by Gregg Kilday
LOS ANGELES (The Hollywood Reporter) --- With only five weeks to go until nominations for the 75th Anniversary Academy Awards are announced Feb. 11, this year's Oscar race is just entering a critical lap, and with a crowded pack of films all bunched together as they make the turn, a relatively unpredictable race promises to go down to the wire.
Certainly, there is no one thoroughbred -- like 1993's Schindler's List, which picked up all the major critics' trophies on its way to a best drama Golden Globe and a best picture Oscar -- in the clear favorite role.
Officially, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has judged 279 pictures eligible to compete for best picture. In reality, about two dozen films are positioned to capture mentions in the major categories, with about 10 films realistically poised to make a serious run for the best picture blue ribbon.
At the moment, the two films that appear to be locks for best picture nominations are Miramax Films' Broadway-to-screen musical transfer Chicago and Paramount Pictures/Miramax's novel-to-film adaptation The Hours. It's not just that the two led the list of Golden Globe nominees -- Chicago grabbed eight noms, including best musical, while The Hours scooped up seven, including best drama -- although that accomplishment doesn't hurt.
Both films also enjoy a depth of acting talent that ensures them further Academy consideration. Chicago was greeted enthusiastically at its official Academy screening, while Hours is loaded with prestige elements, beginning with the Pulitzer Prize- winning novel on which it is based.
Both may have detractors. The rap on Chicago is that its glitter is too shallow and cynical, while the knock on Hours is that its tripartite portrait of three women contemplating the abyss is too depressing. But while that may mean neither film ultimately captures the hearts of Academy voters, both films are guaranteed an extended courtship.
At least one slot in the Academy lineup is usually reserved for an epic, and this year there are two possibilities in the running: New Line Cinema's The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers and Miramax's Gangs of New York.
After the Academy celebrated the first installment of Peter Jackson's Rings cycle with 13 nominations and four wins last year, the early betting argued that with the Rings grand finale scheduled for release in December, the Academy might, at least subconsciously, cut back on its honors for chapter two, knowing that it will have another opportunity to reward Jackson a year from now.
But another strong critical showing and the movie's commanding commercial success put it back in the running. Towers is likely to again secure lots of crafts nominations, and -- despite such contenders as Spider-Man, Stars Wars: Episode II -- Attack of the Clones and Minority Report, among others -- Towers would appear to be the film to beat in the visual effects dust-up. And that strength amid the Academy branches could, in turn, result in a best picture nomination as well.
Similarly, Gangs, with its detailed re-creation of old New York, should also command depth of field, which often ensures a consequent best picture nom. But with so many critics holding director Martin Scorsese to the highest of standards, his film's reception was more problematic: In an attempt to quantify its reviews, Web site rottentomatoes.com rated the Gangs reviews 77% positive. In contrast, Towers earned a 97% approval rating.
Still, the Academy could find it difficult to ignore an ambitious Scorsese film. Although it's not out of the question, as the last time the director turned in a New York period piece, 1993's The Age of Innocence, it failed to win a place among the best picture nominees.
But then, what makes this year's race so difficult to handicap is that, with three or four slots assigned, there are still a pack of what might be dubbed "the critics' pics" all hot on each other's tails.
This year, the critics' groups have all placed different bets: The Los Angeles Film Critics Association led off by honoring New Line's About Schmidt; the New York Film Critics Circle countered with Focus Features' Far From Heaven; and the Toronto Film Critics Assn. opted for Sony Pictures' Adaptation.
But the critics' film that may just have the most momentum at the moment is Focus' The Pianist, which earned Cannes' Palme d'Or in May. Also lauded by film critics in Boston and San Francisco, it was just named best picture by the National Society of Film Critics. Given that its director, Roman Polanski, is making a career comeback with a tale of survival that draws upon his own harrowing childhood, and because films about the Holocaust have often resonated with the Academy, The Pianist currently represents formidable competition.
But even as it thunders toward the Feb. 11 finish line, the race includes several more entries that can't be counted out.
DreamWorks/20th Century Fox's Road to Perdition and Fox Searchlight's Antwone Fisher have also been championed by Academy handicappers as genuine contenders. Timing, however, may be working against each of them: Road was released in July, while Fisher didn't bow in limited release until Dec. 19, when it was overshadowed by some of the splashier year-end openers, and it has not yet moved into wider release. But both boast pedigrees in their respective directors, Oscar winners Sam Mendes and Denzel Washington, that suggest attention must be paid.
Other late arrivals, including Disney's 25th Hour, directed by Spike Lee, and Paramount's Narc, helmed by Joe Carnahan, could have a harder time developing traction. And Steven Spielberg, with two possible films in contention, must overcome the Academy's prejudice against sci-fi and/or light entertainment if either Minority Report (Fox/DreamWorks) or Catch Me If You Can (DreamWorks) is to prevail.
In addition, the past year's two most critically acclaimed foreign language films -- Pedro Almodovar's Talk to Her, released by Sony Pictures Classics, and Alfonso Cauron's Y Tu Mama Tambien, released by IFC Films -- are also in the mix. Ironically, neither movie can take part in this year's foreign language film competition: Mama would have been eligible last year but was not submitted by Mexico, and Talk, though it captured best film at the European Film Awards, was not submitted by Spain. But because both films opened commercially in Los Angeles last year, they are eligible in other categories. And even though they have to be considered long shots for a best picture nomination, their respective, and respected, directors could both figure in the contest for best director nominations.
Viewed from the perspective of the Academy's directors branch, the race becomes even more complicated. In addition to Almodovar and Cauron, the directors could shine their spotlight on such other contenders as Phillip Noyce (represented by both The Quiet American and Rabbit-Proof Fence), Spielberg and even Curtis Hanson (8 Mile). Jackson, Polanski, Stephen Daldry (The Hours) and Spike Jonze (Adaptation), all previously nominated by the branch, would seem to have a leg up over Rob Marshall (Chicago) and Alexander Payne (About Schmidt), relative newcomers to the game. Scorsese, who has received three previous directing nominations but has never won, has to be considered a sentimental favorite in that category however Gangs fares in the picture race.
Unless Frida's Julie Taymor stages a late rally, the directors look to be hosting another all-male affair.
With so much jockeying for position going on, the down-to-wire sprint even boasts a dark horse: IFC Films' My Big Fat Greek Wedding. A Golden Globe nominee for best comedy or musical, Wedding, a genuine crowd-pleaser, at first glance might not seem to be serious Oscar material. But actress-writer Nia Vardalos' Cinderella story -- it's the female equivalent of Sylvester Stallone's Rocky saga, which ultimately resulted in a best picture win -- could be warmly applauded by the actors branch, the Academy's largest single constituency. In which case, all bets are off.
© 2003 The Hollywood Reporter