Casey's Place
by Rich Casey, N5CSU, MC 1081

(c) 1995 by the author

   As the phenomenon known as the Internet continues to explode, it's 
difficult to imagine what it will be like in five years.  If you were with us 
at StarText a decade ago, you'll remember how thrilled we were when 
our 300 baud modem would even connect to another computer!  As 
early pioneers of what is now called cyberspace, we knew we were on 
to something big, but I doubt any of us could have imagined what was 
to follow.

  Were there signposts along the way?   In fact, there were folks that 
knew what was coming, and two laws that now seem to be converging.

  First there was Moore's Law, coined quite a while ago by Gordon 
Moore, chairman of Intel.  He predicted back in the 80's that the number 
of transistors on a chip would double every 18 months. Further, if you 
take any number (n) of transistors and put them on a chip, you will get 
n-squared performance from that chip.  Thus, every eighteen months, 
there would be a quantum increase in computing power unleashed on 
the world. Futurist George Gilder called this trend of ever-increasing 
power and density the "law of the microcosm" in a book published in 
1989.

  Looking back, we have indeed seen an increase in computing power 
occurring quite regularly, as the 386 makes way for the 486, then the 
586 (Pentium).  Already, the long shadow of the 686 is seen regularly in 
the trade press. 

  So, the power of the computer chip is spiraling up and out, but it is not 
the only trend.  There is another law that speaks to the interconnecting 
of these computers. 

  Bob Metcalfe, the inventor of Ethernet and founder of 3Com, was 
attempting to sell the value of interconnected computers back in the 
early 80's. Convinced that when enough computers were connected 
together, the network would achieve "critical mass," he came up with a 
graph that showed just that.  As the number of computers increased, he 
theorized, the performance and value derived are "squared."  That 
maxim has since become known as Metcalfe's law. 

  Bob Metcalfe still stands by his theory.  He thinks Ethernet achieved 
critical mass in 1983, and TCP/IP ten years later.   George Gilder, never 
one to miss a trend, coined this the "law of the telecosm" (book to 
follow).  

  Put these two factors together and you have the explosion known as 
the Internet.  As more and more powerful computers interconnect, there 
promises to be an explosion in information value to the user.  As Scott 
McNealy, CEO of Sun Microsystems, has always said-- the network is 
the computer.  In the expanding world of the Internet, he is right on the 
money.

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Rich can be reached via e-mail at StarText 1081, or on the Internet at 
casey@acm.org.  His home page is : 
http://www.metronet.com/(tilde)rcasey.