February 18, 1999, Thursday, sunny, 10-27C, 100% humidity

 

[23:44 @ Rm.112, Kanha Jungle Lodge]

      The experiment with the parabolic mirror solar cooker cannot be said to be an unmitigated success.  Due to the slightly rippled surface of the steel sheet and the straight longitudinal section, the solar rays were not sharply focuses at a single point but were instead diffusedly focused along a strip, the temperature of the various objects upon which the rays were reflected was simply not high enough.  It could slow fry an egg, and could heat water to about 150F, but that’s about it.  Not much improvement can be made with the existing set up except shielding it from the wind and perhaps using a long and thicker black metal plate.  As is, it can be used to dry things, to warm water, slow cook certain items, things like that.  So, time to look for a better reflective surface. 

      In the evening, three park guides came to visit, as invited by Faiyaz, two of whom I have had on safaris before, the youngest being currently enrolled in a correspondence university program, final year.  We (Faiyaz, Anne, Chris, I and they) discussed:

1.    giving them weekly or twice weekly English lessons

2.    raising park gate fee to benefit park and the villages.  They too, whose current wages are Rs65 (C$2.50) per safari or Rs65 per day doing various park jobs in the off season, may benefit.

3.    giving them a photographic work shop and lending them my camera.

      They are excited about all three ideas.  We invited them back tomorrow evening for the Champions video and further discussions.  They will ask a few more people to come.

      Tomorrow is medical clinic day.  As of 14:00, Faiyaz and Anne will be free.  We will sit down and form a final plan as to what will be done over the next month.  I have in mind to do the following:

1.    visit villages and panchayats (multi-village councils)

2.    take villagers into the park

3.    visit village schools

4.    invite village leaders to visit the Tiger Trust Conservation Centre and give them video and slide shows, hold discussion sessions and demonstrate solar devices, etc.

5.    establish a village and panchyat network

6.    work at raising park gate fee from the current Rs100 to Rs1000 for foreign tourists and from the current Rs10 to Rs100 for Indian tourists

7.    video/slide shows to tourists

8.    twice weekly training program for guides and guards

      Having checked out India to the extent I have been able to thus far, I believe that the greatest asset of the country is its low cost labour for high quality (e.g. Faiyaz and the park guide on the university correspondence program).  A plan that does not make maximum use of this resource is ill-conceived and downright foolish.  The best use of the CIDA grant money in India is to put it into building a large team of local worker to maximize result.  At an average monthly wage of Rs3000, we can hire 20 people for 12 months with Rs720,000 (CDN$28,800), half of whom with university education.  Of course there would be other expenses such as lodging, but let’s not forget that Pradeep’s hare of the CIDA grant is C$60,000 per annum.  Just think what WCWC can do with such a team in Canada, at the cost of a single person’s wage!  With such a team in India, and with systematic and ambitious planning, we can easily accomplish 100 fold with the CIDA grant than what is on Pradeep’s table, let alone under it.

      The vision of a 20-person tiger saving team is the best thus far and will or at least should form the core of future operations in India.  This will entail a very different plan from the one or type Pradeep has so far unilaterally designed.  Also, even if Tiger Trust is to be retained as partner (practically speaking, contractor), it must be a sovereign NGO not subservient to any associated commercial interest as Tiger Trust is subservient to Dynamic Tours, with a full time dedicated leader heading a dedicated team, which Tiger Trust currently is without. 

      We talked about building the large solar oven – above ground – perhaps with a brick outer shell.  He will arrange for a brick mason to come in ASAP, tomorrow, preferably.

      In our by now nightly OMNI-SCIENCE discussion, Chris said, “Anthony, I’ve been thinking about what you guys told me last night.  I’m still not convinced that a city and a village are on two different levels.”

      “Why not?” Raminothna challenged him.

      “I mean, a nation is composed of more or less specialized cities, that’s obvious.  But the cities of a nation, like Delhi and Calcutta and Bangalore and Balaghat of India, are physically distinct entities.  On the other hand, is a physically coherent body.  Unlike a nation, a city is not composed of a large number of specialized and physically distinct villages.  To me, a city looks just like a very large and complex village.  Conversely, why can’t a village be just a very small and simple city?”

      “So, how does a village become a city?”

      “By growing into one, I suppose,” Chris said, noncommittally.

      “Perhaps we can get some insight by looking at how the first city was formed.”

      “I don’t know much about this, except that civilization originated about 10,000 years ago, in Mesopotamia.”

      “How do you think it occurred?”

      “I would guess that there were a number of tribal cultures in the region then, and it just happened that one of them blossomed into a full-scale city state.”

      “Just happened?” 

      “Well, of course they would have to work on it.”

      “Who are ‘they’?”

      “The villagers of this village.”

      “And the other villages?”

      “I guess they just didn’t make it, or made it later,” Chris said uncertainly.  But a new thought made him brighten up.  “Are you saying that many villages got together to form the first city?”

      “I am.”

      “How many?”

      “Hundreds, perhaps over a thousand.”

      “Let me make this clear for myself,“ Anne cut in.  “Are you saying that over a thousand villages pulled up their roots about 10,000 years ago, moved together in one place, and collectively formed the first city?”

      “Something like that.”

      “What on Earth could have made them do that?” pursued Anne.

      “Let’s go to the school house.  I’ll show you on the map, that is, if you haven’t seen it before we get there.”

      While we were walking through the forest, Faiyaz spoke up.  “Shortly before that, the ice age ended.  Does this have anything to do with it?”

      “It has everything to do with it.  Why don’t you tell us what you know about the ice age?”

      “Over the last million years, there were five ice ages.  The last one, which started about 100,000 years ago and ended about 11,500 years ago, was the longest and coldest, and perhaps the only one in which the modern form of our species existed.  Less than 2,000 years after the ending of the ice age, the first city arose.  It does strike me as being more than just a coincidence.”

      “What role do you think the ending of the Ice Age played in the rise of the first city?”

      “I have no idea.  I’ve never thought about it,” said Faiyaz.

      “But you do know something about what happened when the Ice Age ended?”

      “Only physical things, such as global warming, polar ice caps shrinking, sea level rising, vegetation changing, things like that.  Nothing cultural.”

      “Not quite, Faiyaz, you’re on to something.”

      “What are we on to?”

      “The direct and immediate cause of the rise of civilization from tribal culture, of course.”

      “To what do you refer?  Changes in climate?”

      “That might have a little to do with it.”

      “Just a little?  How about vegetation change then?”

      “That too.”

      “What else?  It wasn’t due to sea level rising, that’s for sure, since the first cities were way inland.”

      “Think again.”

      “What do you mean?”

      “What else do you know about changes in the sea level?”

      “Well, I’ve read that the sea level dropped about 120 meters or even 150 meters from today’s level during the Ice Age, that is from 400 to 500 feet.”

      “For how long?”

      “Thousands or tens of thousands of years in a stretch.”

We then arrived at the Conservation Centre.

      By then, they had a vague idea as to what to look for.  They leafed through the Atlas, paying special attention to the currently submerged continental shelves of the various continents. 

      “Any continental shelf shallower than 120 meters deep today would be exposed to dry air during the Ice Age,” said Anne, “perhaps over an extended period of thousands of years.”

      It didn’t take them long to pin point four major shelves – 1. the one east of China currently under the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea which if exposed would link China to Taiwan and even Japan, 2. the one surrounded by Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, Sumatra and Borneo, 3. the one between Papua New Guinea and Australia, and 4. the one currently submerged under the Persian Gulf.  There are no other major shelves elsewhere in the world. 

      “The continents looked very different from the way they look today, that’s for sure,” Chris observed, “especially Asia and the Middle East.”

      “Go on.”

      “I see the Yellow River – Huang Ho - greatly extended, by as much as 1,500 kilometers, not reaching the Pacific Ocean until almost Japan.”

      “And?”

      “No great rivers for shelves 2 and 3, but through the entire length of the Persian Gulf shelf would have flowed the thousand kilometer extension of the merged Tigris-Euphrates, all the way past the present day Straight of Hormuz, into the Gulf of Oman.”

      “And?”

      “And… if the climate was wet, there would be lush vegetation, grasslands, forests… on all four shelves.”

      “And?”

      “And animals.”

      “And?”

      “And humans!” added Anne in dawning comprehension and excitement.

      “And?”

      “And human tribal cultures.”

      “And was the climate wet?”

      She looked to me and Faiyaz.  Faiyaz said, “I don’t know about everywhere else, but I remember reading about the Sahara desert being full of lakes as recently as 16,000-8,000 years ago, and there is geological evidence in support of that.  Near enough to the Persian Gulf region to say that the Persian Gulf region was probably a lush ecosystem.  I believe the Middle East was a green corridor between Africa and India.  Thus, the Asiatic lion and cheetah, and the Caspian tiger.  Unfortunately, as we know, two out of these three are now extinct, and the last 300 Asiatic lions have been inextricably cut off from their African cousins.”

      “Let’s concentrate on the Persian Gulf shelf for now.  What do you think would be the total human population on it back then?”

      “I think I’m finally beginning to see what you’re driving at, Anthony.  If it is what I think it is, it’s very interesting.  Fascinating in fact.  But, okay, let’s approach it one step at a time.  So, the Persian Gulf.  It is, let’s see, about 1,000 km long and an average of about 250 km wide, or about 250,000 sq. km. in area.  Its maximum depth is 90 meters, and its average depth is 50 meters, meaning that indeed it would be exposed to the air in its entirety.  So the questions are:  How many tribes lived on it?  What was the average population per tribe?  We can use Kanha’s Buffer Zone for comparison.  Its area is about 1,000 sq. km..  It has 178 villages, each with an average of 500 villagers, giving it a total human population of about 90,000, or 90 per sq. km..  So if the Persian Gulf shelf had the same human density, it would have 53,400 tribal villages, and a total human population of over 26 million.  This is obviously way too high, the reasons being that India is intensely agrarian, whereas the tribal cultures back 12,000 years ago were largely hunter-gatherer with only the earliest forms of agriculture.  India is of course also one of the densest populated places on Earth today.  Another model is the Amazon Basin.  Its area is about 7 million sq. km..  Its original native population, before the arrival of Europeans, is estimated to be about 3 million.  So its original population density was about 1 person per two sq. km..  So at the same population density, the Persian Gulf shelf would have a total human population of about 125,000.  If some of the tribal cultures had developed agriculture at that point, and there is evidence of that, such as grain cultivation, the population density should be higher, say two every sq. km., giving it a total population of 500,000.  Considering an average population of 300 per tribe, there would be about 1,700 tribal cultures back then.”

      “Accepting these figures for now, what then?”

      “Then, around 11,500 years ago, the Ice Age ended.  The sea level rose and the Persian Gulf shelf was again submerged.  If I recall correctly, the process didn’t take place overnight, but over a number of years, which would allow enough time for the people to pack up and retreat before the rising tide.  So drowning would not be a factor of mortality.  The result would be a mass exodus up the Persian Gulf basin on to the upper Tigris-Euphrates valley, what was later called Mesopotamia.  I can see a population compression wave sweeping up the valley, until it finally was blocked by the mountains of Turkey and the Mediterranean Sea.”

      “Can you quantify this compression wave?”

      “Well, by the look of it, Mesopotamia is about the same size as the Persian Gulf, which means that the population there would have doubled in just a very few years, by none other than a mass influx of refugees.  There would be a huge amount of forced interactions, that’s for sure.  Is this is what you’re driving at?”

      “Partly.”

      “What’s the other part?”

      “Taking your figure of 1,700 tribes – what would they be like?” I asked him.

      “That’s a very broad question.”

      “Would they, for example, be mobile or sedentary?”

      “As far as I know, the domestication of the camel didn’t happen until about 3,500 BC, and the horse even later than that, I’d say that the people wasn’t very mobile.  And since the climate in the region stayed wet until about 10,000 years ago, there would be little impetus for the cultures to be nomadic.  And budding agriculture would certainly serve to anchor a tribe to one place.  So I venture to say sedentary.”

      “Would these cultures be alike or different?”

      “I’d say both.  But given their lack of mobility, and therefore lack of communication, they would have evolved divergently in terms of sociality and technology.  So, socially and technologically speaking, they would essentially be similar, but differ from each other to various extents in detail.”

      “And collectively?”

      “Collectively?  You mean the 1,700 tribes in total?  I would say that they would cover a broad range of social and technological innovations.”

      “So, what is the other side of the coin?”

      “What do you mean?”

      “I know.  Cultural mixing and amalgamation,” said Anne.  “Hmmm.  Yes.  I do think that population compression and cultural amalgamation combined would be a very powerful force towards fusing tribal cultures into a single civilization.  And I would think much the same occurred in China.”

      “Yes, China.  The rise of civilization in China lagged behind that in Mesopotamia by a few thousand years.  Why’s that?”

      Chris rejoined, “I think it is due to a softer compression, because the Yellow River is much longer than the Tigris-Euphrates, and there was no barrier along the Yellow river to block the compression wave, and thus less of a compression shock.”

      “And the shelves in South East Asia and Australia?”         “These shelves were wide open, and there would be no channeled compression as in the cases of the Persian Gulf and China,” said Anne.

      “And how about the native American civilizations such as the Aztec, the Inca and the Maya.  As you observed, there are no major shelves to expose.  So how did these civilizations originate?”

      “I think that the population compression and cultural amalgamation combination is a central criterion, so other mechanisms than the sea-level rise had to come in play to bring it about,” said Faiyaz.

      “And what could it be?”

      “Well, one way or another, it would require human movement.  It would be a convergent migration of a large range of tribes.  So, what could have cause that?” Chris thought out loud.     

      Faiyaz again consulted the Atlas, this time a double page showing the United States, Mexico and Central America.  Within one minute he said, “It is plain as daylight.  The key is in the shape of the land.  First, about 20,000 years ago, the native American precursors crossed over from Asia via the Bering land-bridge which was also exposed during the Ice Age.  Canada was then completely covered in miles of ice, except for an ice-free corridor along the Canadian Rockies through which the new migrants moved into the land now occupied by the U.S.  There they dispersed widely and divergently evolved into a range of tribal cultures.  Then, especially after the saturation point had been reached, they would tend to migrate further southward, and the only place to go was funnel-shaped Mexico.  Thus, population compression and cultural amalgamation, exactly where civilization arose.”

      “This would also be a much more gradual process, which explains the lateness of the rise of these civilizations,” observed Anne.          

      “So, my friends, you have described the organismization of the original cities, the integration and transcendence of tribal cultures into civilization.”

      “This is more than fascinating,” said Chris.  “I can already think of some very interesting applications of this theory.”

      “Name one.”

      “Well, eons in the future, when we go and study other planets in other solar systems, we’d be able to make prophesies of biblical proportions,” Chris said.

      “As alien observers may already have done with yours, I mean ours, eons ago,” said Raminothna.