Chaos Theory
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  • Mandelbrot Set
    Mandelbrot Set


    How can the weather reporter win?

    One of the earliest pioneers of chaos theory was Edward Lorenz. Lorenz was a meteorologist. In 1960, Lorenz began a project to simulate weather patterns on a computer system called the Royal McBee. The computer was incapable of creating complex patterns due to a lack of memory power (another reason that the main discoveries of chaos were not made until last century), however it was able to show the interaction between large meteorological events such as tornadoes, hurricanes, or easterly and westerly winds. Lorenz managed to use computer printouts to analyse a variety of factors represented by a number. On the emergence of a pattern, Lorenz was able to start predicting with reasonable accuracy what was going to happen next.

    During an experiment, Lorenz had completed a run of numbers in a previous experiment, and wanted to recreate the pattern. Using a printout, he entered a selection of variables into the computer waited for the simulation to proceed the same as it had before. However, the pattern diverged from the previous run, and after a few months (of simulated time), the pattern had altered completely.

    Lorenz discovered why this had happened even though he had entered seemingly identical variables. When he had entered the numbers to recreate the old scenario, his printout had provided him with the numbers to three decimal places. This was in fact different to the computer's internal memory, which had used numbers to six decimal places. Although this was a small deviation, it resulted in a totally divergent weather pattern in just a few months. This discovery is consistent with the basis of chaos theory.

    As a result, the answer to the question "How can the weather reporter win?" at the present moment is that he can not win. Creating a way of successfully predicting the weather over a long period of time is impossible. It will remain impossible until a single consciousness exists that is capable of monitoring all particles everywhere and foreseeing exactly how they will behave. Until then, the weather will remain unpredictable.

    Here is an idea that shows the effects of chaos on weather:

    "A butterfly flapping its wings in Hong Kong will create a thunderstorm in New York a month later".

    ...The Ripple Effect...

    This famous saying demonstrates the idea that minor effects such as air movement around wings can cause great changes caused by compounding over time. Here is another good demonstration of chaos theory:
    "For want of a nail, the shoe was lost;
    For want of a shoe, the horse was lost;
    For want of a horse, the rider was lost;
    For want of a rider, the battle was lost;
    For want of a battle, the kingdom was lost!"
    From what you read in that quote, you can see how easily the small changes early on can cause such a great change after time. This is known as the ripple effect, and is probably the concept that best defines chaos.

    These same chaotic traits apply to math. Certain sets of equations, for example, can be repeated many times, creating images called fractals.

    Next: What is a Fractal?


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