Why BV is flawed
by Mike Wittman
a Rocco Baldelli collector,
eventually it is going to get to the point where I can't get anymore from the
people in the board. I then go to card shows, and then online to eBay.
At a card show, I find a Baldelli auto that I need, and ask the dealer how much
it is. $20, he says. I now the BV is $25. "Over half BV for an auto? No way!" I
say to myself as I find myself in the awkward situation when you have to reject
the dealer because he is charging too much. "Thanks" I say, and walk away from
the dealer. It is the only Baldelli card I would find all day at the show.
"Ugh. Why did I even pay the $2 to get in here?" I ask myself. "That could've
paid for the shipping for a Baldelli auto on eBay."
I rejected the dealer because I wanted to save money, but when I get on eBay, I
don't buy anything, telling myself I'd rather wait.
Of course, that same Baldelli auto (which I got in a trade), is "worth" the same
as the Blalock auto of the same set. Baldelli and Blalock are both going to get
REALLY, REALLY good, but Blalock has the stats this year, while Baldelli's been
injured, suffering from the sophomore slump. Ebay value for both, Baldelli $9,
Blalock $15.
But the "value" of both are not $9 and $15. In fact, if you wanted to try to
trade that Baldelli auto for that Blalock auto, it would be a tough sell unless
you were a Baldelli collector. The "book value" is the same, but for some
reason, the "trade value" is different.
Earlier this year, there was a D'Backs prospect named Chad Tracy who was tearing
it up. He had an astronomical BA, and everyone went to get his stuff.
His auto, valued at $20 (Bowman), and $10(Topps), went throught the roof. Sales
were going at $15, $20, $25 on this hot prospect, way over the "value" of the
cards. Now, he's calmed down. Last reported sales of the Bowman and Topps? $4
and $1, respectively.
When I was on vacation, I pulled an A-Rod patch card (5 color) #'d 50. VERY nice
card. I was trying to explain to my mom that the "value" was $60 and I was going
to sell it. She said that was great, and what are you going to use the $60 on? I
said, no, it will only sell for $20-30, because that's what it's "worth".
That's when I realized that "value" and "worth" were different things. As
everyone knows, Beckett Magazine assigns every card a "value". Most players have
similar BV for all of their GU, and a similar one for their BV. I can expect
most of my Baldelli GU to be $10 and the autos to be $25. It doesn't take make
much thought to assign a meaningless "value" to all of the GU cards of say,
Rocco Baldelli.
Beckett makes their BVs by assigning players to one of 4 "lists". Listed stars
are people like Clemens, Pujols, etc. Their GU are $20 almost ALL the time.
Unlisted stars are people like Pedro, Maddux, Chipper Jones, and most retired
stars. Their GU books $15 unless it's shortprinted to 25 or less. Semistars are
usually young stars. Baldelli, Blalock, Teixeira, Pudge, etc. GU books $10, and
autos book $25 unless they are shortprinted. Minor stars are most everyone else.
Dontrelle, Schilling, Halladay and others. GU books $8. Then there is another
list, of what I call the "reject pile" GU books $5. A good example is Andruw
Jones.
However, the "value" never, NEVER equals the "worth". Try to sell a Chipper
Jones GU for $15 and people will think you are crazy. Most people go by 25%-35%
for GU, and 25%-40% for autos, usually even less. The only people who charge
full value is card shops. I bet that almost everyone who reads it has never
bought a GU from a card shop once they realized what it is worth.
One of the funniest parts of "value" is the "low value". Generally it is 2/5 of
the High value. This is never used in a trading or selling setting. This is the
explanation of low value from Beckett.
"The LO column represents the lowest selling price one could find through
extensive shopping....Most modern era insert cards are too thinly traded to
establish a consistent..price....The published..prices are a single snapshot in
time and cannot be exact for every card."
It would not take that much "extensive shopping" to find a Chipper Jones GU for
less than $6. Average selling price is probably $4 or less. At a card show, I
got a $15 GU of HOFer Eddie Murray for $5, less than the "extensive shopping
price". I didn't even extensively shop!
Imagine how difficult this is to follow for a new collector who just pulled a
Roy Halladay game used.
"OK, according to this value magazine, my new awesome game used card is worth
$8! That's awesome, I only paid $5 for the pack! I can make $3! Wait, why did my
friend who collects cards only wants to pay one third of the value for it? That
would be a huge rip-off for me! Why can't I get full value for my new card?
Maybe value is not accurate? I'm confused."
The only real use for BV is for trading purposes. But even THEN it's flawed. The
"value" of how far my card can go is decided by magazine editors and a list.
Even being a Baldelli collector and a fan, I can say that Jim Edmonds is the
best CF in the game right now. But wait! According to the Magazine editors, even
though Edmonds is an All-Star and maybe an unlikely MVP candidate, Baldelli GU
cards are "valued" at the same as Edmonds GU. What? I'm even pretty sure that in
2 years of cards, Baldelli has more GU than Edmonds! Edmonds GU are scarcer and
Edmonds is 4 times the player Baldelli is, called the most fundamentally sound
player in baseball, and you're telling me that he is "worth" as much as a 2nd
year CF? Unreal.
Value is decided by magazine editors. A $10 GU card can sell or have different
trade value for different than another. A $8 card can sell for as much as a $15
card. It obviously doesn't take much to see that this system is flawed. What we
should have is more intervals of BV. Beckett knows that a $15 card will sell for
$5. So make the BV $5! It's really not that different to comprehend. Get rid of
the stupid "low value", and make the cards value be actually what they're worth!
I subscribe to Beckett and will continue, as it is a sad necesity in today's
world, but I still think change should be in order.
I only hope that "value" and "worth" can eventually be the same.
EDIT: Whoa, thanks a lot Beckett! I guess now Rocco Baldelli isn't a good
player. He got downgraded from a semistar to a "minor star", which drops his $10
GU to $8, $25 autos to $15, etc.
My personal thanks go out to that one magazine editor who devalued my collection by $80. Thanks a lot, man...