EDITORIAL
Respect and contempt
The Straits Times, May 20, 2004
TO FOREIGNERS, interpreting statements by Chinese on Taiwan can sometimes seem like interpreting riddles wrapped in enigmas surrounded by mysteries. How significant is it when an influential Chinese figure says in an article published in this newspaper that China can live with a Republic of China in Taiwan that claims to represent all of China, but not with a Republic of China that claims only Taiwan as its province? How much to read into the fact that the latest statement from the Office for Taiwan Affairs of the Chinese Communist Party and the Taiwan Affairs Office of China's State Council, issued last Sunday, did not mention 'one country, two systems', the usual Chinese mantra on Taiwan? What weight should be placed on their surprising offer instead to discuss giving Taipei 'international living space commensurate with its status', if it accepts that there is only one China, and that Taiwan is an inalienable part of that China? Is this a conciliatory gesture - after all, it seems to concede what Taipei has been desperately seeking for a long time, a position in international bodies like the World Health Organisation and the World Trade Organisation - or is it a threat? Which is more important here - the carrot or the stick?
The correct answer to that question is 'both'. Through all the twists and turns of cross-Taiwan Strait polemics, Beijing has never wavered on the fundamentals. It has repeatedly made plain its adherence to the 'One China' principle, and it has constantly stated its willingness to defend that principle with force if necessary. Its tactics may shift from time to time to accommodate new political realities in Taiwan or international public opinion, but it never loses sight of its fundamental aims. Last Sunday's statement was no different in this respect.
The conciliatory gestures, like the offer of 'international living space' and the proposal of confidence-building mechanisms in military affairs, were tactical in nature. They were signals to global as well as Taiwanese public opinion that China was prepared to go to extraordinary lengths to prevent Taiwan drifting towards de jure independence. The strategy, however - the iron underneath the statement's soft exterior - remained unchanged. Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian, the statement declared, had two alternatives before him: One, he could draw back from the brink and work for closer relation with China - in which case, he would be rewarded with a number of things, including 'international living space'. Or two, he could go on chancing the brink - in which case, he and his fellow separatists would 'meet their own destruction'. China, the statement said, would crush any move towards Taiwan independence 'firmly and thoroughly at any cost'. If Mr Chen is inclined to disbelieve this, he might recall what Chairman Mao Zedong said of his attitude towards the Kuomintang during the Chinese civil war: 'You must despise your enemy strategically, but respect them tactically.' The conciliatory gestures in Sunday's statement signified tactical respect; the iron underneath remained a strategic contempt.
Beijing is clearly prepared to do a great deal to avoid war over Taiwan. It is more intent now on avoiding a permanent rupture with Taiwan than on reunification. Should Mr Chen persist in pressing his agenda in the face of this goodwill barrage, he will do no more than strengthen international support for China if it chooses to use force. That is the moment when tactical respect will tip over into strategic contempt, with consequences hardly to be imagined for Taiwan. |
