23 January 1916
Dr. Helphand, who has returned to Copenhagen after spending three weeks in Stockholm, where he conferred with Russian revolutionaries, has told me the following, in confidence:
The sum of a million roubles which was put at his disposal, was immediately sent on, and has already reached Petrograd and been devoted to the purposes for which it was intended. Helphand insisted on beginning the action on 22 January. However, his confidential agents advised him against this with the utmost firmness, saying that immediate action would be premature, and painted the following picture of the present situation :
The decision of the organizations to launch into revolutionary action is still firm and unchanged, but, in the last two months, the political situation has altered in such a way that it now appears inadvisable to strike immediately.
The opposition of the bourgeois parties to a revolutionary rising has stiffened and is now, if anything, more determined than before. The government, too, has not been idle, and has certainly moved skillfully in an effort to counter the revolutionary movement. It has called several men who, before the war, were spokesmen of the revolutionaries to leading positions and has, in this way, considerably weakened the movement. Furthermore, it has taken measures to relieve the food shortage in Petrograd, which was threatening to become acute. Among other things, the passenger traffic between Petrograd and Moscow was stopped for a time to allow the rapid transport of food to Petrograd.
The most serious obstruction, however, is the attitude of the right wing, which would like to use a rising for its own purposes. In the revolutionary camp it is feared that, should there be a rising at this moment, the reactionaries would mingle with the ranks of the revolutionaries in order to give the movement the character of anarchy. The revolutionaries are not certain that they control the masses sufficiently to remain masters of the movement, should these masses get onto the streets. These are the considerations which are determining the postponement of the revolutionary rising until the moment when this certainty is realized.
The peace propaganda of the reactionaries is also compromising a rising which is intended to serve a revolutionary purpose. While all these factors are not regarded as strong enough to prevent a revolutionary rising, they are considered to be sufficiently important to make any premature rising inadvisable. It is not impossible that the summoning of the Duma may call forth further political conflicts and cause the revolutionary action to break out sooner than might be deduced from the present views of the leaders. Te leaders of the revolutionary movement now hold the view that, in the circumstances and if no unexpected change develops in the situation, it is essential to continue to adopt a waiting position, in order to be sure, not only of bringing sufficient masses onto the streets, but also of being able to maintain control of them at the moment the signal is given.
The parties on the right are inclined towards making peace, and it is also thought that the government could be brought to favour peace. The attitude of the Minister of the Interior, Chvostov, is uncertain. While he stands in the closest possible connexion with the reactionary parties, he has, in a confidential
conversation with leading personalities, said that he was �the foremost revolutionary of Russia� and that it was essential that Czar Nicholas be deposed. Chvostov arranged too be asked, at a session of a committee of the Duma, whether he was aware that there was a faction working for peace forming in Court circles. He answered that this was a false rumour and that he had expelled the person to whom it might refer, Mlle Vasilchikov, from Petrograd.
According to an extremely reliable source, the whole of the Entente Treaty was read out at the congress of the right-wing parties. On this occasion, particular attention was drawn to a clause stating that, in the event of the royal palaces being threatened by an enemy or of a revolution breaking out in the country, Russia would be free to conclude a separate peace. There is no doubt that this document was read out, but it remains questionable whether or not it was authentic.
BROCKDORFF-RANTZAU