Question?  On April 8th will we see right handed Jerad Thompson vs lefty Jon Keller in a classic matchup at Churchill?

Who's hot:  McJunkin has gone yard a couple of times.  McJunkin may be hot, but the team is not.....going into league play, having dropped three in a row after playing mostly 3A teams.
Comments:  Pitching is a bit of a question for the Irish.  But senior Joel Smith had some good moments on the mound last year, and the Irish hope he can steady the pitching corps this year.  Otherwise expect more wild scores when the Irish take the field this year.  And wile the Irish have several seniors on the team, the stars may come from other classes.  Besaw (so) was one of the leading RBI men on last years team.  Don't try and fool the Irish.   Manley (jr), Martell (fr), Powell (jr), Moran (jr), and Anderson (sr) have brothers or fathers with recent Irish blood in their veins as players or coaches.

Comments:  Tager was a clutch hitter with men on base last year and had two league dingers.  Fuller, Zach Taylor and White were also strong contributors in the rbi category and will benefit from having seen a lot of the pitchers and being a year older, stronger and quicker.  Ward was dominant in wins over Willamette, Springfield and Thurston last year.  Other than an ugly loss to Redmond, South hasn't let their opponents cross the plate too often.  They'll need their bats to come through to secure a playoff spot.  But after Churchill and North's staffs, they should see hittable pitching.

Who's hot? Grant Willis has collected 2 homers and has looked good on the mound.  Gross, Strailey, Jesse Sweet with the bat and on the mound.  The Colts close pre-league play with a 4-3 win over powerful Roseburg.

Comments:  Looks like the Colts can look to Willis as an RBI man this year after he knocked a few out in pre league play.  Roemen was a key RBI collector for the Colts last year, so the Willis-Roemen combo will be counted on. Sweet had great games on the mound last year against Willamette and Lebanon and fared quite well in his other starts.

Comments: Five players with dingers in pre season puts the Wolverines in the hunt for the fourth place spot.  Add in a lot of pitchers returning from last year, the three returning all stars and a lot of experience for a middle of the pack teams, and Willamette cannot be written off.   They have played five quality pre league games, finishing with two solid games against Valley teams.

Comments:  Lebanon, Marshfield and Springfield are in the same boat.  They all lost a lot of  key players, they are green and they have to find a pitcing staff - fast.  Don't let the poor won-loss record in pre-season play trick you into thinking the Warriors are headed to the bottom of the league.  They were in the vast majority of the games til the very end.  They'll win as the season goes on and they gain experience.

Comments:  McClintock is a three year all-star.  The Pirates have lefty Scott Carpenter who stifled Thurston and Churchill in the second round last year.  They are also counting on junior Ricky Rexine to come through on the mound.  Soph Shane Rose is one of the harder throwers in the league, and if he masters the strike zone, the Pirates could move up.  The Pirates are very young, starting at least one frosh.  Their bats probably won't be too hot the first round as the younger Pirates see varsity pitching.

Comments: Phelps was the entire offense for the Millers last year.  The Millers and Pirates are in the same boat.  They have players with talent, but they need a lot of game time to gain consistency and a batting eye.

2005 Predictions One Week Before League Begins (written March 26)

Lancer - Highlander Showdown at Churchill less than two weeks away

A few people thought that North wouldn't be able to compete with Churchill this year for the MWL title.  Don't use their advice for wagering.  North has played four games against ranked teams and won three of them. The Highlanders have been in every game and own a 4-3 record.  Two of those three losses are against teams I am betting will be ranked soon. 

If it isn't raining and cold Friday, April 8th, there should be some scouts in the stands at the Churchill-North game.  It usually takes a pitching phenom to bring scouts out this early, but maybe the 7 dingers in 4 games by the Lancers (4-0) will make the pros wonder if last years Royster Dinger Display is going to be a Lancer tradition.  Toss in NE's Greer's 2 dingers and Swede's tall walls and the scouts might just want to see who can park it.  Churchill has been nothing but dominant, their average score being 11-1.  That's not counting a suspended 4-3 game at Roseburg.

Any surprises in preseason in the rest of the pack?  Not really.  Sheldon, another team written off by many, is off to a good start, except for the rain.  McJunkin has found the outer pasture a couple of times.  South is looking for their bats, but pitcher Michael Ward has been end-of-the-season sharp in two outings.  I'm still staying with these teams for playoff spots.

Looking at Sheldon or South, the South is most likely to fall.  So which team could slip in the fourth place playoff spot.  Tough to tell, no one else except Lebanon has more than 3 games in.  Lebanon's record is miserable at 1-6, but with the exception of one game with Corvallis, they have been in their games and haven't let their opponents rack up the runs.  Getting in 7 games already for a young team is a huge advantage.  If this young team can keep thier chins up, realize they were in each game and that they are bound to improve a ton, they should finish the first round of league play in striking distance of a playoff spot.

Willamette (1-2), Thurston (2-1), Springfield (0-2) and Marshfield (1-1-1) have been struggling to get some games in. A lack of games will kill the younger teams.  The Wolverines have four bombs in three games, and have some all-star experience back. So look for Willamette to lead this group of teams. Thurston has been a little rocky, but a couple of dingers by Willis has to give them hope.  Thurston has enough returning players to sneak into a playoff spot.  The Colts all everything athlete, Avery Roeman, is finally a senior, and should lead the team.  Springfield and Marshfield have yet to land one over the fence, but the Pirates have been getting some great pitching.

With one week to go here are my picks:

1. North nips Churchill at Churchill on April 8, lives on tightrope in several games as pitching ebbs and flows.
2. Churchill is slugger city. Defense has given up just 4 runs in 4 pre league games.
     Pitching might make Lancers more consistent than NE and give them the title
3. Sheldon.  Two 3A opponents so far to get to 2-0.  But they ARE the IRISH!
4. South Eugene bats quiet in pre league, but Ward is K happy on the mound.
5. Thurston starts slowly, but ramps up fast.
6. Lebanon's strenuous pre league schedule pays off, and green team learns how to play and win
7. Willamette - fewer long ball hitters in the league should give the Wolverines home field advantage,
    but raise those fences for Churchill
8. Marshfield bats are young and punchless, but Carpenter, Rexine and Rose
    on the mound could keep them in games.
9. Springfield.  Who can tell with only two games in so far?

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2005 Thoughts (written in January)

Okay its a little early.  We don't even know which seniors are going to get senioritis and not play or which seniors who haven't  played in a couple of years will turn out.

You have to look at returning pitching and defense to start your projections.  That would seem to put North Eugene back in the drivers seat with Shawn Peterson and Jon Keller returning.  I didn't think either of these guys were intimidating, but I thought they were smart and could pick the corners.  I'll take that any day over heat without control.  North also had at least one JV pitcher who could have pitched at the varsity level last year.  Greer is more than solid at catcher.  Add in the talent of Winterstein and Stiltner and North goes in at number one.

South or Churchill for number 2?  I'm gonna go with Chuchill based solely on South just not tasting playoffs enough. It's in Churchill's favor that they have experienced "knowing what it takes" to get to the playoffs, and how important it is to get a 1 or 2 seed.  Plus how long have Larson and Kent been playing for Churchill?  Forever - and experience counts. Churchill's other returning all-star is Josh Hogan.

On the other hand, last year was a heartbreaker for the Axemen with Faunce out, and they'll probably be content just to make the playoffs this year. The Axemen return enough all-stars to secure a playoff spot.  South brings back all stars Shonti Tager, Andrew Fuller and Dan White (Watura Akaoka transferred to Marist). I like the crew from South.

Now who gets the last playoff spot?  Sheldon always has to be considered.  They have McJunkin, Besaw and Moran back.  That should do it.  Willamette has several returning all stars, TJ Woodke, Matt and Jody Potter.  But they are the most inconsistent team in the world.  They'll beat somebody they shouldn't and lose to someone bad.  Maybe it's that cracker jack box they play in.  You just never know in their park.

Pirates without Duryea?  Don't write them off.  They had a little lefty who threw most of the second round, Scott Carpenter.  If he comes back in good form he should be good for 5 or six league wins.  Some teams had to face a frosh last year, Shane Rose, who threw in the high 80's, but had a little control problem.  If he finds the plate, the Pirates could steal enough wins to make it back to the playoffs.  Don't forget McClintock and Sullivan.  Update! Sullivan won't be playing for the Pirates this year.  That gives the Pirates precisely 3 returning varsity players.  Fortunately, two pitched last year.

I have to put Lebanon, and Thurston in the mix with Marshfield.  Neither has enough returning sure fire players to say they have a realistic shot at fourth.  But the programs have been solid enough they can bounce back from a tough year.  Lebanon has huge shoes to fill with their departing aces.  They just couldn't back up their staff with run support last year.  Thurston returns all star Avery Roeman and Lebanon returns Golden Glover Casey Humphrey.  Matt Phelps is the lone returning all star for Springfield.  I think the Millers have the talent to play some good baseball and they look like they have the fundamentals down.  If they learn to keep their focus through entire ballgames they should move up.

I'll give my real preseason ranking after a couple of weeks of non-league play, but for now, just to start the ball rolling:

1. North whips everyone easily (except Churchill)
2. Churchill's system keeps cranking out fundamentally sound players, and they still have some studs on the team
3. South Eugene should take advantage of weaker pitching through out the league
4. Sheldon had a million players in their system last year and can put together a solid team to support returnees
5. Willamette, fewer long ball hitters in the league should give the Wolverines home field advantage
6. Lebanon by a hair over Thurston.
7.   Thurston could be anywhere from 5th to 8th, and honestly, after picking the top four this year I think the rest
    are all in the same boat.
8. Marshfield is probably a year away from another run at the playoffs.  Look for them to improve a lot during the
    second round after the young newbees get a dose of varsity pitching.  They'll probably return 8 varsity players
    next year.
9. Springfield, but Marshfield or Willamette could tumble all the way to last.

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