So...

I got banned from ogame for a day because I said a naughty word at
another player in a private message while telling him to back off
and stop attacking one of my mates in my alliance. And, as it turns
out, I'm banned right as I'm about to set up an interception of his
attempt to blow up my moon.

So I think my fleet is exactly where I want it to be (depending on
whether the missions I sent will be completed while the ban is in
effect), it's just there 15 hours too early so odds are good he'll
probe again and recall, or come in greater force. Either that, or
odds are also fairly good that someone else will probe and see my
fleet parked on my mostly undefended moon and swoop in for the kill.

But I'm not sure--I thought I heard "banned mode" was basically the
same as "vacation mode," other than being involuntary, of course.
Except you start losing points or something if you're banned for a
long time. And I think I read that if there's an attack inbound on
one of your planets when you enter V-mode, it still hits, just no
one can launch new attacks on you.

So, assuming all this is true, my opponent has the choice of
1) letting the attack go through and running 2 sequential 80% risks
of being annihilated (the first from the combat, the second from the
moon destruction mission) or
2) recalling and being unable to attack until I'm back in action, in
which case I'll do the same thing with my fleet.

Being optimistic, I predict:
1. My main battle fleet will arrive back as scheduled (I was banned
35 minutes before it was due back) and sit on the planet for 15
hours.
2. Hey, he might not be able to probe me! That would be awesome :-)
3. The attack hits.
4. The odds I ran in SpeedSim say it's virtually impossible his DS
will survive both the combat and the moon destruction attempt (i.e.,
mission accomplished (for me)).
5. I will be unbanned at 1:something in the morning local time, and
anybody who probes my moon will see what's left of my fleet. I'm not
making any predictions about *that* ;-)