2000MonteCarlo400

Shh Shh Shh...Be with ya in just a second. (...Carry the 5.......divided..by....minus....) Wow! There may be somethin' to this "car number times tire pressure plus pi" thing afterall.

Before I ever sit down and start poundin' out this little note, I always run around the web diggin' up facts and averages and stuff. While we all tend to go with our heart and pick our own drivers to win, I wanna think that I'm basing most of this weekly tripe on a more tangible logic. NASCAR just has too many stats to ignore. All these numbers must mean something. C'mon. I may like Michael Waltrip, but ya don't see me predictin' him to win, do ya? (..Okay, but that was WEEKS ago) My point is, it takes more than the emotional side of your brain to pick 'em. It takes the logical, "number" side too.

And trust me. You'll not find a numb-er brain anywhere else.

First. I'm not gonna start borin' you with a buncha talk about algorithms and calculuses....calculeese...calculi....whatever. Truth be told, I've no idea whether ou Vice President has rhythm. I know he can't dance. And the only calculus I could find was one of those cheap little solar powered jobs. But bein' it's kinda cloudy here today, THAT'S of little use. So, by the light of my own dim wit, I've taken a number 2 and started cipherin' the old fashioned way....Pencil. Paper. And barefeet.

Second. Do you know how many NASCAR websites there are in the whole wide world wide web world? There are more facts out there than a Jack Webb script. And more stats than you can shake a hospital emergency room at. (Hey this is fun.) More data than a Star Trek android. More trivia than you could pursue. More minutiae than an hour could ever hold...More stew than Dinty. Moore Mary than Tyler.....(Whoa, boy. Deep breaths, Jim.) Anyway, there must be...pfffft...I don't know...at least 10, maybe 15 sites out there. And all of 'em chock full of anything you need to know. Hate to shamelessly plug Sue's www.victory-lap.com but, given a reasonable amount of time in her website, I think I could tell you your favorite driver's shoe size. Make me a sidebet, and I'll show ya how he ties 'em.

Third. College algebra is a faint memory. I haven't "x+y"ed in years. (Just ask my ex....And ask her "Why?") I may not quite retrieve every little rule or nuance of all those formulas. My math is about as sharp as the tip of this eraser-worn pencil. Those of you with a Texas Instrument and a "Show Me" Sentiment may find an occasional error in the additions or equations. But know that my mathematic intentions are sincere, and try to gimme the benefit of the drought. I simply wanna show how all these numbers can spell out the finish, IF you know how to mix the facts incorrectly.

....I mean, "IN CORRECTLY!" (Damn spacebar)

Alright. Each equation is derived from the CAR NUMBER'S LAST WIN. Each formula varies driver to driver. There's a track difficulty rating. (1 for ovals two mile or more in length. 2 for ovals that are one to two miles. 3 for short tracks, and 4 for road courses.) Plus any hunches from qualifyin'.    Round it up or down and drop any negatives.....Please...Don't try to follow.

Oh, and Dave...Dave Foster....Why don't just stop right here, Bud. It get's pretty dangerous for a Tennessee grad from here on out. Go find yourself something with lots of pictures....

Okay Jeff - Steve last Parked his #1 car in victory lane on 8-13-2000 at the Glen at the Bud on the Frontier Crossing....dot com. Soooo....Year of last win divided by (the month times the day) minus #1 then doubled, minus qualifyin (12th) and then minus last winning track rating (4)............2000 / (8X13) -1 X 2 - 12 - 4..... Steve will come in 20th tonight.

Got that?

Sue, Jeff, Stacy, Ted, and Gordon snaked his #24 a victory at Sear Point on 6-25-2000. 2000 / (6X25) -24 X 2 + 13 (because he has an even numbered car) - 4...Jeff comes in 12th.

I'm already lost. Let's lose the scratch pads.

Paul Parkay - Dale Junior last jumped on the #8's hood here at Richmond back in the spring. (5-6-2000)    Add it all up and find the sqaure root (since he's a rookie) and ya come up with a 10th.

Mollie - The #14 car hasn't carried the checkers since Bobby Allison won in Montgomery back on 12-8-1968. Once you factor in a great qualifyin' run, an Alabama Gang connection, and apply the AARP discount, Rick Mast and AJ seem poised for a top-15 day.....Maybe even top-14...

Sue - It was 6-2-1991 when a kid named Ken was Schradin up Dover in the #25 car for its last win. That means that if my numbers are right, Nadeau should come in 270th....Tell ya what. I'll toss in a square root since it's so close to his birthday. 16th

The #7 car last saw the checkered flag on 8-11-1996 with Geoffrey Bodine piloting around Watkins Glen. Michael will crawl into the old 'Underbird' wannabe and stroll in 11th...

Ward Burton's #22 last won Darlington on 3-19-2000. But my abacus says he'll rattle home 30th...All 'bacus of a wreck.

Paul & Kim - Marky Martin's been Livin' la Vida Loca on Saturdays. But the #6 hasn't Veni Vidi Vici-ed in Cup since Martinsville back on 4-9-2000. Stop beatin round the Busch, Marky and try "Winn"ing one on Sunday...or Satuday night. 3rd.

Dave - The last time that the #40 took a victory lap, Pete Hamilton won drivin' a winged Dodge around Talladega on 8-23-1970. Sterling's motor "blowed up" during qualifying and starts 38th. And unless he sprouts wings, I'd be willin' to bet a ten he see's nothin' better than a 24th.

Sue - The Melling #9 won at Daytona on 7-6-1991 with who else but Bill Elliott, of coors, on board. Awesome Bill could toss some really fine races out back then. Yet, if he could just have waited a couple weeks, the numbers would've worked out perfectly for the Meager Stacy...28th.

Jeff & Doc - Tony rode the #20 up the ramp back at New Hamster on 7-9-2000. Add a little here. Take away a little there. And the numbers say the rat finishes 18th. But I gotta give him better than that. He's good. He's aggressive. He's.......startin' beside Jeff Gordon?....18th. No better....and dented. (C'mon, Jeff.)

Doc - The ONLY time a #60 has rolled into victory lane was when Bill Rexford won back on 5-30-1950. The ONLY time a #60 car has ever won. Ya think Geoffrey's gonna threaten a half century old tradition like that? Yeah, right. Like he could. 23rd.

Sue - Did ya see that the Mighty Casey is at bat. Coach Evernham has slapped decals on a....Ford (?) and sent Atwood in. John Rostek drove the last #19 to the winner's circle at Phoenix back on 4-3-1960. I don't think Casey's grandparents weren't even born then.   The kid's destined to finish 36th.

Tony & Lori - I'm confusin' all the recent Rusty wins. Pocono? Michigan? Oh yeah Bristol just a couple of weeks ago. Ya know, this formula of mine doesn't work that well with such recent dates. And the fact that he's won 4 races so far excludes him from any of my other equations.

So I'm stumped...I got one old formula left in my bag, but it's only for predictin' the winner.....You don't suppose????.

Okay, everybody take your car's number and double it....now,add 4 (for the number of corners at this track)....Now, divide it in half....Now, subtract your car's number......Who's number did you end up with????

Well, I'll be.....

Jim Nelson
Research Mathematician