A FORECASTING FIRST: GIMME AN 'O'

Sat., Sept. 30 1995
The Associated Press

MIAMI - A new tropical storm is spinning just off Mexico's northern Yucatan Peninsula, making this one of the busiest tropical storm seasons in history. The storm's current path would take it into Louisiana.

Forecasters named the system Tropical Storm Olivia; the first time they've gotten to "O" since they began naming Atlantic storms in 1950. Olivia is the 15th named storm of this busy Atlantic hurricane season.

Early predictions of Olivia's path put the storm near the Louisiana coast on Tuesday. Hurricane Center forecasters caution, however, that such long-term predictions have an error rate of 300 miles either way.

Some of the 1,452 year-round residents of Grand Isle, Louisiana., were taking no chances. Grand Isle is a 7-mile-long island 110 miles south of New Orleans, and it is near the center of the storm's current forecast track.

Mayor Andy Valence said if the storm stays on its current path, everyone would probably leave the island by Sunday.

The government of Mexico issued a tropical storm warning for the northeastern portion of the Yucatan from Cozumel and Cancun to Progreso as heavy rain caused flooding and closed ports in eastern Mexico.

Forecasters predicted more than 10 inches of rain could fall in the Yucatan and western Cuba.

The slow-moving Olivia, with top winds of 50 mph, was about 40 miles northwest of Merida, Mexico, and expected to strengthen as it moved into the Gulf of Mexico.

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