How can the weather reporter win?
One of the earliest pioneers of chaos theory was Edward Lorenz. Lorenz was a meteorologist.
In 1960, Lorenz began a project to simulate weather patterns on a computer system called the
Royal McBee. The computer was incapable of creating complex patterns due to a lack of memory
power (another reason that the main discoveries of chaos were not made until last century),
however it was able to show the interaction between large meteorological events such as
tornadoes, hurricanes, or easterly and westerly winds. Lorenz managed to use computer printouts
to analyse a variety of factors represented by a number. On the emergence of a pattern, Lorenz
was able to start predicting with reasonable accuracy what was going to happen next.
During an experiment, Lorenz had completed a run of numbers in a previous experiment, and wanted
to recreate the pattern. Using a printout, he entered a selection of variables into the computer
waited for the simulation to proceed the same as it had before. However, the pattern diverged
from the previous run, and after a few months (of simulated time), the pattern had altered
completely.
Lorenz discovered why this had happened even though he had entered seemingly identical variables.
When he had entered the numbers to recreate the old scenario, his printout had provided him with
the numbers to three decimal places. This was in fact different to the computer's internal
memory, which had used numbers to six decimal places. Although this was a small deviation,
it resulted in a totally divergent weather pattern in just a few months. This discovery is
consistent with the basis of chaos theory.
As a result, the answer to the question "How can the weather reporter win?" at the present moment
is that he can not win. Creating a way of successfully predicting the weather over a long period
of time is impossible. It will remain impossible until a single consciousness exists that is
capable of monitoring all particles everywhere and foreseeing exactly how they will behave. Until
then, the weather will remain unpredictable.
Here is an idea that shows the effects of chaos on weather:
"A butterfly flapping its wings in Hong Kong will create a thunderstorm in New
York a month later".
...The Ripple Effect...
This famous saying demonstrates the idea that minor effects such as air movement around wings
can cause great changes caused by compounding over time. Here is another good demonstration of
chaos theory:
"For want of a nail, the shoe was lost;
For want of a shoe, the horse was lost;
For want of a horse, the rider was lost;
For want of a rider, the battle was lost;
For want of a battle, the kingdom was lost!"
From what you read in that quote, you can see how easily the small changes early on can cause
such a great change after time. This is known as the ripple effect, and is probably the concept
that best defines chaos.
These same chaotic traits apply to math. Certain sets of equations, for example, can be repeated
many times, creating images called fractals.
Next: What is a Fractal?
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