Magid of Boston - Prediction about World War III

Introduction
1. Experience of World WAR II
2. Terrorism and Methods of Fighting It
3. The Battleground
4. Problem of Russia
5. Prediction of Movement of World WAR III

Editors: Steven Siegel and Dan Smolens

Boston
2002

PREDICTION ABOUT WORLD WAR III

Introduction

In March of 2001 I wrote an article the text of which appears below.
See Ilya Magid, "Variation of the Jewish Theme" (Issue I), beginning 2001:

Big trouble happened in America on 09/11/01. Terrorists destroyed two buildings of the World Trade Center in New York City and destroyed part of the Pentagon. I was surprised at my prediction.

President Bush announced the beginning of World War III against terrorists. I will write about my prediction about World War III.

1. Experience of World War II
(Russian View)

The Soviet Union was a dictatorship. There was censorship. Before World War II newspapers told us that England and France wanted to direct Germany (fascists) on the east against the Soviet Union.

I asked many Soviet veterans of WWII: "When did WWII begin?" They answered me; "It began in 1941on June 21. One of them told me, "Germany attacked Poland; the Soviet Union liberated in series West Ukraine and Byelorussia, Moldova (part of Romania) and the Baltic States (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia). Also they knew about the Finland Company (1940), when the Soviet Union captured the Coral isthmus of Finland, because it was very close to city of Leningrad.

At the time the fascists, defeated France, and England entered the War, nobody told me the real situation.

Really the Soviet Union announced an agreement with Germany about not attacking each other (August 1939). World War II began in September 1939, when England and France declared war when Germany attacked Poland. England and France had an agreement with Poland about mutual aid. The Soviet Union wanted to sit and observe as the other countries made war. When those countries would fall the Soviet Union would advance the communist idea in other countries.

England and France had a more principal position than the Soviet Union. England and France were democratic countries. They had to explain their position to their people. Their moral values were close to the biblical (Torah's) values. The Soviet Government was not required to explain anything to their people. In the Soviet Union nobody could object to an explanation of any position of the Soviet Government.

From September 1939 Germany conquered almost all of Europe (including France) and in June 1941 Germany attacked the Soviet Union.

This war between the Soviet Union and Germany was a very deadly war compared to other wars for the period of World WWII. (The Soviet Union lost 20 million people in that war.)

In the time of War II in the Soviet rear we knew only from a bulletin of the Soviet Information Bureau about the war. The loudspeakers in the streets reproduced that bulletin and it was repeated in the newspapers. Each day they changed that bulletin. That bulletin was divided into two parts. What was success in the rear and the situation on the fighting front.

Reports about success in the rear were: plant where director 'X' improved his production, for exempla, 20%, etc. [All plants worked for the war effort.]

Reports about the situation on the front in the first period of the war were: After bitter fighting our troops left the town (city) 'X'. [We know right now that Germans surrounded whole armies; Germany had 5 million captured Soviet soldiers.] When the Soviet Army began to advance from Moscow, they began to write about liberated towns near Moscow. I was surprised how close the Germans approached Moscow. Later they announced that Soviet troops surrounded the German troops and liberated the towns from Germany, and Moscow would be saluted in their honor the troops First (Second, …) Byelorussian (Ukrainian, …) front 124 (224, ….) gunnery. They wrote only about the results of the operation. But I could not often read bulletins; because I worked 12 hours a day (one hour was dinner).

The Soviet people wondered why America and Great Britain did not open the Second Front for a very long time. But few knew that America and England destroyed the troops from Germany and Italy in North Africa. They freed Italy. For America, Japan also was a battleground. They freed territories occupied by Japan (Burma, Indochina, Philippines, Indonesia, etc.)

American help to the Soviet Union under a Lend-Lease program was not publicized. It is very interesting that the Soviet people in World War II saw Hitler and his henchmen only in cartoons, but never as real people in the newspapers.

A quotation from the encyclopedia dictionary of 1953 in the article 'World War II' read: "In the time of World War II, when Hitler's Germany began the war against the Soviet Union, the England-France-America block did not only unite with Hitler's Germany, but the opposite, it also forced a coalition with the USSR against Hitler's Germany."

"WW II was brought to conclusion in a historical global victory when the Soviet Union was victorious against a coalition of the Fascist states."

"The USSR, which saved humanity from servitude, under the fascist aggressor, was the biggest contributor as it advanced the fight for peace."

2. Terrorism and Methods of Fighting against It

The catastrophic events of September 11, 2001, are obvious acts of terrorism. But to give a definition of terrorism is not simple. The World is in constant change. Both sides of the conflict use the vituperative word 'terrorism'. In a dictatorship, what is terrorism is defined by the government's point of view. People do not know another point of view.

In democratic countries it is very important how much money one side of the conflict gives to the mass media to support their point of view. There is a good decision when the international court has to decide the problem of the conflict. Pirke Avot speaks, chapter 1, "When the litigants stand before a Judge he regards them both as guilty, but when they leave, having accepted the judgment, he regards them both as guiltless.

For terrorists that way is impossible.

Usually dictatorships supported terrorism. Terrorists helped their political objectives to be carried out. All dictatorships have a similar nature. A good example is the former Soviet Union. Their education and propaganda prepared soldiers for the communist idea of acting like robots ('canons meat'), so they gave good technical education. Later the government wanted to save the bureaucracy ('nomenclature'). What destroyed dictatorship? There were many reasons. I think that foreign radio transmission into the Soviet Union was very important.

The West transmitted day and night: Voice of America, BBC, German's radio, Free Europe radio. They transmitted on 25, 31, 41, 49 frequencies. Canada, Sweden and Israel transmitted at certain times.

In the Soviet time short wave wireless equipment was produced only in the range of 25-49 meters. Really the West transmitted also on 13, 16, 19 ranges. Some people built those ranges illegally into their short wave wireless. It gave forbidden information to the Soviet people. For me it is strange: why do the American people not buy short wave wireless radios?

The Soviet Government broadcast special radio noise to block foreign radio frequencies (glushilka) so Soviet people could not hear that information. I think there were many radio transmitters and members of the KGB who designed the blocking of those frequencies. They could not use powerful radio transmitters to create noise, because the powerful radio transmitters would have destroyed the effectiveness of the permitted frequencies. They had to use many small radio transmitters to create noise. The members of the KGB worked around the clock in three shifts. I think that was more expensive than building the Berlin wall and controlling it.

That forbidden information that the Soviet people heard, was one of the reason for the collapse of the Soviet Union. We have to act the same way against the dictatorship supporting terrorism. Right now we have new possibilities for spreading information: Internet, Satellite TV, cell phones; and we can use the traditional radio transmitters.

The structure of society in the Soviet Union and in the new dictatorship is different. In the Soviet Union the income of the people differed no more then 1/10 compared to the income of the leaders. Private property was not big. More important was whether you would be connected with the bureaucracy or not. The bureaucracy had government dachas, government cars, special medicine, and special shops for them. If the member of bureaucracy did not agree with the politics of the communist party he could go to prison or in the better case he would use up all his benefits and have a big problem to receive another job.

Right now new dictatorships often have a capitalist, not socialist, system. There are rich elite and plebeians. The elite dominated the plebeians.

In the Soviet time foreign radio transmitters had good editorial offices abroad. Those offices included Soviet dissidents. The forbidden literature was secretly sent to the West and it was transmitted back to the Soviet people.

We have to give the same possibility for all dissidents in new dictatorship- to inform their people about their ideas.

The problem of terrorism is a constant problem for people. If maybe a small percent do not agree with something they could become terrorists. The development of science has permitted the perpetration of great destruction to a community.

3. The Battleground

(First Stage)

In the first stage the battleground will be Afghanistan, the central states formerly the Soviet Union and Russia

I gave some quotation from the Encyclopedia Americana (2001) and Britannica (1995).

3.1 Afghanistan

Capital: Kabul
Official languages: Pashto, Dari (Persian)
Official religion: Islam
Area: 251,825 square miles
Population (1995): 18.129,000
Ethnic composition (early 1990):
   Pushtun-38%
   Tadzhik-25%
    Hazara-18%
    Uzbec-6%
Religious affiliation (1990):
    Sunni Muslim-84%
    Shu Muslim-16%

Central Asia States Formerly the Soviet Union

3.2 Kazakhstan

Capital: Almaty
Official language: Kazakhs
Official religion: none
Area: 1,047,200
Population: 16,783,100
Ethnic composition:
   Kazakh-41.1%
   Russian-37.3%
   Ukrainian-5.3%
   German-5.0%
Religious affiliation:
   Believers are predominantly Sunni Muslims
   Christian minority (Russian, etc)

3.3 Kyrgyzstan

Capital: Bishkek
Official language: Kyrgyz, Russian (right now I heard on TV that Russian Language will be only a second language).
Official religion: none
Area: 76,600
Population: 4,483,000
Ethnic composition (1989)
   Kirgiz-52.4%
   Russian-21.5%
   Uzbeck-12.9%
Religious affiliation:
   Believers are predominantly Sunni Muslims
   Christian (minority).

3.4. Tajikistan

Capital: Dushanbe
Official language: Tajik
Official religious: none
Area: 55,300
Population (1995): 5,832,000
Ethnic composition:
   Tajik-63. 8%
   Usbeck-24.0%
   Russian-6.5 %
Religious affiliation:
(do no know)

3.5. Turkmenistan

Capital: Ashgabat
Official Language: Turkmen
Official religious: none
Area: 188,500
Population (1995): 4,081,000
Ethnic composition:
   Turkmen-73.3%
   Russian-9.8%
   Uzbek- 9.0%
Religious affiliation:
   Believers are predominantly Sunny Muslim (Suff)

3.6. Uzbekistan

Capital: Tashkent
Official language: Uzbek
Official religious: none
Area: 447,000
Population (1995): 22,889,000
Ethnic composition:
   Uzbek-70.0%
   Russian-7.7%
   Tajik-4.8%
Religious affiliation (1993):
   Believers are predominantly Sunni Muslim (Hanaffyah)

3.7. Russian Federation

'Encyclopedia Americana' 24:28-30a
A little over 80% of the totals were ethnic Russian and remaining 20% included more than 80 other ethnic groups, the most numerous of which were Ukrainians, Tatars, Chuvash, Bashkirs and Mordvinians. More then 30 ethnic groups, of varied ancestry, share the Islamic religion and live in the Northern and Central Caucasian region. Some 24 million Russians live in other republics of the former USSR, and this has been a source of friction between the federations and neighboring states dominated by other groups, especially Ukraine, Mordova, the Baltic States, and Central Asian republics.

Capital: Moscow
Official language: Russian
Official religion: none
Area 6,591,100
Population 148,000,000
Ethnic composition:
   Russian 85.0 %
   Tatars 3.9 %
   Ukrainians 2.4 %
   Chuvash 1.2 %
   Bashkirs 1.0 %
   Mordovian 0.7 %
   Byelorussia 0.7%
Major Religions:
   Russian Orthodox Church
   Islam (predominantly Sunni)
   Judaism
   Buddhism

Russian Autonomous Republics

Russia has 16 autonomous republics and 10 national regions. I will show only some autonomous republics.

3.7.1 Bashkortostan

Capital: Ufa
Official language: Russian
Official religious: none
Area: 55,400
Population: 3,983,300
Ethnic composition:
   Russian
   Tatar
   Bashkir
   Chuvash
   Mari

3.7.2 Tatarstan

Capital: Kasan
Official language:
Official religion:
Area: 26,300
Population 3,754,000
Ethnic composition:
   Tatar 49 % (Islam)
   Russian 43 %

Tatar language is a member of the Turkish language group.
Following the break up of the Soviet Union in 1991, the republic declared its independence from the Russian federation, but this claim was not immediately recognized.

3.7.3 Chuvashiya

Capital: Cheboksary
Official language:
Official religion: many adopted the Russian Orthodox Christianity religion
Area: 7,000
Population (1990): 1,340,000
Ethnic composition:
   Chuvash 70%
   Russian 26 %

3.7.4 Udmurtiya

Capital: Izhevsk
Official language:
Area: 16,250
Population 1,619,000
Ethnic composition:
   Russian
   Udmurts
   Tatars
   Mary

3.7.5 Dagestan

Capital: Mahachkala
Official language:
Area 19,400
Population: 1,854,200
Ethnic composition:
   Avar
   Russian
   Dargin
   Kupyk
   Lezgin (they comprise 80 % of the population)

3.7.6 Buryatiya

Capital: Ulun-Ude
Official language: mongolic language (Buryat)
Official religion:
Area: 135,000
Population (1992): 1,059,000
Ethnic composition:
     Roughly half of the population consists indigenous Burats
Religious affiliation:
     Buddhist

3.7.7 Mordvinia

Capital: Saransk
Area: 10,100
Population (1995): 959,000
Ethnic composition: Russian who comprised more then 3/5 of the population

3.7.8 Checheny-Ingushetia

Capital: Grosni
Area: 7,400
Population of Chechen: 862,000
Population of Ingushetia: 460,000
Religious affiliation: Muslim
On Nov 2, 1991 Chechen nationalist Drhokhar Dudayev declared independence for Chechnya. Russian ignored the declaration for three years.

3.8. Iraq

Capital: Baghdad
Official language: Arabic
Official religion: Islam
Area: 167,975
Population (1995): 20,413,000
Ethnic composition (1983):
     Arab-77,1%
     Kurd-19,0%
     Azerbaijany-1.7%
     Assyrian-0.8%
     Religious affiliation (1994): Shri Muslim 62,5%
     Sunni Muslim 34,5%
     (Arab Sunnites, Kurdish Sunnites)
     Christian 2,7%

  ·The Kurds who speak a language related to Farsi (Persian) live in the north and northeast    Iraq. Iraq have Sprite majority but the Arab Sunnites dominate the government.

4. Problem of Russia

4.1 The Soviet Union is Underground Russia.

The dictatorship was in the Soviet Union. All belonged to the Government. Centralized economy was ruled from Moscow. Who and for whom products were produced was planned there. A constant government price was decided in Moscow. All the time some products were in shortage.

The chief officials of the republic had been member of the central committee of the communist party. The first secretary was the representative of this native republic, and the second secretary of the central committee was Russian.

In the Soviet time the Russian political philosophy was to russify the native republics and the native autonomous republics.

It is very interesting, that in the Soviet time almost all national republics and national autonomous republics used the Cyrillic (Russian) alphabet for their national languages. That concerned the Muslims and other group.

In the Soviet time the national religion was persecuted in both the national republics and national autonomous republics.

They all had a bad experience with the Russian dictatorship.
In the Soviet Union in the beginning of the 1980s, I had a conversation with one person and I wrote a story, the text of which appears below.

See "Short and not so Short Stories about Life in the Soviet Union" by Ilya Magid, Boston 1

4.2 Russia and the Independent States
(Breakup of the Soviet Union)

In 1991 the Soviet Union collapsed. Instead there became an organization of Russia and 14 other independent states. Russia became the successor to the former Soviet Union.

4.2.1 Independent States

The independent states go different ways according to their traditions. All independent states entered the U.N.

I think when the Central Asian (Muslim) republics become independent they will change their alphabet to Arabic. That change would permit them to connect to the centuries old Muslim culture.

4.2.2 Russia and its Problems

After the collapse of the former Soviet Union, Russia has many problems. The economic connection with the last Soviet republics was destroyed. That was the process of transition from Socialism to Capitalism, maybe only with elements of capitalism (free price of products, partly privatization in the economy, etc.) Another problem is that many Russians from the independent states are returning to Russia.

The Russian nationalism has important meaning. It wants to save its status as a Global power. The military potential wants to be powerful, but its resources have decreased.

The Soviet Union had great scientific potential. The big potential remained in Russia, but many specialists emigrated from Russia to many other countries.

Russia also has complicated relationships with the Autonomous republics. In some Russian autonomous republics, the majority of the population is Russian. But the minority nationalities there did not have a homeland as the Russians did. Those nationalities will fight for their independence.

I heard on TV, that one deputy from Duma said, "It is necessary to forbid a change of the Cyrillic alphabet in the autonomous republics".

Those autonomous republics are a time bomb (together with the problem of the Caucasus).

All Muslim republics of the former Soviet Union and Muslim autonomous republics of Russia will support the Chechens secretly with force and money.

Russian nationalism did not promise to give freedom to their autonomous republics, as Britain gave to their colonies. Russia cannot go to compromise.

Another deputy of Duma said, "It is good that America quickly defeated the Tallibs in Afghanistan. They spared the lives of Russian soldiers [he is dreaming right now that Russia will rule there.]

My conclusion: the disruption of Russia will continue.

[I wrote my prediction of the movement of world War III in October 2001. After that I wrote another chapter supporting my point of view. Volunteers, Steven Siegel and Dan Smollens, corrected my writing.]