The death of a despot will always set in motion a power struggle for succession. In the past six months or so since Deng Xiao Ping's death that struggle has been taking place at one level or another. Next week there will be a big meeting of the Chinese Communist Party where the results of the last half year's campaign for leadership will be revealed. It seems that Jiang Zemin has retained his position and strengthened his "Shanghai clique" as the power brokers of mainland China.
The River must go through the Rock
Jiang is the river and Qiao Shi is the rock. Their campaigns for the number one began after Deng's death (see The Da Lu Duke Out for some background). Jiang had the upper hand being the number one at the time of Deng's death and in being Deng's "hand-picked" successor. Qiao Shi as head of the National People's Congress would be the "number three" and seemed to be the only real competition for Jiang (although a blast from the past Zhao Ziyang, former number one may have made a play at regaining his title, see Is Rain Falling on Jiang's parade). The current number two Li Peng, the Premier, didn't seem to be playing in this game seemingly having learned well from his adoptive father Zhou EnLai to sit back at number two and enjoy the ride.
Qiao made his major play in April while in France. is move had to do with the status of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) as an arm of the CCP vs. being a state army. Qiao took his shot while in France and said:
The People's Liberation Army, founded and led by the Chinese Communist Party, is an army belonging to the state since the founding of the people's republic. According to the Chinese constitution, the state set up the Central Military Commission (CMC) to lead the national armed forces and the chairman is given the responsibility to chair the CMC. The CMC chairman is elected by the National People's Congress, and thus is responsible to the NPC and its Standing Committee.Of course Qiao is the Chairman of the NPC. Jiang on the other hand as the number one head of the Communist Party has consistently maintained that the Communist Party has absolute control of the army. Two articles covering Qiao's statement and challenge to Jiang are here This is actually an interesting tact for Qiao to choose because it is essentially what two "dissidents", Wang Xizhe and Liu Xiaobo, wrote in an article last year. Of course Liu was jailed soon after and Wang fled the country to escape prison for saying these things. Next up came a similar type of squabble on the part of Qiao and Jiang: what to do about Chen Xitong, the former Mayor of Beijing who was discovered in major corruption. Mr. Lam, investigative columnist for the South China Morning Post put it like this:The source said: "Jiang hopes to take personal credit for cracking the case, which has been held up for two years. It will convince party members of Jiang's commitment to fighting corruption and help consolidate his position at the 15th congress."So once again we see Qiao wanting to strengthen procedure and the rule of law. This being because his position is as head of the country lawmaking branch, such as it is. Jiang on the other hand wanted to use the scandal as a feather in his cap and to increase his personal status as the leader whereas Qiao as the head man of the system hoped to use the case to highlight the merits of the system. Lam's article is hereThe source said Mr. Qiao wanted the successful handling of the Chen affair to strengthen the authority of the party's legal establishment, of which he is head.
The River moves to smash through the Rock
Jiang Zemin did not take this sitting down. He made what Mr. Lam called a "pre-emptive strike" speaking out against an unhealthy clique being formed. This clique would include Qiao and his supporters who are "senior cadres from the so-called legal and security establishment." Willy Lam's article on this is hereSo Jiang felt the pressure from Qiao's camp and to counter it tried to make it look like Qiao's camp were trying to become a little ruling clique on their own with too much power for themselves rather than get with the program of Jiang Zemin as the core of the Communist Party.
While at the same time Jiang was maneuvering to get himself into a bigger power position than just the core. He wanted to be "the Chairman." He wanted to get Jiang Zemin thought going and to put himself on the level of Mao, and Deng. In the pantheon of great leaders there would Mao, the Great Helmsman, Deng the Great Architect and then Jiang the Great...something. But it seems cooler heads prevailed and whereas it was one thing to continue the post-Deng leadership as the united front CCP with Jiang as the core, it was another to let this guy get that far up on everyone in terms of authority, much as Jiang would have liked. The bottom line is he didn't earn it yet. Here is Willy Lam's write up on this. So no Jiang Zemin Thought or chairmanship for the fair haired boy.
So what happened finally?
It seems that Jiang Zemin won out against Qiao Shi in terms of their power struggle. I wonder if Qiao decided to bite Jiang's ear when he realized he was losing like Mr. Tyson did to Evandar Holyfield. Tyson, as you can see in the heading illustration of this page, has a tattoo of Chairman Mao on his biceps.
So the upshot is that Qiao looks to lose his job as head of the NPC. And it was reported that Li Peng will take Qiao's position as Li cannot be Premier again. Qiao is given the token job of being the anti-corruption czar. The Hong Kong Standard reported this on August 14 (click here to read the report) but what is interesting is that this information came out a week or more before from Taiwan's Central News Agency (one of their websites is here). The news report from Taiwan was a bland and straightforward report. They reported it first quietly and much later other papers began to report the same thing. But, there have since been reports that the idea of Li being NPC head is being reconsidered. Qiao is definitely out, but reports have said that Li may not get the NPC spot.
One thing that seems sure is that one of Jiang Zemin's Shanghai clique, Zhu Rongji, will become the new Premier. Here is Zhu. He is Warren Christpher's long lost brother who was separated from birth from him. Can you tell which one is which?
This is Jiang Zemin when he saw the heartfelt reunion of the two brothers, he was so touched.
But remember all the fighting over what to do about Chen Xitong, the corrupt Mayor of Beijing who made millions? They decided after all to let the matter go. Chen is gone from political life and no thorn in Jiang's side anymore, so he can stay at home and count his money in his foreign accounts. Here is the latest
The Party Congress to make all this speculation official will be soon. It is slated to open on September 12. We will see if any of this actually comes to pass.
