Unlike other handicappers out there, we like to consider the Masked Prognosticator�s website a FREE educational tool for the serious football handicapper! No expensive phone numbers, no high-pressure salesmen.
Not yet anyway.
Jim Feist hasn�t called yet.
In that light, we want to share with you some of the Masked One�s treasured principles on NFL wagering. In a pathetic attempt to get hits, we will only publish a few of them at a time, forcing you to click back over and over again as the Masked Prognosticator drips his pearls of wisdom here on the Internet! (Yes, Virginia, there IS a catch!)
Hope you enjoy and heed this advice, and remember the most important axiom of all:
"Bet with you head- not over it!!!"
1. Keep it simple.
Don�t get bogged down in page after page of stats on each game. If you have to over-analyze a game to make a pick, maybe you shouldn�t pick it. Unless you plan on being a full time, professional handicapper. Trust us, you�ll most likely have the same lifespan in that career as a day trader.
Leave the grunt work to us.
2. You don�t have to play every game.
Last season we actually went 5 WEEKS throughout the year with no picks. The odds say the more you play, the more you will lose.
Be conservative and exercise discipline. If you play on more than 2 games a week, your walking on really thin ice.
Think about the odds: if you play one game, you have a 50% chance of winning. If you play two, you have a 25% chance of winning both, BUT STILL A 75% CHANCE OF WINNING AT LEAST ONE GAME. With some wise and prudent picking, you can make it better than 75.And the sweet thing is there is only a 25% chance of losing both games!
Splitting every week won�t make you money, since there�s the vig, but at least you won�t die penniless either. If you can have more 2-0 weekends than 0-2 ones, you are guaranteed to at least break even!
It�s when gamblers try and pick three games, or hit the dreaded �parley� that they end up like Omar Sharif. First off, your odds of hitting a parley (going 3-0) are 1 in 8. Unless your bookie is giving out 8-1 payouts or better, it�s a sucker bet.
In addition, if you just bet three games straight up, then the odds of having a split or better are only 50%. Your odds of having a losing week go from 25% up to 50%. And, the chances that you will lose at least one game are 87.5%!
While it is easier to increase your odds betting only 1 or 2 games, trying to come up with three winners takes more time and research, thus your chances of success generally will be LESS than 50%. Why the hell bother?
Use that pencil. Cross off that third game from your card. You�ll be thankful you did!
If you research wisely, you can increase the odds of making that split at least a worse case scenario, which ain�t bad.
Don�t spread yourself thin.
3. You won�t win every game.
There are no guarantees in the NFL. Handicapping isn�t about picking the against the spread winner of a football game. It is about picking the maximum two games on the weekly card that you feel you have the best chance of winning. If you lose a game, don�t kill yourself. Even we lose games- several at a time. Use the experience as a learning opportunity.
Sometimes even the perfect play simply goes wrong!
4. Systems before trends.
Critics scoff at using systems in the NFL. Yet a good NFL system backed by logic and history is a powerful handicapping tool since it applies to ANY NFL team in that particular set of circumstances. Then use statistics and match-ups to verify the system makes sense. Finally, confirm your argument with trends.
While you should examine team trends, try to beware of little piddly trends scaring you off a great system. For instance, in Week 17 of the 2001 season, we were heavily leaning towards New England -6 1/2 at Carolina. New England was playing for the AFC East title; Carolina was off 14 straight losses, and was pretty much ready to spud the season. Figure in that NFL teams off 4 or more SU losses are 0-7 ats in the NFL over the last 4 years, and it was a lock, right?
Well, unfortunately, we made it complicated. I over analyzed this one, and discovered much to my chagrin that the Patriots are something like 1-15 ats as December out road favorites, and a few other trends that bothered me. The fact that the Patsies yards gained W-L record was considereable less than their SU W-L record convinced me that they were overrated. I took Washington -3 1/2 pver Arizona instead.
The result? New England crushed the Panthers; and Washington missed covering the spread against the crummy Cards by 1/2 POINT.
I might NEVER stop whining about this one!
But you still should make sure you do your homework when it comes to matchups. Last year the lowly Bengals went into Baltimore off 2 straight shutout losses. The NFL System showed that the rare situation where NFL teams are shut out twice in a row is a 60%+ play. But the Bengals were a horrible team, so we laid off the game. Sure enough, the Bengals finally scored, but still got their asses handed to them by the future Super Bowl Champions. This leads us to Law #5:
5. Don�t back crappy teams.
The stars might all be lined up perfectly, but bad teams will still find a way to lose. To quote Alec Baldwin in �Glenngarry Glenn Ross�:�I�d wish you luck, but you wouldn�t know what to do with it.�
REVERSAL: Only when good teams in horrible scheduling situations are laying major lumber should you consider a bad team.
6. Injuries, schminjuries.
Injuries, except for the quarterback position, should be noted but not be used as the sole reason for your selection. For every NFL player, there are 10 ready to take his place, and to steal that job. That�s called motivation.
REVERSAL: QB injuries sometimes do matter. It depends on who the replacement is and how good the team is.
A bad team with a second string rookie quarterback will get crushed. But when it comes to a good team, we have found that the squad will rally around the sub, and play harder, if because of an injury.
On the other hand, maybe you might want to lay off these kinds of games!
7. Don't jump on the bandwagon.
Watch out for teams with good records but poor stats. Each week, keep a record of what each teams W-L record would be if the game was decided by total net yards gained. If Chicago is 9-2 and was outgained in 7 of those games, take a look at the other side. The Bears either have played an easy schedule or have had several turnovers fall their way. Bet against overrated teams, bet on underrated teams.
8. Make your play on Friday.
Jumping on a number too early in the week is fatal, unless it is so totally out of whack you can't pass it up. What is the quarterback DOES get injured?
But wait until Sunday, and the line could change up to a full point from Friday. Why Friday? By Saturday, most websites have their info up, and many radio sports touts have made their selections. The name of the game is to get an edge on the line. By the time Saturday rolls around, everyone and his brother has all the same info you do, and the line falls to where it usually should be. Then you lose the value.
9. Avoid Monday Night.
These are the most watched and most bet games, therefore Las Vegas sharpens their lines on Monday night. That's not to say there aren't good values on Monday Night games here and there- just that with 12-14 games on Sunday that are less scrutinized, why not place your money where you have the best chance of winning?
10. NFL teams Only Have So Many Units of Energy Each Week
The NFL schedule is brutal. Football is brutal. That's why there's only 16 games. One week is not always enough time for teams to recover from injuries, get their emotions in check, and properly prepare for their next opponent. Try to identify mismatches between teams in bad scheduling situations and teams in favorable ones.
Here's the system we use:
Take last week's game, and next week's game and assign each team a number from 1 to 5 for both based on their opponent (bye weeks= 0 points). Division opponents must be worth at least 3; non-division no more than 3 points. Add 1 point for a win last week, and 1 point for a must win game next week. Add 1 point for a Monday Night game, past or present. Consider adding a point if next week's game is revenge. Never go above 5 however. Some games are always 5, like Dallas vs. Washington, or Kansas City vs. Oakland. Take the total, then subtract from 10.
Do this for each team on the card. More likely than not, you should indentify at least one 7 or higher playing a team rating 3 or lower, or another combination of a rating difference of 4 or more. The higher numbered team should have more energy and desire to win that game.
If the higher rated team is a dog, even better.
Use this as a guide to narrow down 2-4 games you should take a close look at, not a be all and end all.
For instance, we identified a nice play a few weeks ago where San Diego was giving 7 points at home to Arizona. San Diego was wedged between Oakland, clearly a 5 game, and Seattle, with San Diego being a possible playoff contender at the time, another 5, a classic "look ahead" game.
5 + 5= 10. 10-10=0. San Diego was out of units, caught as a morsel in a tasty division sandwich.
Arizona on the other hand didn't look like much, but was off beating the winless Detroit Lions, an easy 1 + 1 point for the win=2. Their opponent the next week was Oakland, we will give that a 3, since the Raiders are a high profile non-division team. That makes Arizona a 5, 10-5=5. It's 5 v 0, a NICE 5 point energy rating spread.
Looking deeper at the game, you have a 0 team that was outgained their last three times giving 7 points to a 5 team. A few other trends and voila!!! We took the dogs, and cashed in!
Please remember. . . The Unit Theory is merely a guide to help identify teams in brutal scheduling situations. Make sure you back all your picks with proper research, and never force a play!
11. DON'T GET COCKY
I've seen it hundreds of times. Some big mouth who is either on a lucky streak or who has convinced themselves that they have the Play of the Century goes on some message board and starts talking trash.
Boy is it fun to watch them get their picks wrong!
Don't fall into this trap. I know I have. When you start getting cocky, you start making mistakes. Thinking you know it all, you take shortcuts. You do stupid things like bet against Miami at New York in December- without doublechecking the weather forecast which would have told you it was going to get up to 60 degrees. Or taking a touchdown or more dog, convinced it's a sucker bet.
Then 5 minutes before the game you realize their star quarterback is out that week.
Enjoy your winning streak. But keep in mind two things: a broken clock is right twice a day, and the more you win, the higher the odds are that you will win again. If anything, bear down and work harder!
So don't act like an asshole. Do your homework. Your job is to find games with value, not to be Nostradamus. Show humility. Or the Gods of Luck will.
Then you will be Nostra-dumbass.
GOOD LUCK!
BE SURE TO CHECK BACK TO READ MORE ADVICE!!!!!!
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