by Michael Cieply, Inside.com
Rankings on the Inside Line are calculated daily, based on a contender's pedigree, awards, reviews, press, promotional campaign and buzz.
Serious Oscarologists will know that an important milestone passed into history last weekend: for the first time, four of the five Best Picture nominees have grossed more than $100 million at the domestic box office.
Coincidentally, both Traffic (No. 3 on the Inside Line, with 459.2 points) and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (No. 2, with 467.3 points) crossed the hundred million dollar marker at roughly the same time. Crouching took in $4 million this weekend, pushing its total to $100.3 million, according to final studio figures, while Traffic grossed $3.4 million, boosting its total to $102.5 million.
Top-ranked Gladiator, with over $186 million at the box office (and 512.6 points), and fourth-ranked Erin Brockovich, with more than $125 million in ticket sales (and 394.2 points), had long ago earned their blockbuster stripes. Only fifth-ranked Chocolat, with $55.8 million (and 297.3 points) appears unlikely to join the club.
This won't be the highest-grossing collection of contenders in history: Titanic's $600 million in ticket sales was more than all five of this year's nominees have made to date, and the 1997 nominees included two additional hundred million grossing films, As Good As It Gets and Good Will Hunting.
Still, this suddenly looks like a very rich year for the top contenders, especially considering the Oscar boost that awards might still bring some films. Ticket-price inflation, of course, accounts for much growth in the numbers. Even allowing for an annual bump in prices, however, something appears to have shifted -- either consumers are flocking to pictures with Oscar prospects in particularly large numbers, or the Academy has decided to go with the box-office winners.
Almost Famous, which got stuck in the $30 million zone, and Wonder Boys, which grossed under $20 million in two releases, certainly got no traction with voters; high-grossing Gladiator, meanwhile, stormed to the front of the line.
Until now, the Academy has always made room in the Best Picture rolls for at least one, and more often two or even three films that grossed less than $50 million in the U.S. Indeed, the voters have proudly recognized a long succession of ''beautiful losers,'' pictures with far lower ticket sales than they appeared to deserve. One thinks of The Insider, Elizabeth, Thin Red Line, Fargo, Secrets & Lies, Shine, Il Postino, Quiz Show, The Shawshank Redemption, In the Name of the Father, Remains of the Day, Howard's End, Bugsy, Awakenings, My Left Foot, and so on.
This year, the losers simply lost. Of course, this could mean the public is finally responding to class, and turning out in droves to see the best films Hollywood has to offer. Or it may mean that box-office success is the new standard for success at Oscar time.
The next few years will surely tell.
� 2001 Inside.com