Bubble may burst (ST Sept 14, 2002)

SINGAPOREANS rushing to cash in on Shanghai's property boom need to tread cautiously. The financial hub's municipal government may introduce measures to curb the city's real-estate boom, reported The Standard.

It follows a warning by its consumer watchdog of the emergence of a "property bubble".

The Shanghai Consumer Price Bureau, in a report issued last week and published partly in the Guangzhou-based Southern Weekend, cited three reasons for its concern:

About 53 per cent of the home buyers are from other provinces or overseas, and many bought properties in the city for investment

Some property developers have, through clever promotional campaigns, created an atmosphere of strong demand

Several Shanghai residents have bought apartments or houses as investments. In the first quarter of this year, property prices rose to 4,931 yuan ($1,047) per square metre - a 30 per cent increase year on year.

Prices of high-end properties rose by as much as 100 per cent, with buyers from overseas, other provinces and Shanghai (pictured here) each accounting for a third of the market.

But leasing prices have declined. That is a sign of weakening demand.

The price of villas along central Huaihai Road dropped to US$4,000 ($7,032) per sq m from a peak of US$7,000 per sq m a few years ago. Meanwhile, supply is massive.

At the end of July, developers had 100 million sq m of residential and commercial property projects underway. About 80 per cent of them were high-end residential. Southern Weekend said, however, although there were indications Shanghai's property market was overheating, the city was not ready for measures to curb prices.

The property boom has also fuelled growth in the banking sector. In the first half, total property mortgage loans from commercial banks in Shanghai surged 19.63b yuan - up 30 per cent year on year. During the same period, new personal mortgage loans (21.66b yuan) accounted for 88 per cent of total property sales (24.63b yuan).

The amount was an indication that banks had relaxed mortgage rules to compete for customers.

An official at the Shanghai branch of the People's Bank of China said: "If property prices fluctuate, the ability of some investors to pay their debts might be affected."

In a recent research report, the Bank of China urged banks to be selective when issuing new property development loans.

Singaporeans have big stake in China's real estate market

SINGAPOREAN businessmen are very optimistic about Shanghai. It's their favourite investment destination in China. Just two weeks ago, Keppel Land and CapitaLand proved their confidence in China's financial hub. Keppel Land and its partners officially opened the US$110 million ($193.39m) 25-storey Ocean Towers office building.

CapitaLand had a topping-up for its US$350m, 45-storey Raffles City office tower. There are about 3,000 Singaporeans living in Shanghai, the highest number in any Chinese city.

Multinational corporations are flocking to set up offices in there, giving a boost to office rentals. Mr Kevin Wong, managing director of Keppel Land, said property prices have appreciated sharply but the bubble is not about to burst as there is sustainable demand from local residents and foreign investors.

But further price increases are likely to be moderate as the government will want to ensure a balance between demand and supply.

Singapore firms are committed to invest a further $3.3 billion in 400 projects in the rapidly growing China market in the first half of this year - a 28 per cent jump in the number of projects compared to the same period last year.

The grand total of all Singapore projects in China is expected to cross 10,000 before the end of the year. It has reached 9,875 to date, according to the latest figures from the Chinese embassy in Singapore. 1
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