In The News - 02/06/2005

 

KUALA LUMPUR, June 1 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures fell more than one percent on Wednesday on a cocktail of concerns, from surging output to weak prices of rival soyoil and a possible currency revaluation. The benchmark contract broke through the key psychological

support level of 1,400 ringgit a tonne after hovering just above it since the start of the week.

 

"There are no local fundamentals to really support the market now and the CBOT is not helping," said a trader, referring to the Chicago Board of Trade, where soyoil futures were mostly down in Wednesday's electronic trade, extending losses sparked by profit-taking the previous day. Soy and palm compete for export destinations and their prices often move in step.

 

Dealers said investors were worried that palm oil production could surge in coming months, overtaking demand. The market largely ignored estimates from a cargo surveyor on Tuesday that May shipments of palm oil could grow 18.6 percent over April.

 

Analysts from five plantation companies surveyed by Reuters last week forecast a median of 1,284,346 tonnes for May output, against the record 1,246,938 tonnes officially seen in April. The state-run Malaysian Palm Oil Board will issue on June 10 official production, exports and closing stock numbers for May.

 

Constant speculation that Malaysia will revalue its ringgit -- from the present fixed rate of 3.8 to the dollar -- is also weighing on the market. A higher ringgit will make palm oil, sold in dollars, more expensive. Malaysia is the largest palm oil producer and can influence the global prices of the commodity. 

 

CHICAGO, June 1 (Reuters) - Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade closed firm on Wednesday, hitting an 11-week high as ongoing weather and crop jitters sparked commodity index funds to buy beans, traders said.

The move in soybeans coincided with speculative buying in other U.S. commodities, including the U.S. crude oil futures rising over $50 per barrel.

The eastern Midwest remained dry with little rain expected until the weekend, a private forecaster said.

Adding fuel to the late rally were reminders that the yield-devastating soy rust disease was "likely" spreading into other areas of Georgia. That news was coupled with the June 1 start of the hurricane season, which could increase the chance of rust spreading. The net effect was more weather premium built into the new-crop months, traders said.

The market was viewed technically overbought after another strong close. The nine-day relative strength index for the July contract closed at 76 on Wednesday, up from 74 on Tuesday. Chartists view a level above 70 as an overbought indicator.

Even with the dryness in the U.S. eastern crop belt the soy crop was developing ahead of the five-year pace. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said late Tuesday 81 percent of the U.S. soybean crop was planted as of Sunday, compared with the five-year average of 71 percent.

The agency also reported that 50 percent of the crop had emerged, outpacing the five-year average of 45 percent.

Export business was lackluster, with importers turning to cheaper-priced South American supplies. Taiwan sealed a deal on Wednesday for 60,000 tonnes of Brazilian soybeans.

However, South Korea bought 150,000 tonnes of nongenetically modified U.S. No. 1 soybeans for arrival between February and September next year.

Midwest cash basis bids for soybeans were steady early Wednesday, with U.S. markets quiet. South American soybean and soymeal sales picked up as CBOT markets climbed.

The South American soybean market settled mixed, with July <BSN5> up 2 at $6.82 per bushel. The South American contract continued to lose ground to the U.S. July contract, closing at 3-1/4 premium to SA July.

The soymeal market closed mostly higher on spillover technical strength from soybeans, with meal hitting an 11-month top.

Soyoil futures rebounded from Tuesday's weakness, with July oil <BON5> up 0.35 at 23.50 cents per lb, with deferreds up 0.10 to 0.40 cent.

Malaysian crude palm oil futures fell more than 1 percent on Wednesday on various concerns, from surging output to weak prices of rival soyoil and a possible currency revaluation. The benchmark contract broke through support at 1,400 ringgit per tonne.

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