[pg 887, Glowing Embers, tFoH]
'He [Asmodean] pulled open a small door, intending to find his way to the pantry. There should be some decent wine. One step, and he stopped, the blood draining from his face. "You? No!" The word still hung in the air when death took him.'
Who killed Asmodean? This is one of the most controversial points in the Wheel of Time. Robert Jordan has said that we have already met the killer when Asmodean dies, and that we have sufficient information to work out the killer. He has said: 'It should have been obvious from the moment he died'
I will look at each possible suspect and consider points for or against them.
Note on word usage:
There is some argument as to the correct word for what the Dark One does to put Forsaken into new bodies. Throughout this theory I will refer to it as reincarnation.
Evidence
Suspects: Any Forsaken, Moiraine
Moiraine:
Moiraine is dead, or so Asmodean believes. His reaction fits perfectly with stepping into a room and finding himself face to face with someone he believes dead. However it is difficult to account for Moiraine's presence here. Last the reader saw, she vanished through the redstone gate with Lanfear. The gate was destroyed and Lan's bond was broken. Moiraine appears to be either dead or trapped in the land of the Finns. It has been proposed that she survived and escaped from there by asking the Finns to send her back as one of her three wishes. This seems unlikely, but it is possible.
However what about Moiraine's motive? Why would she want Asmodean dead? Well she knows his true identity:
[Moiraine's letter to Rand - pg 831, Fading Words, tFoH]
'Lastly be wary too of Master Jasin Natael [Asmodean]. I [Moiraine] cannot approve wholly, but I understand. Perhaps it was the only way. Yet be careful of him. He is the same man now that he always was. Remember that always'
This is a clear indication that Moiraine knows about Asmodean. However if this is the case, she may well have known about him for months as she often uses the One Power to overhear conversations. This seems to be the most likely method for her discovering Asmodean's identity. If this is so, then she has had plenty of time to kill Asmodean previously. Why wait until now to do it? Indeed, her letter says that she understands Rand's need for Asmodean. Therefore I cannot see that she would deliberately seek him out and kill him. The only plausible method for Moiraine to be the killer is that she escaped from the Finns and does not want Rand to know she is alive - enough so, that when Asmodean finds her by accident she kills him despite knowing that Rand needs his teachings. I find this to be very, very, improbable.
Forsaken
"Myself, I think Lews Therin killed them [Asmodean, Lanfear, and Moghedien]. There are rumours out of Cairhien about Lanfear dying at Lews Therin's hands the same day he killed Rahvin."
"So many of us has died confronting him...And Lanfear and Asmodean, whatever you believe. Possibly Moghedien."
'"Asmodean and Lanfear are dead, and I am sure Moghedien must be, too." She was surprised to hear her own voice, hoarse and unsteady.'
All the quotes come from conversations between Graendal and Sammael. I accept that they are playing with each others minds and that Graendal has a reason to want Sammael to think that Rand killed Asmodean.
However with regard to the last quote: 'She was surprised to hear her own voice, hoarse and unsteady.' That she is surprised shows that she hasn't purposely made her voice like that. Her voice is reflecting here her true emotions. Why is she feeling like this? She is terrified of dying. She repeats often that she intends to live forever and not be killed by Rand. This is what lies behind her attempts to get Sammael to attack Rand. She wants Rand removed, but the Dark One has ordered the Forsaken not to kill Rand. She is trying to get Rand removed and have Sammael take the blame. So her voice is hoarse and unsteady with fear in this case. She is talking about dead Forsaken. It follows that she does believe that Rand killed them, and thus she cannot have killed Asmodean.
It is worth noting that Graendal seems to be the 1st or 2nd most popular choice for killing Asmodean. However all 'Graendal did it' theories that I have seen were based on a process of elimination. This does not fit with Robert Jordan's comments about it being obvious - He thought a tedious process of elimination obvious? (especially when some of the suspects are only unlikely, not eliminated) Also, in my opinion none of these theories gave sufficient evidence to eliminate Lanfear. Last, but not least, is the evidence from the quotes I have given above against Graendal being the killer.
There are clear indications that Moiraine is still alive. - Min says that Moiraine dying was the only time her viewings had been wrong. Clearly she must have had a viewing which said Moiraine wouldn't die soon. Egwene Dreams of Thom reaching into a fire to bring out the blue stone that used to be on Moiraine's head. This obviously represents Thom rescuing Moiraine from some danger. - If Moiraine is still alive then Lanfear must have died. It seems likely that Cyndane, who appears with Moghedien in PoD, is the reincarnation of Lanfear. (This will be assumed as true for the rest of the theory)
Well Cyndane doesn't appear until PoD, so she couldn't have killed Asmodean. -Or does she? When we see her in PoD, an interesting thing happens: 'Suddenly Cyndane's big eyes opened even wider, and she gasped, shuddering... And then she [Moghedien] gave a start and shivered, biting her lip.' [pg 279, New Alliances, PoD]. Compare this to: 'Moghedien gasped at the sudden feel of fingers stroking her mind, palping her soul.' [pg 537, The First Cup, aCoS] It appears that Cyndane is in a Mindtrap also. When Moghedien first meets Moridin: 'Her [Moghedien's] eyes fixed on the small cage of gold wire and blood-red crystal that he drew out dangling on a cord. She thought vaguely that he tucked another just like it back in, but she had eyes only for her own.' [pg 463, Mindtrap, aCoS] Moridin has a second Mindtrap. Since we later see Moghedien working with Cyndane, it seems logical that Cyndane is the one in Moridin's other Mindtrap. Thus the existence of Cyndane, like Moridin, dates to sometime before this part of aCoS. Like Moridin also it is again impossible to know when she was reincarnated. It has been argued that it she had come back sooner we would have seen her. But she has been around for a full book before we actually meet her. (from aCoS where Moghedien sees the Mindtrap to PoD where we see her working with Moghedien) She may easily have been around longer, but we haven't seen her, because she wasn't relevant in the plot until later.
The most common argument against Lanfear/Cyndane is that she couldn't have killed Asmodean because of the length of time it takes the Dark One to reincarnate people:
Aginor and Balthamel: tEotW --> prologue of LoC
Ishamael: tDR --> aCoS (However we have noted he might well have come back long before this)
Cyndane: tFoH --> PoD (We have noted she was back (possibly long) before we see Moridin in aCoS)
The argument says that the Dark One take several books to reincarnate each person, and therefore there is no way Lanfear could have killed Asmodean the same day as she died.
This argument would be more believable if the time difference was the same. Say if the Dark One always took one year to reincarnate someone. However the difference in time between end of tEotW and start of LoC is much bigger (approx 10x) than the difference between the end of tFoH and the middle of aCoS.
From what we have worked out, it seems quite possible that they may all have been reincarnated at approximately the same time. Thus it seems more likely that the Dark One has suddenly obtained the ability to reincarnate his Forsaken. This seems a lot more likely as the seals are weakening. The seals may have weakened to the point where the Dark One can reach out from his prison enough to resurrect the dead. After all he is the Lord of the Grave.
The 'there wasn't time' case is still often argued from here on. They Dark One has to obtain a new body and then do whatever it is that He does to put the soul into the body. What many people tend to overlook is that the Dark One has a supply of bodies available waiting at Shayol Ghul - Demandred comments on those prisoners who will be used to make the Myrrdraal's swords. Even if there were no bodies available, how long would it take for Shadar Haran or Moridin to kidnap a woman?
It is still argued that it must take the Dark One a long time to place the soul in the body. Why??? On the contrary, when Moghedien is fitted with a mindtrap it takes only a matter of minutes to do. Oscan'gar when reflecting on death, does not think "and the long wait as the Great Lord took days to put my soul into a body was unbearable". He whinges about everything else (well he does!), surely if there had been any time delay he would have mentioned it? The Dark One had most of a day to find a body and reincarnate Lanfear. It could have been done easily in the time.
"But there still wasn't time, because then Lanfear had to be mindtrapped and lectured by Moridin" Why would the Dark One mindtrap Lanfear? Ishamael/Moridin wasn't mindtrapped. Aginor and Balthamel weren't mindtrapped. Moghedien was mindtrapped because she failed miserably. She was captured by her enemies and greatly increased the Aes Sedai's channelling knowledge. The Dark One had to send someone to rescue her. Lanfear on the other hand has done nothing bad. - "She died" you say? But so did the others and they weren't mindtrapped. She hasn't disobeyed orders - his order not to kill Rand wasn't until later. I conclude that there was no reason for the Dark One to mindtrap Lanfear, and so, he didn't. (Yes I know Cyndane is mindtrapped, I shall explain later) So assume there was no mindtrap placed on her and no lecture given. -Although the Dark One would have almost certainly have ordered her to stay away from Rand and his friends. This could have easily been done in the available time.
So it is possible that Lanfear could have been there at the murder scene. What makes us think it was Lanfear?
'He [Asmodean] was hardly sorry Lanfear was dead. Rahvin either, but Lanfear especially, for what she had done to him... he pulled open a small door, intending to find his way to the pantry. There should be some decent wine. One step, and he stopped, the blood draining from his face. "You? No!" The word still hung in the air when death took him.'
Just before he dies Asmodean is thinking about how happy he is that Lanfear is dead. He then walks through a door and acts like he has seen the living dead. This is a pretty big clue that Lanfear is a likely suspect.
Indeed if we knew nothing about the future books we would probably think that it was Lanfear because of this hint. This leads us to think that Lanfear must have somehow come back from the dead and killed Asmodean. But how? Maybe we will find out in the next book. Sure enough... prologue of LoC (the very first chapter!) we see that the Dark One has reincarnated two other Forsaken, and we say "Ah! So that's how she did it!". This is what I think that Robert Jordan wants us to believe and that this is what he means by the comments he has made - that it should have been obvious etc.
Also Lanfear is the only Forsaken that knows Asmodean is significantly reduced in the One Power. (she has a shield on him) The other Forsaken believe that he is still as strong as he was - if they attack him then there would be an equal chance of them dying. In addition to this, Lanfear knows where to find Asmodean - she can sense her inverted weave which is on him. With anyone else, you would have to believe that it was chance encounter.
There are clearly several bits of evidence which point to Lanfear. The only thing against her is her alibi, which we have shown as not being air-tight. Finally we come to her motive. Why would she kill Asmodean - after all she helped Rand to capture him? In Rhuidean she said "We can destroy all of them [the Forsaken], even Asmodean, once he has taught you all you need to know." Perhaps she has decided that Asmodean has taught Rand enough and she doesn't want Rand to be too powerful. This is unlikely - if this is the motive she could have killed Asmodean anytime in the last few months. More likely is that she is doing this to be spiteful to Rand. She will still be immensely angry at him, but the Dark One will have ordered her not to touch Rand or his friends. She still wants to get back at Rand but she cannot kill Rand, as the Dark One has ordered her not to. She kills Asmodean, Rand's tutor, instead.
Can the Dark One can talk to the dead without actually reincarnating them? This seems reasonably likely, if he can bring them back to life surely he can do a little thing like talking to them. Indeed this explains Demandred's comment: 'He was never sure how much the Great Lord knew of the world. He [Demandred] had been as startled by ignorance as knowledge." and "Another point pricked him [Demandred]. The Great Lord already knew how Rahvin had died. And seemed to know more of Asmodean than he." If the Dark One can speak to the dead then he can find out information. If Lanfear killed Asmodean then Asmodean would be more than a little angry at her. If the Dark One was then to talk to Asmodean after he died, Asmodean would be able to tell the Dark One things which would make Lanfear a very unpopular person with him. Such as: "With those [the mega sa'angreal], together we can displace the Great Lord of the Dark himself. We can, Lews Therin! Together." [pg 993, The Traps of Rhuidean, tSR] Once Asmodean told the Dark One that, I would imagine Lanfear would be in a Mindtrap in very short order. This explains the mindtrap. And also the name, Cyndane - 'Last Chance'.
Summarising Lanfear's possible activities:
Tries to kill Rand, but is killed by Moiraine. The Dark One reincarnates her and gives some orders. She finds that Rand has taken Caemlyn and waits until Asmodean is alone and kills him out of spite. The Dark One is displeased with what Asmodean tells him, and has her mindtrapped.
This is supported by all the known facts.
Lanfear is the only likely killer. At best the others are only unsupported possibilities. I therefore conclude that it was Lanfear.