2007 Thoughts

2007 Predictions
Link to May 2006 predictions for 2007 before OSAA/Castillo ruling old league format
Link to June 2006 Predictions

Final Pre-League Predictions - April 2

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No change from my February 17th predictions. Churchill has played a tough schedule including lots of tough 6A teams and has been winning. North also played a rigorous pre league schedule featuring a lot of 6A teams and did quite well. Thurson's D has been out of sight. These three should still be 1-2-3, but keep in mind, North gets two out of three against Churchill at home, while the Colts get the Highlanders twice at home. 4-5-6 should be Willamette, Marshfield and Springfield. It's tough to tell the order after pre-league play. Willamette and Springfield have put together quite a few good games on D, while Marshfield has been playing without one of their key pitcher/infielders, who should be back for league . If you have any comments or corrections, please email [email protected].

#1 in League and State. Churchill. I am a voter on OregonLive.com's 5A poll and Churchill will go to number 1. I've never ranked any MWL baseball team in the top 5 pre-season, but the Laancer's are loaded, play a solid pre-league schedule and have the arms to go all the way. With the transfer of Hunter, I can't honestly say North has a shot at them anymore. Now, that'll fire up the Highlanders who have home field advantage with two of three at Swede. Schumacher, Irsfeld and Myrmo back on the mound.   Straka is the lead returning rbi man with 16, followed by Shumacher and Irsfeld. Kreitz and Hoffman are in the 7 plus club. Churchill could start six returning all leaguers:

League stats as reported to the paper. If you recall, last year was not a year for dingers.

Returning all leaguer's
Catcher Justin Hoffman Jr               8 rbi 1HR, 2 Doubles
1st Drew Irsfeld Sr                        13 rbi 1HR, 3 doubles
IF Peter Straka Jr                         16 rbi 2 Doubles
IF Darrell Hunter Jr (from Thurston)   9 rbi 8 Doubles
OF Andrew Schumacher Sr           13 rbi 7 Doubles, 2 Trips
OF Antony Krietz Sr                       9 rbi

Might pitching be their downfall with Thompson and Franke gone and Schumacher (Myrmo and Straka too) playing basketball for at least the first two weeks of baseball practice? Don't count on it. Remember, Irsfeld had a fine season last year and handled North in the second round last year. Irsfeld could be a surprise league ace this year. If no one else on the staff is dominant, then the Lancers could just rotate a ton of very good but not great pitchers at each opponent and no opponent would ever get their timing down.

#2 North Eugene. I think the Hunter move from Thurston to Churchill separates Churchill from North, but it doesn't put North in the mix with the remaining four teams. They are still a premier program. Even though they graduated four all-leaguers, they return three and had a bang up JV season last year.

Returning all leaguer's
OF Dan Winterstein Sr 5 rBI's 5 Doubles, Dinger
OF Brandon Saboe Jr 6 RBI's
P Tyler Woodke Jr 8 RBI

NE other returning key bat is Marcus Lindsey with 9 RBI's last year. Pitchers Peterson and Keller graduated. However, pitchers Winterstein and Woodke are more than capable of taking North to another playoff appearance. And North's JV team would have placed in the middle of the Varsity league last year.

It's a dogfight for the 3-4-5-6 spots. Springfield and North have the most returning all leaguers after Churchill. Marshfield returns two, Thurston and Willamette one.

3. Thurston. Even with Hunter converting from a Colt mascot to a mascot who rides a steed, the Colts should prevail for the last playoff spot. They return the most bats, and the league is sorely lacking in pitching this year. One good arm and a few good bats should take these guys to the playoffs. The lone returning all leaguer is sophomore Danny Urness. But the Colts return some bats in Anrew Harris, Grant Willis and Colin Schaurmann. Grant Willis will probably be the most underrated pitcher in the state. Last year he lost to Chill 2-3, MHS 1-2, SE 2-6, BEAT Chill 5-3, Lebanon 1-2 and Sheldon 3-4. Say no more about the Colts. If they hit this year, they go to state.

Returning all leaguer
IF Danny Urness So

4. Willamette. . The Wolverines bring back a lot of players, and they should be potent on offense. They banged out eight hits a game last year, so with the pitching likely down this year throughout the league, the Wolverines could be battling for a playoff spot. Willamette returns senior Travis Woodke with 9 RBIs's, Grady Wood, Grant Dahlgren and Mac Marshall all with 3 RBI's. Dahlgren and Wood should do better on the mound.

Returning all leaguer
IF Michael Calef Jr 5 RBI

5. Marshfield. Pirates only have three seniors, but return a lot of juniors. Unfortunately, most of the returnees were injured last year or played out of position to cover for the injuries, so they'll be at new positions this year. Pirate success relies entirely on the arms of returning starter Jesse McClintock and senior Shane Rose unless they can develop a new arm. Rose got stuck behind the plate in place of injured Adam Reed, so the league did not see Rose's 90 mph fastball last year. If the Pirates can get innings out of Rose, they could go to the playoffs. No sandbagging accusations allowed.

Returning all leaguer's
F Gatlin Giorgis Jr 4 RBI
U Shane Rose Sr 4 RBI, 3 Doubles
While not all leaguers, juniors Giorgis, Cody Slack, Jesse McClintock, Adam Reed and Fred Keuhn all played in a state playoff game two years ago. Last year Reed was injured and out for the year. His injury (a catcher) started a chain reaction of moving players to positions they weren't used to and the Pirates lost out after a 3-3 league start.

6. Springfield. You'd think that with three all leaguers returning the Millers would be rated higher. However, they graduated a ton of seniors. The Millers were close in 7 of their losses last year. If they can flip flop those close games, they have a shot at state.

Returning all leaguer's
U Dane Hauser Sr     2 RBI
Inf Jay Scott Sr
OF Spencer Lind Sr     7 RBI

June 2006 thoughts about new league predictions for 2007

5A Still the Midwestern League (6 teams - Lebanon, Sheldon and South Eugene are in new leagues)

Is predicting just a simple matter of pulling Lebanon, South and Sheldon out of my previous 9 team prediction? I don't think so. Some smart team is going to figure out that there isn't as much separation among teams as there used to be and that a little more effort and focus will propel them into the playoffs.

Churchill. Schumacher, Irsfeld and Myrmo back on the mound. Straka is the lead returning rbi man with 16, followed by Shumacher and Irsfeld. Kreitz and Hoffman are in the 7 plus club. Five all-Stars returning.

North Eugene. Second place will be close between North and Thurston. A lot will be determined over the summer with summer ball. Winterstein and Woodke on the mound. Lindsey and Woodke only two in the 7 plus club. Three all Stars returning. Didn't get all of the JV scores, but North was at least 11-3. It's tough imagining North not making the playoffs anytime in the next 20 years in a six team league.

Thurston. Willis is back and he could be good for 6 league wins. Unress and Hunter on the mound, too. Just one guy, Hunter in the 7 plus RBI club, but a ton of players return and they know the pitchers now. Two all-stars returning.

Marshfield. I have been accused of sandbagging the Pirates, my alma mater, for three straight years. Why would anything think that? Here is a reminder about last season - the Pirates played all season without their starting catcher, Adam Reed, and didn't throw Rose, who ended up behind the plate. Both are playing AAA ball for Jim Deitz, and both return. The Pirate D was stellar through the first round and until injuries decimated the club. Many of the wounded will be back. However, pitching is a question after the Duryea-Carpenter-Rexine era. McClintock is back on the mound, but playing single A summer ball. Otherwise, the cupboard is bare of anyone who got in many tosses. No one in the the 7 plus RBI club. Two all stars returning. They return a lot of players though - albeit with partial playing time due to injuries.

Willamette. More than a spoiler next year? Pitchers galore. Dahlgren, Wood, Surace, Marshall and Parker can all take the mound. If this program ever gets serious, they will be tough. 7 plus club - just Woodke, but a lot of players are returning and they will have seen most of the pitchers in the league. Wolverine are most likely to surprise everyone next year.

Springfield. Much like Marshfield, except they graduated a lot. Lind in the 7 RBI club. Three all stars returning give the Millers a good starting point.

6A Southwest Conference

Sheldon, South Eugene, Roseburg, Grants Pass, South Medford, North Medford. OK, they are longer trips, but playing at Legion (Roseburg) field regularly with non league games against North at Swede is gonna make playing baseball like being in Heaven. Hey, let's pull Corvallis into the league and play at their field - host of two legion World series - and forget about home games. Too bad Miles stadium is gone. I haven't seen Harry & David field in Medford, but it supposedly holds 1500. So lets, see. Two minor league parks - Civic and H&D, 2 Major league legion field (Legion and Swede for traditional North games) and a high school field at Sheldon. Gotta have one high school field for a reality check and to prepare for the playoffs. (This MWL fan is not familiar with Grants Pass's field.)

SOC's baseball hey days are in the past. You have to go back 7 years to find a SOC team in the finals, so the Irish and Axemen won't be steamrolled in the new conference. Last SOC state final appearance was In 2000, in an all SOC final, Crater (not in the new 6A league) beat North Medford. That's it is for the last ten years.

I don't really know anything about who returns in SOC. But my guess is that the Irish will compete very well next year, with South being in the mix for a playoff spot. And I think the consistently high level of play in this league will ratchet up the already improving Irish and Axemen programs the next few years. Playing in drier conditions in premiere facilities might convert a few almost year round footballers into almost year round baseballers.

Will anyone pay me to be a roving reporter/photographer for the Southwest Conference?

Sheldon. Yikes. Besaw and Hayes back on the mound. Besaw is the 2006 league leading RBI man with 24 and Hayes had 16. Carter, Martell and Wirtala all had 7 or more. Five all-Stars returning. Rumors of solid transfers. We'll see come September.

South Eugene. O'Brien and Rooke-Ley on the mound. Kiesse, Holman, Rooke-Ley and Tractenberg in the 7 plus club. Evan Brown and Jack Carpenter had their moments at the plate too. Five all-Stars returning.

Is May of 2006 too early to think about next year? No way. (written as still a 9 team MWL league)

My very accurate indicators are:

1) Returning pitchers who were good last year
2) Returning hitters with 7 or more RBI's
3) Returning all-stars (at the bottom of all star page)

Sheldon. Yikes. Besaw and Hayes back on the mound. Besaw is the 2006 league leading RBI man with 24 and Hayes had 16. Carter, Martell and Wirtala all had 7 or more. Five all-Stars returning.

Those two teams are probably locks for next year.

North Eugene. Winterstein and Woodke on the mound. Lindsey and Woodke only two in the 7 plus club. Will the Highlanders be on the edge next year? Three all Stars returning. Didn't get all of the JV scores, but North was at least 11-3.

South should be a playoff team. If the league were returning a lot of tough pitchers, I'd say North was in trouble, but that isn't the case.

Lebanon. Can it be? Greene is back, Hiebert too. Only one 7 rbi man returning - Hiebert. Look for another year of great low scoring ball games for the Warriors. Two All Stars returning. Lost 4 all stars to graduation. If I could follow one team all season it would be these guys. In 13 of their league games, the most anyone scored was 6. That's amazing for metal bats and high school ball.

Thurston. Willis is back and he could be good for 6 league wins. Unress and Hunter on the mound, too. Like Willamette, just one guy, Hunter in the 7 plus RBI club, but a ton of players return and they know the pitchers now. Two all-stars returning.

I think Willamette can break out, but I think it's Lebanon or Thurston who are most likely to snare a playoff spot of these three.

Marshfield. McClintock is back on the mound. Otherwise, the cupboard is bare of anyone who got in many tosses. No one in the the 7 plus RBI club. Two all stars returning. They return a lot of players though. Remember, these guys were in it even with some early key injuries, and then their injury toll went out of sight.

Springfield. Much like Marshfield, except they graduated a lot. Lind in the 7 RBI club. Three all stars returning give the Millers a good starting point.

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