| 10.03.2004 The Stratits Times Taiwan nervous about possible end of EU arms embargo for China TAIPEI -- Taiwan is getting jittery about a new push within the European Union (EU) to lift a 15-year embargo on weapons sales to arch-rival China. The Taiwanese argue that dropping the ban would shake up the delicate military balance in Asia and increase the threat of war in the Taiwan Straits, a conflict that could drag in the United States and spark a Japanese military buildup. They also insist that the EU embargo - imposed after China's bloody 1989 crackdown on the Tiananmen Square protests - should continue until the Chinese improve their dismal human rights record. Some analysts, while agreeing EU sales could pose a threat to Asia's security, dismiss as hollow the argument that the embargo should be used to push for better human rights, noting that Taiwan has for years been one of China's biggest investors. In recent months, France and Germany have been the most enthusiastic about selling weapons to China. EU leaders are reviewing the policy, but no date has been set for a decision. The French hope the arms sales to China can help create a more 'multipolar' world with several strong nations or blocs that can check American power, said Mr Willem van Kemenade, a Dutch sinologist and author who's writing a new book about the US-China-EU relationship. Mr Van Kemenade does not think scuttling the ban would destabilise the region. For many years to come, European nations' arms sales to China will represent just a fraction 'of what the US is stuffing into Taiwan,' he said, referring to years of American weapons sales to the island. But Mr Lai I-chung, director of foreign policy studies at the Taiwan Thinktank, said there would be booming trade with China's massive, big-spending military if the EU embargo ended. With advanced weaponry, China would feel emboldened and tempted to use force to achieve its sacred goal: unification with Taiwan. 'The regional balance of power will be tipped over,' Mr Lai said. Lobbying for the EU arms embargo to continue has become a top priority for Taiwan in recent weeks. Grass-roots support is beginning to build, and a small protest was held last Friday in the capital. But analysts note that human rights considerations rarely factor into Taiwan's commercial relations with China, just 160km across the Taiwan Strait. Taking advantage of economic sanctions against China imposed by Western nations after June 1989, the Taiwanese stomped into the Chinese market and has maintained a major presence there since. Trade between the two sides totalled US$5.1 billion in 1990, and it more than doubled to US$11.6 billion in 1992, according to Taiwan's government. -- AP |
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