DETAILED DESCRIPTION: “A STATISTICAL APPROACH to BETTING THE HORSE RACES” (second edition) provides historical results from over 8,000 races and 23 racetracks. This book will shed new light on handicapping and the probability of winning at the racetrack and Gambling in general. Picking winners frequently does not insure going home a winner. Along with win frequency, bet efficiency must be considered to be a successful track bettor. In the beginning sections of "A Statistical Approach to Betting the Horse Races", simple probability and statistics are discussed to give the reader a basic understanding of how statistics relate to gambling. Other basics such as morning line odds, real time odds, and the para-mutual betting system are explained. Finish position, trifecta, superfecta, and pick-3 statistical results are provided in track by track easy to read hit frequency and efficiency charts. The data is based on the final real time odds with the race favorite being the "A" horse. The next most bet horse is the "B" horse and so on to the last horse in the race. Additionally, the formulas for calculating probabilities using win position data are provided and explained in the text. This guidebook does not pick horses by traditional handicapping methods, but rather looks for those bet combinations that consistently return over time more than the amount wagered. "A Statistical Approach to Betting the Horse Races" can be used alone or as a tool to improve your traditional handicapping methods.

 

 

 

 

James Ross is a retired Electrical Engineering Graduate from Texas A&M University. He spent the bulk of his career working for the National Aeronautical & Space Administration (NASA) and Department of Defense (DOD) organizations. A significant amount of experience was obtained designing tests, analyzing results, and writing test reports related to Shuttle Orbiter Maneuvering System engines, High and Low Energy Laser Systems and Precision Guided Munitions (PGM’s) such as the Pave-way Laser Guided Bomb series. Much of the test design and analysis related to these systems involved the use of probability and statistics. Frequency and efficiency parameters were always important and were usually investigated in depth. Noteworthy, the techniques and principles used to evaluate and test the above systems applies directly to gambling and handicapping the horses at the racetrack. While serving as the Facilities Division Chief at the High Energy Lasr System Test Facility located at White Sands Missile Range, James decided to take an early retirement offer and retired from Civil Service in 1993 at the grade of GM-14.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Table of Contents is shown below. As you can see, the charts are segregated in APPENDIX B by racetrack for ease of use. In all of the charts and formulas, a letter designation is used to represent how the horses lined up in the real-time odds. All of the analysis is based on the real-time odds. The “A” horse is always the real-time favorite. The “B” horse is the second best horse in the odds and so on to the “E” horse (5^th best). An ABC trifecta bet is the top three favorites bet in order. A sample is shown for each type of chart.

                                                           

TABLE OF CONTENTS                                                                             

 

FORWARD                                                                                                    

 

INTRODUCTION                                                                                         

 

STATISTICS AND THIER APPLICATION TO GAMBLING

 

SLOT MACHINE EXAMPLE                                                                      

 

STATE REGULATIONS FOR CASINOS                                                    

 

BETTING THE PARA MUTUAL SYSTEM                                                  

 

REAL TIME AND MORNING LINE ODDS                                                

 

CALCULATED PROBABILITIES FOR EXOTIC BETS                              

 

EXOTIC BET PROBABILITY EXAMPLES                                                 

 

STATISTICAL PROBABILITY THEORY                                                    

 

COMPARISON OF CALCULATED AND STATISTICAL RESULTS        

 

STATISTICAL RESULTS                                                                             

 

POSITION DATA                                                                                         

 

TRIFECTA STATISTICS AND EFFICIENCIES                                          

 

SUPERFECTA STATISTICS AND EFFICIENCIES                                    

 

PICK 3 STATISTICS AND EFFICIENCES                                                 

 

GENERAL CONCLUSIONS                                                                        

 

APPENDIX A (FORMULAS REVISITED)                                                   

 

APPENDIX B (CHART DATA BY RACETRACK)                                       pages 65 thru 175

 

ALBUQUERQUE CHARTS (position & trifecta)                                                                          

 

AQUEDUCT CHARTS (position & trifecta)                                                                                  

 

BAY MEADOWS CHARTS (position, tri, supr, & pick-3)                                                                          

 

BEULAH CHARTS (position & trifecta)                                                                                        

 

CALDER CHARTS (position, tri, supr & pick-3)                                                                                        

 

CHURCHILL CHARTS (position, trifecta & superfecta)                                                                                 

 

DELAWARE CHARTS (position & trifecta)                                                                                  

 

DEL MAR CHARTS (position & trifecta)                                                                                      

 

EVANGELINE CHARTS (position, trifecta & superfecta)                                                                              

 

FAIR GROUNDS CHARTS (position, trifecta & superfecta)                                                                          

 

GOLDEN GATE CHARTS (position, tri, supr & pick-3)                                                                            

 

HOLLYWOOD CHARTS (position, tri, supr & pick-3)                                                                             

 

LAUREL CHARTS (position & trifecta)                                                                                        

 

LONE STAR CHARTS (position, trifecta & superfecta)                                                                                  

 

LOUISIANA DOWNS CHARTS (position & trifecta)                                                                  

 

MOUNTAINEER CHARTS (position & trifecta)                                                                          

 

PENN NATIONAL CHARTS (position, trifecta & superfecta)                                                                       

 

PHILADELPHIA CHARTS (position & trifecta)                                                                           

 

RUIDOSO CHARTS (position & trifecta)                                                                                     

 

SANTA ANITA CHARTS (position, tri, supr & pick-3)                                                                             

 

SARATOGA CHARTS (position & trifecta)                                                                                  

 

SUNLAND PARK CHARTS (position, trifecta & superfecta)                                                                         

 

TURF PARADISE CHARTS (position & trifecta)                                                                         

 

REFERENCES                                                                                                page 176

 

 

 

SAMPLE CHARTS FOLLOW: Note: for each racetrack there are two position charts. One provides win, place, and show percentages for the "A" thru "E" horses. The other provides win percentages for the "A thru C" horses for the first eight races in the program. The trifecta and superfecta charts (8 for each) provide frequency and efficiency data. The pick-3 charts (12) also provide frequency and efficiency results. In paperback, charts are grayscale