In The News - 17/10/2005

 

Malaysian crude palm oil futures ended a little softer on Monday after export estimates for October 1-15 failed to follow through with the strong trend seen in the first 10 days of the month. A partial rebound in Chicago soyoil during Asian trading hours <0#ZL:> prevented the palm oil market from further erosion, dealers said.

 

Soyoil and palm oil compete for exports and their prices often move in step.

 

Societe Generale de Surveillance (SGS), an independent surveyor of Malaysian palm oil shipments, said it had estimated Oct. 1 to 15 exports at 640,553 tonnes, up 5.3 percent from figures it had compiled for first-half September. Five days ago, the cargo surveyor had estimated a growth of almost 21 percent for Oct. 1 to 10 exports. Intertek Testing Services, another tracker of Malaysian palm oil cargoes, said on Saturday it had estimated Oct. 1 to 15 exports at 630,627 tonnes, up 8.1 percent from Sept. 1 to 15. It had estimated a near 26 percent rise for Oct. 1 to 10.

 

"This basically means loadings in the last five days have been rather weak," a trader said. "It confirms our suspicions that October is not going to be a great month for exports."

 

Despite the export numbers, the new benchmark third-month January crude palm oil contract <KPOF6> on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended just 1 ringgit down at 1,451 ringgit a tonne ($384.88).

 

The contract had slipped as much as 6 ringgit in the morning to a low of 1,446. Its intraday high was 1,453 ringgit. Dealers said the market got support from soyoil and expected

it to trade the week at between 1,440 and 1,470 ringgit. Aside from January, only three other palm oil contracts for November <KPOX5>, December <KPOZ5> and February <KPOG6> were traded, showing declines of 1, 3 and 7 ringgit, respectively.

 

Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade closed firm on Monday, lifted by the strength in soyoil, but eased from session highs in late trading on long liquidation, traders said.

November soy <SX5> was up 1-3/4 cent at $5.91-1/4 per bushel, after climbing 10 cents to $5.99-1/2. November continues to hit resistance near $6, failing to reach that point since early September.

Deferreds settled 5-1/2 cents higher to 1 cent lower.

"It felt like the trade earlier ran into the $6 level and we just had some liquidation late. Psychologically $6 is very crucial, I think were looking to see if we can get over it and hit some stops," said one cash-connected trader.

Refco was a late seller of 500 November, traders said. But commercials and funds were net buyers, with funds buying about 2,500 lots. Firms also rolled their November positions to deferreds before the start of delivery at month's end.

The rally in soyoil, with December <BOZ5> closing 0.36 cent per lb higher at 24.39 cents, was a big reason why soybeans climbed on Monday. Soyoil tracked the energy markets -- rising amid fears about another storm moving into the center of the U.S. oil industry in the Gulf of Mexico -- due to increased demand for green fuels like soy biodiesel.

"Also the export inspections today were higher than expected, although below last year they only lag last year a little -- it's a cautiously optimism scenario with the exports we saw today," said Anne Frick, oilseeds analyst with Prudential Securities.

USDA reported on Monday that 32.0 million bushels of soybeans were inspected for export last week, vs. estimates for 17 million to 24 million. China was the top buyer, taking more than half or 19,460 tonnes.

There was also talk that China bought another 2 cargoes of U.S. soybeans on Monday, floor traders said.

The U.S. soy harvest was slowing down with 76 percent of the crop off the field, the USDA reported late Monday. That was within trade expectations for harvest to be 75 to 80 percent complete after an active harvest weekend.

Clear weather across the Midwest helped farmers get most of their beans in. Conditions should stay warm and dry through midweek, said Meteorlogix weather service.

Midwest cash basis bids for soybeans were steady at interior locations early Monday.

The weakest of the complex was soymeal, which lost ground to soyoil amid technical selling and soft U.S. cash soymeal markets. Processors have taken advantage of cheap freshly harvested soybeans and remain active crushers, thus adding to inventories. Crush margins have been profitable this fall but had a softer tone, cash-connected traders said late last week.

December meal <SMZ5> closed $1.30 down at $175.20 and the back months were 80 cents to $1.50 lower.

The Nov/Dec crush closed at 62.48 cents, down 0.65 cent.

Funds sold about 1,500 soymeal and bought 4,000 soyoil. There was also some oil/meal spreading.

Volume was light across the complex. In soybeans, an estimated 67,481 futures and 33,669 options traded. Soymeal volume was seen at 19,357 futures and 3,122 options. Estimated soyoil trade was 19,242 futures and 2,442 options.

In the futures delivery market, there were no deliveries posted against the expired October soymeal contract and one October soyoil contract delivered. The ADM house account stopped the soyoil.

CBOT soymeal registrations last Friday were unchanged at 476 lots. Soyoil registrations were unchanged at 4,519 lots.

Malaysian palm oil futures closed weak overnight as export estimates for the first half of October failed to excite the market, traders said.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday reported that commodity funds expanded their net long positions in CBOT soybean and soyoil futures/options combined as of Tuesday.

However in soymeal futures/options, large speculators added to their net short position.

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