Oscar Nomination Predictions 02-11-02
*expiry date 02-12-02 @ 5:38 Pacific
Note: I’m no good at this stuff, but there’s no shame
in that. Any individual attempting to guess the whims of a massive group is
doomed to some failure.
Picture
A Beautiful Mind
Black Hawk Down
Lord of the Rings:FOTR
Moulin Rogue
Shrek
Of course I’d rather see In the Bedroom, Gosford Park, or
Memento (not to mention Mulholland Dr.) get a nomination over Shrek, but I
don’t think it’s really going to happen. Miramax seemed unable to pick
either Amelie or In the Bedroom for its big push this year, and will probably
regret that… Since it made a ton of money and didn’t get bashed by the
critics, counting out Harry Potter would be foolish, and a nomination would not
surprise me.
Here’s the group of films I considered contenders:
Ali, A.I., Amelie, A Beautiful Mind, Black Hawk Down, Gosford Park, Harry Potter & the Sorcerer’s Stone, In the Bedroom, Lord of the Rings: FOTR, Memento, Monster’s Ball, Moulin Rogue, Mulholland Dr., Shrek
Director
Well, let’s look at the DGA noms:
Ron Howard – A Beautiful Mind
Peter Jackson – LOTR
Baz Luhrmann – Moulin Rogue
Chris Nolan – Memento
Ridley Scott – Black Hawk Down
… almost crazy enough to work, but for some reason I want to replace Nolan with Robert Altman for Gosford Park, so I will. Lynch or Coen would do nicely, but I would expect something ridiculous like Chris Columbus before either of those two.
So I’m guessing:
Robert Altman – Gosford Park
Ron Howard – A Beautiful Mind
Peter Jackson – LOTR
Baz Luhrmann – Moulin Rogue
Ridley Scott – Black Hawk Down
Actor
The guilds are usually a great place to start, but this
year it seems a little less likely that things will pan out according to SAG:
Russell Crowe – A Beautiful Mind
Kevin Kline – Life as a House
Sean Penn – I Am Sam
Denzel Washington – Training Day
Tom Wilkinson – In the Bedroom
I would strike Kline from that list, first off. Seems just
plain daffy to me. Will Smith’s turn in Ali seems a better choice no matter
how much it tanked, but then again he’s black & the Oscars are supposedly
racist (except for Denzel, naturally). I’d love to see Hackman get a nom as well, so
I’ll predict that too. Crazy! My guesses:
Russell Crowe – A Beautiful Mind
Gene Hackman – The Royal Tennenbaums
Sean Penn – I Am Sam
Tom Wilkinson - In the Bedroom
Denzel Washington – Training Day
Actress
I don’t think the SAG noms were too far off base here.
They put JCo in the Lead category for some reason though… Kidman will probably
get her nomination once she’s back where she belongs.
No big prognostication here… just my guesses:
Halle Berry – Monster’s Ball
Judi Dench – Iris
Nicole Kidman – Moulin Rogue
Sissy Spacek – In the Bedroom
Renee Zellweger – Bridget Jones’ Diary
It’s a fairly weak category, so maybe Naomi Watts, Stockard Channing or Tilda Swinton will sneak in… I can’t say that this race has me too worked up in any case. Zellweger’s nomination shows the power of Miramax when it comes to Oscar noms (not that she wasn’t okay), making me think my Wilkinson omission is all the more dubious.
Supporting Actor
First off, the likely contenders:
Jim Broadbent – Iris
Ian MacKellen – LOTR: TFOTR: TRTHH: RHHA
Ben Kingsley – Sexy Beast
Jon Voight - Ali
I shudder to think what the fifth will be. Ideally, it will
be someone good, such as Jude Law in A.I. or Steve Buscemi in Ghost World. The
SAG committee picked Darth Vader for Life as a House and Ethan Hawke (who was
soooo much better in Tape) for Training Day. Looking at the BAFTA noms, we see
Jim Broadbent for Moulin Rogue, Hugh Bonneville for Iris, Robbie Coltrane &
Colin Firth (Hah!), and then Eddie Murphy for Shrek! Yikes!
Completely random here, but I am going to have a little
faith & guess Buscemi.
Supporting Actress
It’s easy to predict Connelly’s eventual win here. The
hard part seems to be the other nominees. Consider the Gosford Gals (Mirren’s
SAG nom makes her the strongest contender IMHO). Also, there’s the Miramax
factor: they’re pushing Dench, Tomei, and Winslet. All of them have been
nominated before, and I expect three repeats. Cameron Diaz’s role in Vanilla
Sky seems an upsetter, but I would count against it. Wishful thinking : Frances
O’Connor for A.I. or Cate Blanchett for Bandits.
Jennifer Connelly – A Beautiful Mind
Judi Dench – The Shipping News
Helen Mirren – Gosford Park
Marisa Tomei – In the Bedroom
Kate Winslet – Iris
Orig. Screenplay
With the rest, I’m just going to list my guesses:
Gosford Park
Memento
Moulin Rogue
The Royal Tenenbaums
Training Day
Adapt. Screenplay
A Beautiful Mind
Black Hawk Down
In the Bedroom
LOTR: FORT: NLCD: NZJE
Shrek
Foreign Film
Gosh, Who Knows?...
Amelie
Atanjurat: The Fast Runner
Italian for Beginners
No Man’s Land
The Son’s Room
Animated Film
Monsters, Inc.
Shrek
And, for the love of God, please… Waking Life
Cinematography
Amelie
Black Hawk Down
The Man Who Wasn’t There
LOTR
Pearl Harbor
Editing
A Beautiful Mind
Black Hawk Down
LOTR
Memento
Moulin Rogue
Art Direction
Harry Potter
LOTR
The Man Who Wasn’t There
Moulin Rogue
The Royal Tenenbaums
Costumes
Harry Potter
Hedwig & the Angry Inch
LOTR
Moulin Rogue
Royal Tenenbaums
Makeup
LOTR
Moulin Rogue
POTA
(Probable Spoiler – AI)
Visual Effects
AI
LOTR
Pearl Harbor
Sound
AI
Black Hawk Down
The Fast & the Furious
LOTR
Pearl Harbor
Sound Effects Editing
Black Hawk Down
The Fast & the Furious
Pearl Harbor
Song
A Beautiful Mind
Kate & Leopold
LOTR
Pearl Harbor
Vanilla Sky
Score
A.I.
Amelie
A Beautiful Mind
Pearl Harbor
LOTR; FOTR
So, let’s see what this adds up to:
LOTR – 13 ---- seems too high… I must be wrong a few times there.
A Beautiful Mind – 8
Moulin Rogue - 8
Black Hawk Down – 7
Pearl Harbor – 6
The Royal Tenenbaums - 4
Gosford Park – 3
In the Bedroom – 4
Shrek – 3
Iris - 3
Amelie – 3
The Man Who Wasn’t There - 2
Harry Potter - 2
Training Day – 2
The Fast & The Furious – 2
We'll see how this pans out in the morning...