League Wrap Up (After Oct 31 games)

The story of the year is, of course, "How good is Thurston?"  I picked Thurston to win league last summer, but chickened out right before week zero and moved Springfield to the lead.  I decided to go to Thurston's opener against Corvallis and moved Thurston back to the top forever.  Fast paced, quick, strong, skilled athletes with incredible endurance.  Lot's of seniors and players experienced in going far in state playoffs in several sports - third in basketball and state runnerups in baseball.  This school is on a roll.  I think the most incredible thing is that they have not had a let down. They always play at a high level of intensity.  They also don't choke.  They could have tightened up at Silke in the Springfield game, when ahead just 7-0 right before half, the Miller's tossed the ball to the 3 yard line on a fourth down play......  Looks like Thurston is going into the locker room up 7-0 at half.  Bam, Pearson goes 97 yards.  But even that quick strike score didn't crack the Millers.  The Millers kept coming, getting into the red zone in the third quarter, before fumbling. Then the Colts got focused and broke their backs.

Injuries and suspensions played a huge roll for everyone else.  It took away some of the joy for spectators to not see Spencer Phillips in several games for Willamette due to a concussion.  He finished fourth in league in passing yards, but played only 2 and a half games.  The Miller's lost Dusty Jarvis very early in the Thurston game.  While fans got the opportunity to watch Mike Travess have a stellar year as the Miller feature back after Jarvis went down, we have to wonder what the Miller O and D would have been like with both Travess and Jarvis.  North's Mike Bibbee gained 120 yards in his only league game (against the Millers) before he was lost for the season.  Not only would he have been huge for North on O, but I found out he was a huge force on the Highlander D.   Churchill probably was hurt least by injuries, but they probably benefitted most by their timing of facing the teams with problems.  They caught Marshfield without their QB and a few other players, then Willamette without the Wolverine QB, then Springfield the week after they lost Jarvis (Springfield won).

Exciting players galore!
I saw Thurston play five times. Pearson was as good or better than we all hoped - throwing and running.  But it was the multitude of receivers who got involved throughout the season that was really exciting.  You couldn't go to a game counting on seeing Pearson link up with just one of two key receivers.  Four Colt receivers made all league.  Wright, Galbreath, Woody and Urness.  You could have thrown in Anderson, but he made it as a back, and Hoover and Ryan.  Anderson really stepped up at running back in several games.  The league finale against the Pirates was particularly impressive.
It was fun watching the Thurston O line and D line and LB's.  Pretty dominant.  The only time I thought they might have met their match was early in the Marshfield contest, but that didn't last too long.  Maybe I was just hoping my Pirates would solve the Thurston riddle.
The Pirates Kyle Brown had three kick off returns for TD's of 90 yards or  more. Junior Qb Tedder threw 5 TD's with no INT's in league - in just four games.  He also finished 7th in league in rushing. 
Churchill's Blake Determan led the league in receiving.  That's a tall order when you are the go to guy and everyone knows it.  He found the end zone six  times in five league games.  Teammate junior Sam Graham took some pressure off of Determan and should be a factor next year. Qb Erik Knapp threw 10 league TD's versus 4 INT's, a good ratio, and rushed for over 50 yards per game out of the Qb position.
Springfield's Mike Travess had just 4 carries in the Miller's first two league games, but ended up the second leading rusher in league.  Reciever/DB Zady Navarro somehow ended up third in receiving yardage.  I don't know how he did it, he's quick but he was out on the field all of the time, running long routes then covering long routes.
Willamette's RB Craig Loper set the new 6 team MWL league rushing record by over 100 yards.  QB Spencer Phillips averaged 228 yards per game in two and a half games.  Receiver Kenny Gebhardt only caught 9 passes in league but averaged 27 yards per catch.
I got to see North Eugene's Michael Bibbee in their game against Springfield.  I'm glad I did.  He didn't play another league game.  The Highlander's needed the running balance.  Balance would have opened up the passing game even more for QB Keller and receiver's Shea Slayton and Tyler VanDerhoff, both of whom had 18 catches in league.

Their were many more fun players to watch, and I didn't mention D players...

Next year????  High percentage of seniors throughout the league this year. 
Returning QB's... Chris Ling from Springfield, Kyle Tedder from Marshfield and Jacob Hughes from Willamette. 
Only one returning all league RB, Rafael Hildago.  But don't forget that Michael Bibbee from North returns and Pirates Ryan Scoville looked great in the few carries he had.
Quite a few receivers return.  Hopefully each team comes through with a good QB.  Returning receivers include Taylor Woodke from Willamette, Kyle Wright and Andrew Woody (both all league) from Thurston,  Jake Becker of the Millers,  Talo Silver and Chris Krajcir from Marshfield and Churchill's Sam Graham (all league) and Taylor Derlacki.
If Thurston keeps scoring at the high level of this year, they will be able to rely on returning kicker Gustavo Muchaca.
Not counting punters, no team returns more than two all league defensive players.  1st team DL Kraig Akins returns as a junior next year for the Colts, and lining up behind him at LB will be the league's defensive player of the year, Kyle Wright.

Post  Week 6 Standing Prediction
RG Pre - League

Full article printed 10-1
After Week 4 (Sep 26)
FINAL MWLnow
Pre-League
prediction
MWLnow Pre 0 Week After Week 1 After Week 2 After Week 3
Thurston Thurston Springfield Thurston Thurston Thurston
Willamette Willamette Thurston Willamette Willamette Willamette
Churchill Springfield Willamette Springfield Springfield Springfield
Springfield Churchill Churchill Churchill Churchill Churchill
Marshfield Marshfield Marshfield Marshfield Marshfield Marshfield
North Eugene North Eugene North Eugene North Eugene North Eugene North Eugene
 
After Week 5 (Oct 3) After Week 6 (Oct 10) After Week 7 (Oct 17) Final Prediction
After Week 8
(Oct 24)
Non League
Opponents Record
Playoff opponent
Thurston Thurston        Thurston Thurston    5-0 13-26 #1 host S. Sky #2
Churchill Churchill       Springfield Churchill    3-2 18-31 #2 @ PIL #2
Springfield Springfield    Churchill Marshfield  3-2 36-13 #3 host IMC #4
Willamette Willamette    Marshfield Springfield 3-2 32-18
Marshfield Marshfield     Willamette Willamette 21-26

5A 2008 Bracket

North Eugene North Eugene North Eugene North Eugene 24-25
 
LEAGUE FINISH PREDICTIONS & COMMENTS AFTER WEEK 8 (After Oct 24 games)

1. Thurston 8-0
Misc:
The Colts and Pirates have split their last six games.  This will be a great game to watch if Colt QB Tym Pearson is healthy.  The Pirates will try and match Pearson with junior QB Kyle Tedder, who has completed over 50 percent of his league passes with four TD's and no INT's.  In the backfields you'll see the leagues number two, three, four (Pearson), and sixth (Tedder) leading rushing leaders.   Marshfield's Kyle Brown is averaging over 100 yards per game rushing and has three kickoff returns for TD's this year.  The Colt's will try and match Brown with Devin Anderson, who is also averaging over 100 yards per league game.
The major difference is in the passing game.  The Colts feature the leagues top three receivers, Kyle Wright, Josh Galbreath and Danny Urness.  Their next four receivers, Devin Anderson, Trevor Ryan, Kyle Hoover and Andrew Woody are in the top twenty.  The Pirate receivers can't be overlooked though.  They played their league opener without Tedder at QB and watched their backup QB's get injured.  Five receivers have stepped up for the Pirates, seniors Levi Meline,  Jordan Shepherd, Shane Daly and juniors Talo Silver and Chris Krajcir.
Watch the line play early.  You'll see Colt Beau Blatchley (6-4, 265) and Pirate McKenzie Freeman (6-3, 285) banging around.  I think the Pirate line has been tough the last few weeks and might give the Colt line a go.
O: Enough Said
D: I keep waiting for a passing team to drop the Colts, but I haven't seen it yet.  Last week, Churchill kept trying to hit Determan with deep sideline passes.  Right idea, just didn't connect enough.  That's the Colt team speed at work.  In my list of longest TD plays, MWL teams have laid just one long one on the Colts.
 

THREE WAY TIE FOR SECOND

2 tie. Marshfield 3-2.
Misc:
  Playing the best ball in the league right now besides Thurston.  Won the last three games by an average score of 44-13.  The only way to guarantee themselves a playoff spot is to beat the Colts at Thurston this Friday.  Otherwise, they have to listen to the other scores and hope Churchill or Springfield loses.  If Marshfield loses and Churchill and Springfield win, then the league tie breaker rules come into play for the last two playoff spots.  According to The World newspaper, in a three way tie, the tied teams will draw cards for the second and third seed.....  Good odds that all of Marshfield's non league opponents will make the playoffs.
O: Expect to see explosive Kyle Brown get 15-20 carries.  And expect QB Kyle Tedder to take what's there.  In the Pirate game against Willamette he ran the ball 18 times, but he only had three carries against the Millers last week.  On the other hand he was 10-17 passing against the Millers.  I think he'll need to throw it at least 15 times against the Colts, and be ready to run another 15 times. 
D. Friday will be my first time seeing the Pirates, so other than Pirate fans saying they have really gelled, I can't give any specifics.  If Pearson is healthy, we will find out if they have gelled like Elmer's glue or Super Glue Epoxy.
 

2 tie. Churchill. 3-2
Misc. 
Churchill must be wondering how North Eugene scored 27 points against Willamette.  North had scored just 14 points in each of their first three league games.
O: Friday will be the last time to see several great Lancer football players in a league match.  Among them the exciting Eric Knapp, Blake Determan and tough running Chas Rogers.

2 tie. Springfield 3-2
Misc:  Trying to work without the speed of Dusty Jarvis proved tough in Coos Bay.  Springfield has their work cut out for them at home against Willamette this week.
O: QB Chris Ling has had nice completion stats the last two weeks.  The Millers need to get in the end zone with the pass.  RB Mike Travess has gained over 100 yards per game the last two weeks, but the Millers miss Jarvis.
D:  Interesting matchup with Willamette.  I think both teams have about the same amount of speed.  I think the Miller's have played with more intensity at times, but I've also seen them not focused.

5. Willamette
O: Loper took over the league rushing lead with his 131 yard performance last week.  The Wolverines worked Rafael Hildago back into the running game.  It was great to see senior Spencer Phillips back at QB, tossing 4 TD's.

6. North Eugene
O: North Eugene's O has come to life after several games without RB Michael Bibbee.  Is it enough to stop the Lancers?

END OF Oct 24 GAME COMMENTS
Don't agree or have some  special insight?  Email me at [email protected].

 

LEAGUE FINISH PREDICTIONS & COMMENTS AFTER WEEK 7 (After Oct 17 games)

1. Thurston 7-0
Misc:
Two tough games left.  At Churchill and Marshfield at home.  Believe it or not, if Thurston suffers two unlikely losses they could find themselves in a three way tie for second at 3-2.  Wonder what's on the MWL books for that kind of tie breaker.  A Thurston loss to Churchill, even with a Thurston win over Marshfield the final week of league play, would likely give the Lancers the first seed in league.  The Colts can't afford to be complacent.

I believe you have to be able to pass a lot to beat the Colts.  Churchill might have a chance.  I liked what Springfield tried against the Colts.  Set up the shotgun so deep the Colt D can't get the QB.  Of course, you have to have some great, quick receivers to make it work, and a QB with a strong arm.

Take a look at how spread out the stats are for the Colts......  note the average yards per run and reception.

      Att Yds Ave Yds/g TD Games Games  
            w/c   Left w Carry  
Rush Devin Anderson Sr T 47 378 8.0 126.0 3 2 3  
Rush Tym Pearson Sr T 24 323 13.5 107.7 5 2 3  
Rush Travis Harris Sr T 3 20 6.7 10.0 0 2 2  
Rush Trevor Ryan Sr T 2 17 8.5 8.5 0 2 2  
Rush Chance Hendrickson Jr T 2 12 6.0 6.0 0 2 2  
Rush Nolan   T 2 8 4.0 8.0 0 2 1  
Rush Kyle Wright Jr T 1 4 4.0 4.0 0 2 1  
Rush Matt Collier Sr T 1 -4 -4.0 4.0 0 2 1  
      82 766 9.3   7      
              Yds/      
              Game/ Yds/    
      Cmp Att % Yd W Pass Cmp TD Int
PASS Tym Pearson Sr T 50 79 63.3 783 261.0 15.7 11 2
PASS Chance Hendrickson Jr T 5 8 62.5 102 34.0 20.4 2 1
      55 87 63.2 885 177.0 16.1 13 3
                     
      R Yds TD Yd/G Yd/R    
                     
Receiving Josh Galbreath Sr T 10 212 4 71 21.2      
Receiving Danny Urness Sr T 6 135 2 45 22.5      
Receiving Kyle Wright Jr T 8 114 1 38 14.3      
Receiving Trevor Ryan Sr T 5 73 0 24 14.6      
Receiving Kyle Hoover Sr T 5 63 2 32 12.6      
Receiving Andrew Woody Jr T 3 60 1 20 20.0      
Receiving Devin Anderson Sr T 7 54 0 18 7.7      
Receiving Justin Dollarhide Sr T 1 51 1 51 51.0      
Receiving Brooks Chapman Sr T 2 36 0 18 18.0      
Receiving Korey Chesire Sr T 4 36 1 18 9.0      
Receiving Jordan Loos Jr T 3 33 1 17 11.0      
Receiving TJ Torgrimson Sr T 1 18 0 18 18.0      
      55 885 13 177 16.1      
              League      
      TD PAT 2PAT FG Total      
                     
SCORING Tym Pearson Sr T 5 0 0 0 30      
SCORING Josh Galbreath Sr T 4 0 0 0 24      
SCORING Gastavo Machuca Jr T 0 20 0 0 20      
SCORING Devin Anderson Sr T 3 0 0 0 18      
SCORING Kyle Hoover Sr T 3 0 0 0 18      
SCORING Danny Urness Sr T 2 0 0 0 12      
SCORING Andrew Woody Jr T 1 0 0 0 6      
SCORING Jordan Loos Jr T 1 0 0 0 6      
SCORING Justin Dollarhide Sr T 1 0 0 0 6      
SCORING Korey Chesire Sr T 1 0 0 0 6      
SCORING Kyle Wright Jr T 1 0 0 0 6      
SCORING Matt Collier Sr T 1 0 0 0 6      
SCORING Trevor Ryan Sr T 1 0 0 0 6      

2. Springfield 5-3.
Misc:  Last week I mentioned I thought the Millers have the most upside of any team in the league.  Part of the upside I was thinking about was Dusty Jarvis, but he went down with an ankle injury for the Churchill game during the first series.  (Oct 22 update -The Register Guard reported on Wednesday the 22nd that Jarvis is out for the year) Mike Travess took over the running chores and ran for 132 yards, mostly in the second half when the Miller line took over the game..... 20 or so Miller seniors have sore memories about last year's 0-34 loss in Coos Bay.  They head to the coast again this year in a similar situation - playoff spot on the line.  Last year the Millers were 2-0 before the Coos Bay loss, the start of a three game losing streak..... It will be interesting to see if Coach Raish adjusts his offense if he has to go against the Pirates without Jarvis.  And it will be interesting to see how Marshfield Coach Wigle attacks Springfield's stingy defense....  Can Coach Raish get the Millers to play all out- all the time again?  The Millers certainly played hard the entire game against Churchill.
O: If the Miller line plays like it did the second half against Churchill, then Travess (and Jarvis if  he is back) should have another great game.  I think it will be key for QB Chris Ling to get his rhythm early against the Pirates.  He looked like he got more and more confidence as the Churchill game progressed. At the beginning, he was tentative on his sideline passes, giving the DB's time to close.  Later he just zinged the ball with authority.
D. Fantastic defensive scheme against the Lancers.  The line was in the backfield all night, the DB's weren't biting on play action, or pump fakes.  They held Lancer QB Knapp to 6 for 15 passing and just 25 yards rushing.  High energy level by the Millers, great mental discipline staying home at all positions.  Can they handle Pirate QB and running backs?
Misc Part 2 The crowd was way down  in numbers after the great homecoming match with Thurston.  But Wow! What a marching band.  Sorry, but I'm a fan of The Music Man, 76 Trombones, River City....  3 xylophones, a gong, guitar, even a tambourine for the Monkies "I'm a Believer".    Is Springfield's fight song "On Wisconsin?"  If so, the Miller band could rent themselves out to Wisconsin the next time the Wisconsin marching band gets booted from a halftime show.  I'll be your agent.

3. Churchill. 6-2
Misc. 
The Lancers still have a shot at the league title.  If they beat Thurston and North, the Colts would be 4-1 with a tie breaker over the Colts or Pirates.  (There are possibilities for a three way 4-1 tie for first, Springfield being in the mix with Churchill and Thurston.)
O: The Lancers ran into a defense quick enough in the secondary and strong and fast enough on the line to neutralize Knapp and Rogers.  The Lancers face an even quicker Colt team this weekend.  I'll be interested to see what adjustments Coach Mehl makes this week.
D:  All three Springfield touchdown drives started on the Churchill side of the field.  If not for the poor field position, Churchill might have been in a 7-7 game.  The Lancer D is good. The Lancers held Springfield to 70 yards passing, albeit the Millers were 10 for 16 and those ten completions were critical.  I think the Lancer D is almost as good as the Millers.  They might be able to pressure the Colts into some early miscues. 

4. Marshfield 5-3
Misc:  That incredibly tough pre league schedule just might be paying off for Marshfield.  If they beat Springfield at home, they should earn a playoff spot as they would own the tie breaker over Springfield.  (Of course, there is always the possibility of a three way tie for second at 3-2.)  The last time the Millers beat the Pirates was 21 years ago in 1987.  The win prior to the 1987 win was in 1967 (yes, 20 more years), when the Millers and Pirates tied for the league title, the tie breaker giving the Millers the sole playoff spot for the MWL.
O: QB Tedder is averaging 126 yards per game on the ground and 85 yards through the air.  Pirate RB Kyle Brown is averaging 5.6 yards per carry and is a huge threat on kick returns.  I wish I could be in Coos Bay for the Springfield game.  This game is key for the Pirates if they are to make the playoffs.  The Millers could possibly make the playoffs with a loss, but they could own second place if they win out.  This is going to be a hard hitting game.
D:  I haven't seen Marshfield play, so I don't know how quick they are versus Thurston (super quick) and Churchill and Springfield (both very quick).  Certainly, it helps the Pirates if speedster Dusty Jarvis is out, but the Millers have other players who are almost as quick.  If the Pirate line is strong and quick enough to neutralize Springfield's O line, the Pirates should do well.  I'm expecting some good coaching strategies from the two coaching professors (Wigle and Raish) and a great defensive battle.  I think this is the game of the week in the MWL, but I'll be at the Thurston - Churchill game, maybe the upset of the year - maybe.

5. Willamette 5-3
O: Interesting stats from the Marshfield game, Loper gained almost 10 yards per carry on 22 carries.  Normally, those kind of numbers would lead to ball control and a win.  But throw in three interceptions and some fumbles and the Wolverines stopped themselves.
D: The Wolverines have faced the three best offenses they will see this year.  Next up, North Eugene. Then Springfield.
MIsc:  Loper had been stopped by Thurston and Churchill, but moved into second place in league games with his 205 yard game against the Pirates.

6. North Eugene 1-7
O: North Eugene scored more points against Thurston than any other team this year except 6A South Eugene!  More than Willamette, more than Springfield, more than 6A North Salem.
D: The Highlanders D (and O) has to be down with the absence of Michael Bibbee.  But with some good strategy and all out effort the next two weeks, the Highlander D can create some momentum for next year. 

END OF Oct 17 GAME COMMENTS
Don't agree or have some  special insight?  Email me at [email protected].

PREDICTIONS & COMMENTS AFTER WEEK 6 (After Oct 10 games)
Game vs Springfield.
  What an exciting game to watch through two and a half quarters.....  Thurston was ahead just 7-0 with three and a half minutes left in the second quarter when Springfield connected on what looked like a tying touchdown pass.  The officials ruled that the receiver was out of bounds in the endzone, surprising both Miller and Colt fans.  On the very next play, a fourth down from the Thurston 26, the Millers threw to almost the same spot near the end zone.  The ball was caught in bounds for sure, but at the three yard line - one yard short of a first down.  Thurston takes over and Pearson runs 97 yards on the very next play for a 14-0 lead.  But the Millers didn't give up, they just kept coming.  There were still three minutes left and the Millers drove it down to the Colt 17 via the airways, but then had three straight incompletions.
Going into halftime, people in the stands were thinking the Colts had met their match, and thinking the game very well could have been 7-7 at half.  Springfield received the kickoff to start the second half, but had a key dropped pass on the drive and eventually punted to the Colts 33.  The Colts took advantage of a pass interference call to move the ball to the Miller  40 yard line where Pearson hit Galbreath for a TD. 
Still, it was 20-0 Colts and the Millers were moving the ball on the Colts through the air with plenty of time left.  On the next series the Millers passed their way to the Colt 19.  But the Millers fumbled out of the shotgun and the Colts picked up the ball at their own 31.  That seemed to take the gas out of Springfield's chainsaws.  The Colts dominated from that point on.
It was great to watch both teams play with such intensity.  Ball carriers were constantly being lifted and driven into the turf like a WWF wrestling match. It was a much different game than the final score indicated.
O: The Millers kept Colt RB Devin Anderson in check, and the Colts dropped half a dozen easy catches in the first half, including a game opening 50 yard in stride bomb from Pearson to open the game. Pearson's 97 yard run late in the second quarter gave the Colts some much needed breathing room. The Colts receivers must have changed the brand of gloves at halftime as they started reeling in passes.  The Colts are averaging 586 yards on offense in two league games, 385 yards more than their opponents. 
D. Springfield seemed to find a vulnerability in the Colts D late in the first half.  QB's Chris Ling and Jacob Taylor set up in a deep shotgun, so deep that the Colts rush couldn't get much pressure on the QB's.  Then Zady Navarro and the rest of the Miller receivers just ran right past the pressing Colt DB's.  Navarro was like the energizer bunny.  Running deep patterns over and over, playing great DB ball, and then running more deep patterns.
Misc: I can only think of two things that will stop the Colts' O, dropped passes and penalties.  The Colts couldn't get going early against the Millers, mostly due to an abundance of drops in the first quarter and a half.  But drops don't usually last an entire game, and they didn't in this one.  The receivers did a great job of forgetting their boo-boos and finished the game strong.  The Colts had another 10+ penalty game.  That may come into play against the Lancers in a couple of weeks.

2. Churchill. 6-1
Misc. 
The Lancers can likely lock up at least the second place seed with a win at Springfield next week.  That would give them wins over Willamette, Marshfield and the Millers with a shot at taking the overall title by beating the Colts on October 24 at Churchill. 
O: RB bruiser Chas Rogers and QB Eric Knapp are a tough running combo to defeat.  Knapp also has put up a respectable 125 yards passing average in two league games.  Blake Determan is his favorite target and has 131 yards in two league games.
D:  The Lancer's haven't seen a starting quarterback yet during league.  They have taken advantage of that.  They had four takeaways against Willamette.    Churchill's last two scores against Willamette came after turnovers in Willamette territory after Willamette had taken a 22-19 lead.  The Lancer D deserves a lot of credit for the win, giving the Lancer's a short field when the O needed it.

3. Springfield 4-3.
Misc:  Springfield has the most upside of anyone in the MWL.  They have the talent and experience to return to the  top ten, but have yet to build the consistency needed to be placed among the best.  Two good QB's, a speedster in RB Dusty Jarvis, two great receivers in Travess and Navarro.  And linemen who can play with anyone.  But can coach Raish get these guys to go all out for 48 minutes?  That's a lot to ask of so many kids who are going two ways.  But I think these guys have more potential than Churchill.  They'll get a chance to prove they can put it all together Friday night when they host Churchill.  For now, I'll go with the Lancers, who are on a six game win streak.
O: I've talked about the talent.  The QB's spread it around among Navarro, Travess, Ennis and Jarvis.  Any of those four can take it and break it. If this team had a second ball carrier to take pressure of of Jarvis, they would be really tough to stop.
D. After a 0-41 loss, some fans will be wondering if Springfield has a D.  They do.  I don't know if the Miller D is the best match up for Churchill.  But I do think if Springfield can put out the same effort they did against the Colts, but sustain it for 48 minutes, the Millers will put themselves in a position to beat the Lancers.
Misc Part 2 Great homecoming atmosphere!  A little risky having homecoming with an arch rival, but the Colt students were great.  My first game at Silke this year.  The giant Miller balloon and balloon arch were fantastic.  A 60 piece marching band with guitar and gong, the biggest band I've seen so far in the MWL.  The Miller band has a 1930's 'Music Man' look, but they boogie like it's the 1980's.  Could put the overflow bleachers where the fans could see the game.... but at least the Millers planned for the large crowd.  The Millers didn't move up the ladder on the bar-b-que rating.  Still a two way tie between the Wolverines and Pirates.  No one else is close so far this year.  Haven't seen/tasted the Lancer fixin's.  That'll be October 24th when the Colts visit. 

4. Willamette 5-2
Misc: The 0-2 Wolverines have to consider this weeks trip to Marshfield a must win game.  The Colts and Lancers strategy was to stop Loper and force Willamette to pass.  It worked for both teams, and the Wolverines can expect more of the same.  It helped the Lancers that the Wolverines were playing without their regular starter at QB.
O: Loper has been held to 4.1 Yards Per Carry in his first two league games.  He'll have to hope the Wolverines aren't playing from behind and having to put the ball in the air all of the time, if he is to have some big games against Marshfield and Springfield. QB Spencer Phillips did not play against Churchill due to a concussion suffered in the Thurston game.  Back up Jacob Hughes looks good throwing the ball most of the time.  He's tried some very tough passes rolling left which haven't had the best results.  It takes a really strong right arm to be successful rolling left. 
D: The Wolverines gave up 332 yards to Churchill and now travel to Marshfield who has averaged 321 yards in games against Churchill (when the Pirates were without their starting QB) and North. They can reduce their opponents yardage by reducing their own turnovers and keeping the ball longer.

5. Marshfield 4-3
Misc:  Pirates control their own playoff destiny over the next two weeks by hosting Willamette and Springfield.  If they win both games, they would own tie breakers over Willamette and Springfield in the event of a tie between these teams.
O: QB Kyle Tedder returned for the match against North Eugene, passing for 106 yards and rushing for 82.  The Pirates established a running game against North and posted 318 yards on the ground.  (North was without Michael Bibbee, who is not only a stud RB, but reeks havoc on O's).  We already knew about Pirate Kyle Brown who ran for 103 yards, but the Pirates introduced Ryan Scoville, a sophomore, who ran for 105 yards, including a 44 yard TD run.
D:  North put up a respectable 147 yards rushing on Marshfield.  This might have Willamette thinking happy thoughts, but I'm betting Marshfield stacks the house against Loper and dares the Wolverines to pass.  The outcome of the Marshfield-Willamette game will depend on the emergence of solid quarterback play by the quarterbacks on both sides of the ball.  If Tedder or Willamette's Qb (Hughes or Phillips) steps up, their respective teams will win.  If neither QB steps up, I hope you are a defensive player's parent.

6. North Eugene 1-6
O: Great recovery by the Highlanders after losing star running back Michael Bibbee.  They spread the load among Alex Wilson, Tim Keller, David Harpel and others. Keller was an efficient 10-18 passing.
D: The Highlanders are probably a little disappointed in their D game against Marshfield after a good league start against Springfield.  Devin Anderson and Tym Pearson of the Colts are up next for North.

END OF Oct 10 GAME COMMENTS
Don't agree or have some  special insight?  Email me at [email protected].



PREDICTIONS & COMMENTS AFTER WEEK 5 (After Oct 3 games)

1. Thurston. 5-0
Misc. 
The Colts overwhelmed Willamette last Friday.  Willamette was a top 10 ranked team and has beaten two 6A teams.  The Colts are stronger, faster and quicker than everyone else in the league.  There can  be no question about that.  The staff and players earn extra kudos for playing with extreme intensity from beginning to end.......  I sat by a West Albany fan during the Willamette-Thurston game.  Before the game, he was convinced no one could touch West Albany.  Then as the first quarter unfolded with Thurston setting a furious pace, he changed to, "Can they keep this up?"   The answer Friday was 'yes'.  If the Colts can keep playing with such intensity through the rest of the season they should have a solid chance against the Bulldogs should they see them in the playoffs.  Springfield and Churchill will have to hope the Colts can't keep up the intensity game in and game out....11 penalties for 106 yards - may become an issue during the playoffs
O:  625 Total Yards against Willamette.  Pearson had another great game passing and running, but it was the continued emergence of Devin Anderson's running behind a fantastic O line that took the Willamette D out of the game.
D. The Colts held Willamette to 53 yards rushing.  Loper was usually met in the backfield by a D line that constantly got deep penetration and by backers who came up and plugged any gaps.  Because the Colts scored on the games opening drive and then added two more TD's after Willamette went 3 and out twice, the Wolverines had to try the air lanes more than they were used to.  Again, the Colt D line was living in Willamette's backfield, making for a nightmare evening for Willamette's QB's Phillips and Hughes.
More Misc:  Smallish but very good sounding marching  band (and flag team) - great xylophone!  Outstanding dance team as always - the 32 Colt high kick chorus line seals the deal every time.  Thurston falls in the best bbq stand contest.  I had a cold Polish.  And besides, there was more bbq ambiance when they set up at Silke.  Willamette and Marshfield are clearly the leaders, with my first visit to Silke coming up Friday.

2. Churchill. 5-1
Misc: 
Last week I said I would let the Lancers fly under the radar one more week.  No more.  I'm making the Lancer's a giant killer, as they ride their steeds to Willamette and Springfield the next two weeks.  I'm picking the Lancer's over the Wolverines even though I haven't seen the Lancers play.  I'll be there Thursday.
O: It was great to see QB Eric Knapp back in the line-up last Friday.  He's a major dual threat like Thurston's Pearson.  Knapp has great rushing and passing stats with one exception, TD to INT ratio.  Improve that and the Lancer's have a chance against the Colts in three weeks. Like Thurston's QB, you can't just focus on Knapp.  If you do, RB Chas Rogers will have to be  reckoned with.  Throw in WR Blake Determan averaging over 8 yards per carry in case you aren't worried enough.  Determan will definitely entertain you as a receiver too.  Just like with the running game, you can't focus too much on one receiver, as Sam Graham will slip free and beat you.
D:  I haven't seen Churchill play, but they haven't given up more than 21 points in their five games against 5A opponents.

3. Springfield 4-2
Misc:
 The Millers were blessed with a schedule that reads 'If you are going to win the league title - here is the schedule you will need."  The Millers host all three of the playoff contenders, starting with Thurston this Friday.  Then they invite Churchill to Silke, then go on the road to Marshfield, and finish the regular season by hosting Willamette.
O:  RB Dusty Jarvis gives the Miller's their firepower, and Jarvis did not play last week.  After a high scoring first four games, the Millers' were held to 17 by Ashland and 7 by Sherwood.  Those are two pretty good teams.  Add Jarvis back into the mix, and the Miller's should be back on O
D:  Springfield held Ashland to their lowest point total of the season two weeks ago.  Last Friday, the Millers became only the second team in state to hold Sherwood under two touchdowns.  The other team to hold down the Bowmen was number one ranked West Albany.

4. Willamette 5-1
Misc.
  You never know how a high school team will respond after a game like Willamette had against Thurston.
O. Expect to see the Loper, Hildago, Ruiz running game back on it's feet when the Wolverines host Churchill.  I'm sure that Churchill saw how Thurston shut down the Willamette running game, but part of the Colts shutting down Willamette was the fact that Thurston scored 21 points in the first six and a half minutes, and forced Willamette to the air more than the Wolverines wanted.
D:  Which Willamette D will show up against Churchill?  The one that looked so good against the 6A teams, or the one that showed up against Ashland and Thurston?  I'm betting the one against the 6A teams.  The D line didn't seem to have the same energy against Thurston as it did against the 6A teams.  Maybe the confines at home will turn the energy back on.

5. Marshfield
Misc: 
Marshfield has a 14 game win streak going against North Eugene going into this Friday's game at North.  I'm picking Marshfield over North and not just because I'm a Pirate.
O: 
Don't expect the Pirates, who were averaging 29 Points Per Game against 5A and 4A teams prior to the Churchill loss, to stay down for long.  They were without their starting QB for the game and their back up QB left the game with an injury in the second half.
D: The Pirates played one of their better D games of the year, even after a disastrous first quarter.

6. North Eugene
O:  Shea Slayton caught 3 TD's against Parkrose, obviously QB Tim Keller had another good game.  Sophomore RB Alex Wilson had a good game and adds options to the NE running game.
D:  Picks for Slayton and Jackson Landgreen.  Highlander recap
Misc:  Kailee Wong was a man-child the last time the Highlanders beat Marshfield in 1993.  I can still picture him running over and through entire defensive lines his senior year when Eugene schools played in Autzen. 

Don't agree or have some special insight or have some corrections?  Email me at [email protected].

 

#2 ranked Thurston 55     #5 ranked Willamette 0

Decent field conditions the first half.  Thurston received the kickoff, and it was Devin Anderson time.  A quick strike four play drive, I think the last three by Anderson, including a 4 yard TD run for Anderson.  Actually, it was O line time.  Thurston's line was blowing Willamette off of the ball, and would all night.  I was sitting by a gentleman from West Albany who is my age, and he said we could run  together through those holes.  Those lineman were center Josh Alexander, guards Kraig Akins, Andrew Fish, and tackles Chase Antonovich and Beau Blatchley. 
Willamette had to have a successful run game and run clock to have a chance.  Those little 5 yard flags and bad snaps I have been talking about for the Wolverines put them in poor first and second down situations on their first two possessions.  They were three and out both times.  That put the Wolverines into a passing situation, which is not the Wolverines strength. 
The Colts followed Willamette's first 3 and out  with another run oriented drive, capped by another Anderson 4 yard run to put the Colts up 14-0.  The Colts followed the second Willamette 3 and out with a Pearson to Galbreath 9 yard TD.
Down 21-0 and with the Colts obviously having Loper corralled, the Wolverines tried to go to the air, but that is tough to do, when your QB is under max pressure. 
Misc... Pearson scored on a 54 yard by running up the gut and splitting two DB's.....Willamette had a nice 71 pass play from Phillips to Gebhardt to the 3 near the end of the half, but the Colts stopped them four times, pushing them back to the six, then the Colts galloped back and scored.... Willamette QB Phillips left the game the second to last play in the first half with a concussion after a late hit (The Colts were up 41-0 at the time).  Phillips sat out the second half.  Here's hoping Phillips, a senior, gets fit for the rest of the season.  Junior backup QB Jacob Hughes was greeted with a downpour for most of the third quarter, but he definitely throws a good ball.   Willamette's David Busenbark (TE/LB) left the game with what looked like a leg injury and did not return. ( Colt Coach Starck has to be complemented for a great game plan on both sides of the ball.  He took advantage of Willamette's concern of the short passing game by featuring the running game.  On D, he used Thurston's superior quickness to stop the run, then put max pressure on the passing game.)

POST WEEK 4 comments posted Sunday, Sept 28.

Things to consider for the league openers next week.  Marshfield will be without their QB and  a key linemen for one game.  Plus they suffered some injuries to others.  Churchill should take advantage of Pirate fortunes at Halverson field.  Springfield's Dusty Jarvis reportedly has a wounded wing, but at least the Millers don't have a league game.  It looked like Willamette didn't suffer any injuries against South.  Thurston had a bye, so no injuries during a game for the Colts.  40% chance of rain in the forecast....
Don't agree or have some  special insight?  Email me at [email protected].  

No change in my rankings.  I've seen all but Marshfield and Churchill (Willamette twice).

1. Thurston. 4-0
Misc. 
Had a bye last week.  Usually a bye means time to prep, heal and outwit an opponent who doesn't have a bye (Willamette played South Eugene).  But USC had a bye, and got chewed to death by the Beavs.....The Colts have a QB with 364 yards passing per game, 4 receivers with at least 11 catches.  A defense that has everyone flying to the ball.  The Colts are for real and have earned their high ranking in state.

2. Willamette 5-0
O. 
The Wolverine O line was dominant on their first drive in each half against South Eugene.  Center Dillon Machado, guards Nick White, Carson Mason and tackles Danny Granillo and Adam Robertson opened huge holes for Loper and Hildago.  If they can sustain that for four full quarters they will control the ball against the Colts and possibly win that game.  The Wolverines made a huge gain in execution from the North Medford game.  The only problem in the South game was a few high center snaps.  Eliminate those and Willamette moves into the top five in state.  The Wolverines interior D line can go quick with 5' 6" Taylor Smith and 5' 7" Tomas Baustista and drive O lines crazy, or they can beef up with Adam Robertson, Nick White or Dillon Macado.  Either way, they snuffed two 6A offenses in North Medford and South Eugene.
Misc.  The last time a MWL team opened their league season on a new home field was in 2000.  Willamette traveled to Sheldon and won.  This year they will try to repeat history when they travel to Thurston's new field..... Willamette got to face a decent no huddle spread offense in South Eugene.  That'll take some of the worry away about whether or not they can set up their D fast enough for the type of no huddle O they will see from the Colts.....Willamette has a tight marching band and pretty cool flag team dressed in Blues Brothers outfits....Had a Big Dog at the Willamette Bar-B-Q.  It's beyond  huge and with the famous Wolverine onions and mushrooms, the best Friday night meal in the Eugene-Springfield area.

THE GAME OF THE WEEK: Willamette at Thurston

Only a fool would predict this one.  So, I'll step forward. 

Two weeks ago there was no doubt in my mind that these were the two best teams in the league, and Thurston was two touchdowns better.  I'm not thinking that way anymore.  Willamette improved that much in two weeks, and Loper played the entire game the last two weeks. (He only played the second half against North Medford).  The biggest improvement for the Wolverines was in execution.  Willamette was hitting hard in the North Medford game, but flags and bad snaps continuously hurt them. Willamette has improved a lot,  just a few too many bad snaps against South....
O:  Thurston's passing O is well documented with Pearson having a great year so far and a happy stable of receivers who all can expect to see the ball come their way.  Pearson and Anderson's running game are more than enough to keep opponents off balance.  Willamette's O is built around Loper and Hildago, although I have to believe coach Fritz hasn't shown his passing O yet, as QB Phillips can throw the ball.  I'll give the edge to the Colts because they have more weapons; not better weapons, just more weapons.
D:  Maybe I bring Willamette's D good fortunes.  They held two 6A teams to 7 points apiece when I saw them, but gave up 24 points a game to 4A and 5A teams when I wasn't there.....North Medford was a running team and only had one legit drive against the Wolverines. Two weeks later,  Willamette shut down any South attempt at passing and made them a running team, and Willamette shut that down.....  I can't help but note that South Eugene scored 35 against Thurston the week before South scored only 7 against Willamette.  I'm giving Willamette a slight edge on D.  But looking at matchups, Thurston should be able to hold Willamette's running game a little bit in check, but Willamette's D will have trouble with the Colts passing game.  I'll be interested to see if Willamette goes with a quick interior D line to start or the beefeaters.
Misc: There are a ton of great athletes on these teams on both sides of the ball.  You'll be seeing some of the best 5A football players in the state at this game.  Both teams are well conditioned.  They seem to be executing well, which they should be five weeks into the season..... Will the Colts be soft after not playing for a week?  Willamette not only played, they played hard and sent a message to South that their 6A victory over 6A North Medford was no fluke......
Prediction: Thurston 21 Willamette 20.  If both teams are ready to play, this is going to be a great game.  Might come down to the kicking game, including extra points.....Willamette can win it if they control the clock and keep the score down.  They had two time consuming scoring drives against South Eugene to start each half, but didn't keep up the momentum in either half.....Home field advantage to the Colts, Colt student section has been livelier than the Wolverine section.....Bar-B-Q advantage goes to Willamette, but that won't matter to the players....... Bottom line is I think the Colts have just enough explosive elements to outscore the Wolverines

3. Springfield
O:  Ashland held the formerly high scoring Millers (36 PPGame)  to 17 points.  Marshfield and Willamette not only beat Ashland, but scored more points than Springfield did against the Grizzlies.  Time for the Millers to worry?  Not unless Jarvis can't get back to full speed. 
D:  On the other hand, Springfield held Ashland to their lowest point total of the season.
Misc: Millers travel to Sherwood this week.  Sherwood is one of the upper tier teams in state. The following week, Thurston visits Springfield. These two games will determine if Springfield is in the upper third of 5A teams (top 15) or just a middle of the pack MWL team.

4. Churchill
I should move the Lancer's up to third in league.  I love the way they are playing, but they haven't  played a solid team (other than way beyond solid Sheldon) yet.
O: Averaging 38 points a game against 5A teams in four games.  If you liked Knapp's 56% completion rate, you have to be even more impressed by Cody Kloehn's 12-21, 57% rate. Kloehn and Casey McFadden went 12-20 against Eagle Point.  Rogers rushed for another 162 yards.  Sam Graham returned a KO 80 yards for a TD.
D:  Lots of Lancers getting to the ball.  Chas Rogers not only runs the ball well, but is one of the better D forces in the league.  Austin Jackson, Josh Moreland, Logan Marks and Kyle Rehberger had very good outings at Eagle Point.
Misc: Churchill hosts the Pirates Friday night.  The Pirates will be without the services of several players, so the Lancer's should walk the Pirates off the plank.  Then the Lancers travel to Willamette and Springfield.  Win either of those away games and the Lancers should go to state.  With their explosive offense, they have a solid chance against Willamette and a very good opportunity at Springfield.

5. Marshfield
O: 
Averaging 29 PPGame against 5A and 4A teams.  Unfortunately, they will be without several starters for the Churchill game including their QB and an O lineman. 
D: Giving up 27 PPGame.  Pirates don't want to get into shootouts, especially without their O intact.  Churchill isn't exactly the team they want to see right now, not with Determan receiving and Rogers rushing.

6. North Eugene
O:  Bibbee and Keller continue to look good and  Keller continues to grow.  Parkrose up next for the Highlanders.
D:  DT Gabe Wilson had a good game against the Senators.
Misc:  Madison was ranked in the top 10 of some preseason polls.  While certainly not a top 10 team after five weeks, they are a solid team and should make the state playoffs.

END OF WEEK 4 COMMENTS (Posted Sept 28)
Don't agree or have some  special insight?  Email me at [email protected].

POST WEEK 3 - after Sept 19 games

No change in my rankings.  I've seen all but Marshfield and Churchill.

1. Thurston.
O:
Pearson's checking in with 364 passing yards per game. His TD to INT ration is 14:1.  Galbreath, Urness, Woody and Anderson all have 11 or more catches.  Anderson is rushing the ball at an 76 YPG clip.  Nothing more needs to be said except the linemen are helping make this happen.
D: The Colts' have to be a little concerned that South Eugene, a 6A team, laid 35 points on them.  That's the most South has scored this year. But a couple of first half scores came after Thurston fumbles. The Colts are averaging a little over 2 sacks per game, have picked off three passes and recovered 6 fumbles.  Colt DB's aren't getting much action as the linemen and LB's are grabbing all of the action early.  Wright,  Hesse, Ferrell, Joral, Akins and Antonovich have been accumulating the tackles, and they better be ready in two weeks for Wolverine's Loper and Hildago.  They haven't seen anything like those two, yet.
Misc.  A bye this week, and I'd expect to see a lot of Colt jerseys and caps at Willamette Friday night.  Thurston fell behind South 35-28 early in the fourth.  Certainly a gut check.  They passed the gut check with flying colors.  That should help during league.

2. Willamette
O:
Loper only played the second half two weeks ago and didn't seem to get fully going.  Well, he went the full game this week for 222 yards and three TD's against Ashland. Hildago scored a pair, too.   Try and stop those two.
D:  The Willamette D hasn't been smothering the 4A and 5A teams, but I saw them hold North Medford to 7 points, so I know they can do the job when they have to.
Misc:  It appears that the Wolverines have built this year's O around Loper and Hildago.  And why not.  They might need some passing against Thurston if they can't hold down the Colts O.

Willamette at Thurston in two weeks.  Revenge has to be on the Colts mind.  Willamette gave the Colts their only league loss last year which cost the Colts the number one seed.  The Wolverines have to be a little tired of reading how great the Colts are in the polls.  We have the makings of a rivalry like the old Sheldon-Churchill, Sheldon-Willamette games in the early 2000's.  Hard hitting, really quick teams, with different looks on O.  If both coaches have their boys ready, it's a toss up.  I'm going with the Colts - strictly on home field advantage, which includes the best student fan support in the league.  (But second best barbeque to Willamette and their famous onions)

3. Springfield
O:  Sputtered against North Eugene.  201 total yards, Jarvis 79 on 19 carries.  The Millers got 64 yards on a beautiful Taylor to Navarro bomb. Still, the Millers are averaging 36 points per game and have passing and running threats.  File this: Jarvis was third in state in the 100 meter dash last year.
D:  5 take aways versus North with Brent Haxby taking a fumble in for a TD.  That's a trademark of a Skip Raish coached team. 
Misc: I'm sure I didn't see their A game. The Millers looked flat in warmups.  (Well, not the 30 member cheer team, who sprinted a lap before the game.)   Springfield has an impressive 'character building' OT win over Marist and another win over a very solid Silverton team.  Can't wait for the Thurston at Springfield game in three weeks.  Springfield brought a rockin student section to North and have always had one of the best cheer teams in state.  But Thurston's student support takes a back seat to no one, so it's going to a football fever evening.  I won't call that one until Thurston hosts Willamette, and Springfield plays Sherwood.

4. Churchill
I'll let the Lancers fly under the radar for now...
O: Averaging 39 points a game against 5A teams.  You'll see two of the most exciting skills position players in the state when you see the Lancers.  Blake Determan is averaging 90 YPG in receptions AND averaging 10 yards per carry.  QB Eric Knapp is averaging 60 yards per game rushing and is completing 56% of his passes.  Toss in RB Chas Rogers and you understand why the Lancer's are racking up points.  If the Lancers get their TD to INT ratio fixed, the Lancers go to the playoffs.
D:  Lots of players getting to the ball for the Lancers.  Logan Marks, Rogers and Kyle Rehberger lead the pack.  Taylor Derlacki, Brynnan Hyland and Trevor Bineham and a hoard of others are right behind.
Misc: Churchill should roll over Eagle Point before hosting Marshfield.  Marshfield will be either battle hardened after their fourth straight match against good teams (Jefferson this week), or thinking basketball.  I'm betting battle hardened.

5.Marshfield
O: 
Don't make too much out of the Pirate-Grants Pass outcome.  The Pirates were white washed 0-35 by Grants Pass, one of the better 6A teams in the state. Churchill can relate to playing a top 6A team, as the Lancers watched Sheldon roll over them 7-50 early in the season.  On a more equal footing, the Pirates put 25 on Marist in Eugene and laid 33 on Ashland.  Junior QB Kyle Tedder is still learning the ropes, and hopefully the bruised hip suffered against GP won't keep him out of action.  Kyle Brown had a 100 yard game against Ashland and popped a 95 yard kick off return against Marist.
D: Grants Pass was averaging 38 points a game against 6A teams before traveling to Marshfield. 
Misc:  The Pirates could have set a softer schedule in a year where all of the O skilled position players are brand new to varsity experience.  Marist, Ashland, Grants Pass and Jefferson.  Jeff can relate.  Jefferson has the toughest 5A non league schedule in state. 6A Grant, #1 ranked West Albany, top 10 Sherwood and Crater.  The Democratss bring a 1-3 record to Coos Bay.  The Jeff-Marshfield game could be one of the least followed games in the state.  But both teams could find themselves in the playoffs.

6. North Eugene
O:  The O is pretty much all junior Michael Bibbee so far and with good reason.  He opened the season with 100 yards against Crescent Valley and had 120 against Springfield.  North will have to throw the ball more and/or use another back more to take some pressure off of Bibbee.  North's pitcher/qb Tim Keller has a good receiver in Tyler Vanderhoff.  David Hapel is explosive and had a 90 yard kick off return against North Bend.
D:  The North D is better than the scores look.  Springfield barely broke 200 yards, and the Highlanders held a very good offensive Crook County team to 14 points.
Misc: North has two weeks to try and balance their offense.  Then they host the Pirates, who will be coming off of a home game against the Lancers.
North's band has a good bone and phone section.  This ex trombone player loved it.

END OF WEEK 3 COMMENTS (Post Sept 19)

POST WEEK 2.  Post Week 3 write up on Sunday
1.  Thurston 
O: 
The Colts look quick, strong and physically fit.  Pearson had a good TD to INT ratio last season and looks like he will improve on that. The WR's and RB's are getting lots of touches and all are breakaway players when they get the ball.
D:  When I wrote my official pre-season ranking I didn't see LB Collier on the roster, but he definitely is on the field. The Colts should be able to go side to side with anyone and the DB's can smother most receivers at the 5A level.
Misc: South Albany is the only quality opponent they have played, and the Colts put 47 points on them.  What was notable for the season opener against Corvallis was that Thurston's execution was relatively tight for a season opener, and they came out of the blocks on a mission to dominate.  They run a quick/no huddle spread offense that is prone to mistakes by an undisciplined team. But the Colts were focused and penalties and turnovers were few.
Schedule: The Colts have to like their schedule.  They are 3-0 and face South Eugene in a statement game.  Can they play with a decent 6A team?  (Willamette beat North Medford last week)  If they come out of that game feeling good, they have a bye the next week.  That's plenty of time to prepare for their league opener when they host the Wolverines.  The Colts should be healthy and rested for Willamette.  The Colts follow the Willamette game with a six mile trip to the Springfield Millers.  Tough games, but as of now, I have to pick the Colts.  A tough win against Willamette.  A little more margin against the Millers.

Returning All Leaguers!

QB Tym Pearson Sr       LB Kyle Wright T Jr
T Beau Blatchley Sr       LB Matt Collier T Sr

2. Willamette

Willamette's 10-7 win over North Medford was both impressive and worrisome. 
D: The Wolverine D was rock solid all night, giving up only one sustained drive to the Tornado.  Willamette's DB's played tight coverage and the Wolverines did a decent job of not letting North Medford's good RB Colin Sowers break loose for the huge run.   However, North's big QB Mauer did just roll through the Wolverine middle on the line North Medford drive. I think Willamette's D can slow down the Colts enough to keep them in the game when they meet..
O: Execution was not impressive from a flag standpoint and some center snaps, but that can improve.  Receivers were wide open early in the game. And if the Wolverines throw the ball more underneath instead of almost always past the first down marker, they could be dangerous in the air.  Loper didn't play the first half, and I have to believe if he gets started earlier he does more damage.  Rafael Hildago filled Loper's roll more than admirably. Hidalgo would be the main running back for most other teams.
Misc: If the Wolverines improve their  passing and work on execution, they will be a tough, tough team to beat.  They mirror Thurston in a lot of ways.  They don't have quite as many weapons as the Colts, but they are close enough in talent and ferocity to upset the Colts.
The Wolverines have one victory over a 6A team, travel to a decent Ashland team next week, and face South Eugene in two weeks.  I believe Willamette will do well in both of theses games, so you better buy reserved tickets to the Thurston-Willamette game now. 

RB Craig Loper Sr       DL Eric Ruiz W Sr
QB Spencer Phillips Sr       P Jacob Hughes W Jr

3. Springfield

I'm dropping Springfield from first to third prior to their first league game.  I haven't seen them play, so its' difficult to compare them to Thurston and Willamette. Two of the opponents the Millers have beaten, Silverton (2-1) and Marist, are good teams.  I believe the Miller's are neck and neck with Willamette.  I gave Willamette the nod for second this week because of their 10-7 win over North Medford.  Springfield takes on the Highlanders this week.  But we'll have to wait to find out a lot more about the Millers. After North, they host Ashland and then travel to Sherwood, a monster team.
O: Jarvis, Navarro, Travess (WR this year) and QB Jake Taylor are looking great.  With five returning all leaguers on O and Taylor doing well at QB, I could be moving the Millers back up to first after I see them this weekend.
D: Giving up a few points on D, 28 two weeks ago against Silverton and 27 in regulation to Marist.
Misc: Have to love their schedule.  They host Thurston, Churchill and Willamette.

Returning All Leaguers!

G Aaron Boehland Sr       DB Zady Navarro Sp Sr
RB Dusty Jarvis Sr       DL Marshall Curry Sp Sr
Rec Zady Navarro Sr       LB Bill Hamilton Sp Sr
T Marshall Curry Sr       LB Donovan Ramsdal Sp Sr
QB Mike Travess Sr              

4. Churchill.

The Lancers lost to Sheldon 50-7, then beat two 0-3 teams, so it's difficult to get a read on how they are doing as I haven't seen them play. 
O: Determan is playing as expected on both sides of the ball. And Knapp is playing as hoped as QB (rather than receiver). Look up their jersey numbers before the game starts so you can keep an eye on them.
D: No one expected Churchill to stop Sheldon.  Then the Lancers held Summit when they had to.  Summit had a 21-14 lead after three quarters, and the final was Churchill 35-21.
Misc: Schedule could be better in a year the team is on the edge of playoff contention.  Host the Pirates and Colts.  But on the road to Springfield and Willamette.

Returning All Leaguers!

Rec Eric Knapp Sr       DB Eric Knapp C Sr
T Scott Prior Sr       DL Kyle Rehberger C Jr
          LB Chas Rogers C Sr

5. Marshfield. 

The 2-1 Pirates have two more games to get their new QB going.  Junior Kyle Tedder showed strong improvement in the game versus Ashland this week.  If he and the Pirates play well at home against 3-0 Grants Pass and the PIL's Jefferson, the Pirates will be in a position to go after a playoff spot.
O: Tedder is coming along as mentioned.  But to be successful in the MWL, the Pirates will have to put in a legit passing game.  Willamette, Thurston and Springfield are too quick on D to allow a running team to put up a lot of yards.
D: Not a dominant defense, but they held usually potent Marist to 27 points (As did Springfield) and potent-against-4A teams Ashland to 28 ( As did Henley)
Misc: Here's hoping the Pirates can work in a successful passing game against powerhouse Grants Pass and a very tough Jefferson team. Once past those two games, the Pirates have a pretty good schedule.  They start with winnable games at Churchill and North.  (The Pirates have suffered ugly opening losses to Churchill the last two years.  Not ugly scores, just ugly games)
Misc: Marshfield doesn't appear to have the team speed, depth and conditioning this year to keep up with the upper tier MWL teams.  On the other hand, the Pirates bring it at game time each and every game, so they always have a shot.

Returning All Leaguers!

C MacKenzie Freeman Sr     P Kyle Tedder M Jr
          DB Levi Meline M Sr

6. North Eugene

Apparently the Highlanders were jinxed when one of the players sold me a North Eugene value card.  I didn't have any cash on me a week earlier in church when a Churchill player hit me up.  Lucky Churchill.

I'll see the Highlanders for the first time this week when they host Springfield.  If the Highlanders can find some plays that gain yards to take pressure off of Bibbee, they could turn around the 0-3 record.  When I was at the Willamette game, I was thinking Bibbee was the only MWL back who could smash through the Wolverines like Mauer did on North Medford's TD drive and like the NM lineman turned RB did on his rumble for 25 yards before a fumble.  But Bibbee will go nowhere if the Highlanders can't find another weapon.

North has a moderately favorable schedule.  Sometimes teams steal a playoff spot by beating one top tier team and beating all of the other teams on the edge.  They Highlanders will probably seal their fate the first league game when they host Springfield.  Friday night will be a great opportunity to knock off an MWL top tier team.  Then the Highlanders have a non league game before hosting the Pirates.  If they get past the Millers and Pirates at home, they have stiff road trips to Willamette and Thurston, but at 2-2, they would have a great shot at a playoff spot in the last league game at home against Churchill. 

Returning All Leaguers!

RB MIchael Bibbee Jr       DB David Harpel NE Sr
Rec Tyler Vanderhoff Sr        
G Shay Riggs Jr        

Bar-B-Que Patrol.  It's been a few years since I taste tested all of the MWL Bar-B-Que offerings.  But it was good to see Willamette was still at the top of their game.  Ran our of food a little early.  Next Bar-B-Que test - North Eugene.  Do they have curly fries like their baseball team?

THIS ENDS WEEK 2 PREDICTIONS

 

 
 PRE Week 0 Written in August before Aug 29 games

Good news for me.  I'm moving to Eugene again.  While I'll miss my alma matre, MHS, I'll be able to see some more of the other teams.  (Also I won't be on the road watching the Cougars anymore as my stepson Alex Brink has moved on to the Houston Texans, at least for awhile.)

Can't wait to see the Colts open the regular season at their new stadium.  Later they will open their league schedule at home versus Willamette. All MWL teams with a true home field, and more turf.  Things are good in the MWL.  The MWL improved to 2-3 during the playoffs in 2007, a big improvement over 2006's 0-3 run in the playoffs.  Maybe we'll see more improvement this year. 

Is Springfield a football town?  The Colts have been to the playoffs four straight years and the Millers are ready to take the leap to the playoffs with lot's of all leaguers returning and a new (to Springfield) head coach ready to lead the way........

1. Springfield

Coach Raish should win league with 9 positions filled by senior all leaguers. The former Willamette head coach has the stars lined up for a title.  Not only does he have the strong group of returnees, Silke Field will be the site when the Millers host Thurston and Willamette games.  And unlike previous years, when Thurston visits, it will be the Colts first game at Silke as Thurston now has its own field.  Plan on going to see the Millers host Thurston and Willamette, it will be wild.

The only question is what approach will Raish take with this formerly running team.  Raish likes to air the ball.  RB Dusty Jarvis and QB Mike Travess combined for  161 yards rushing last year during league. On the other hand, the Millers only gained 62 yards passing per league game.  Senior Guard Aaron Boehland will be opening the holes as the only first team all league O lineman returning this year in the entire league.

Coach has got to be thinking how to get Zady Navarro more touches, either receiving or running.  Raish has so many formations in his bag of tricks, he'll get him the ball.  If Navarro can be maxed on offense he has an outside chance at Player of the Year, as he is a stud on D.

Where the Millers finish could depend a lot on their D.  I've seen Raish's Wolverines burst helmets for an entire season and then the next season saunter to the ball.  I'd love to hear some Miller helmets poppin' and pads crackin' when Thurston and Willamette visit Silke.   LB's Hamilton and Ramsdal were HM last year.  If they earn first team this year, the Millers should claim the title.

I wasn't going to jinx Raish by ranking the Millers number one.  It's not as easy as it looks putting in new O and D looks. But, given some other news around the league, I've moved the Millers to the top.


Returning All Leaguers!

G Aaron Boehland Sr       DB Zady Navarro Sp Sr
RB Dusty Jarvis Sr       DL Marshall Curry Sp Sr
Rec Zady Navarro Sr       LB Bill Hamilton Sp Sr
T Marshall Curry Sr       LB Donovan Ramsdal Sp Sr
QB Mike Travess Sr              

2.  Thurston  As if having the league's offensive Player of the Year return (Tym Pearson,  7-3 TD to INT ratio and 32 yards on the ground per game) isn't enough, the Colts have a nice schedule.  They travel to South Eugene two weeks before the league opener for some 6A competition.  The South game will take the Colts to a higher level of competition.  Then they have a bye before they host the Wolverines in a key league opener. On the other hand, Willamette won't have the luxury of a bye to study Thurston, as they will face South Eugene the week before they visit the Colts.

The Colts will be without star junior running back, Omar Jackson.  Jackson knew how to get across the goal line and averaged 60 yards per game on the ground in an offense where 50 guys carry the ball.  Losing Jackson is a blow, but the Colt's have plenty of time before league starts to find out who their crew of running backs will be.

Pearson and others will be hiding behind all league lineman Beau Blatchley (6-3, 270). 

The Colt D will be led by junior LB Kyle Wright.  Senior Matt Collier was an HM linebacker last year.  I don't see his name on the current Colt roster yet, but I'm assuming he'll be back, which will give the Colts a great D.

Returning All Leaguers!

QB Tym Pearson Sr       LB Kyle Wright T Jr
T Beau Blatchley Sr       LB Matt Collier T Sr

3. Willamette

Coach Fritz took the league title in only his second year, and he has his starting QB and running back returning.  Phillips averaged over 100 yards per game passing, but he'll need to improve his TD to INT ratio if the Wolverines are to return to state. 
Super RB Craig Loper knows how to score and he'll be hungry for a good senior year. 
Eric Ruiz returns as a second team defensive lineman.

The Wolverines lost three all league linemen, including their center.  Coach Fritz will have the opportunity to prove he has built a program by reloading on the line. 

Another key area will be the defensive secondary.  The Wolverines graduated 2 DB's and 2 LB's who were on first or second team all league last year.  Fortunately, coach will have four non league games to prepare for league.  Only two other MWL teams return their starting QB's, so the Wolverines will be improving their D during non league games, while the other teams develop their QB's.  Time will tell....

Willamette plays two 6A teams in non league match ups.  If they walk off the field with their heads held high after playing North Medford and South Eugene, the MWL better watch out.

Returning All Leaguers!

RB Craig Loper Sr       DL Eric Ruiz W Sr
QB Spencer Phillips Sr       P Jacob Hughes W Jr

4. Churchill.

The Lancers graduated three offensive and four defensive all league position players, but they have two prolific offensive players in receivers Eric Knapp ( 17 catches in league) and Blake Determan (22 yards per catch in league).  Both of these guys can find the end zone and will want to visit it a lot more this year.  Knapp also averaged 6.2 yards per carry in league. The name of the game will be to get Knapp more touches. 

They'll have five games to get a QB ready for league.  I hope they don't split time like last year.  High school games are so short, it's tough on a QB to split time behind anything but a well oiled and really smart O line.
I like the Lancers outlook on D.  DL Kyle Rehberger is only a junior and he'll have Chas Rogers and Eric Knapp behind him. 

When you're at a  Lancer game, keep your eyes on Knapp.  He was 1st team both ways last year, and he deserved it.

Lancers travel to Willamette and Springfield during weeks two and three of league play.

Returning All Leaguers!

Rec Eric Knapp Sr       DB Eric Knapp C Sr
T Scott Prior Sr       DL Kyle Rehberger C Jr
          LB Chas Rogers C Sr

5. Marshfield.  I've never ranked my Pirates in the cellar in baseball or football, and I'm not starting now.  Graduation decimated this team.  The Pirates lost their QB, top five scores, top four rushers and top four receivers.

The hopes of the Pirates lie in the hands of  the dean of MWL coaches, Kent Wigle.  He'll be calling on his seniors to step up for their final year.  He's expecting a big senior turnout, one of two key indicators of success, the other being the number of returning all-leaguers a team has

.QB duties will be in the hands of junior Kyle Tedder.  He hasn't seen significant varsity action, but he is a heady, stellar athlete.  He'll be fortunate to have  senior center, 2nd team all leaguer MacKenzie Freeman in front of him.

Levi Meline, 2nd team all league DB, will be tested a lot and have the opportunity to prove he is a potential first teamer.

If the Pirates pick up wins against the Millers and Wolverines in Susick Stadium, they would probably only have to pick up one league road win to make state.  That's assuming the Millers and Wolverines otherwise play as expected and win most of their games.

Returning All Leaguers!

C MacKenzie Freeman Sr     P Kyle Tedder M Jr
          DB Levi Meline M Sr

6. North Eugene

The Highlanders return one of  two 100 yard rushers in the MWL.  Michael Bibbee averaged 103 yards per league game, averaging 5.0 per carry.  He'll be bigger and stronger, which means more ball control for the Highlanders.

When you have a guy who is carrying the ball 20 times a game, you don't have to have the world's best QB, just a good athlete.  Everyone will creep up to stop the run and allow receivers to get wide open.  Whoever that good athlete is this year will probably be flipping the ball to Tyle Venderhoff, who caught 17 passes during league last year.

North has a favorable schedule.  They'll probably seal their fate the first league game when they host Springfield.  They then have a non league game before hosting the Pirates.  If they get past the Millers and Pirates at home, they have stiff road trips to Willamette and Thurston, but they would have a great shot at a playoff spot in the last league game at home against Churchill. 

Returning All Leaguers!

RB MIchael Bibbee Jr       DB David Harpel NE Sr
Rec Tyler Vanderhoff Sr        
G Shay Riggs Jr        

Don't agree or have an insight, correction or player information?  E-mail your comments to [email protected] 
If you know of any other impact issues, transfers or injuries, please email [email protected].

 
   
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