Military
perspectives on Iraq
By V.R. Raghavan
INDIAN DEFENCE forces are the only entity whose voice is
not yet heard in the debate on sending troops to Iraq. They
are, quite rightly, neutral in the political debate swirling
in the country. That does not mean that Indian military leaders
do not ask hard questions of their political masters. It would
not be wrong to say that in the rush to accede to the request
from the United States for a sizeable Indian force, some restraint
has been introduced by the military seeking critical clarifications
from the political leadership. Like a professional and loyal
force, it will abide by the final political decision. That
does not mean such doubts and questions should be lightly
set aside.
It was Cicero who wrote in one of his letters to Atticus
that “I prefer the most unjust peace to the justest
war that was ever waged.” The Indian military leadership
would not be remiss in wondering over the nature of the proposed
role in Iraq. The war waged in Iraq was unjust enough. The
military action now continuing is not ushering in peace either.
Will the Indian military be asked to continue a war declared
unjust by the nation’s Parliament? Or will it be asked
to impose an unjust peace by force?
The Indian force is required by the U.S. Command to be in
the Kurd-controlled northern part of Iraq. It would therefore
relieve the U.S. 101 Division that is currently operating
in the area. The U.S. Division is apparently needed to bolster
the faltering military control in central Iraq. Baghdad, Falujah,
the holy cities of Karbala and Najaf have seen scenes of the
U.S. military being attacked. Military ‘pacification’
of central Iraq is essential to establish a new government.
The ratios of troops to space demand the deployment of a greater
number of American troops in the Iraqi political heartland.
Indian troops will thus enable the U.S. to impose a military
dominance through which a political outcome can be enforced.
In the Kurd-held areas, two challenges will face Indian military
commanders. The Kurds are sharply divided into two warring
groups. They have held their peace on account of U.S. pressure
and the hope of a political role for them in Iraq. That outcome
is not even on the horizon since there is no legitimate government
in Baghdad. What is certain is that if Iraq’s territorial
and ethnic integrity is to be ensured, as promised by the
U.S., the Kurds are likely to get no more than a subsidiary
role in the future governance of Iraq. Add to this the substantial
oil resources of the northern areas and the Kurds’ desire
to control them and the situation is fraught with both political
volatility and military turbulence.
Military leaders justifiably demand to know the political
objectives that are to be obtained through military operations.
In Iraq, the political objectives would be determined not
by New Delhi but by Washington. The decision and judgment
of Paul Bremer, the U.S.’ chief civilian administrator
for Iraq, would be the critical input in determining political
and, therefore, military objectives.
In other words, he would instruct Indian commanders on which
political groups would be militarily subdued or marginalised.
U.S. interests, as viewed through its geo-political prism,
would determine Indian military operations. The United Nations
Security Council Resolution 1483 does not clarify this; nor
was it expected to. The Foreign Secretary, Kanwal Sibal’s
reference to “grey areas” in the Resolution points
to this and other problematical aspects.
Indian military commanders have for long been wary of vague
and unclear political directions. For 50 years, operations
in India’s Northeast have been conducted without political
clarity. The Sri Lanka experience remains embedded in Indian
military memory as an example of ambivalent, uncertain and
unclear political direction on the strategic purposes of military
operations. Iraq will witness Indian commanders receiving
command directions from U.S. authorities.
By the nature of U.S. strategic needs, the operations will
need to be conducted in ways that will go against Indian interests
in the region and Indian public sentiment. Indian military
commanders will be left in an extremely invidious situation.
They will have no support from Delhi in reconciling the demands
of a U.S. chain of command against their understanding of
ethical and just war principles. No greater disservice can
be done to Indian troops.
The demand for Indian forces in Iraq is evidence of a significant
conceptual shift in the U.S. approach to force projection.
A half century following the Second World War saw the U.S.
relying on bases in foreign countries and its own troops stationed
abroad to maintain its strategic control. The U.S. leadership
now believes that technological advances in military capabilities
give it advantages thus far unavailable. Such advantages are
also not going to be available to any other power in the foreseeable
future.
Distant combat through missiles and unchallenged air operations
can now support short and decisive campaigns by the U.S. of
the kind seen in Afghanistan and Iraq. Such operations are
short on casualties and therefore easy on collateral political
damage at home. This also requires that after U.S. military
power attains the objectives of defeating the adversary militarily,
other countries’ troops are required to control the
seized areas. This is witnessed in Afghanistan where a non-U.N.
Force is operating under European leadership with NATO assets.
Indian military capability and efficiency place its forces
high on the list of countries that can be used to work the
new U.S. concept. The reality of a high tech military power
using low and medium technology forces to work its interests
should not be missed by Indian policy makers. The reality
will be attractively packaged in euphemisms of strategic partnerships
and partnerships for peace. Indian policy makers may even
be offered their Holy Grail of Security Council membership.
The fact however will remain of a smaller power buying major
power partnership through provisioning competent military
labour and paying for it.
The military is the easiest instrument to apply. It responds
fast, gets to the scene of action fast and produces results
quickly. Political leaders the world over grasp this instrument
in haste and live to regret the decision later. Pulling back
a military also imposes costs. The political costs of a pull-back
of the military from Iraq, after a flawed choice of deployment,
can have serious political costs.
It is the political leadership which must therefore ask the
questions the Indian military is seeking answers to. Rushing
to Iraq without clarity on the fundamentals of the national
interest will place the military in the wrong place, at the
wrong time, and for the wrong reasons.
The burden of maintaining a force in Iraq will tax the capacity
of Indian authorities to breaking point. Maintaining the IPKF
across the Palk Straits in Sri Lanka was bad enough. A supply
line that extends by sea from Mumbai to Basra and then by
land across Iraq to Mosul will deter any logistician. The
costs cannot even be contemplated. Within weeks of Indian
forces reaching Kurd areas, we can expect a ‘Mosul surcharge’
on income tax to fund the enterprise. The impact on internal
turnovers of troops from Jammu and Kashmir and the Northeast
to the hinterland for rest and retraining will also be felt.
Among other things, a society is judged by the value it places
on soldiers. India’s leaders and society would have
placed themselves in an indefensible position by asking their
military to operate against the interests of the Iraqi people.
That this would be done under international media scrutiny
and in the face of restrained but sullen reactions from Arab
states in the region is not going to help India’s image
either.
The Indian military functions on the basis of trust and confidence
in its ranks. The question often asked is whether political
leaders can keep trust with the military. Rushing to Iraq,
without settling the terms of engagement and policy guidelines,
will reinforce the belief in the military that the political
leadership cannot be trusted to keep its interests in mind.
India and the United States have every need for working together
in the international arena. This is in the mutual interests
of the two countries. Their mutual interests in the international
order emerging in the post 9/11 era, given India’s own
terrorist traumas, need not however involve cooperation in
military campaigns that are on the wrong side of Indian interests.
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