Critical Social Spending Falls
By Nadeem Malik
Islamabad: Despite all the claims and rhetorics of poverty alleviation, the spending on critical sectors, like education, health and population spending, has declined in relation to GDP during July-March period.
The official data under the Poverty Reduction and Strategy Paper (PRSP) released by the Ministry of Finance indicates some increases in absolute figures, but when compared with the GDP size (a standard yardstick to measure various economic indicators), there has been decline in real terms. Spending on education declined from 1.2 percent of GDP to 1.14 percent, health from 0.31 percent to 0.29 percent and population welfare from 0.05 to 0.04 percent of GDP. The amount spent on food subsidies also dropped.
The government has identified about 17 different sectors, which are considered critical for the social sector development of the country. A total of Rs 278 billion spending was planned during 2004-05, which was explained in a policy document called PRSP. A high level meeting presided over by Dr. Salman Shah, Advisor to Prime Minister on Finance and Economic Affairs, also decided to update this document, with a specific focus on job creation. Almost one-third of the population lives below the poverty line, while the rate of unemployment is close to 7.8 percent. The government has recent claimed improved employment situation in the country, but only be showing higher number of employed persons in the category of ‘unpaid family workers.’
The official labour force survey 2003-04, released earlier this year, shows cumulative job creation since 2001-02 at 2.9 million, the category of unpaid family workers has bolstered the headline figure by 1.97 million. Adjusted for this category, only 0.9 million new jobs were officially created between FY02 and FY04. The government has shown increase in the unpaid family helpers from 8.11 million in 2001-02 to 10.08 million in 2003-04. “Even though there is evidence of a rising pace of job creation this year, as domestic fixed asset investment gathers momentum, the government has been under increasing political pressure to pull a rabbit from its hat,” a report of the ABN-Amro Bank maintained.
The data shows actual spending during first nine months at Rs 192.5 billion, about 69.23 percent of the full year target. Utilization of the education budget is about 72 percent, while health and population welfare lags behind at merely 50 percent plus levels.
The report, however, claims that some health sector indicators have shown improvement during the period under review. The TT immunization coverage for pregnant has improved, including: TT-1 coverage during January-March improved by 3 percentage points to 39 percent; and TT2+ coverage improved by 4 percentage points to 42 percent over the same period in FY04. “The coverage is low and need ample increase. There is substantial improvement in immunization coverage in FATA, AJK and slightly in Punjab, Sindh and NWFP, while immunization coverage in Balochistan, FANA, ICT and CDA has deteriorated during the third half of FY05 relative to same period in FY04.
Data on judiciary shows, the proportion of disposed cases in Lahore High Court declined over the years from 60 percent in 2002 to 54 percent in 2004. However, number of cases disposed in session and civil cases show slight increase during this period. The subordinate judiciary in Balochistan shows an increase in the number of instituted cases but a decrease in number of disposed of cased in absolute as well as percentage terms. The district courts of NWFP province shows percentage of disposed cases increased to 72 percent in 2004, from 66 percent in 2002. In the Peshawar High court, the percentage of disposed of cases declined to 54 percent in 2004, from 64 percent in 2002.
The report has also included data of the social and living standards survey (PSLM 2004-05). It shows gross enrolment at primary level has increased by 14 percentage points to 86 percent in 2004-05 over 2000-01. Net enrolment at primary level increased to 52 percent in 2004-05 as compared to 42 percent in FY01. Literacy rate (aged 10 years and older) improved by 8 percentage points to 53 percent in 2004-05 compared to 2000-01. Both male and female literacy levels have improved, but the female literacy level is 25 percentage points lower than male literacy level.
However, the adult literacy (population 15 years and older) improved to 50 percent in 2004-05, compared to 43 percent in 2000-01. Adult literacy increased by 6 percentage points in both urban and rural areas.
The proportion of children aged 12-23 months immunized has increased to 77 percent in 2004-05 compared to 53 percent in 2000-01. This indicator has shown improvement in rural areas, as there has been an improvement of 26 percentage points to 72 percent in 2004-05 over 2000-0, according to the report.
The report has also mentioned the rising growth rate in Pakistan, coupled witth rising prices. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation averaged 9.3 percent during July-April FY05, against the original target of 5 percent during FY05.
“Rising demand, shortage of essential food items like wheat, pulses, meat and sugar, rising house rents and high oil prices put pressure on general price level in the first 10 months of FY05,” the report observed. Indicating recent measures of controlling monetary expansion, the report said non-core components of CPI inflation will need to be addressed more through administrative rather than monetary policy measures.
ENDS.
