Truly bad teams that really do need high draft picks to build their franchises don't get them because they went 10-6 in a schedule full of donkeys. As a matter of fact, the last 2 seasons, NFL teams that finished .500 or less, St. Louis and Baltimore, went on to win the Super Bowl the next year.
Even more disturbing, three teams: St, Louis, Washington and Indy were .500 or below in 1998; made it to the playoffs in 1999, then were demoted back to also-rans in 2000. The combined ats and SU record of these three units last year was below.500!
For that reason, this year look for improving but overrated teams like New Orleans and Philadelphia to take a step back as they face real schedules this year, not like last year when they played a bunch of XFL scrubs.
Look out for underacheivers like Dick Vermeil's Kansas City Chiefs, George Seifert's Carolina Panthers, the awakened Jacksonville Jaguars and free agent loaded Washington Redskins, lead by new coach Marty Schottenheimer, to step it up a notch. We also like that Baltimore signed a real quarterback to supplement thair scary defense, but in the NFL with everyone out to beat the champ, it is so hard to repeat.
That, free agency and the proliferation of too many NFL teams has made it harder and harder to forecast who the will be the Super Bowl champions each year.
What ever happened to the good old days when you could count on the Raiders, Cowboys, Steelers, 49ers, Broncos and Bills to be playing for the NFLs top prize season after season?
Titans? Rams? Saints? Who ARE these teams?
More so than ever it is so difficult to seperate wheat from the chaff. Nonetheless, each week from now until September 9 we will take a look at each team in the NFL, their current situation, some key trends to look for, and finally key handicapping opportunities you should circle on your calendar!
We will add about 3-5 teams each week, in a shameless attempt to get you to keep coming back to the site. But were not total heels. We will go back to the first few teams we look at, and as we get closer to opening kickoff, revise some of our previews and predictions as training camp and pre-season unfold!
AFC EAST
1st Place- INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (updated July 29)
Colts go 10 wins back to back since 1977. Trouble is, seems that was last time Jim Mora won a playoff game. Crappy D last year didn't help but Mora cleaned house. Offense is awesome- but you gotta keep the other guy from scoring, or no Super Bowl. Until then, Baltimore 1, Indy 0.
PLAYS: MAYBE AGAINST vs. New Orleans 11/18 (0-8 su/ats on road after beating Miami); AGAINST v. any div team as 6+ point favs (1-8-1 ats); AGAINST as favs in first playoff game.
BOTTOM LINE: Nice team. Too bad coach is a choke artist.
2nd Place- BUFFALO BILLS (updated July 20)
Don't laff too hard. If you do, Bills bite back badd. Remember the 8-8 rule? WHO WON THE BIG GAME LAST 2 YEARS? Bills posted top 10 stats, but like Jax and Skins, didn't post the W's. Went 14-2 in yards last season. QB controversy? O-V-E-R. Flutie Flakes to San Diego- Johnson stays. Bills face only 3 winning teams Games 5-16. Only twice since 1990 have the Bills went 8-8 and not made the Big Dance next season. New coach Gregg Williams is a concern, and free agency was not good. Nice draft. We say: Bet on the Bills to make the playoffs!
PLAYS: Any game as Home Dog (12-2 ats); AGAINST 12/2 at SF (2-14 ats off Fins; 0-9 ats off Fins at home); AGAINST 12/16 in NE (1-12-1 ats in 2nd Pats game); 11/4 hosting Indy (13-3 ats v. Indy at home)
BOTTOM LINE: Bills go 0-5 in the Super Bowl?
AFC CENTRAL
5th Place-CINNCINNATTI BENGALS (updated July 17)
More of the same from kitty kats of NFL, or the 3rd Darkhorse team in a row? Poor Bengals. Kijana Carter- bust. Akili Smith- bust. Warrick Dunn? Jury out. Corey Dillon- signed. That is good. JOHN KITNA? This guy is your savior? Bengals are 12-30 SU in September. Even worse, last year they won back to back games. For the first time since 1989. Bottom line: we said 8-8 or less teams have shot at The Big Game. Bengalis need to show us they ARE one of them. We're not ready to join the striped bandwagon just yet.
PLAYS: AGAINST 12/23 at Baltimore: Bengals 1-8 ats game 2 with Ravs.
BOTTOM LINE: The Young and the Worthless.
6th Place- CLEVELAND BROWNS (updated July 20)
Carmen Policy�s Midas touch is long gone. Poor Chris Palmer-Lombardi might have a losing season with all the injuries from last year. We say- FIRE THE TRAINER! Now Butch Davis comes in with tons a free agents and Gerard Warren out of Florida. 5-11 this year would be considered a success. Don�t laff- that�s the total number of wins the Browns have since reentering the NFL! Meanwhile Art holds a Super Bowl trophy. Life is cruel to Cleveland. Sorry, Drew, but Cleveland does NOT rock.
PLAYS: Sorry, we don't handicap sandlot football.
BOTTOM LINE: Now THIS is the type of expansion team we know and love!
AFC WEST
1st place- DENVER BRONCOS (updated July 26)
Great off season for the Broncs. They ink Leon Lett and Chester McGlockton and had a nice draft, hopefully plugging dikes in Denvers disspointing D. Ray Rhodes as new defensive co . . .niiice. New stadium, new players, the most prepared coach in all of football . . question is: is Brian Griese that good?
PLAYS: ANY as AFC West dog (9-0 ats); v. 9/16 Indy (9-1 ats game 2; 3-0 v. Colts); v10/21 v. SD (13-1 ats game 7; 7-1 after Seattle; 4-0 at SD); 9/30 home v. Baltimore (6-1 in Denver)
BOTTOM LINE: Super Bowl trophy in South Park?
4th place- KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (updated July 29)
Dick Vermeil�s a good coach. The Kansas City Chiefs are a pretty mediocre team. Sound familiar? Wink wink. Sorry, KC, not this year. Elvis Grbac- gone. Chester McGlockton and James Hasty- see ya. Spring cleaning is over. Trent Green comes in at QB- goooooood choice. Baaaaaaaad knee. Pray the backup played in the Arena League.
PLAYS: 10/14 vs. Pittsburgh (7-0 ats off Denver); 12/23 v. San Diego (ditto); 9/9 v. Oakland (11-0 in home openers when v. AFC West, 17-2 ats overall; 8-1 ats in div. home openers; 7-2 in KC v. Oakland); 9/16 as RFs v. Seattle (5-1 ats off raiders; 15-2 ats games 1-3 as favs);
BOTTOM LINE: Kansas City Red sings Keystone Blues. We still collect the "Green".
NFC EAST
4th Place- ARIZONA CARDINALS (updated July 29)
One winning season since moving to the Desert, and ONE- count it- ONE friggin' playoff win since 1946. Welcome to the garbage of the NFL. Dave McGinnis replaces Vince Tobin. Tobin got that win- but Cards D lost the yards 4-25. Some holes were plugged in in the draft, but losing Simeon Rice to TB hurts. Jake Plummer: Arizona hero or desert scrub?
PLAYS: against off 3 straight wins (AS IF!) (1-8 ATS); AGAINST 9/23 vs. Denver (2-11 SU and ATS home openers/ 0-6 ats after Washington); ON as a 7 point + home dog (12-1 ats); AGAINST 12/15 as dogs at NY (3-13-1 ats as dogs at Meadowlands)
BOTTOM LINE: Any visions of winning NFL football is a desert mirage.
5th Place- DALLAS COWBOYS (updated July 20)
Bandwagon jumping-off Cowboys fans hide their Emmett jerseys. Boyz post 1 Super Bowl and a losing record since Jimmy J left. Which JJ was The Man now? Jerry J had a BAAAAD off-season. Aikman gone- Tony Banks in. Banks- great athlete- lousy QB. Emmitt�s old. Joey Galloway�s damaged goods. Really bad season coming up. Too bad it�s not �89!
PLAYS: After ANY game they scored �10 points in (16-3 SU); AGAINST off any SU win, 1-10 ats and 0-11 SU!
BOTTOM LINE: Drunk Philly 700 level fans are right: �DALLAS SUCKS!�
NFC CENTRAL
TBD- TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (updated July 20)
Bucs bring in backs- namely Brad Johnson and zero turned �hero� Trent Dilfer- and Ryan friggin' Leaf???? 2 out 3 ain�t bad. Card Simeon Rice is signed to DE. Bucs draft well: OL Kenyatta Walker to protect said QBs. CB Dwight Smith too. Now for the bad news: Bucs play 2nd toughest schedule in NFL this year.
PLAYS: AGAINST 12/2 at Cincinnati and 12/16 at Chicago (too cold); ON or AGAINST 10/28 v. Minny (loser of game 1 ats 9-0 2nd); ANY game after they score �7 pts back to back (5-0); AGAINST 11/18 v. Chicago- 0-12 SU in fourth straight div game!
BOTTOM LINE: This year�s Redskins.
5TH Place- CHICAGO BEARS (updated July 14)
Too many questions to make us have visions of Ditka and the Fridge. Cade McKnown so far has been a stiff. Jim Miller is a mediocre journeyman. Despite mid-season tour of the CFL, the schedule is still brutal. Bears outstatted 3 of last 4 foes last year. But they have bad habit of starting slow at 3-17 SU in Games 1-4. 7 wins is a pretty good number for the Bears, but stay away from a betting the over on a 6. Who knows, by the end of the season Chicago football fans might be calling for the Enforcers!
PLAYS: Opening day at Baltimore, if getting 14 points or more. SB champs start slow (so do the Bears, but systems, systems!); 12/16 at home v. Tampa Bay. Sunshine State squads sink in snow; Bears 5-1 ats last home; AGAINST Bears in any game after their first win, and any win over div!
BOTTOM LINE: No "Super Bowl Shuffle" anytime soon- thank goodness.
NFC WEST