Moving Ahead

Abstract

After being isolated from the modern world since 1962, Myanmar's military junta is opening its doors to welcome a fresh infusion of much needed cash flow and investments. While the political deadlock between the government and the opposition continues, Myanmar is poised for a more active role in the geopolitical landscape of Southeast Asia. This article attempts to explore the problems besieging Myanmar today, its foreign relations and to analyse its future direction in both the political and economic arenas.

Grounds of Discontentment

Since the military junta's takeover of Myanmar in 1989, the economy has spiralled into a free fall coupled with periods of uncertainty in which the country teeters close to bankruptcy, an inevitable result of trade sanctions, boycotts, and suspension of aid by the international community at large. The ordinary Burmese in the street faces rampaging inflation and falling incomes. SPDC's  (State Peace & Development Council, name of the current military junta in Myanmar) increasing trade with China and ASEAN has brought prosperity to a small number of businessmen with connections with the military and though signs of affluence and growth can be detected in the major cities of Yangon and Mandalay, the majority of the people remain impoverished with little hope of hauling themselves out of the vicious cycle of poverty. The cost of living has gone up by so much that food once considered staple to the diet are now considered as a luxury. There are families who cannot even afford rice, once the most plentiful commodity in Myanmar before the Second World War.

In the rural areas, farmers suffer from poor yields due to outdated cultivation methods and exorbitant taxes from the local civil servants who are struggling to make their ends meet. Infrastructure and amenities such as hospitals, proper sewerage and clean drinking water are particularly lacking in the rural areas, a problem made more acute by the country's poor road conditions and a non-existent communication network. 

Once boasting the highest literacy rate in Asia, Myanmar's education system now lay in tatters, fallen way behind time and unable to keep pace with modern developments. Since the 1960s and 1970s the study of English has been discouraged because the language was associated with the colonial past. In response to street demonstrations by large groups of students, the SLORC closed the nation's universities and even high schools, for varying lengths of time in 1987, 1988-91, 1994 and 1996. Funding for education is so low that only 10 percent of students in science classes can claim to have adequate equipment. At present, the universities are open for only half the year and are subjected to tight scrutiny and control by the authorities. Thousands of university students find their education frustrating and disappointing. Even if they manage to finish their courses, they face the dismal prospect of not being able to find worthwhile employment. Those who can afford a foreign education prefer to settle in their adopted homeland, leading to a serious brain-drain of the best talents.  

Human Rights Abuse

Myanmar's human rights records has long been a sore point of contention between the U.S. and E.U. and ASEAN which admits Myanmar as a full member in 1997. While the West are quick to condemn Myanmar's dismal human rights record, ASEAN continues to turn a blind eye towards the actual situation in the country under its valued 'non-intervention' policy in the domestic affairs of member states. 

In 1990 Sweden introduced a draft resolution condemning the SLORC (State, Law & Order Restoration Council, name of the military junta from 1989 - 1997) to the Third Committee of the General Assembly in New York. In 1991 the Assembly adopted four successive resolutions which call repeatedly upon SLORC to halt their brutality and disregard for human rights. The further resolutions were passed, each time by consensus, in 1992, 1993 and 1994 with no effect on SLORC's policies and governance. The UN's special Rapporteur described in a lengthy report, released in November 1996, of abuses occurring in Myanmar under the government's orders, many of which target minority groups especially. The Special Rapporteur found that arbitrary arrests and detentions continue to be imposed for the expression of dissenting political views, with citizens being arrested and imprisoned for trivial reasons. Soldiers continue to commit serious human right abuses, including extrajudicial killings and rape along the Myanmar-Thai border. Private citizens and political activists are often summarily detained and held without trial for periods ranging from weeks to months. 

Large numbers of people are seized by the military for porterage or related duties, often without the knowledge of their families. The whereabouts of those conscripted, as well as of prisoners transferred for labour or porterage duties, remains unknown. The government restricts workers' rights and uses forced labour on a widespread basis. The use of porters by the Tatmadaw - with attendant mistreatment, illness and even death for those compelled to serve - is common practice. The military force ordinary citizens (including women and children) to 'contribute' their labor on a massive scale, often under harsh working conditions, on construction projects throughout the country. 

To make way for commercial or public construction, the SLORC moved people out of cities to peripheral new settlements. Residents targeted for relocation have no option but to move. The military authorities practise widespread and forcible relocation of rural villages in ethnic minority areas in response to security fears. The practice was very common in the Kayah, Shan and Karen states where tens of thousands of villages were displaced.

The Frontier Areas

Myanmar's frontier areas in the Shan, Karen and Mon states were never totally under the central government's control in Yangon. Various armed groups had fought frequent small-scale wars with government troops with neither gaining an upper hand for many years at the terrible cost of heavy casualties from both sides. By far, the Karen National Army (KNA) is the largest armed resistance movement against the government. The military's 'scorched and burnt' policies aimed at eradicating any possible base of support to the rebels by systematically targeting and levelling villages had the detrimental effect of further ostracizing the government from the people. Occasional truces and cease-fires are another tactic employed by SPDC to bid for them for a renewed assault. Since the beginning of the conflict, more than 2 million Karen refugees are displaced from their homes and they now linger in makeshift refugee camps scattered along the Myanmar-Thai border. Myanmar troops regularly fire shells across the border into Thailand with reciprocal fire from the Thai side, another strain in both countries' uneasy relationship. 

The Golden Triangle, bordering between Myanmar, Laos and Thailand produces some 70% of the world's heroin. Poppy fields cover large hectares of land with the dense foliage providing good cover for factories producing heroin, amphetamines and other consumer drugs which soon find their way into Thailand or the Yunnan province which has the highest drug addiction rate in China. The drug trade was firmly in the hands of Shan chieftains and the ethnic Chinese Wa, remnants of the former 46th Brigade of the Kuomintang. Though the government had reiterated more than often not its anti-narcotic stance in the media, it is widely acknowledged that tacit support or even collaboration between SPDC and the drug barons in a symbiotic relationship is crucial in sustaining the narcotic production and trafficking in Myanmar which now holds the dubious reputation as the world's largest producer of heroin. Mong Yawn, a township in the eastern Shan state, is equipped with an airport, roads, hospitals and even a casino reputed to be built with drug money earned from Thailand. While Thailand accused Myanmar of flooding it with drugs, the international community remains divided on whether to continue its isolation policy towards SPDC or to work together with it to combat the problem.

Diplomatic Stalemate

After a decade of sanctions, boycotts and aid suspension, the SPDC remains the sole ruler of Myanmar, its position now stronger than ever. Aung San Suu Kyi, widely idolized in the West as an icon for democracy and freedom, continues to call openly for more embargo and sanctions on the military government, arguing that any signs of rapprochement towards the SPDC will lend legitimacy to their illegal regime. Critics of Suu Kyi lambasted her high moral and unyielding stance as counter-productive, while failing to dislodge SPDC's stranglehold on power, has impoverished many innocent civilians whose standard of living can be improved with foreign aid and investment. ASEAN's policy of 'constructive engagement' has received much flak for being too soft on the military junta and indirectly supplying them with hard cash and resources to buy military hardware to wage war against its own people. Singapore businessmen pulled out of a series of hotel projects in Yangon in embarrassment after reports leaked out that one of the local partners is the infamous drug baron Lo Hsing Han. It appears that there's no ideal clear-cut solution to deal with SPDC, neither outright isolation or engagement seems to serve any positive impact in nudging the generals from their hardline position. Though in recent years, SPDC has softened its rhetoric and clampdown on the opposition, with the release of many of NLD's leaders from prisons and detention camps, their political powers remain arbitrary and absolute and on realist terms, any political entities eager to have a stake in Myanmar's future must go to the negotiating table with SPDC on their own terms, a fact that is often ignored by NLD leaders.

Moving Ahead

The economic outlook for the country remains gloomy and uncertain. Myanmar is the one of the least developed countries in the world under the UN scale of human development and has a per capita higher only than that of Afghanistan in Asia. The country is in urgent need of humanitarian aid packages, soft loans and foreign investment in order to pre-empt a widely foreseen economic meltdown and stagnation. Trade embargos and sanctions are unlikely to be lifted unless the government is willing to take a sincere step forward in national reconciliation and recognition of the 1990 election results. In the meantime, SPDC is depending on investments from China and ASEAN to finance its cash-strapped military which eats up as high as 40% of the GDP. Gross mismanagement of the economy with exploitation of the environment by the extractive primary industries will soon plunder Myanmar of its precious natural resources. Myanmar remains a hiccup in a more constructive relationship between the European Union and ASEAN. SPDC justified its system of government on the grounds that it's the tradition of past Burmese kings. To be accepted as part of the modern world, it's time that Myanmar's rulers forsake its dynastic pretensions.