The Nepali Congress Split: A Positive Development
Paramendra Bhagat
June 25, 2002

1. The Maoist insurgency is the number one crisis in the country, has been for years now. It can not be solved through parliamentary motions. Only a military solution awaits. If not to end it, at least to contain it, and to possibly bring the leftover insurgents into the political realm. And that course has been opposed by Koirala. Koirala has no solutions. No alternative ideas.
2. It would have been great if the emergency need not have been extended, if the work by the army had been accomplished in six months. That not being the case, more time was needed for the work. It would have been great if the parliament would have come around to extending the emergency. But then maybe not. You would have had a parliament but no sessions. Free salaries for all those parliamentarians for as far as the eyes could see. What for? The parliament dissolved, the country saves some money.
3. The fear of the Panchayat regime coming back has no ground. The monarch will dare not turn the constitutional into an absolute monarchy. The tide will never turn.
4. As for the Congress not coming back to power, as will likely happen, that probably is good news. Definitely for me. The Sadbhavana will gain big in the Terai because of the Congress split. The democracy will evolve into a multi-party from a two-party democracy. Maybe the UML will gain a majority. Maybe not. Perhaps the UML will be the largest party but without a majority. There will be two smaller Congress parties. And a much larger Sadbhavana, with perhaps 20 seats. That will create some interesting arithmetic. The agenda of social justice will gain steam.
5. New blood. Girija is over. He has no ideas. People, move on.
6. The only downside I see is some of the corrupt people around Deuba. Like Khum Bahadur Khadka and Bijay Kumar Gachhedar. Will they be feasting unchecked all the way to the elections? Gobbling state funds and commissions? Deuba has never proven he can check that.