carry in each of his games against the Eagles. The real problem will be stopping Barber, especially on third down and goal-line situations. When he gets his opportunities, Barber will come in fresh against a tired defense and is always a threat to break off a 10+ or 20+ yard run. It will be interesting to watch Omar Gaither (and any other LBs who decide to show up) patrol the turf against the two-pronged attack and see if he can make the big tackles that keep the Dallas drives short.

 

The Eagles sacked Bledsoe nine times in October’s meeting. While they are unlikely to duplicate that total against the more elusive Romo, it will still be necessary to get sacks and generate consistent pressure. A quarterback like Romo can still get his passes off under pressure (and complete them). The pass rush needs to show up early and let Romo know that he cannot throw at will. Romo is prone to turnovers; in his eight and a half games, he has tossed 10 interceptions and fumbled 5 times. For those of you keeping score at home, that’s almost two turnovers a game. The Dallas O-line is just as responsible for the numerous sacks of Bledsoe as he was, though, as the Eagles were often able to penetrate the line of scrimmage untouched. Parcells has been pleased with his line’s development and communication over the last few games, so this game will be a good indicator of their improvement (or hopefully lack thereof).

 

Despite being burned by Plaxico Burress last week, the secondary should have little trouble shutting down the Cowboys’ dynamic duo of Glenn and Owens. For all the marquee receivers the Eagles have faced this year (Moss, Smith, Harrison, etc.), the last one to have a big game was Joe Horn (110 yards, 2 TD) back in week six when Michael Lewis was starting and Joselio Hanson was the nickel corner. The secondary will need to give the linebackers some extra help to shut down Julius Jones and tight end Jason Witten in the Cowboys’ short passing game.

 

Special Teams

Two of the league’s top punters will be on display on Monday. Pro Bowler Mat McBriar and the recently improving Dirk Johnson will play huge roles, as establishing good defensive field position could take away a few opponents’ touchdowns and even create a few defensive touchdowns. Rookie Miles Austin took over kickoff return duties for the Cowboys in November and ranks eighth in the league with a 25.9 yard return average.

 

Prediction: Cowboys 34  Eagles 27