Read on for my comments or read the comments by MCD, Mad Cow Disease here.

Deng's death is now official. He had a brain hemmorage a day or two before the Chinese new year, as was reported by the Apple Daily. After this report the rumors swirled. Was this just another false alarm? The CCP said it was and that Deng's health was as good as it would be expected to be for a man his age. That's what they always said. The "experts" of course all weighed in. They were saying that maybe he wasn't going to die becaue the CCP government officials overseas all did not rush back to China. But Li Peng and Jiang Zemin who were out of town did go back to Beijing. That was the biggest sign something big was up. Some people think that Deng actually died when he had the stroke, not on the 19th when it was announced officially. This would have been a couple days before the Chinese new year. I heard from some feng shui person that Deng's juju (an American term for this feng shui astrology type nonsense) pointed to him not living to this year of the Ox. So according to the feng shuiers they are not surprised Deng died when he did. But of course they are saying this now, not before.

A lot of people have been talking about the consequences of Deng's death and his legacy etc...I guess I'll throw my two-cents in as well. I wrote this:

He will be viewed as the guy who didn't do enough. Worse than Mao in a way because he saw the benefit of reform and the failure of Chinese communism but would not make the changes necessary to give the people of his country freedom. He himself pointed out that the economic reforms were necessary. It was either that or death. It was a no brainer. But when a chance to serve his people and begin to make reforms for people's freedoms presented itself, he didn't, and worse than not serving the people as all great leaders should, he attacked and killed them.

So his legacy will be mixed.

I don't think that there will be any immediate consquences to his death. It is funny, everyone says I don't think anything will change, but then there will be a moment of silence of inner thoughts and then they'll say, but you never know.

I will say one friend of mine was practically jumping with joy. Someone said that's because he can probably go back to visit China now that he's dead, but on second thought that's still not true yet. With Jiang there it is still not safe for him.

We might like to wish the chain smoking communist dwarf to RIP, but sadly, more likely he will be RIH. If you feel like memorializing him go out and smoke a Gitanes.

More on the consequences of Deng's death and how he will be viewed in history (as per our gracious host's questions).

The immediate consequence for his death is the next few days and weeks. In the past funerals have been the starting point for anti-government demonstrations. The spring 89 democracy movement started this way. In mainland China there is no freedom of assembly so such funerals allow the rare occasions where large masses of PRC citizens can congregate together. So one immediate consequence is that a movement can begin in the immediate future.

History repeats itself, but seldom in the exact same manner. The CCP authorities are well aware of the possibility for a spontaneous event to occur during the next few days or weeks, so they are prepared to prevent this from happening this time. They also have banned any foreign journalists from the funeral. This is clearly so that if anything does occur there will be no one around to report it firsthand. There are reports that to counter this journalists have been traveling to China incognito as businessmen or tourists. Personally I doubt an incident will occur this time.

Another consequence that is immediate and irrevocable is the psychological importance. Deng is dead for real and forever. Even though for the past years it is likely true that he had little to do with the running of the country or policy, he was alive and at any time could have had moments of lucidity where he did make a statement. With his passing the pschological landscape changes for everyone, regular folk and the CCP elites.

Another consequence concerns Taiwan. Deng was the originator of the one country two systems idea. It was developed for Taiwan. Deng later negotiated the return of Hong Kong and decided to apply the one country two systems policy to it. (Of course we all know one country two systems is a joke that really means one country one country, but that's irrelevant for this discussion). Deng greatly hoped to live to attend the handover ceremonies on July 1. He wanted to go down in history as the leader who unified the country. As part of this it would entail after Hong Kong, a "return" of Taiwan. If Deng were alive for this he would go down in history as the greatest leader ever. Given Deng's health this made the recent panic on the part of the CCP in relation to Taiwan understandable. Now that Deng is dead this pressure no longer exists. There needs to be no hurry in unifying with Taiwan for Deng's sake. What the practical consequences of this will be is hard to say, but this urgency to unify China for Deng's place in history is no longer present and is one consequence of his death.

A little more on Deng's legacy, or how he'll be seen in history. As well as being seen as the leader who brought China into the modern world by allowing the people of China to run their own business affairs, he will be seen as one of China's greatest cowards. He was cowed by a young man with no powerfull organization behind him, no resources or military might, someone with only his ideas. Yet Deng Xiao Ping cowered in fear at the thought of him.

Wei Jingshang had only a brush, paper, paint, a wall to put the paper on and his ideas. He simply wrote down what he thought and tacked it up on a wall. He responded to Deng's four modernizations and said there ought to be five. The fifth being democracy. Deng Xiao Ping, who did show great bravery given the context of the time in proposing the four modernizations, none the less quaked in fear when seeing the writing on the wall by Wei Jingshang. Wei, the young patriot simply wrote the truth. Deng, who was consolidating his power as supreme leader of mainland China, the heir to Mao, the last emperor of the red regime, looked at Wei and was cowed.

Yeah I know this last part began to sound heavy handed and pompous, but that's the point. Deng was scared of Wei enough to keep him in jail for essentially all of Deng's rule.

Also I wrote this. I had been talking to some friends about deng's eminent death the night beofre it was announced.

Last night and today, before the announcement I talked to a couple friends from China about this.

One said last night that he likes Deng. He is not a particularly political fellow, not a scholar, just a guy working to save money for when he will immigrate to Canada. His wife and son are still in Beijing. He said that some people in China are worried about Deng dying because the PLA might fight each other. And that some people in Taiwan worry that China might attack taiwan. Maybe if two sides fight on the mainland they would try also to get taiwan involved. He also said most people think Li Peng and Jiang Zemin are stupid, not like Deng. Qiao Shi on the other hand he said was smart.

How realistic the above is (in terms of the fighting) is questionable. The general consnsus is that the transition has all ready occured and will be smooth. I do think that if there is a power struggle it will between Qiao and Jiang.

The other fellow I talked to was a democracy activist and is a strong supporter of democracy in China. He was at the 1989 demonstrations and may have had to come here illegally so as not to be jailed for his participation. He said that this time Deng would probably die. He was pretty happy about it, actually almost giddy. Deng being alive was still a sumbling block for real progress to be made in China. It is good news that he will die is what he said.

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