AP Movie Writer David Germain and Entertainment Writer Christy Lemire predict who will win — and suggest who should win — in top Academy Awards categories on March 24:
Nominees: A Beautiful Mind, Gosford Park, In the Bedroom, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, Moulin Rouge
Germain:
Should win: Moulin Rouge, a cinematic kaleidoscope that runs the dramatic spectrum from slapstick to romantic comedy to high tragedy.
Will win: A Beautiful Mind, a worthy film, and the safe and conventional bet in a field of more adventurous competitors.
Lemire:
Should win: In the Bedroom, the best movie of 2001 because it had the biggest emotional impact. Stunning performances in a moving story, simply and powerfully told.
Will win: A Beautiful Mind. Everyone can agree on it: an inspiring film based on a true story with strong performances, and nothing too weird that would split Oscar voters.
Nominees: Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind; Ridley Scott, Black Hawk Down; Robert Altman, Gosford Park; Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring; David Lynch, Mulholland Drive
Germain:
Should win: Altman, for roaring back from a fitful couple of decades with a deviously funny satire that has a dozen or so Oscar-worthy performances.
Will win: Howard, who applied his mainstream touch to highbrow material and crafted a critical and commercial hit.
Lemire:
Should win: Howard. Because he's been around forever, he's never won an Oscar, and he's beloved in Hollywood. And this is the best movie he's ever made.
Will win: Altman. Because he's been around even longer, he's never won an Oscar despite numerous nominations, and while he's not exactly beloved in Hollywood, the academy will honor him for a lifetime of work.
Nominees: Russell Crowe, A Beautiful Mind; Sean Penn, I Am Sam; Will Smith, Ali; Denzel Washington, Training Day; Tom Wilkinson, In the Bedroom
Germain:
Should win: Washington, who delivers one of the most likable bad guys since James Cagney in his gangster-flick days.
Will win: Washington. He's earned a best-actor Oscar to go with his supporting-role trophy.
Lemire:
Should win: Crowe. He deserves it more this year than he did last year when he won for Gladiator. And Tom Hanks has shown that back-to-back best-actor Oscars are possible.
Will win: Washington. Because he doesn't have a best-actor Oscar, and while he doesn't necessarily deserve it for this role, the prevailing sentiment will be that he's due.
Nominees: Halle Berry, Monster's Ball; Judi Dench, Iris; Nicole Kidman, Moulin Rouge; Sissy Spacek, In the Bedroom; Renee Zellweger, Bridget Jones's Diary
Germain:
Should win: Kidman, called upon to be a kook, a crooner, a can-can courtesan and a corpse. Performances don't get much more expansive.
Will win: Spacek, weighing in as one of the best ice queens since Mary Tyler Moore in Ordinary People (whom Spacek beat for best actress with Coal Miner's Daughter).
Lemire:
Should win: Spacek, for the most quietly powerful performance of the year.
Will win: Spacek. I said it last year about Julia Roberts in Erin Brockovich, and I'll say it again: Give in to the juggernaut.
Nominees: Jim Broadbent, Iris; Ethan Hawke, Training Day; Ben Kingsley, Sexy Beast; Ian McKellen, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring; Jon Voight, Ali
Germain:
Should win: Kingsley, who's as gut-punch scary playing mobster Don Logan as he was benign playing Gandhi.
Will win: Kingsley. Vote for him, academy members, or Don Logan's paying you a visit.
Lemire:
Should win: Kingsley. Sexy Beast was one of the best movies of 2001, and Kingsley was impossible to stop watching — in a movie no one saw.
Will win: McKellen. Lord of the Rings, with its 13 nominations, has to win something in a major category, and it won't get best picture or best director.
Nominees: Jennifer Connelly, A Beautiful Mind; Helen Mirren, Gosford Park; Maggie Smith, Gosford Park; Marisa Tomei, In the Bedroom; Kate Winslet, Iris
Germain:
Should win: Mirren. She delights with prim-and-proper restraint before breaking hearts with an emotional meltdown at film's end.
Will win: Connelly, whose powerful performance caps a string of bold roles informing Hollywood that she is far more than just a pretty face.
Lemire:
Should win: Connelly. And it's about time she receives the recognition she's deserved for years.
Will win: Connelly. Granted, she has an unfair advantage because she's really in a leading role, but she shines.
© 2002 Associated Press