Why have problems between Israel and Lebanon gone on for so long? Why is it so difficult to resolve the issues?

THE STATED AGENDA

1 Occupation of the Cheba'a farms area by the Israeli army. The UN considered this area to be Syrian, not Lebanese, territory so did not insist on Israel's withdrawal when Israel pulled out of south Lebanon. However, Lebanese consider part of the area to be Lebanese and the UN demarcation was disputed when it was made. Hezbollah states the continuing occupation of this part of Lebanon as its reason for continuing attacks against Israel.

2 Up to 1982, PLO attacks on Israel from south Lebanon caused Israeli attacks on/invasions of Lebanon. In recent years, Hezbollahi rocket attacks on Israel have provoked several massive Israeli bombardments, hostage-taking and detention of cilvilians, destruction of infrastructure, collective punishment and closing off of entire villages. The rocket attacks have been an irritant to Israel so may have been the final straw that caused the gross over-reaction we are seeing today.

3 Lebanese civilian hostages held for years in Israeli jails, in contravention of the Geneva Conventions (which state that hostages or prisoners of war must not be moved across borders: these people were abducted in Lebanon and moved to Israel). Amnesty International has documented many of these cases, where it has been possible to get information about them.

4 Two Israeli soldiers captured by Hezbollah last week. These were captured in Israel so Hezbollah is in contravention of the Geneva Conventions for the same reason as Israel (above) for having moved its hostages into Lebanon and then possibly into Syria and/or Iran. However, Hezbollah is not a signatory to the Conventions, not being a nation state so it's difficult to know whether they can be in contravention of the Conventions. However, Lebanon is a signatory so perhaps is legally responsible. I don't know, I'm not an international lawyer. Morally, it's perfectly clear that if what Israel has done with its hostages is wrong, then Hezbollah, having done the same thing, is equally wrong. Or is equally right if you believe in the barbaric practice of taking innocent civilians hostage.

All of which look simple enough to solve by discussion, negotiation and compromise.

THE HIDDEN AGENDA

1 The five permanent members of the UN Security Council - America, Britain, France, Russia and China - all have very lucrative arms industries, which are the main suppliers of arms to all sides in Middle East conflicts. Not mentioned much in the international press or by politicians. People who make lots of loot out of selling arms are not likely to broker ceasefires or peace treaties. Watch for delaying tactics, watch for vetos. Both have already sprung into action this week.

2 The very lucrative drugs industry based on hashish grown in Lebanon's Beqa'a Valley. This officially no longer exists because officially the Syrian army blasted the drugs out of existence and now the farmers in the Beqa'a officially grow potatoes. I've seen the hashish fields since they officially ceased to exist. The greenery round Ba'albek must be a new, excitingly different type of potato.

A drugs industry can run more easily in conditions of instability and chaos than in a country able to impose law and order. I'm not sure who's making money out of Lebanese Red and Lebanese Gold these days but according to the Lebanese grapevine, which is usually very reliable, it used to be some extremely high-up political figures.

As with the arms industry, some in positions of power perhaps have a vested interest in NOT having ceasefires or peace.

3 Oil. As far as is known, Lebanon doesn't have any. So no self-interested reason for the oil-guzzling nations to intervene to restore order .

4 America, Israel's paymaster. Israel has the highest per capita income in the eastern Mediterranean region yet receives more financial aid from America than any other country in the world. A lot of the money is spent on arms, which is why Israel's army is the most powerful in the region. Mid-term elections are looming in America and the Jewish lobby in America can make or break politicians. Not mentioned much in the international press or by politicians. American politicians are not going to score own goals by condemning Israel for 'disproportionate' retaliation. America is probably never going to broker any peace deal that gives Israel less than 100% of what it wants.

5 Iran, Hezbollah's paymaster. Being mentioned a lot by members of the Israeli government lately and mentioned often in the international press. It has been conveniently forgotten that in the very recent past America and Iran were setting up to become great buddies. Iran would like to see an Islamic republic in Lebanon. To change the entire structure of the society, it is necessary first to destroy the status quo then rebuild on the ruins. Iran encourages Hezbollah to remain a destabilising factor.

6 Syria, Hezbollah's line manager. Being mentioned a lot by George W Bush lately and mentioned often in the international press. It has been conveniently forgotten that only 15 years ago, Syria was a very active ally to America and Europe in the fight against Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait.

7 Syria, Lebanon's Big Brother. The Syrian army was invited into Lebanon in early 1987 to quell the anarchy caused by inter-militia fighting in Lebanon. This they successfully did. They then outstayed their welcome. Lebanon was part of Syria from Roman times until after World War I, when it was made an independent country by Britain and France. Syria still regards Lebanon as legally part of Syria and imposes dictats on Lebanese government policy accordingly. Disagreement by a Lebanese politician with Syrian policy and assassination of that politician have been known to coincide (eg Kamal Jumblatt, Rafiq Hariri).

8 Israel, Lebanon's friend and enemy. When the Israeli army invaded Lebanon in 1982, they were welcomed by the people of south Lebanon as liberators from the hated, arrogant PLO, who were then treating Lebanon as if they owned it and Lebanese as underlings. The mood soon soured when the Israeli soldiers behaved as badly as the Palestinians. Like the Syrian army, the Israeli army outstayed its welcome.

9 Several of the 'developed' nations have nuclear weapons. Israel also has nuclear weapons. Iran is thought to be developing nuclear weapons. There is a strange, two-faced philosophy about nuclear arms. Those countries that have them want to dictate who else can have them and, of course, will only choose their own friends. This is why Israeli ministers are now mentioning Iran's nuclear development.

The really scary bit about this hidden agenda is that America has already shown the world it is capable of actually using them. Bush has a list of countries he'd like to attack: Syria, Iran, North Korea. If he goes ahead in any of these militarily then gets bogged down as in Iraq, who is to say what could happen next?

Israel and Iran have both been responsible for much violence, which doesn't engender confidence that they would never use the most powerful weapons in the world. Israel has already used, in Lebanon in the 1980s, weapons banned under international law, such as splinter bombs and phosphorous bombs (which it may be using again now). There have been no repercussions for this flagrant flouting of international law. With no comeback for using illegal weaponry, where is the safeguard to ensure nuclear weaponry will not be used?

10 Water. Water is very plentiful in Lebanon, none of which is desert. Lebanon has dozens of small rivers and lots of groundwater thanks to its high mountains, which reach over 3,000m and which are snow-covered for long periods every year. Water is very scarce in Israel, much of which is desert. The only internal source of water is the River Jordan, which we would call a stream not a river as it's not very wide. This is shared with Jordan. During previous hostilities, Syria is said to have diverted the flow of the Jordan so that Israel and Jordan lost some of their water. Since withdrawing from south Lebanon in 2000, Israel has made a trade agreement to buy water from Turkey, which has part of the huge River Euphrates in its territory. If the Israelis occupy south Lebanon again, they will certainly go as far as and including the River Litani. In fact, they have already warned Lebanese civilians to leave to the northern side of the Litani.

The only thing that will stop them will be Israeli public opinion, which is opposed to getting bogged down in an occupation of Lebanon again.