| 2002 AFC Predictions |
| by Mike Joerndt Neenah, Wisconsin |
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Everyone else has an opinion. Chances are, my guess is as good as anybody's when it comes to the 2002 NFL season. In the last three years, the Patriots, Ravens and Rams proved that the experts are terrible at even predicting which teams will make the playoffs, say nothing of who will win the Super Bowl. Now that I've demolished the credentials of the "experts" I'm free to make predictions on this season, rank amateur that I am. Special thanks go to The Sporting News, SportsTicker and ESPN for giving me a jumping point on these predictions: facts I didn't have and predictions with which I could vehemently disagree. This year will be more interesting with realignment, which will be terrific for the league. It managed to keep many long-standing rivals together and will develop excellent new rivalries. And while it isn't perfect, it makes much more geographic sense than the old divisions. Just as the league has divided itself into eight new divisions, I will divide my predictions accordingly. This article will examine the AFC. My NFC predictions will follow in another article. AFC East Like the previous two Super Bowl champions, I suspect the Patriots will suffer a huge let-down following their victory. I am convinced Drew Bledsoe is still the better quarterback than Tom Brady, and Patriots back-up Damon Huard is even worse. Look for the luster to wear off on their 2001 bargain-basement acquisitions. The Jets plan to open up their offense this year, and they've locked key players Wayne Chrebet and Curtis Martin into new contracts. The problem is two-fold: Vinny Testaverde is still their quarterback, and they are still the New York Jets. On the defensive side, New York has a handful of great players surrounding average players. Injuries could kill the Jets. The Bills picked up a big piece of the puzzle by acquiring Drew Bledsoe, but their talented wide receiver corps won't make up for a weakness at running back and an awful defense. Bledsoe has the ability to win games on his own, so look for Buffalo's season to be one of shootouts. And enjoy the transition to a darker blue in their uniforms. The Dolphins will benefit greatly with new running back Ricky Williams. With Norv Turner as their new offensive coordinator, a powerful ball-carrier coupled with a solid defense will give them an edge in this division. Predicted order of finish: Miami, New York, Buffalo, New England. AFC West Golly, but the Raiders have a great group of wide receivers. Jerry Rice and Tim Brown will have great seasons once again. If Tyrone Wheatley can stay healthy, he may provide a punishing ground game to keep opponents honest. The Raider's defense may be an Achilles heel. And I would say that even if I didn't hate Bill Romanowski with every fiber of my being. Some folks think the Broncos could overtake the Raiders this year, but I doubt it. First, Brian Greise is a vastly overrated quarterback. Next, the offensive line has something to prove: mostly that they aren't a bunch of dirty cheaters. I don't think Denver will miss Terrell Davis, as they have other strong running backs. Denver will win games on the foot of kicker Jason Elam, but they could lose them with a suspect defensive backfield. The Chiefs have a terrific running back in Priest Holmes. It probably won't be enough though. Trent Green throws too many interceptions and the defense is bad in every aspect. In San Diego, quarterback Doug Flutie has just about worn out his welcome. That's just as well, as he peaks too early in the season. New starter Drew Brees is unproven though, which should make Charger fans rather nervous. San Diego has good running backs, but not great ones. I don't know how many games the Chargers will win, but their defense will probably win them. If only rookie cornerback Quentin Jammer didn't start his career with a holdout. Predicted order of finish: Oakland, Denver, Kansas City, San Diego. AFC North This division alone demonstrates the advantages of the realignment: a bloated, six-team AFC Central was just annoying and made very little geographical sense. Plus, the AFC North protected some of the conference's best rivalries. Pittsburgh will continue its tradition of finding more-than-adequate replacements after losing key players. The wide receiver position will get a big boost from former Falcon Terance Mathis, which could make the Steeler's passing game as scary as their running game. In Cleveland, it is time for the Browns to finally take advantage of their young, high-end draft picks and put together a winning season. Upgrades to the offensive line will help. The Brown's defense is already very strong and will build on its successes last year. Some analysts see playoff potential in the Bengals, but I have no idea why. While they have a good run defense and a great run offense, they have a poor pass defense. Oh, and no real quarterbacks. The Ravens continue their downward slide. Baltimore made up for massive player departures by putting together a new defensive scheme that can only benefit linebacker Ray Lewis. The problem is the team has a weak passing game, and oft-injured running back Jamal Lewis has no viable back-up. Predicted order: Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Baltimore, Cincinnati. AFC South The Colts will improve drastically from last year. I don't know that head coach Jim Mora deserved to be fired, but I have the utmost respect for defensive wizard Tony Dungy. He should have an immediate impact on Indy's awful defense. If Edgerrin James stays healthy, he will have another 1,000-yard season and lessen the burden on Petyon Manning. He really is a good quarterback, despite last year. The Titans are still a decent team, but I'm not convinced Eddie George is back to his 1999 or 2000 form. Teams can't run against Tennessee's defense, but they can pass against it. That may not be enough for Jacksonville to overcome losing Tony Boselli, who protected Mark Brunell better than anybody in a Jaguars uniform this year. Jag's running back Fred Taylor is fragile. The best thing Jacksonville has going for them this year is a defensive line that should spend a lot of time in opponents' backfields. This is a building year for the Houston Texans. The team is long on young, inexperienced players. They look to be competitive in a couple years. In short, they are taking the Jaguar's path to expansion team success, not the Panther's. Predicted order: Indianapolis, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Houston. |
| Next Week from Mike Joerndt: NFC Predictions |