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SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FOR THURSDAY

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Weather Forecast& Convective Outlook

Weather Forecast

Convective Outlook

**Please for any comments contact me at [email protected] .

 A deep low pressure (storm-system), is moving along northern Africa coast, accompanied by deep, sharp and polar upper-level trough, this low will enter the Middle East and Jordan from THU00Z02FEB2006 forming a heat low next to S Jordan by afternoon Thursday, which will provide typical conditions for severe weather here in Jordan, which will produce localized extremely heavy rain over most of the regions accompanied by severe and strong thunderstorms and hailstorms, furthermore, serious flooding is forecasted, with many flash floods. GFS recorded the second highest value forecasting precipitation for OJAM which 15mm. Afternoon Tomorrow, will be very interesting here, and forecasters talking about more than 60mm in some areas. There is very high risk of severe weather.

General TAF Code For My Station (Swileh)

2006/02/02 04:00
OJSW 020400Z 0606 00000KT 9999 SCT060 SCT090 OVC160
BECMG 0912 11020KT 8000 -SHRA OR DZ SCT050TCU SCT080 OVC120
TEMPO 4000 HZ
BECMG 1216 13012G22KT 6000 SHRA SCT045TCU SCT070 OVC100
BECMG 1624 14015G25KT 2000 +TS +SHRA SHGR SCT025CB SCT030 OVC050
TEMPO 2224 +SHGR
BECMG 0006 22016KT 3000 BR SHRA FEW020CB SCT025 OVC035 PROB030
TEMPO TS SHRA

Watches and Warnings

08:30 01FEB2006- Severe thunderstorms, flash floods watch for most areas in Jordan, in affect from, 18Z01FEB2006 to 03Z02FEB2006.

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18:00 24JAN2006-  Flash flood are warning Aqaba, Arava, southern parts of the Dead Sea, eastern Amman.

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20:00 11JAN2006- Flash flood warning all parts in Amman.

00:12 10JAN2006- Severe thunderstorms, flash floods watch for most areas in Jordan, in affect from, 18Z10JAN2006.

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16:00 04JAN2006- Severe thunderstorms, flash floods are warning southern and eastern Jordan, Tafeela, and parts of Eastern Amman.

12:30 04JAN2006- Severe thunderstorms, flash floods watch for most areas in southern and eastern of the kingdom, which are Al Jafer, Rwashied, Aqaba, and Zarqa.

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10:00 25DEC2005- Severe thunderstorms are warning all areas in northern and central parts of Jordan, in affect to 14LT.

03:20 25DEC2005- Winter Storm is warning all areas in northern and central parts of Jordan higher than 1100 meters, affected from 0300z to 1800z

12:00 24DEC2005- Severe thunderstorms, flash floods watch for all areas in northern and central parts of the kingdom, in affect from 12Z24DEC2005 to 06Z25DEC2005.

12:00 24DEC2005- Winter Storm watch for all areas above 900 meters in northern and central areas, and above 1100 meters in southern parts, in affect from 18Z24DEC2005 to 18Z25DEC2005.

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06:00 TO 18:00 17DEC2005- Severe thunderstorms warning northern parts of the kingdom, and western areas of central parts of the kingdom.

18:00 TO 18:00 16-17DEC2005- Floods, and Flash floods warning all northern and central parts of Jordan.

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15:00 TO 18:00 15DEC2005- Severe thunderstorms, flash floods warning southern mountains and towards northern Aqaba, and southern Ma'an.

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11:06-11:25 18NOV2005- Funnel cloud (weak tornado) warning The Central Jordan Valley, and Western Amman Mountains.

23:00 17NOV2005- Severe thunderstorm watch for eastern of the kingdom, in effect November 18 0600 until November 19 0000 local time.

23:00 17NOV2005- Thunderstorm watch for northern and central parts of the kingdom, in effect November 18 0000 until 2200 local time.

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23:00 14NOV2005- Severe thunderstorm watch for southern and eastern Jordan, including Amman, Sherah (southern) Mountains, the Arava, the Jordan Valley, and Rewashed, in effect November 15 0000 until November 16 1200 local time.

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15:00 28OCT2005- Thunderstorm warning towards northern Aqaba.

13:00 28OCT2005- Thunderstorm watch for the southeast and southern parts of Jordan including Sherah mountains.

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13:00 to 16:25 29SEP2005- Severe thunderstorm, flash floods, high winds advisory, heavy hail are warning most parts in northern and eastern areas.

12:00 29SEP2005- Severe Thunderstorms are warning Irbid, Jerash and Mafraq.

11:00 29SEP2005- Thunderstorms are watching for Eastern parts of Jordan.

10:00 29SEP2005- Thunderstorms are watching for northern and Central parts of Jordan, including Amman.

Weather Reports

January, 25-28 2006:

    * A major winter storm stuck to eastern Europe including Turkey, Greece and bring one of the strongest and heaviest snow-storm since 60s, blocking the roads and stopping the life there, and the snow fell there above the sea level, while here we got only the tail of that storm with rainy weather in northern and central parts of the kingdom. On 28JAN, very cold air penetrated to us in low levels, but there was strong inversion at 700hPa, preventing snowfall, but some high areas get light snow and freezing rain. Extensive frost happened by the end date of the low pressure.

January, 17-18 2006:

    * The same static cold and polar upper-level trough, this time combined with a red sea trough in the surface cased severe thunderstorms on dawn hours of 17JAN over western Jordan and the NW with heavy rain showers accompanied by hailstorms, also snow fell over high areas but without accumulation. On 17JAN evening and 18JAN heavy rain fell over most of the areas. 30mm in the north, and 15mm in the central.

January, 10-15 2006:

    * A static cold and polar upper-level trough with very complicated system caused one of the hardest weather systems-forecast ever in Jordan, that the sounding for high levels recorded values exactly opposite to the models forecast. On 11JAN2006 heavy rain showers fell with snow/rain mix over high areas and some heavy hail storms over eastern Amman with 2-6cm accumulations. 12 and 13JAN was only cold and cloudy with some light rain, and continue on also 14 and 15JAN, the main reason from not having rain that there is one isobar entering Jordan, which is not enough to push the clouds from the sea towards us. Almost not more than 30mm in all areas fell in this system.

January, 07-09 2006:

    * A cold upper-level forced the red sea trough to provide conditions for forming a Cyprus low on 12Z07JAN2006, and cold front organized on morning of 08JAN2006, and passed us during the day. This case caused very heavy amounts of rain, accompanied by severe thunderstorms in the north with heavy hail showers, while in the central got occasional showers with heavy briefs, and some strong thunderstorms and hail. Swileh and western Amman, and some areas also in the central got hailstorms. In the south, light rain fell in Shoubak heights. A very rare thing happened, that in a shower the rain was accompanied by strong winds-gusting that the rain turn completely to snow in Swileh exactly for 1 min and for severe times during the day, and it's strange because there isn't any parameter indicates even for light snow/rain mix. Heavy graupel accompanied some showers.

January, 04-06 2006:

    * A rare red sea trough built over the Middle East, and great amounts of topical moisture pushed to us, cause severe thunderstorms to develop on 04JAN2006 in the afternoon and night over most parts of the kingdom accompanied by local rain and it was localized heavy at times over southern and eastern parts of the kingdom. The highest amount was in Tafeela with 8mm, but I think that the desert areas got very heavy rain but there is no stations provide us with exact amounts. On 05JAN2006, again thunderstorms developed over southern and eastern parts of the kingdom with the first rain from the first of the season in Aqaba. Also 06JAN2006 thunderstorms developed over the same areas (South and east), but with less rain.

December, 23-25 2005:

    * Another time, a very wet system hit us in this period. A polar strong upper-trough deepen next to Lebanon coasts, then retired again. A Cyprus low pressure system formed and passed us on Sunday. Heavy amounts of rain fell on Friday, and stopped for a while until Saturday noon time, then returned more stronger, heavier and accompanied by severe and strong thunderstorms especially on Sunday morning. Heavy snow/rain mix fell in Amman over areas higher than 900 meters, while snow showers was falling over areas higher than 1000 meters, and over areas higher than 1200 meters got snowy conditions with accumulation up to 15cm as Ras Muneef. The rain amounts was between 50-80mm in the north, and 30-65mm in the central, while the south only got light snow over Shoubak, Tafeela and Ma'an, and the accumulation was between 2-4cm. All models predict very wrong values as the GFS predict that lower 1000-500hPa thickness will be 5350 on 09z25DEC2005, while the actual, the lowest 1000-500hPa thickness was 5380 in whole day.

December, 16-17 2005:

    * One of the wettest storm systems in the last several years hit central Jordan with rain of  40 to 100 millimeters. The system, was as an helper after 24 consecutive days without drop of rain here. This system, caused serious floods over many places, and caused also some damages for the roads and the infra structure for it. In the north the rain amounts was much below than central with range between 20 to 50 millimeters. This all was because, a 500hPa upper-trough with Cyprus low pressure System.

November, 23- December, 14 2005:

    * This is the 24th consecutive day in row, very stable weather is affecting the Middle East, with very warm temperatures, and above-normal values, while western Europe is getting strong snowstorms. Strong Ridge over the 500hPa level, is preventing the up-wards motions, so during noon time thick haze and smoke is forming above Amman, Zarqa reducing the visibility to 1000 meters, and by evening the haze and smoke disappeared. The last week of the wave, surface flow feed the low level with humidity, and there was strong ridge over the 500hPa, which caused dense smog, and it's the first time occur in Jordan.

November, 21-22 2005:

    * A Cyprus low pressure system, caused heavy rains with plenty of thunderstorms activity over northern and central part of the kingdom. 25-50mm fell in the north and 5-25mm in the central, 1-10mm in the south.

November, 15-16 2005:

    * An active red sea trough affected all the Middle East including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the northern Gulf countries. The trough brought for Jordan thunderstorms activity over southern areas on November, 15 with little amounts of rain. On November, 16 local heavy rain fell over the Dead sea and the Jordan Valley(2-10mm), some scattered local showers fell over eastern Amman (0.5mm). Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the northern Gulf countries, got very severe weather. Very heavy rain with severe thunderstorms reported in those areas, with huge flooding.

November, 06-07 2005:

    * The same (cut-off) upper-level low with it troughs to our region, is causing rain case after the another, this time, was the best one. 15-45mm fell in the northern areas, while central got 5-25mm, and also the south got some good amounts for this time of the year with 1-6mm. The weather in the last week looks exactly as winter.

November, 04-05 2005:

    * Widespread heavy rain felled over northern and central parts of the kingdom during noon time on NOV04 until NOV05 early morning. Northern areas got 5-26mm and the central parts got 0.4mm to 7mm. This was because the first Cyprus organized low pressure system, and the same (cut-off) upper-level low and it's troughs to our region.

October, 31 2005:

    * A deep (cut-off) upper-level low over Turkey, sending troughs to our region, with a combination of low pressure and red sea trough, caused some rain showers over northern and central parts of the kingdom from the 00Z until 13Z. Temperatures went 8 degrees below the average. Syria and Lebanon got severe thunderstorms and heavy rain, while widespread heavy snow fell in Turkey.

October, 28 2005:

    * A deep 500hPa trough passed through Jordan, with a red sea trough, but there wasn't any model was forecasting humidity over the mid-levels, but in the actual a line of mid-levels humidity enter southern Jordan around noon time, with high heat cumulus clouds developed over the southern tip. A thunderstorm was reported in northern Aqaba with 0.3mm rain, but the thunderstorm was severe in the high levels, because it was seen from Amman.

October, 23 2005:

    * A deep Red Sea Trough affected Jordan and the Middle East in general, caused strong winds to blew over most of the parts with gusting up to 30KT, which caused a sandstorm to blew with heavy haze starting from early afternoon and continue during the evening and night. The visibility dropped down to 2KM over most of the areas and some of the deserted regions got less than 1KM.

October, 19-20 2005:

    * Again, second upper-level trough passed through the Eastern Mediterranean, accompanied by surface low pressure system, caused widespread rain along northern and central Jordan, with some thunderstorms activity. Temperatures went 8 degrees below the average, and the weather seemed as a winter.

October, 16 2005:

    * A cold upper-level trough accompanied by surface low pressure system affect the Eastern Mediterranean, caused gale force winds and some local rain showers towards night over northern areas. Some sprinkles and local light rain showers also fell over central parts. Rain amounts in the north were 2 to 6mm and in the central 0.5 to 2mm.

October, 13 2005:

    * Very intense heat affected Jordan, when 40 degrees were measured in Azraq and almost 35 in Amman. The temperatures were above the average about 8 degrees. The other reasons behind the very uncomfortable feeling that the humidity were too low of 10% in Amman and the winds were so calm and light that in the whole day(24 hours) didn't pass 6Kt! Red Sea Trough with eastern flow, were the cause of the case.

September, 29 2005:

    * The first significant early upper-trough affected the Middle East with great cold air aloft (-13 to -16 degrees C), and even though there wasn't any surface weather system, just a deepening of the Persian-Monsoon trough, it was enough for an instability air and developing severe thunderstorms especially in northern and eastern Jordan. The eastern areas and the desert is still very hot (32-35C), which helped that storms become severe with incredible amounts of rain. The storms started to develop around noon time, exactly above Amman, but nothing happened, and then when it started to move to the east type 9 CB developed accompanied by type 4 which (usually) indicate of severe weather ahead. The first severe thunderstorm was over western section of eastern areas and especially over Al-Zarqa dumped 15 millimeters of rain in just 10 minutes. The same storm moved towards eastern areas and especially over Al-hasmie University area and got very violent as a result of the high heating in that area, and dumped 25 mm in just 10 minutes, which is a new record for Jordan, with heavy hail showers and lightning were seen in the middle of the noon time, which is sign of how much the storm was violent. That's 15 times the entire September average! Local thunderstorms developed over the northern areas as Mafraq, Jerash, Irbid and Ajloun. 1-10 mm were recorded in that areas.

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