 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Join HyperPumper's Yahoo! Club. It's completely FREE and anonymous!
HyperPumper is making a baby gorilla list and checking it twice.
Want HyperPumper to add your favorite undiscovered baby gorilla to his strong buy list? Or to write about it in his daily column?
Don't worry. HyperPumper will never use your return Email address to spam you.
April 23, 2000 (Sunday 8am EDT, holy hours.)
Do you know why HyperPumper does not pick up women at laundromats?
Any woman who cannot afford a washing machine will not be able to support HyperPumper.
For the same reason, HyperPumper does not buy old economy stocks. In the best of all worlds, they will give you a 15% annual return.
Is that enough?
HyperPumper believes that half a chance to retire young with Internet stocks is better than a 100% certainty of retiring old with old economy stocks.
Pray tell.
April 21, 2000 (Friday 3AM EDT, holy hours.)
Oh yes, 1850. Back then, the gold rush was limited to California. It was the days of budding tele-commerce. "Tele" as in Graham Bell. Not Graham and Dodd, but Alexander Graham Bell.
Today, in the Internet there are a hundred thousand ways of doing commerce. Everybody should have Internet-driven revenues. If you are not an Internet company in 10 years time, you are bunny meat.
On Easter Sunday.
Do not use the rear-view mirror to drive into the future. The future is moving at warp speed 9. Lightspeed is the new benchmark. Forget your speedometer. Think digital.
Mr. Market reflects the shift into the digital era. That's why there will be periodic correction eruptions.
Spew!
HyperPumper believes that in the long run we are all dead. But in the short run, more will leave the Dow and invest in the future.
At warp speed 9.
HyperPumper firmly believes the NASDAQ is undervalued.
Yea. The internet industry is undervalued. The value of 400 of the top Internet companies is about the same value as Microsoft, Intel and Dell combined.
This is like saying the value of Woolworth, Pic'n Save, and Sears is selling for the same price as WalMart -- HyperPumper will take Walmart.
As our colleague, Steve Harmon, likes to say, the important thing is to understand the digital DNA. Having that understanding is extremely rare. Masayoshi Son of Softbank, Dick Li of Pacific Century, John Doerr of Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, and David Wetherell of CMGi seem to understand the digital DNA.
The Internet represents a new digital economy. The economy of commerce. The economy of lower cost and light speed.
We are at the crest of a new economy. Some will cower in fear. Others will cling to the comfort of the familiar.
But many others, HyperPumper included, is putting the pedal to the metal and money on the petal.
Come rain, shine, or margin call.
Updated (Tuesday 7pm EDT, after the bell)
April 18, 2000 (Tuesday noon EDT, trading hours.)
You gotta know when to hold'em
Know when to fold'em
Know when to margin
and know when to buy.
Now's the time to buy back boyz.
HyperPumper paid a visit to his local Schwab office today. The redhaired receptionist -- a dim lightbulb upstairs, but cute nonetheless -- admired HyperPumper's long stocks, and HyperPumper's rhythmic investing style, not to mention the way HyperPumper carries his long, very long, positions. Today, she helped HyperPumper typed his stock symbols into her snug terminal. CMRC. eBAY. TVLY. YHOO. AOL. RNWK! FMKT! VNTR! The musical beat of her fluttering fingers danced across the workstation until HyperPumper could take no more! And then she squeezed the mouse to log HyperPumper out.
Do you want to switch accounts?
!
When HyperPumper was satisfied, HyperPumper scanned the SCH office. SCH was jammed packed with celebrants bringing in more cash to deposit. Construction workers and secretaries on their lunch break clutching checkbooks. The party is back on!
HyperPumper has picked up these little overlooked bargains
in the last two days. Good little bets to get a not-so-little whopping 50%
return by year's end starting from these giveaway prices. Could be much more with a little
luck. As always, HyperPumper recommends diversity so you should spread your margined dollars between these 8:
1) VNTR
2) GO
3) TVLY
4) EMUS
5) EGGS
6) CMRC
7) RNWK
8) DCLK
HyperPumper also recommends loading up on YHOO, AOL, and DCLK if you haven't already. These bargain prices won't last long!
Updated Sunday 6pm, one day before Black Monday.
April 17, 2000 (Monday 8AM EDT, before the bell.)
Hey?! It's not Monday yet. Why is the byline dated Monday?
HyperPumper writes this now, because HyperPumper will not be near a computer terminal on Monday.
Nosirree Nutin!
When Mr. Market opens on Monday, HyperPumper will be blissfully unaware.
Vodka on the rocks.
You can't do anything about it. Why sweat it? A trusty $14.95 bottle and this too shall pass.
By the time HyperPumper sobers up next wednesday, the whole mess will be over. One way or the other.
To quote that Indianopolis driver in Mr. Warren E. Buffet's annual report, ``To finish first, you must first finish.''
So, starting right now, HyperPumper will first finish this here bottle of 95 proof.
Benji Graham, the mythical player, once said ``In the short-run the stock market is a voting machine. In the long-run it is a weighing machine.''
Let somebody else man the polls.
Bottoms up.
If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or, being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or, being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise;
If you can dream � and not make dreams your master;
If you can think � and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with triumph and disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with worn-out tools;
If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: "Hold on!"
If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with kings � nor lose the common touch;
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you;
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run �
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And � which is more � you'll be a Man, my son!
April 14, 2000 (Friday 1am EDT, before the bell.)
There are times to bluff. There are times to regroup.
There are times to tread carefully.
Very carefully.
Once in blue moon, there is time to shut the door. Lock it tight. ... Double check nobody is listening.
Then is the time to cry.
Sob!
April 12, 2000 (Thursday 6am EDT, before the bell.)
HyperPumper has glimpsed over the highest mountaintop. Do not doubt it: HyperPumper has been there.
But this week, HyperPumper is falling deep, deep into the lowest valley.
The valley of fear. A river of regret runs thru it.
Fear of the next phone call from Mr. Broker.
But even from this precipice, sunlight beckons from the highest peaks.
Look up, boyz. See it?
HyperPumper may not make it out of this sorry valley. HyperPumper may not see the peak again. The river currents are not in a forgiving mood.
So HyperPumper takes this, perhaps, last chance to reveal a universal truth.
So listen up, boyz.
The greatest joy. The greatest joy in life. The greatest joy in life is a woman's love.
Kinda mushy, but let's not kid ourselves.
The second greatest joy? The second greatest joy is to make the trip out of the the deepest valley to the highest mountaintop.
When you get there, sit on the peak. Take a wad of toilet paper from your knapsack, and blow your nose into it to give it some weight. Then drop the toilet paper straight down towards the river that runs through the deepest valley.
Count to 1000. S-L-O-W-L-Y. Still no splat?
Hot Damn! You are way up there, aren't you?
God Speed on your journey.
April 10, 2000 (Monday 7pm EDT, after the bell.)
Bye, bye, Miss American Pie,
Bought C-M-R-C on high levy
and the levy ran dry.
Good ol' boyz margined heavy and cry
Only HyperPumper, he never say die!
Steady with his levie,
Turn the pressure on high.
Bye, Bye, sissies and bfly,
See ya at new PacBell Park, guy.
When you have a winner, everything looks like a winner.
When you have a loser, everything looks like a loser.
When HyperPumper has a bat, everything looks like a baseball.
So git outta the way!
April 9, 2000 (Sunday 9pm EDT)
Guess where HyperPumper will be at 9am EDT tuesday morning?
Section 3, Box seat #8.
PacBell Park, the City by the Bay.
Opening Day.
YHOO? AOL? DCLK? CMRC? RNWK?
Hang on to'em. Check out the $40 off sale at Reel.com.
Where have all the young men gone?
Gone to see baseball, everyone.
Where is dat flying nun?
Will daytraders ever learn?
When will those gamblers earn?
You don't spit into the wind.
You gotta ride the baby apes.
Don't yank on loan ranger's jock
Don't tug HyperPumper's cape.
Don't you mess with Hyper's stock.
Where have all the young men gone?
Timing markets everyone.
Where is dat flying nun?
Daytraders will never learn,
Daytraders will never earn.
Stop and smell the flowers, boyz.
April 8, 2000 (Saturday 1am EDT)
These are the halcyon days.
The thrill of Yahoo! and the agony of the feat. Height and abyss. The slow, rhythmic movement of HyperPumper's stock in and out of Mr. Nasdaq. The days of trading and the nights of thunder.
HyperPumper has seen over the Mountain Top. Do not go there, my friends.
Nomo arigatto.
These are the days of spring baseball. The days and nights when salty ocean breezes roll briskly across PacBell Park (NYSE:PACB), outside where Willie Mays stands guard as inside where Barry Bonds strokes baseball into McCovey Cove in San Francisco Bay.
So wad the fak happen when HyperPumper was gone?!
Can't HyperPumper leave y'all for one minute?
Light volume as the bullpens loosen up their rested arms. Up, down, up, down, up. Either HyperPumper is having a great date or Dusty Baker is over-using his bullpen again. Likewise, Mr. Nasdaq is shyly, but surely wandering back from the precipice.
Flirt, flit, flirt.
That's what HyperPumper was doing on a faraway Carribean beach while you were sweating out the 580 point abyss last tuesday.
The thrill of glory and the agony of defeat. Height and abyss. The slow, rhythmic movement of HyperPumper's stock in and out of the Siren. The days of trading and the nights of thunder. Always, the Siren beckons.
75 dollars FREE! if you open up a new account.
The call of the wild Net.
Grandpappy, can HyperPumper borrow another million? It's for a margin call, that's all.
HyperPumper'll go with you to see a ball game if you lend the million?
Next Saturday?
HyperPumper and HyperPumper's Grandpappy.
These are HyperPumper's halcyon days.
March 28, 2000 (Tuesday 2AM EDT)
Wad up? HyperPumper is feeling a tad tired and, so, will take a few days off. HyperPumper has earned this perogative. HyperPumper will be back to whoop it up next week when YHOO blasts off.
HyperPumper recommends every investor take a few days off once in a while. It is good for you, and good for your portfolio. There is no need to eyeball quality bluechips like YHOO, AOL, DCLK, CMRC, and eBAY every day. They are volatile, yes, so just relax and leave them alone.
Surf the big waves, and rid'em up to the Golden MountainTop with HyperPumper. The secret is to relax. William Hurt, the actor, said "The secret to good acting is to avoid overacting. Sometimes the best reaction is to be still and do nothing." HyperPumper believes the same applies to investing.
Most of the time, the best trade is to do nothing. It's baseball season. Watch the ball games. Watch ESPN, not CNBC. Enjoy life. That's wad it all about, boyz.
HyperPumper is secure in his knowledge that YHOO will quadruple within the next 2 years or so. Maybe even crack 1 trillion market cap in the best of all worlds.
If you cannot go cold turkey on HyperPumper's diary, read some of this until HyperPumper returns.
Till then, peace be with you all. Be long, be strong.
March 25, 2000 (Saturday 1AM EDT)
The major news services are abuzz in the rumor that MSFT has made an offer to settle. According to CNBC and CNN reports, the Justice Dept has barristers reviewing the Mr. Softie's settlement proposal as HyperPumper writes this.
Cisco, today, for the very first time, passed Mr. Softie as the largest market cap company in the world.
Most outlets agreed that the settlement talks now center around behavioral limits rather than a breakup. An exception was ZDNet, which hyped the DoJ's insistence that court-ordered remedies not be a mere slap on the wrist. The ZDNet article harked back to the 1994 consent decree, which, one could argue, failed even to crimp Microsoft's style.
One reason the DoJ needs a settlement is that any guilty ruling will certainly mean a multiyear appeal from Mr. Softie. The long, stretched out appeal will outlast the Washington careers of most, if not all, of the DOJ bureacrats involved in the case. Indeed, Janet Reno and her assistants will all -- thankfully -- have new jobs in the private sector after the Presidential election. These DOJ lawyers want to bag the credit for finishing the MSFT lawsuit -- ostensibly the greatest antitrust case in this decade -- on their resumes before leaving Washington. But the government's going to have to stand in front of a press conference and tell the world that it has surrendered this seemingly overwhelming litigation advantage in return for satisfactory terms. Bottom line: the DOJ has to save face by negotiating a settlement that does not make people snicker.
Did HyperPumper mention that HyperPumper hates lawyers?
The Washington Post chatted up the National
Association of Attorneys General in Washington and found - surprise, surprise! -
dissension. Lawyers from four states (out of the 19 that are
pursuing the antitrust case) overtly favored remedies milder than a
breakup. At that time, Microsoft intended to have a new
settlement proposal on the table as soon as Monday. However, CNBC reported late friday that Mr. Softie has already anted up a fresh settlement proposal.
USA Today ran a Bloomberg story about a
poll concluding that Americans consider the antitrust trial a waste of
public funds. Eighty percent of the respondents favor a settlement;
only 17 percent want Microsoft broken up. HyperPumper does not know how many of those voluntarily responding to the survey were also MSFT shareholders.
HyperPumper's 3 month price target for Mr. Softie in event of a settlement is 165 and a split within 6 months.
March 24, 2000 (Friday 8am EDT, before the bell)
HyperPumper feels good about Commerce One, eBAY, WIT Capital (WITC), and YHOO today. AMZN may also have a good day on Mary Meeker's comments this morning -- although AMZN is not on HyperPumper's portfolio.
Commerce One will be unveiling a new market for defense contractors. This is another benchmark achievement for the nascent B2B industry.
A Microsoft (MSFT) antitrust settlement is imminent. HyperPumper expects a 20% pop on the news on top of the recent runup. If it's good news, an even greater pop is possible. Will Cisco overtake MSFT in market cap?
HyperPumper loves those new FreeMarkets (FMKT) tv commercials that have recently started to appear on various business oriented news shows.
If anyone has insight into why the broker and underwriter stocks have been all running up so strongly recently, post the answer on HyperPumper's message board.
You've read this far, so you deserve a treat. HyperPumper feels that a potential Yahoo! & eBAY partnership deal is still alive. Call it HyperPumper's intuition.
Trade hearty. It's friday.
March 24, 2000 (Friday 1am EDT, before the bell)
(1) Go to a YHOO board.
(2) Tab up the ages of the posters for the last 250 posts.
This may take an hour or two. No pain, no gain, eh?
(3) If the median age is under 29 and at least 5% of the posts are by people under 20, Strong Buy!
(4) If the median age is over 50, sell or short. But ...
(5) If 25% or more of the posters are over 65, stay clear of the stock! Just read the posts and have some belly laughs... everything
they say on that board is totally irrelevant to the real economy.
March 23, 2000 (Thursday 6pm EDT, after the bell)
HyperPumper likes the looks of ATHM for next week. Get in early. This long dormant infrastructure giant is ready to wake up.
HyperPumper is optimistic that Mr. Nasdaq will run up to a new high within the next 2 weeks.
Excite@Home Corp spurted prematurely more than ten percent at one point in trading Wednesday inspired by the strength of new data showing the company grew faster than any other major Internet portal during the month of February. Even faster than the GO Network's ``Do You want to become a Millionaire'' -- inspired site!
Media Metrix announced earlier this week that Excite@Home's Internet audience increased to 30.2
million unique visitors in February, up from 25.4 million in January.
Based on the Media Metrix stats, Excite received a substantial boost over Valentine's Day from its acquisition of the online greeting card company Bluemountainarts.com.
HyperPumper had been concerned that Excite was failing to keep pace with the growth rate of the leading Internet portals like Yahoo!, AOL, and Go.com. But it appears from the looks of the MediaMatrix data that the ATHM strategy of converting the Bluemountainarts eyeballs to Excite@Home ones is starting to pay off. Now, ATHM must focus on monetizing these eyeballs, and also multiplying them. Bluemountainarts is a free card site, with cash flow streams from advertising and Ecommerce.
Excite@Home has also been steadily increasing its subscriber acquisition rate. After a series of delays and unfortunate mishaps with AT&T and local governments with regard to their exclusivity contract, Excite@Home is apparently picking up steam in its cable installation rate. It is also learning how to recruit paying subscribers at a more efficient rate even as competition from DSL providers start to heat up. HyperPumper wll try to come up with some numbers for you here this weekend. Keep in touch.
Same channel for updates on the ATHM situation! Be back or be flak, Jack.
Disclaimer: HyperPumper's Diary and any opinions discussed herein are presented for entertainment purposes only. HyperPumper may or may not be long securities he discusses here. HyperPumper does not currently have any short positions. HyperPumper does not recommend that anybody act on the opinions expressed herein, which are presented solely for entertainment purposes, without doing independent due diligence.
