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| EDITORIAL Worrisome muscle flexing Relations across the Taiwan Strait continue to deteriorate. The re-election of Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian has alarmed the mainland government, which is convinced Mr. Chen seeks Taiwan's independence. China has been sending signals that it is prepared to take military action if Taipei takes that fateful step. That does not mean war is imminent. But the military muscle-flexing does create opportunities for mischief, miscalculation and mistakes. Since Mr. Chen was elected president four years ago, China has been worried that he will push the independence agenda. His behavior during his first term confirmed many of Beijing's worst suspicions. His re-election this year increased fears that the island would split from the mainland. Even before his inauguration, Beijing released a statement warning against any rash actions. Instead, Mr. Chen's inaugural address was moderate, more notable for what he promised not to do, than what he hinted might lie ahead. For that caution, credit consultations between Taipei and Washington, not Beijing's bluster. After the unprecedented verbal slap that U.S. President George W. Bush delivered to Mr. Chen in December, at a meeting with visiting Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, Taiwan and the U.S. have worked to ensure that both sides are comfortable with what the other is doing. Despite U.S. reassurances that it wants neither side to unilaterally change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, and the recent visit by national security adviser Condeleezza Rice, which stressed Washington's continued adherence to the "one China policy" and the important items on which the U.S. and China can cooperate, Beijing has not been mollified. Its rhetoric continues to escalate and Chinese has begun military exercises that are designed to send an unambiguous signal that China is prepared to take military action if needed. The Dongshan military exercises, which are being held on Chinese islands in the Taiwan Strait, include an estimated 18,000 Chinese troops in air, land, and sea maneuvers that look a lot like an invasion of Taiwan. The mainland press has been giving them a great deal of publicity, showing off the country's newest military hardware while blaming the U.S. for supporting Taiwan's separatist ambitions with arms sales and the continuing U.S.-Taiwan defense alliance. The Chinese exercises occur at the same time as the U.S. "Summer Pulse 2004" military exercises. "Summer Pulse" is designed to test U.S. preparedness for a global conflict. It involves 50 warships from over seven aircraft carrier strike groups, 600 aircraft and over 150,000 troops. While it is tempting to see the two exercises as related -- and much of the reporting has linked the two -- they are not. The U.S. exercise was planned long before the Taiwanese election, the seven aircraft carriers are not in Chinese waters, or even in the Western Pacific. Contrary to reports, Taiwan is not participating in the exercise, although the island has been holding some interesting drills of its own -- including emergency landings of military aircraft on highways, as might occur during a conflict. In other words, tensions are high. There is little chance that the three militaries will be brushing up against each other, but accidents can and do happen. It was a little over three years ago that a Chinese fighter accidentally clipped a U.S. surveillance plane, sending the Chinese plane into the sea, killing its pilot and forcing the U.S. aircraft to make an emergency landing on Hainan Island. That incident set off a crisis in Sino-U.S. relations, and drove home the point that both governments need to work harder to stabilize their relationship. China's increasing belligerence and its military muscle flexing are proof that its Taiwan policy is failing. The criticism of the U.S. and Singapore -- for a recent unofficial visit by Deputy Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong to Taiwan -- sounds desperate and shrill. It also reminds regional governments that Beijing can be intransigent and stubborn when it wants something and those ambitions are thwarted. That threatens to erase many of the gains made by China's "smile diplomacy" over the last few years. China must find a new way to deal with Taipei. The talk of military options and "acceptable" costs is no substitute for a realistic policy that engages Taiwan, and especially the Taiwanese people. Beijing must recognize that Mr. Chen is the duly elected Taiwanese president, and even if it does not like him, pretending he does not exist is not a viable strategy. The alternative is continuing bluster and the growing likelihood of a miscalculation that could end in conflict. The Japan Times: July 27, 2004 |