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Understanding the level of uncertainty in a decision making task is crucial for effective decision making. It has been recommended that the provision of uncertainty information (UI) should improve decision making performance by providing the decision maker with an indiciation of task uncertainty. Empirical evidence confirming this hypothesis has not materialised. Decision makers may have ignored UI in favour of other information cues, such as historical information. Additionally, in previous studies the level of task uncertainty may have been expected and therefore the UI added little value. This study, using a paper based experiment, investigates the influence of task uncertainty and information disclosure on the effectiveness of UI in a capital investment decision making task. Results show that UI improved decision performance, but most effectively when it was accompanied by forecast information. A contingency model for understanding how UI can be effectively used in decision making is discussed. |
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