3.0  The development of Innovative Ideas

 

Tseung learned that his innovative ideas did not come from flashes of brilliance.  They were all products of sweat and hard work.  There were obstacles which initially seemed to be insurmountable.  There were flops, mistakes and failures. There would be delays and distractions.  One needed dedication and incredible self-confidence.   

 

Doing research and development as an inventor without support is a very painful process.  One’s savings can disappear very quickly.  There can be great stress on the family and the divorce rate is very high in the inventor community.

 

Tseung was lucky because he had considerable savings and highly regarded computer skills.  He had many good friends and contacts who gave him short term jobs or projects.  That helped him to survive.

 

When Tseung started his own company, he realized that he was neither a good manager nor business negotiator.  The best example of this was his introduction to a Venture Capital investor by a good friend.  The Venture Capitalist listened to the Tseung presentation and offered the sum of US $5 million for 95% of the to-be-formed company.  Tseung walked away from the Conference Room – regarding that as an insult.  His good friend told him afterwards, “In business negotiations, there is the bargaining process.  The other party was testing your negotiation or business skills.  You could have made a counter offer of giving them 5% of the Company for US $5 million.  You have to make the negotiation process fun and enjoyable”.

 

Tseung did receive some Investment Angel money amounting to several hundred thousand dollars.  That amount helped him to survive for a couple of years.  However, he had two strokes at the relatively young age of his 50s.  The doctors attributed that to the stress, bad eating habits and lack of regular exercise.  The first stroke was relatively minor.  The second stroke distorted his face and impaired his speech.  However, that turned out to be a blessing in disguise.

 

When Tseung had his own Company (a one-man company most of the time), he had to attend numerous meetings.  Many of these were not scientific or computer-related meetings.  It was a business protocol.  You listen to me and I listen to you.  That actually helped Tseung.

 

Comments from the Editor and reviewers:

 

(a)    It is difficult to be good at everything.  I prefer to work with a team of talented and motivated people.  Will I become the CEO of one of the most successful international companies in the world?  I know that my company will be in the field of Infinite Energy and Flying Saucers.  It will be one of the first and one of the best.

 

(b)   The lesson I learned from Tseung is that I must understand my own limitations.  Hard work and dedication are not sufficient to achieve success.  I need help from the various sources.  The job of a CEO is not to do everything himself.  The job is to motivate the right people and allocate the appropriate resources.  Make use of opportunities when they knock on the door.

 

(c)    To be an innovator, one must have very strong self-confidence.  Do you have that self-confidence?  What should you do to acquire it?

 


3.1  The meeting at the Department of Commerce and mention of World War 4.

 

There was a departure from innovative scientific ideas.  It started when Tseung was invited to attend a USA Department of Commerce seminar.  The opening statement was – “We are in World 4 now and the USA is losing.  We need your help”.  The participants were all shocked.  They all stared at each other.  Tseung wondered whether he had fallen asleep in his history lessons at school.  World War 3 has not been fought yet.  How can there be World War 4?

 

The presenter continued.  “World War 3 was the cold war.  The winner was the USA.  The USSR collapsed and broke up.  Russia is no longer a leading World Power.  World War 4 is the Economic War.  The battlefields were not the trenches but the boardrooms.  The USA is losing because the developing countries can produce quality products at a fraction of the cost that they can be made in the USA.  Japanese cars, televisions and electrical appliances dominate the World Markets.  Garments and toys from Hong Kong are everywhere.  Many Countries have protective policies”.

 

The participants were stimulated.  Many proposals were tabled.  The three that sank into the mind of Tseung were:

l          USA would give up some traditional industries such as garments.  However, before giving up, it would invest and spread the technology to many developing countries.  Let these countries compete for orders.  These Countries will cut their own throats in lowering the prices.  USA would be seen as the good guy providing knowledge and orders.

l          Heavily protect the high-profit intellectual property products.  The example quoted was software.  While the cost of packaging a CD and some manuals is only a few US dollars, but that same product can be sold for hundreds or even thousands of dollars.

l          Promote the globalization concept.  Persuade the Countries to drop their protective policies especially in the financial sector.  Tell them that the USA will open up its markets.  You should do the same.  Do not mention the fact that in the financial world, the big fish can easily swallow the small fish.

 

This was at least ten years before the Asian Financial Crisis.  The three above strategies, while seemingly simple, had important consequences.

 

Tseung came away with the impression that the above strategies were win-lose strategies.  Could there be win-win strategies?  One of his barter deals triggered the brilliant idea of Mutual Credits.  Tseung was looking for office space.  He could not afford high rents.  In his search, he met a property owner who had many vacant office spaces.  The property owner wanted to computerize his operation.  Tseung negotiated a deal with him where he provided office space at very low rents to Tseung and in return, Tseung would help him computerize his operation at extremely low consulting rates. 

 

This early idea is the development of the concept of Mutual Credits.  In Mutual Credits, Country A gives Country B a credit of its currency valued at say, US $1 billion.  Country B can use that amount to buy goods and services from Country A.  Country B also gives Country A the same credit of its currency.  Even if Country B is poor, it will not incur any debt.  It can use the currency of Country A to buy needed goods and services.  Country A must use that credit and may invest in Country B to help it develop.

 

The arrangement is a win-win strategy.  If a computer system were set up to arrange and monitor the process, the benefits would be even higher.  The amount can increase the next year.  This is a case of “you stimulate my economy and I simulate yours”.  Poor countries can develop much faster if they adopt this strategy.

 

Tseung bounced the idea off many groups.  One computer group took on the task of writing a computer program.  Another group took on the task of presenting the idea to Governments.  The last group took on the task of talking to some International Bankers.  The feedback from the last group was that the International Bankers thought that such an idea would destroy their business and their profits.  If Countries do not borrow, how could they make money?

 

Tseung knew that he was right.  Win-win solutions are possible.  This Mutual Credit is similar to business groups accompanying presidential visits.  Many business deals would be signed.  However, the presidential visits were mainly political shows.  The Mutual Credit arrangement could be more long term and much better planned.

 

Tseung then expanded the idea to two Cities within the same Country.  He further thought about the Mutual Credit arrangement between a City and a farming region.  He knew that he had a win-win innovative idea.

 

Comments from the Editor and reviewers:

 

(a)    The Mutual Credit idea sounds logical and reasonable.  Will its impact rival that of Infinite Energy or the Flying Saucer?

 

(b)   Who will object – International Bankers?

 

(c)    A government can print money to do some infrastructure work.  In mutual credits, two governments can print money to do work in each other’s country.  The openness will reduce corruption.  The experience can be shared.  A country must increase its money supply so that its citizens can be wealthy.  Mutual credits can increase the money supply in two countries simultaneously with pre-planned benefits.

 

(d)   Can you explain the concept of Mutual Credits to your friends or colleagues?

 


3.2  The meeting with the Nephew of a Chinese Official

 

Tseung had the chance to meet the nephew of a Chinese Official in Los Angeles.  In the 1980s, the young relatives of many Chinese Officials were sent to the USA to learn.  This particular nephew opened a store selling Chinese Economic Information.  Tseung was interested and spent many hours discussing various economic concepts.

 

The first example was the issue of increasing the money supply.  The nephew was complaining about the need to raise money to build a road.  He said that China was poor and needed to borrow money to build the road.  Tseung said, “It is total nonsense.  China can and should print money to build the road.  China already possesses the know-how to build the road.  Most of the materials are available within China.  China must print money to build the road.  Assume China prints 1 billion RMB to build the road.  After the road is built, the real asset or value of the road to China is at least 1 billion RMB.  The economic activities in building the road easily exceed 1 billion RMB.  The workers need to eat and have entertainment.  The printing and spending the 1 billion RMB can easily stimulate 4-5 billion RMB worth of meaningful economic activity.  If China does not increase its money supply, how can the Chinese people be wealthy?”

 

The nephew argued about the need to control inflation.  Tseung said, “It is a matter of adjusting the rate of currency increase to the rate of increase of meaningful economic activities.  Deficit spending is good and necessary if properly managed. A Country is different from an Individual.  It can increase the money supply.  Money is just a number in a trusted institution.  Such numbers can increase or decrease.  It can even be infinite.  However, one must not overdo it.  Otherwise, the supplier of goods may refuse to sell, hoping the price will increase in the near future.  Instead of stimulating economic growth, the excess printing of money may even retard the economy”.

 

The nephew was impressed.  They talked about the best housing policy for China.  Tseung said, “One way is to announce that China intends to rebuild City X every 50 years.  There can then be an estimate of how many new houses or old houses that need to be build or rebuilt annually.  The Government can help to guarantee loans for its Citizens.  This can be an important source of meaningful economic activity.  Modern Wealth is just the quality and quantity of meaningful economic activities”.

 

The nephew said, “Previously, I always thought that the kings or rulers were suckers.  They did not work but demanded the farmers to give a portion of their harvest.  The rulers provide protection from other rulers.  Now I understand that rulers are responsible for the coordination of the creation of meaningful economic activities.  They are the guardians of modern wealth.  It is a new role that few presidents or politicians understand.  I shall discuss it with my uncle.  You should write a book”.

 

Tseung then wrote the following article for him.

 

Blueprint for the Economic Development of China in the 21st Century

 

Introduction

The goal of this article is to provide a concrete plan for Chinese economic engineers to guide the country into the 21st century.  In this vein, we are approaching the topic from the point of view of an economic architect, and will first discuss broad concepts and visions and then outline the necessary steps for implementation.

The broad concepts are somewhat controversial.  They include:

  1. We must replace Win-Lose solutions with Win-Win solutions.  China cannot possibly following the doctrine of "Survival of the Fittest" which worked for the West.  China must learn from the Asian Financial Crisis and drop the Win-Lose financial solutions of options, derivative and currency futures.  Otherwise years of hard work and sacrifice could be wiped out within weeks.
  2. Money is only a number in some Trusted Financial Institutions.  It can change from positive to negative valuation without any wrongdoing by the individual. We must view Modern Wealth as the Quality and Quantity of Meaningful Economic Activities. 
  3. A Country such as China must increase its own money supply.  It cannot just earn it.   An individual or a small city-state such as Singapore or Hong  Kong can accumulate its wealth by the simple process of earning more and spending less.  A big country such as China cannot do that. A very modest goal of 50,000 yuan in savings per person translates to 50 trillion yuan or US $6 trillion.  Raising such money by simply exporting more than China imports would create an inconceivably huge trade imbalance.

 

 

The implementation steps are very powerful and they can be carried out simultaneously.  If they are carried out properly, then China will become the wealthiest country in the world. They are:

  1. China should now develop the Experimental Zones as "Replication Masters".  The phenomenal growth of China in the 21st century will be via replication of these zones. The learning and observing phase is over. China should start the process of turning the "city building" art into a "factory style" science.  Every detail will be clearly documented.  There will be no more delay or hesitation due to lack of specifications.
  2. China must create Companies as sources of wealth.  By developing a superior entrepreneur-support system, China will be the envy of the world.   Some innovative ideas include paying minimum or standard wages for 3 principals for six months for each startup; supporting Public Investors with 100,000 yuan each to fund the startups; merging capitalism and socialism through the government owning 50% of the founder shares; etc.
  3. China must use Mutual Credit or Trade Balance Agreements with other cities or countries.  This powerful mechanism will enable China and other Asian countries to "spend their way out" of the present recession.  At the same time, it will prevent currency speculator attacks. This mechanism can be applied between cities within China.  It can also be applied between China and other countries including Japan and US. A US $2 billion Mutual Credit Agreement between Hong Kong and Shanghai can generate 100,000 jobs for Hong Kong and over 600,000 jobs for Shanghai. .
  4. China must expand the relationship selling technique into a science.   In relationship selling, Chinese merchants would not always seek to buy low and sell high.  If a product from another part of China is not the best in the world, an effort will always be made to turn it into the best.  The merchants are encouraged to use the best entrepreneur support system in the world in this process.  No worthwhile projects or improvements will ever suffer due to a lack of capital, information or talent.
  5. China must master the many-to-many capability of the Internet.   There is no need to argue whether a project should be approached top-down or bottom-up.  Any one can form his web and then link to other webs.  Re-weaving in multiple ways to present multiple angles and multiple points of view are encouraged.   Any one can propose and receive the cheers and jeers. China will no longer be limited by the vision of its leaders.

 


Controversial Concept 1 - Replacing Win-Lose solutions with Win-Win solutions

 

The industrialized nations of the West have succeeded thanks largely to a win-lose solution, the "Survival of the Fittest”. This is the doctrine that was used to justify wiping out American Indians, enslaving Africans, colonising countries across the globe, and exporting opium. Survival of the Fittest meant that building happiness on the suffering of others was acceptable, and this system worked for the West because of its superior weapons and technology.

 

World War I and II were the results of such Win-Lose philosophy.

 

China cannot possibly copy and follow such Win-Lose solutions to build its wealth. Another World War with Nuclear Weapons will mean the end of the entire human race.  There will be no wealth left for any one.

 

Some Win-Lose Rules still dominate today's financial markets, such as options, derivatives and currency futures. If a speculator has sufficient financial resources to control the stock market of a small nation, then he can quietly buy call options to prepare for an up leg assault. He then buys stocks aggressively to push the market up and thus profit handsomely from the call options. He can then quietly buy many put options to prepare for the down leg assault. Once he has an excess amount of put options in his possession, he can dump the stock at any price and profit handsomely from the put options.

 

The Speculator then converts the local currency back into US dollars by mounting an assault on the currency.  The entire currency reserve of the small country can be drained within days.  What is truly amazing is that every transaction is legal under the Win-Lose Rules.  The Prime Minister of Malaysia, Dr. Mahathir Mohamad, has complained bitterly but so far no changes to these rules are in sight. 

 

Due to the loose control and monitoring, accurate estimation of the cash loss was difficult. Many estimated the actual cash loss to the Asian nations exceeded US $280 billion.   The asset depreciation was in excess of US $3 trillion. US $280 billion is more than the total foreign currency reserve of Japan, which took decades to accumulate.  All these were drained within a few weeks.   An example of such a report was in the China International News Daily on 26th November 1997.

 

China must identify such Win-Lose Rules and replace them with Win-Win Rules if it wants to progress smoothly into the 21st century.

 


Controversial Concept 2 - Money is only a number in some Trusted Financial Institutions.  It can change from positive to negative without any wrongdoing by the individual. We must view Modern Wealth as the Quality and Quantity of Meaningful Economic Activities. 

 

Money is only a number in some trusted financial institutions. Wealth can change rapidly, from positive to negative valuations in many cases, without any wrongdoing by the individual investor. Economic systems would be better served if our view of wealth came to be the measure of the quality and quantity of meaningful economic activities. This would help stave off such fluctuations by having more realistic valuations.

 

Many Asian tycoons have had recent painful experiences with the dramatic fluctuations in the current system. Their stock and property holdings in Thailand, Indonesia, and other Asian nations lost most of their value in a matter of weeks.  In such a climate a person who has borrowed or has mortgages on his properties can easily be wiped out. 

 

For example, a tycoon might have a US $800 million mortgage on a building valued at US $1 billion in July 1997.  The man would be considered creditworthy and had US $200 million to his name.   By Oct 1997, the entire property market in Thailand dropped by 40%. The building would now be valued at less than US $600 million and the owner is considered a debtor of US $200 million. If he had borrowed in US currency and received rents in local currency, he could be forced into bankruptcy.  His net worth turned negative within weeks and he could do little about it.  His many years of hard work and achievement would be wiped out in just a few weeks.

Millions of people lost their trust in the Asian financial institutions during the crisis, and many have put whatever they could into US Financial Institutions. This helped the US economy and further depressed the Asian Economy.

 

Many economists and mainstream news reports in the West attribute the collapse of the Asian Economy to corruption, mismanagement, and oversupply of the local currency. These may all be true. However, these elements were also present during the many decades of the Asian Miracle. Our interpretation is that there will be dirty linen in the collapse of any organization. China is well known for its corruption and yet it suffered no collapse because its Financial Market was closed and speculators chose not to attack it.

 

The Asian Miracle before the collapse was due to the important fact that when a country is in catch-up mode, the pace of growth can be much faster than when a country is creating something new. For example, there is no need to re-invent the automobile, which took the West fifty years to perfect. A joint venture could enable domestic production within a decade.

 

The fast pace in Asia greatly increased the quality and quantity of meaningful economic activities. The Asians thought that they had mastered the art of Modern Wealth. They focused on expansion and speculation. They wanted recognition, such as building the world's tallest buildings.  In the rush, inefficiency, mismanagement and corruption were tolerated, and Asians let their defenses down. They adopted and fell victim to the Win-Lose Financial Rules.

 

Losing more than US $280 billion in a few weeks meant that some countries lost their entire currency reserves.  Meanwhile, the depreciation of more than US $3 trillion meant many Asian tycoons lost their fortune. The tycoons with mortgages on their properties might now be forced into debt or into bankruptcy.  Decades of hard work and achievement wiped out.  No wonder Asian confidence has collapsed!

So far, the Asian Nations are not changing nor protecting themselves from the Win-Lose Financial Rules.  China MUST not fall into the same trap. 

Asian countries should focus on increasing the quality and quantity of their meaningful economic activities. The IMF practice of closing down industries, creating high unemployment, opening the country further to the Win-Lose rules is causing more damage and will retard the progress of the Asian Countries.

 

 

Controversial Concept 3 - A Country such as China must increase its own money supply. It cannot just earn it.

This is one of the most important concepts for China to master if it is to progress into the 21st Century.  The prudent way for an individual to accumulate wealth is to earn more than he spends.  He can thus accumulate wealth or increase his investments in the financial institutions of his choice - banks, stock brokerage firms, properties, etc.

However, a country such as China must view money differently.  For example, if we set a modest goal that the average Chinese citizen will have a saving or asset of 55,000 yuan ten years from now.  Where would the money supply or asset come from?  The increase of 50 trillion yuan (50,000 * 1 billion), or US $6 trillion, cannot possibly come from exports alone.  The buyer nations will not tolerate such huge trade imbalances.

This means China must look for ways to increase its wealth from within. Printing money recklessly without justification will cause intolerable inflation and will give speculators a good excuse to attack the currency. Solutions such as mutual credits (more on mutual credit later) and creating companies as a source of wealth must be implemented.

 

 

Implementation steps

 

Step 1 - Use of Experimental Zones as "Replication Masters"

 

China has been extremely successful in the use of Special Economic Zones such as Shenzhen and Shanghai. This should be continued. China MUST not open up completely before it is ready.  If the dirty linen, corruption and poor business practices which are now plaguing the rest of Asia, are not cleared up, then trust will evaporate.  In such a situation, China could collapse suddenly, perhaps even within the span of a few weeks.

 

Previously, the Special Economic Zones were used by Chinese government economists to learn and to increase understanding.  Now the Special Economic Zones will be developed as "master cookie cutters" with the aim of rapid replication.  These "master cookie cutters" will be used to clone other zones. 

 

China may have many cities that look like Shenzhen or Shanghai with almost identical buildings, shops, facilities and infrastructures.  This cloning or replication process will make China the envy of the world in the 21st century.  The growth rate will be in multiple digits for the foreseeable future.

 

China must have the mindset that spending 100 million yuan in building roads in the Special Economic Zones is increasing the wealth by 100 million yuan.  Such accounting is acceptable provided that all resources in building the roads come from within China. (Foreign investors would expect a return on their investment and the money paid to them would have to come from the Chinese economy.)
Printing and circulating the extra $100 million to the contractors and the workers is good and necessary if the Chinese citizens are to be wealthy.

 

If the increase in money supply is open and it is properly communicated that the increase is backed up by real increases in resources and products that support the strength of the currency, then there will be no danger of runaway inflation. The citizens will support it wholeheartedly if they know that 50,000 yuan is targeted to flow into each of their pockets. This strategy must be discussed openly and promoted properly to citizens and trading partners both within and outside China.

The following steps will highlight many ways in creating wealth and putting more money into the pockets of Chinese citizens.

 

 

Step 2 - Creating Companies as a Source of Wealth

 

There will be Entrepreneur Support Policies which surpass anything practiced today.  The proposal is as follows:

Part A - Government Funded Facilities, namely:

  1. Provide Free Space.
  2. Conference Rooms and telephone answering services.
  3. Fax, Copiers, and Computers with internet access
  4. Access to volunteer lawyers, accountants, business people, and entrepreneurs
  5. Free Seminars and/or recordings

 

Part B - Infrastructure support, namely:

  1. The Chinese Government will own 50% of the startup company in return for providing the above facilities plus grants for the "Public Investors" (more on Public Investors later).
  2. The company may sell additional stock, increasing the number of shares by up to 100% and thus diluting the entrepreneur's and government's holding to 25% each, to raise working capital for the company.
  3. Provides a qualifying standard for startups, such as evaluating the business plans, and checking the background of the entrepreneurs.
  4. Recommends a list of qualified startups or spin-offs for the "Public Investors," wealthy businessmen, and venture capitalists.
  5. Provides Open Information Computer Systems to build public trust in the system. The many-to-many capability of the internet will be heavily used, allowing for public and open discussion about the companies.

Part C - Additional Enhancement

  1. A draft business plan must be completed before the Government (or Committee) will provide the facilities.
  2. Companies may have the government pay standard wages for a period of up to six months for as many as 3 principals for each startup. These three employees are to work on the development of the business plan, thereby increasing the chances of a solid, well thought out plan.
  3. The Government may sell or use some of its shares to motivate others to help in the startup. Officials may own such shares provided the information is made public. There will be no accusation of conflict of interest. It will be seen as a sign of confidence by these Officials.
  4. The draft business plan may be kept confidential at the request of the entrepreneur but if two or more draft business plans contain similar ideas, the Government (or the Committee) may optionally get the two groups together and combine their efforts.
  5. Once the business plan is approved, it will be made public. The principals will be encouraged to work as if there were no tomorrow to develop the company.

 

Part D - Who are the Public Investors

 

  1. Adult citizens in the Experimental Zone will have to pass a Public Investor Examination.  This examination ensures that the citizen is familiar with basic investment skills such as reading business plans, using information from newspapers, the internet, etc.
  2. Each Public Investor will be entrusted with a grant of 100,000 yuan (Chinese Dollars) or approximately US $11,000. A recommended number of new Public Investors is 500 per month for a city the size of Shenzhen (population of about 2,000,000). The interest will be a simple 3%. All transactions will be open to the public via the internet.
  3. If a Public Investor makes money, he must repay the grant totally before he can withdraw and enjoy any of the profit. Once he repays the grant, he is free to do whatever he wishes with the stock or the cash. It will be his money.
  4. If the Public Investor loses money, he may repay from his own savings or do some community work, including discussion and publication of his experience. The grant will then be written off.

Every citizen can be a Public Investor once in his lifetime. If there are more qualified applicants, 250 of the "Public Investors" will be the winners of the dummy trades on the computer system (essentially a stock game to train investors) and 250 will be the winners of a random lottery system. Losers will automatically qualify for next month's lottery.

 

 

Part E - The Implications

  1. Encourage the dreamers, visionaries and entrepreneurs to be millionaires so that they can maintain and fund their companies without further direction or subsidy from the Government.
  2. Develop many investment-minded citizens who understand the workings of the investment system. Hopefully, they can stand the inevitable financial storms without the usual panic.
  3. The Government invests 50 million yuan every month for startup or spin-off companies. This can be matched by any amount of investment from private banks, venture capitalists, investment angels and foreigners. The foreigners are anybody outside the Experimental Zone. They may be of any nationality.
  4. The Government (or Committee) would have ensured that all recommended ventures are legal and properly prepared. Any failure will not be due to scams or gross inadequacy of the founders. 
  5. The actual return on such investment is expected to be 500% or more when these companies go public. The entrepreneurs will become millionaires who at the same time are creating at least the same amount of wealth for the State.  This effectively merges Capitalism and Socialism, and is the power of creating companies as a source of wealth.  Many citizens will be happy holding shares instead of cash.

 

Step 3 - Develop Mutual Credit or Trade Balance Agreements with other Cities or Countries

 

Conceptually, the Mutual Credit Arrangement is easy to understand. Two parties exchange goods or services of equivalent value. Both sides will have roughly equivalent meaningful economic activities, creating a win-win situation. The earliest barter systems have the above elements.

 

For example, let us presume that Hong Kong and Shanghai plan to do a Mutual Credit Agreement worth US $2 billion in 1999. The Hong Kong Government sets aside Hong Kong dollars to the equivalent of US $2 billion (whatever the exchange rate is at present). The Shanghai City Government sets aside Chinese dollars or yuan.

 

The set aside amount can then be used to guarantee to the participating Hong Kong and Shanghai merchants that no matter what fluctuation in currency might occur, a fixed and guaranteed exchange rate will be used for their transactions covered by their Mutual Credit Agreement.

 

Let us examine the impact of a US $2b Mutual Credit Agreement for Hong Kong. If we simply divide the sum of $2b by $20K (assuming US $20K is the average Hong Kong Salary), we get 100,000. This means 100,000 jobs for Hong Kong. The impact to the total Hong Kong revenue is roughly 1.7% ($2b/($20,000 * 6m)). Would Hong Kong reject such a win-win proposal?

 

The impact to Shanghai is even more dramatic. The average salary is only US $3,000. This translates to 670,000 jobs ($2b/$3K).

 

A step-by-step process would be as follows:

  1. The Hong Kong government gives HK $(2b * 7.7) where 1 US $ = 7.7 HK$ to the Shanghai City Government. This is the amount equivalent to US $2 billion but the currency in the hands of the Shanghai City Government is in HK$.
  2. The Shanghai City Government gives (2b * 8.4) yuan where 1US$ = 8.4 yuan to the Hong Kong Government.
  3. A qualified Hong Kong merchant within this agreement plans to buy 10 million yuan of clothes from a qualified Shanghai merchant. The Hong Kong Merchant buys the 10 million yuan from the Hong Kong Government at the fixed exchange rate of
         1 US $=7.7 HK $= 8.4 Yuan
  4. There will be no risk due to fluctuating exchange rates. In addition, other non-money making or research type projects that are "meaningful" can be funded. This is the concept of "spending our way out of recession”.
    Hong Kong can be thought of as giving Shanghai US $2 billion to spend on Hong Kong made goods or services. Shanghai returns the favor.
  5. In reality, the amounts are offsetting. Hong Kong does not need to physically deposit the Hong Kong dollars into Shanghai and vice versa. The numbers can just be stored and displayed on computer systems. Every one can see the offsetting amounts and the type of projects involved. Such openness will stimulate more ideas. It will be a model for the future Mutual Credit Arrangements.

The meaningful economic activities covered within the Mutual Credit Agreement may be the traditional money-making trade activities, such as:

(1) Manufactured Goods
(2) Tourism
(3) Re-exports
(4) Agricultural Products
(5) Training and Consulting
(6) Entertainment
(7) Investments
(8) Any other legal, meaningful economic activities

 

Some non money-making cultural activities such as student exchanges, joint conferences etc. may also be considered meaningful economic activities. The Shanghai City Government can provide interest free student loans for their students to visit and enrich their education experiences in Hong Kong. The "foreign currency" is already guaranteed by the Hong Kong Government. The reverse also applies.

 

Some research activities that usually have low priority can now take place. Examples of this include studies on the psychology of the single child; the social needs of the single child parent; the impact of the internet on the school systems; the interesting places for tourists to visit, the opportunities for the restaurant industries; the opportunities for the entertainment industries; the opportunities for the fashion designers; the opportunities for the software industry; the opportunities for franchising; etc. etc.

 

In times of recession, we have to "spend" our way out.  If we "spend" the right way --such as doing much more opportunity exploring-- we can get out of recessions much faster. The individuals who lost half their fortune in the Asian Financial Crisis would not be likely candidates to fund "non money-making" or "research projects". The Public Sector or the Government must step in.  In a Mutual Credit Agreement, Hong Kong "spends" on Shanghai and Shanghai "spends" on Hong Kong. We not only stimulate the economy but also generate good will at the same time. Isn't this a Win-Win situation?

 

The merchants and individuals in a Mutual Credit Agreement still think and do their transactions in money terms. They have the assurance of a fixed exchange rate that ensures stability. They also have the guaranteed payment from the Governments that already "hold" the needed currency.

 

Any company or organization that wishes to participate in the Mutual Credit Agreement needs to go through a qualifying process to ensure that it can deliver the goods or services. Once qualified, their information will be available on the computer systems. Any trade agreement reached will also be recorded and displayed on the computer systems. The offsetting amounts can be updated in real time.

 

This Mutual Credit Agreement will stimulate the economies of Hong Kong and Shanghai and increase the work ethic of their citizens. With US $2 billion to be had, the entrepreneurial spirit of the two cities will increase, and the economic activities which result are likely to exceed the money initially invested.

 

With Mutual Credits, there is no currency flowing outside the two parties for the Speculators.  In reality, the set-aside amount can just be numbers on the internet waiting for the merchants to do offsetting deals.

 

The foundation behind Mutual Credit Agreements is trust. For example, while Thailand does not have US $2 billion currency Hong Kong or Shanghai can still have a Mutual Credit agreement with Thailand valued at US $2 billion. Instead, the guarantee is that the minimum of meaningful economic activity will be worth at least US $2 billion to both parties.

 

Shanghai and Shenzhen can have Mutual Credit Arrangements with each other and with other Chinese cities. This means that the meaningful economic activities within China can be greatly increased without fear of inflation.

 

The increase in money supply is tied to increases of economic activities between cities. Chinese citizens can become rich through internal mechanisms! They have to work hard and in a clever way to earn it. Their increased capability easily justifies the extra supply of money.

 

So long as the overall balance of trade is zero or slightly in China's favor, there will be no excuse for any attacks by speculators. China MUST control its currency and build trust via open information systems. The Win-Lose Rules will not be allowed in the Experimental Zones and, hopefully, banned in all of China.

 

This Win-Win solution can be applied to any trading partner including Japan or the US. It will be one of the top trumps in the Trading Game. China MUST master and perfect it.

 

 

Step 4 - Develop ‘Relationship Selling’ into a Science

 

Let us examine the following example:

Suppose we are an importer who sells cattle from other parts of China in Shanghai. We can see that the cattle we buy are not as big or as well fed as the ones at other agricultural shows. We can bring up this point and use it at the bargaining table to drive down the price of the cattle. We follow the buy low sell high philosophy.

 

Alternatively, we can use the Relationship Trading technique and talk about how the cattle can be improved. We can talk about how a win-win scenario can be established if we can help to introduce a new breed, improve the feed, use newer technology, etc.

 

We may even go one step further and talk about entrepreneurial support as discussed in Step 2. We can talk about developing a business plan in an entrepreneur support center, getting Public Investors or other private individuals to pump in capital and exciting the General Public to prepare for listing as a stock exchange company. We can get partners from the agricultural schools - let the students do the vigorous research and stimulate them to become entrepreneurs.

 

Thus, even if the introduction of the new breed and the new technology costs $100 million yuan, investment capital will be available.  The Chinese citizens must treat such investment as investment into their collective future.  The new breed can be marketed not only to Shanghai but also to the rest of China and even to the rest of the world.  Chinese merchants must change their habit of hoping to finance operations via earnings or borrowing.  The right way is to team up whenever possible. Japan Inc. was successful.  We should think in terms of Hong Kong Inc., Shanghai Inc. and even China Inc. In conjunction with the greater monetary supply the Chinese Government will provide, the citizens will essentially be investing new money into new ventures. With the success of some of the ventures, the new money will have created new, real wealth, and the money's value will be supported by this new wealth. In this way the whole country can be enriched.

 

We can apply the same principle to pigs, chicken, ducks, apples, oranges or any other products. How can Shanghai or other Experimental Zones be short of jobs? Not all new ideas are high technology.  There are opportunities which can be implemented and that only involve low technology which has relatively little risk.

 

This mindset of "I scratch your back and you scratch mine" will create the next wave of very meaningful economic activities for China.  It will build China's image as the Win-Win solution provider, and Chinese citizens will see double digit percentage increases in their personal wealth.

 

Relationship selling coupled with Entrepreneur Support in a Mutual Credit environment virtually guarantees success for the Experimental Zones. As soon as one or more Experimental Zones are developed into "model cookie cutters," China can churn out dozens more.

 

If the increase in money supply (say, $50 trillion yuan) in the next ten years is tied closely with the increase in the quality and quantity of meaningful economic activities, there will be no danger of runaway inflation. China would have thousands of "Public Investors", entrepreneurs, business tycoons and civil servants studying and supporting it.  With the "cookies" popping up everywhere, the confidence of the Chinese will rise quickly. 

 

If the Chinese drop the Win-Lose Rules and adopt the Win-Win Rules in both domestic and international situations, they will be seen as the Win-Win solution provider. They will trust themselves and their own financial institutions.  And China will become the wealthiest nation in the world.  

 

It cannot, however, succeed by opening itself up to competition immediately. China must first improve its own products and business techniques through these methods outlined above before it can successfully compete with the West. Therefore, not only are we creating a level playing field for China, but also we can in the process train the players (the business people) to the level which they will need to be able to compete. At present, the calibre of Chinese players is nowhere near competition level. Most don't even understand the rules!

 

In the long run, China will open up its markets completely to competition, but not before it is prudent to do so. Both the advantages and pitfalls of this policy can be seen in Japan. Japan Inc. grew because its small companies were encouraged to compete against the world, not against each other. However, after many years the domestic infrastructure remained too heavily protected by relationships built between Japanese companies that consumer prices were extremely high. When Japan opened to the supermarket style of the West, many traditional small businesses failed -- causing the present Japanese economic crisis.

 

Therefore, China should protect its industries and support them and help them grow -- and then cut the strings and let them compete fully with the world and with each other.

 

 

Step 5 - The Web Way

 

The Web Way of openly developing ideas in a many-to-many environment is the way of the 21st Century. In the old days of software development, one was supposed to do a thorough system analysis and attack the problem from the top down. When a problem was too complex and involved too many factors, the analysis phase could take months. Sometimes, the analysis finally completed, the business environment had already changed, making the work done irrelevant.

 

With the Web Way, we just start anywhere in solving the complex economic problems in China. We just pump out the ideas and the proposed solutions as fast as possible. Let anybody jeer or cheer. Link to other webs to form a bigger web. Some people will attack the problem from the top down. Some will attack the problem from bottom up. Some will attack the problem sideways. Some will insist on a global vision. Some will insist on detailed, practical solutions. The important element is to share the ideas early. If the ideas were ill advised, then take the jeers and upgrade the ideas.

 

With Experimental Zones, the Chinese leaders do not have to worry about dirty linen. They can start clean or openly acknowledge that there will be dirty linen in the Experimental Zones.  One of the challenges is to clean the dirty linen.  Let the experts analyze the problems and propose the solutions.  Let these experts compete. Any one can propose and present his vision. There is no need to wait for the direction from leaders. In other words, China will never be limited by the vision of its leaders. So long as there is one clever Chinese or one friendly American proposing great ideas, China can surge ahead. 

 

With the Web Way, there is often no need for formal plans nor deadlines for many projects. Once the project ideas or challenges are raised, many experts will try to crack them.  When the concepts are clear, we can write proposals, followed by formal bidding.  China can easily contract the proposal writing to the contributing experts.   This will attract the interest and participation of many experts.  The Experimental Zones will not be short of ideas, information, knowledge or special skills if the leaders are willing to tap the Web.  

 

Summary

 

It is easy for China to maintain a high growth rate as it is in the catch-up mode.    However, it is clear from the Asian Financial Crisis that copying the Win-Lose rules from the West will invite disaster.  Decades of hard work and sacrifice can disappear in days.  China has to open up slowly.   China must identify the Win-Lose rules and replace them with Win-Win rules.  Some Win-Lose rules are options, derivatives and currency futures.  Some Win-Win rules are Mutual Credits, Relationship Selling and Creating Companies as a Source of Wealth.

 

China should continue its policy of using Special Economic Zones such as Shenzhen and Shanghai. However, the emphasis can be different.  Previously, the emphasis was on learning.  Now the emphasis should be on producing the replication masters.  The next phase of economic activity for China is likely to be the cloning from the replication masters.

 

We discussed many innovative proposals which cab be readily implemented, such as:

  1. Developing the Special Economic Zones as replication masters.  The cloning process will generate the phenomenal growth for China in the 21st century.
  2. The setting up of "Public Investors" each with 100,000 yuan to invest. There will be no lack of capital for well-conceived projects.
  3. Government acting as Venture Capitalist owning 50% of the startup shares. This effectively merges Capitalism and Socialism.
  4. Use of a US $2 billion Mutual Credit Agreement to provide 100,000 jobs for Hong Kong and probably more than 600,000 jobs for Shanghai.  This technique will also prevent speculator attacks.
  5. Promote Relationship Selling that can easily get 50,000 yuan into the pocket of every Chinese within 10 years.  This technique will enable China to get the best products and services.
  6. Increase the money supply by 50 trillion yuan without fear of inflation.  The increase is internally generated instead of earning via exports.  This technique will make China the wealthiest nation in the world.
  7. Using the many-to-many capability of the internet to get international support. Some startup companies such as ‘VOICE’ are planning to participate and to become the Visa of International Commerce earning a 1% fee or more. 

 

The Chinese Economic Architect has now presented the blueprint.  The Chinese Economic Engineers will have a busy and fun time implementing it.

 

 

The rest of the on-line book with the first part in Chinese is available in http://www.energyfromair.com/thebook.htm

 

Comments from the Editor and reviewers:

 

Innovative ideas do not need to be restricted to science.  The above Blueprint for the Economic Development for China in the 21st Century article demonstrates this.  Ideas in the field of Economics, Social Science and Philosophy do not need experimental confirmation.  Many new ideas (or unpolished diamonds) can be proposed.  The ideas presented in this section are all very impressive.  But the one that strikes me most is the new roles of Rulers.  They are no longer just defenders from other Rulers.  They are a key element in defining, implementing and maintaining meaningful economic activities.  Money is just a number in trusted financial institutions.  The Rulers or Governments are responsibly in maintaining these trusted financial institutions.  They are responsible for increasing the number (money supply) so that the citizens can all be wealthy without the need to rob others.

 

 


3.3  Meeting of the Legislative Council Member of Hong Kong in Los Angeles

 

Tseung took part in an essay competition organized by an overseas Chinese Newspaper.  The subject was the return to China of Hong Kong by the UK.  Tseung used a small section from his above article on the Blueprint for the Development of China in the 21st century.  He won a small prize.  That encouraged him to pay more attention to the affairs in Hong Kong.  He wrote bits and pieces on the internet.

 

From the overseas Chinese Newspaper, Tseung learned that Ms. Emily Lau, one of the most influential Legislative Council Members of Hong Kong, was in Los Angeles.  Tseung knew her brother Edward Lau very well from a very young age.  Tseung decided to pay Emily a visit with an early draft of his eBook.

 

Emily was very pleased to spend time with Tseung.  She talked about the optimistic view of the future of Hong Kong.  The property and stock market boomed just before the return of Hong Kong to China.  There was a general feeling that the Hong Kong citizens would prosper more when they have control of their own future.  She talked about the lack of good politicians and the need for political training in Hong Kong.  She suggested that Tseung should spend some time in Hong Kong.

 

The business side of Tseung’s ventures was not doing well.  He could only just survive by taking odd consulting jobs.  He could not earn any money with his patents.  He suffered two strokes.  The first was a minor one.  He was walking on the street and just fell down with a sudden dizziness.  He went to see his family doctor and was told to take things easy.  The advice in addition to medication was to do light exercise, watch the diet and take more rest.  Tseung recovered relatively quickly.  However, managing a start-up one-person company with no regular income was a big stress.  Tseung got his relief through posting on the various internet forums.

 

The second stroke came after a business meeting.  His face became distorted and his speech blurred.  The doctor confirmed that it was a severe stroke.  Tseung had to take much medicine and underwent massage sessions to help correct his facial distortion.  His mental ability deteriorated.  At the worst time, he could not remember more than four numbers at any one time.  For example, when some one told him an eight-digit telephone number, he could only remember four digits.  Everything had to be written down.

 

Emily advised Tseung to try Chinese medicine and acupuncture.  She said that Tseung might be able to do more for Hong Kong if Tseung actually lived in Hong Kong.

 

Comments from the Editor and reviewers:

 

(a) Tseung had his share of bad health.  The second stroke almost destroyed his brainpower.  Or did that allow his brain to redevelop and reach new heights?

 

(b) One should never despair.  Miracles do happen.  Age did not seem to have an effect on the innovative concepts from Tseung.  Physically, he could not run or play tennis.  His swimming was more like floating and gently kicking his arms and legs.  However, his innovative ideas and scientific insight are still impressive.

 

(c) Have you had blessings in disguise?

 


3.4  The Asian Financial Crisis

 

The event which really convinced Tseung that he could do more in Hong Kong than in the USA was the Asian Financial Crisis.  Tseung believed that the stock markets in the Asian Countries could be controlled and manipulated.  The use of stock options and index futures could further aggravate such a process.

 

Tseung outlined a possible form of attack by the foreign vultures:

(1)   Buy Stock Index futures assuming that the stock prices would go up.

(2)   Buy Stock and force the Market up.  Make huge profits from the stock index trading as mentioned in item (1).

(3)   Spread the news that foreign investors are optimistic about the future of the country.  Get the local people excited with stories of quick profits.  Many will jump into the stock market.  Some even borrowed money or played with margins.

(4)   Quietly buy stock index futures assuming that the stock prices would fall.

(5)   Force the Market down by selling the stock purchased in Step (2).  At the same time, spread the news that foreign money is leaving.  The local stock market would collapse in a hurry.

(6)   There might be some gain from the selling of the stock.  However, the huge profit comes from the stock index trading of item (4).

(7)   Buy currency futures assuming that the local currency would depreciate.

(8)   Convert the huge profit from local currency to US dollars.  Drain all the foreign currency reserve of the country in a few days.  The local currency collapsed.

(9)   Make huge profit from the currency future trading of item (7).

(10)   When the economy of the country collapsed, buy their valuable assets at fire-sale prices.

 

Each of the above steps is legal.  It is a classic example of the big fish eating the small fish.  Tseung wrote the above article at the start of the Asian Financial Crisis in Thailand.  The Hong Kong Officials took a tour in the USA and tried to convince the world that Hong Kong was safe from the financial attack.  Tseung attended that presentation and was shocked to hear from the speaker that the Hong Kong Government believed that the free stock market system was fair and no foreign vultures could ever control or manipulate it.

 

Sure enough, the Asian Financial Crisis hit Hong Kong a few months later.  Tseung wrote an open letter advising the Hong Kong Government to buy up the Hong Kong and Shanghai Bank at bargain prices.  The foreign vultures were effectively giving the Hong Kong Government and People a gift.  The then Financial Secretary, presently the Chief Executive of Hong Kong, Mr. Donald Tsang, used the reserves of Hong Kong to buy Hong Kong stocks and fought off the foreign vultures.  He purchased sufficient HSBC shares to make the Hong Kong Government the largest shareholder of the HSBC Bank.  But there was no attempt to take over the management of the Bank.

 

Tseung began to feel that he could have a role to play in Hong Kong.  Destiny might be calling him.  At the same time, his son got a well-paid job in Hong Kong.  Tseung decided to join his son in Hong Kong.

 

Comments from the Editor and reviewers:

 

(a)    Tseung finally moved back to Hong Kong. 

 

(b)   Is the environment better in Hong Kong than USA for innovators?  The New Energy and Flying Saucer inventions have major economic and political implications.  In the USA, Tseung might get funding similar to the 225 HP Pulse Motor.  His work would be treated as confidential.  None of it would probably be published.  (There might even be the worse fate of disappearing from the surface of the earth.) 

 

(c)    Hong Kong might be the best place as it is one of the freest cities on Earth.  Hong Kong is never famous for it innovation or scientific achievements.  Citizens care about money above everything else.  The presentation and internet posts from Lee and Tseung were initially treated as jokes.  One of the semi-government officials even said the following to Tseung: “After you have won the Nobel Prize, we shall fund and support you”.

 

(d)   Can you think of one idea that can change the economic future of your country?  Write it down and share it with your friends or post it on the internet.

 


3.5  Writing the Book on Economic War

 

Tseung initially lived with his son in the prestigious Hill Crest Apartments in the Mid-Level District of Hong Kong.  The top 1% of the wealthy people live there.  The atmosphere is polite and reserved.  Tseung was uncomfortable in such surroundings and decided to move to a village area in Tai Po.  He enjoyed fishing and there were a few artificial fishing ponds in that area.  Soon after he moved to Tai Po, a lady by the name of Eunice Wong came to visit him.

 

Ms. Eunice Wong came from a very influential family in Vietnam and settled in China.  Her family was responsible in repairing the relationship between China and Vietnam.  Her political connections informed her about Tseung.  When she saw Tseung, she said, “I have an experimental Chinese Medicine that is very good in helping stroke patients.  It is not available on the market.  Would you like to try it?”  Tseung was willing to try anything.  The medicine worked.  Within four weeks, Tseung’s memory improved.  He could remember the standard eight-digit telephone numbers used in Hong Kong.  Tseung knew that the medicine really worked because he could program at his previous level of efficiency again.

 

Before he had the strokes, Tseung could plan out the logic of a computer program and then write the computer code as if he were writing a letter.  After the stroke, that was no longer possible.  After having the Chinese Medicine, Tseung was able to write computer programs easily again.  The daily two-hour morning walk helped too.  The rented apartment was close to the large Plover Clove Reservoir.  Tseung made an effort to walk the full distance of the main dam every day.  The air was fresh and the exercise was exactly what the doctors ordered.

 

Eunice Wong was interested to introduce Tseung to the senior officials in Vietnam.  She spent many days working with Tseung on his book.  Tseung also got the help of Ms. Polly Chan to help in the Chinese typing and translation.  Eunice was particularly interested in

l          The orderly development of the real estate market in Vietnam.

l          The training of the Economic War warriors.

l          The computer programs related to Mutual Credits.

l          The coordination of the Planning Right Hand with the Market Economy Left Hand.

 

 

When the first draft of the book was ready,

(http://www.energyfromair.com/thebook.htm) Eunice invited Tseung to travel to Vietnam.  Tseung knew that she must be important in Vietnam when he saw that there was a police escort car behind the vehicle.  The tour started with a trip to a large real estate development.  The price of an apartment in this development jumped from US $13,000 to US $32,000 in a single year.  Many speculators bought the apartments; left them vacant and hoped to profit from the rapid increase in price.  The Vietnamese Government introduced some administrative measures such as fixing the ceiling price at US $26,000 and imposed fines if an apartment was left vacant for more than a period of three months.

 

The Official asked Tseung to comment.  Tseung showed him the steps outlined in the draft of the book.  The new rules of the game as outlined were:

 

1.        The Vietnamese Government publishes a long-term plan to redevelop all old housing in the City of Hanoi within thirty years. (Many houses are still using corrugated iron).

2.        The Vietnamese Government will provide mortgages directly or indirectly to help the Hanoi citizens to buy homes.  The creator of money is the Vietnamese Government.  The rate of increase of money will be adjusted to match the rate of growth of the meaningful economic activities.

3.        The Government offers a minimum buy-back price.  This will provide the confidence for the citizens to purchase their homes.

4.        Try to use the resources from within Vietnam to build such houses.  If there were some specific items not available within Vietnam, try to use Mutual Credit arrangements to acquire them.

5.        The price of houses will appreciate.  Try to keep the appreciation in step with the GDP growth.  The GDP growth was expected to exceed 10% annually.

6.        The Government does not need to borrow money aboard.  It can print or create money.

7.        Create many meaningful economic activities.  Ensure that the GDP growth exceeds 10% annually.

8.        The property owners are virtually guaranteed to be winners.  They do not need to pay rent.  They will earn the appreciated value.  (The mortgage interest rate can be fixed at around 5%.  The loan amount can be 90% of the value of the property which will not be lower than the Government guaranteed amount).  The policy is like putting money into the pocket of every citizen.

9.        Have public and private co-operation in the real estate development.  Create many private companies which can be listed on the Stock Market.

 

The next day, the Official introduced an important translator to translate the book into Vietnamese.  The translator was a relative of the famous Vietnamese General who defeated the French.  The translator said, “The book will be read by all senior officials.  We are now confident that the Economy of Vietnam can grow by at least 10% annually for the foreseeable future.  Thank you for your guidance”.

 

The book was also brought to the attention of the Chinese Economists via an Official in the City of Guangzhou.  The book acquired a nickname of “The Bible of the Ninth Yin”.  The nickname came from the comparison with a famous Chinese Boxing Novel.  In the Novel, the Bible of the Ninth Yin contained extremely powerful boxing techniques.  However, if misused, great harm will come to the boxer.  The Chinese Economists commented that the Book contained many powerful economic concepts.  However, if misapplied, there will be great harm done to the Country.  Tseung thought that the nickname was pretty appropriate.  The Book was meant as stimulation rather than a vigorous textbook.

 

Comments from the Editor and reviewers:

 

(a) The Book on Economic War was written to stimulate.  The Vietnamese Officials appreciate it more because someone important introduced it to them.  Do we need someone important to introduce this Book on Innovation? 

 

(b) Or will the working electricity generator be sufficient to make this Book a best seller?

 

(c) Is it likely that a small Country takes the ideas and technologies outlined in this Book and changes the future of the World?  Is it possible that powerful countries like the USA, China and Russia focus too much on classifying such technologies as top secret that they actually fall behind?

 

(d) Can you explain the concepts of mutual credits, meaningful economic activities, sure win businesses now?  Do you think that such powerful concepts can replace the theory of survival of the fittest in the political world?

 

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