The Inside Line by Michael Cieply��Inside.com
Rankings on the Inside Line are calculated daily, based on a contender's pedigree, awards, reviews, press, promotional campaign and buzz. Though it's been relatively quiet since the Oscar nominations were announced 10 days ago, we've picked up just enough buzz to start assigning points:
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon -- No. 3 on the Inside Line with a score of 265.2 -- picks up 13 points, as the American Film Market in Santa Monica teems with knockoffs, and audiences keep responding (the box office has topped $73 million). The buzz would be louder, but Academy-watching technical experts are saying votes will be drained off by those who assume the picture is being sufficiently honored as a Best Foreign-Language Film contender, and spend their Best Picture chip elsewhere.
Ang Lee, No. 1 with 361.6 points among directors, picks up 18 buzz points. Even competitors are betting he'll prevail, especially since he was overlooked in years past for worthy pictures like Sense and Sensibility and The Ice Storm.
Gladiator and Ridley Scott -- No. 1 with 316.3 points points and No. 3 with 297.4 points, respectively -- get just five buzz points each, after factoring in the previously discussed Hannibal penalty. Normally, the score would be higher, as Oscar-watchers chew over the positive effect of David Franzoni's unexpected screenplay nomination. But Hannibal's flaws, as a glossy but empty thriller, simply draw too much attention to potential weaknesses in Scott's Oscar film. (For the record, Fort Worth Star-Telegram film writer Christopher Kelly makes good today on his promise to attack Gladiator every Friday. This week's assault includes a letter from Roger Briggs, a Fort Worth reader, who writes: "I watched Gladiator while a recovering hepatitis patient. The disease was far eaiser to survive.")
Franzoni, four with 243.1 points among original writers, gets 10 negative buzz points. It's hard to find anyone who thinks he's got a prayer, despite the surprise nomination and its positive effect for Gladiator.
Chocolat, No. 5 with a score of 205.8, picks up 10 buzz points for surprising almost everyone, fans and detractors alike. It remains a long shot, but people are talking about the way ticket-splitting could weaken some of the more obvious contenders.
Director Steven Soderbergh picks up 10 buzz points for Traffic, six for Erin Brockovich. The numbers would be much higher, but everyone is now aware of the potential damage that may come from a split vote. This leaves him in second place with 322.7 points for Brockovich, and fourth place with 252.4 points for Traffic. The Directors Guild Awards on March 10 may settle which, if either, of these pictures is Soderbergh's prize-winner; and Hollywood's handicappers are betting on Traffic (No. 4 with 248.9 points) to play better with the DGA. One competitor says to watch for the slightest sign that the director has been leaned upon to favor Brockovich (No. 2 with 273.1 points), with its high-stakes campaign for Julia Roberts (No. 1 with 420 points). "That would sit very badly with the members," this person maintains.
Not that she needs it, the buzz, at 20 points, just gets stronger and stronger around Roberts. To wreck her campaign at this point, she'd have to be caught in a messy affair with Russell Crowe (No. 2 with 255.7 points, and buzz-free, at the moment.)
A final note: Conventional wisdom has it that the vast majority of Academy ballots are marked and returned within a week or so of landing in the hands of members. Ballots will be sent out on Wednesday. Allowing a day or two for the mails, this means most voters will make up their minds during the week of March 4, which is bracketed by awards ceremonies at the writers guild on one end, and directors and actors guilds on the other. Look for some intense campaigning that week.
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