Drunks Digest

Free Agency 2005 - by Joe Scanlon, includes quotes from GM Spracklin, GM Hardy, GM Visser, GM Harvie, GM Therres, GM Ommen, GM Wiebe, and GM Brown (in order of appearance)

Looking to bolster your lineup by adding a superstar or two? Well as you all know there is no better time than now to make it happen. The upcoming Free Agent market includes many big names and lots of available talent to help you out at any position.

Centers: Steve Yzerman - After splitting time with both the T-Rex and the Hum last season, Yzerman wants to sign somewhere he can expect to finish his career. Stevie Y has proven he can still play and be an excellent leader. Most likely will agree with a contending team on a 2-year deal.

Sergei Federov - Has chosen to leave the Fury, a team that looked built for his liking. Fedorov leaves behind Paul Kariya, Bill Guerin, as well as many others that could have made a winning team. Fury GM Bruce Spracklin spoke out against Sergei saying: "Good luck to him...ungrateful b*%*tard." Sprack reportidly offered him 14mill+ and added "He better not sign for less...or I will be very disappointed." Maybe Sergei wants his own team? Could Fedorov be planning a trip to Billings, Birmignham, or Washington? If offered a deal from a team that has no big superstar, I think thats where he'll be going, provided he gets his $$$. When asked about the possibility of signing Fedorov, Sabercats GM Marvin Hardy said: "The young Billings Sabercats organization would love to have a guy like Fedorov in the locker room. A veteran like him could really help turn our young guys into the leaders we know they will be." Fedorov will most likely be looking to ink a long-term deal.

Click here to read the rest of Joe's article....

As we prepare for the Free Agency season, one of our commsioners’ “Burning Questions” asks: Will 2005 be a return of high-priced free agent offers?

Well, this is a sticky wicket (for reasons that will become even more apparent when we answer the Burning Question about Joe Sakic’s salary) that depends on a whole bunch of X factors.

First, we have to find out if folks have the cash to buy free agents.

We have 3 teams flirting with the cap limit of 55 million (Spartans, Vipers, and Racer), another 8 over 40 million, 6 over 30 million, 8 over 20 million, and 7 under 20 million (with the Storm the only team under 10 million). So we have about 20 teams with at least 20 million dollars to spend on free agents. I think we can all agree that 20 million dollars would be considered high priced.

But the above stats assume a couple things. First, just because a team has 20 million dollars of cap room doesn’t mean they have 20 million dollars lying around. Some teams are cheap for purposes of rebuilding, some are cheap because they’re just starting out. But the expansion teams have a catch 22 of sorts. If they don’t sign a star, they won’t draw well, so they won’t have money to sign free agents in the future. But if they don’t have money to pay the players, they gamble on fiscal solubility. Even if they think they can draw a decent crowd, the pressure to have star players is more acute for the smaller clubs, which have more cash generally, which means they can afford to overpay, and at times need to overpay to ensure they land a player that can draw crowds. Here is where a lack of parity in the league becomes somewhat problematic, especially when coupled with lots of UFAs and RFAs (though lets be honest, RFAs cost too much long term). But without lots of UFAs, teams wouldn’t ever be able to get out of the cellar. I’m all for slowly rebuilding, and the pace of the league is great, but I don’t want to be the guy who’s 20 years older with genitals shrunken from the radiation of my clunky monitor waiting to see if Marek Svatos and Peter Sejna were worth the gamble.

So the multiple UFAs seem to be a necessary evil, and with a lot of them out there, the laws of supply and demand seem pretty equal. But supply and demand only works as a rule when smart economists prudently shake Adam Smith’s invisible hand. That is to say, the stock market works because folks (generally) spend wisely and within their limits and companies (generally) manage their markets. But supply and demand can get a little less controlling when we’re talking about kids in a candy store. When kids can’t check their own demand, they run out of cash quick, they’ve got no money to buy more candy, and the candy store collapses. So to some extent, the question of whether or not high-priced free agency returns is a condition of how crazy some teams go with their spending. Now I’m Spendy the Bear: Only you can prevent Inflation.

But as a collective of GMs we have two great benefits working against salary inflation.

First, we have knowledge of the past coupled with a deep and similar free agency pool. Joe Sakic’s salary of 21 million is a franchise killer. With only 34 million fins left over for 24 other players, it’s difficult enough to field a team, let alone a team of useful players. But there are no Joe Sakic’s available. There are plenty of solid and good players, but no real superstars pushing the 90ov mark. So understanding what a high priced salary can do to a team, and understanding the lack of true high-end talent, it seems unlikely we’ll see many contracts tendered over the 10 million dollar mark, and if we do, remember how easily the candy store can collapse.

We also have the player agent, Mssr. Joho. It seems to me that Joho has been using a promising system infused with reality that makes the signing process up to a series of factors that largely depends on cash, but can be swayed by other factors (winning percentage and destination, etc.). With these new fudge factors, and given the large group of teams competing for players, these factors become increasingly important.

But finally, we must go through a bit of game theory to understand what will happen with free agency. We essentially have a prison dilemma. When two thieves are being question, they run the risk of being accused by the other, so they are urged to tattle early. But if they’ve played the game and both keep quiet, they’ll be let off. Similarly, we all have just read that we think 10 million might be the limit, so if one person goes 11, he’s likely to get his man, but that salary really screws things up for his team, and in the long run for the league (look at how many GMs have fallen under the burden of Joe-Joe’s pay-stub).

So stay strong fellow prisoners, and bid wisely and I think we can avoid the 10-plus payday. Of course in a real league, a letter like this to all GMs before free agency would be called collusion and we’d all go to real jail…if that were to happen, Frank Lewis is the guy to blame, but since we’re in fantasy land, I’m Brett Ommen.