3.0 The
development of Innovative Ideas
Tseung learned
that his innovative ideas did not come from flashes of brilliance. They were all products of sweat and
hard work. There were obstacles
which initially seemed to be insurmountable. There were flops, mistakes and failures. There would be
delays and distractions. One
needed dedication and incredible self-confidence.
Doing research
and development as an inventor without support is a very painful process. One’s savings can disappear very
quickly. There can be great stress
on the family and the divorce rate is very high in the inventor community.
Tseung was lucky
because he had considerable savings and highly regarded computer skills. He had many good friends and contacts
who gave him short term jobs or projects.
That helped him to survive.
When Tseung
started his own company, he realized that he was neither a good manager nor
business negotiator. The best
example of this was his introduction to a Venture Capital investor by a good
friend. The Venture Capitalist
listened to the Tseung presentation and offered the sum of US $5 million for
95% of the to-be-formed company.
Tseung walked away from the Conference Room – regarding that as an
insult. His good friend told him
afterwards, “In business negotiations, there is the bargaining process. The other party was testing your
negotiation or business skills.
You could have made a counter offer of giving them 5% of the Company for
US $5 million. You have to make
the negotiation process fun and enjoyable”.
Tseung did
receive some Investment Angel money amounting to several hundred thousand
dollars. That amount helped him to
survive for a couple of years.
However, he had two strokes at the relatively young age of his 50s. The doctors attributed that to the
stress, bad eating habits and lack of regular exercise. The first stroke was relatively
minor. The second stroke distorted
his face and impaired his speech.
However, that turned out to be a blessing in disguise.
When Tseung had
his own Company (a one-man company most of the time), he had to attend numerous
meetings. Many of these were not
scientific or computer-related meetings.
It was a business protocol.
You listen to me and I listen to you. That actually helped Tseung.
|
Comments from the Editor and reviewers: (a)
It is difficult
to be good at everything. I
prefer to work with a team of talented and motivated people. Will I become the CEO of one of the
most successful international companies in the world? I know that my company will be in the
field of Infinite Energy and Flying Saucers. It will be one of the first and one of the best. (b)
The lesson I
learned from Tseung is that I must understand my own limitations. Hard work and dedication are not
sufficient to achieve success. I
need help from the various sources.
The job of a CEO is not to do everything himself. The job is to motivate the right
people and allocate the appropriate resources. Make use of opportunities when they knock on the door. (c)
To be an
innovator, one must have very strong self-confidence. Do you have that
self-confidence? What should you
do to acquire it? |
3.1
The meeting at the Department of Commerce and mention of World War 4.
There was a
departure from innovative scientific ideas. It started when Tseung was invited to attend a USA
Department of Commerce seminar.
The opening statement was – “We are in World 4 now and the USA is
losing. We need your help”. The participants were all shocked. They all stared at each other. Tseung wondered whether he had fallen
asleep in his history lessons at school.
World War 3 has not been fought yet. How can there be World War 4?
The presenter
continued. “World War 3 was the
cold war. The winner was the
USA. The USSR collapsed and broke
up. Russia is no longer a leading
World Power. World War 4 is the
Economic War. The battlefields
were not the trenches but the boardrooms.
The USA is losing because the developing countries can produce quality
products at a fraction of the cost that they can be made in the USA. Japanese cars, televisions and
electrical appliances dominate the World Markets. Garments and toys from Hong Kong are everywhere. Many Countries have protective
policies”.
The participants
were stimulated. Many proposals
were tabled. The three that sank
into the mind of Tseung were:
l
USA would give up
some traditional industries such as garments. However, before giving up, it would invest and spread the
technology to many developing countries.
Let these countries compete for orders. These Countries will cut their own throats in lowering the
prices. USA would be seen as the
good guy providing knowledge and orders.
l
Heavily protect
the high-profit intellectual property products. The example quoted was software. While the cost of packaging a CD and some manuals is only a
few US dollars, but that same product can be sold for hundreds or even
thousands of dollars.
l
Promote the
globalization concept. Persuade
the Countries to drop their protective policies especially in the financial
sector. Tell them that the USA
will open up its markets. You
should do the same. Do not mention
the fact that in the financial world, the big fish can easily swallow the small
fish.
This was at
least ten years before the Asian Financial Crisis. The three above strategies, while seemingly simple, had
important consequences.
Tseung came away
with the impression that the above strategies were win-lose strategies. Could there be win-win strategies? One of his barter deals triggered the
brilliant idea of Mutual Credits.
Tseung was looking for office space. He could not afford high rents. In his search, he met a property owner who had many vacant
office spaces. The property owner
wanted to computerize his operation.
Tseung negotiated a deal with him where he provided office space at very
low rents to Tseung and in return, Tseung would help him computerize his
operation at extremely low consulting rates.
This early idea
is the development of the concept of Mutual Credits. In Mutual Credits, Country A gives Country B a credit of its
currency valued at say, US $1 billion.
Country B can use that amount to buy goods and services from Country
A. Country B also gives Country A
the same credit of its currency.
Even if Country B is poor, it will not incur any debt. It can use the currency of Country A to
buy needed goods and services.
Country A must use that credit and may invest in Country B to help it
develop.
The arrangement
is a win-win strategy. If a
computer system were set up to arrange and monitor the process, the benefits
would be even higher. The amount
can increase the next year. This
is a case of “you stimulate my economy and I simulate yours”. Poor countries can develop much faster
if they adopt this strategy.
Tseung bounced
the idea off many groups. One
computer group took on the task of writing a computer program. Another group took on the task of
presenting the idea to Governments.
The last group took on the task of talking to some International
Bankers. The feedback from the
last group was that the International Bankers thought that such an idea would
destroy their business and their profits.
If Countries do not borrow, how could they make money?
Tseung knew that
he was right. Win-win solutions
are possible. This Mutual Credit
is similar to business groups accompanying presidential visits. Many business deals would be
signed. However, the presidential
visits were mainly political shows.
The Mutual Credit arrangement could be more long term and much better
planned.
Tseung then
expanded the idea to two Cities within the same Country. He further thought about the Mutual
Credit arrangement between a City and a farming region. He knew that he had a win-win
innovative idea.
|
Comments from the Editor and reviewers: (a)
The Mutual
Credit idea sounds logical and reasonable. Will its impact rival that of Infinite Energy or the
Flying Saucer? (b)
Who will object
– International Bankers? (c)
A government can
print money to do some infrastructure work. In mutual credits, two governments can print money to do
work in each other’s country.
The openness will reduce corruption. The experience can be shared. A country must increase its money supply so that its
citizens can be wealthy. Mutual
credits can increase the money supply in two countries simultaneously with
pre-planned benefits. (d)
Can you explain
the concept of Mutual Credits to your friends or colleagues? |
3.2
The meeting with the Nephew of a Chinese Official
Tseung had the
chance to meet the nephew of a Chinese Official in Los Angeles. In the 1980s, the young relatives of
many Chinese Officials were sent to the USA to learn. This particular nephew opened a store selling Chinese
Economic Information. Tseung was
interested and spent many hours discussing various economic concepts.
The first
example was the issue of increasing the money supply. The nephew was complaining about the need to raise money to
build a road. He said that China
was poor and needed to borrow money to build the road. Tseung said, “It is total
nonsense. China can and should
print money to build the road.
China already possesses the know-how to build the road. Most of the materials are available
within China. China must print
money to build the road. Assume
China prints 1 billion RMB to build the road. After the road is built, the real asset or value of the road
to China is at least 1 billion RMB.
The economic activities in building the road easily exceed 1 billion RMB. The workers need to eat and have
entertainment. The printing and
spending the 1 billion RMB can easily stimulate 4-5 billion RMB worth of
meaningful economic activity. If
China does not increase its money supply, how can the Chinese people be
wealthy?”
The nephew
argued about the need to control inflation. Tseung said, “It is a matter of adjusting the rate of
currency increase to the rate of increase of meaningful economic activities. Deficit spending is good and necessary
if properly managed. A Country is different from an Individual. It can increase the money supply. Money is just a number in a trusted
institution. Such numbers can
increase or decrease. It can even
be infinite. However, one must not
overdo it. Otherwise, the supplier
of goods may refuse to sell, hoping the price will increase in the near
future. Instead of stimulating
economic growth, the excess printing of money may even retard the economy”.
The nephew was
impressed. They talked about the
best housing policy for China. Tseung
said, “One way is to announce that China intends to rebuild City X every 50
years. There can then be an
estimate of how many new houses or old houses that need to be build or rebuilt
annually. The Government can help
to guarantee loans for its Citizens.
This can be an important source of meaningful economic activity. Modern Wealth is just the quality and
quantity of meaningful economic activities”.
The nephew said,
“Previously, I always thought that the kings or rulers were suckers. They did not work but demanded the
farmers to give a portion of their harvest. The rulers provide protection from other rulers. Now I understand that rulers are
responsible for the coordination of the creation of meaningful economic
activities. They are the guardians
of modern wealth. It is a new role
that few presidents or politicians understand. I shall discuss it with my uncle. You should write a book”.
Tseung then wrote
the following article for him.
Introduction The
goal of this article is to provide a concrete plan for Chinese economic
engineers to guide the country into the 21st century. In this vein, we are approaching the
topic from the point of view of an economic architect, and will first discuss
broad concepts and visions and then outline the necessary steps for
implementation. The
broad concepts are somewhat controversial. They include:
Controversial Concept 1 -
Replacing Win-Lose solutions with Win-Win solutions
World War I and II were the
results of such Win-Lose philosophy. China cannot possibly copy
and follow such Win-Lose solutions to build its wealth. Another World War
with Nuclear Weapons will mean the end of the entire human race. There will be no wealth left for any
one. Some Win-Lose Rules still
dominate today's financial markets, such as options, derivatives and currency
futures. If a speculator has sufficient financial resources to control the
stock market of a small nation, then he can quietly buy call options to
prepare for an up leg assault. He then buys stocks aggressively to push the
market up and thus profit handsomely from the call options. He can then
quietly buy many put options to prepare for the down leg assault. Once he has
an excess amount of put options in his possession, he can dump the stock at
any price and profit handsomely from the put options. The Speculator then
converts the local currency back into US dollars by mounting an assault on
the currency. The entire currency reserve of the small country can be
drained within days. What is truly amazing is that every transaction is
legal under the Win-Lose Rules. The Prime Minister of Malaysia, Dr.
Mahathir Mohamad, has complained bitterly but so far no changes to these
rules are in sight. Due to the loose control
and monitoring, accurate estimation of the cash loss was difficult. Many
estimated the actual cash loss to the Asian nations exceeded US $280 billion.
The asset depreciation was in excess of US $3 trillion. US $280
billion is more than the total foreign currency reserve of Japan, which took
decades to accumulate. All these were drained within a few
weeks. An example of such a report was in the China International
News Daily on 26th November 1997. China must identify such
Win-Lose Rules and replace them with Win-Win Rules if it wants to progress
smoothly into the 21st century. Controversial Concept 2 -
Money is only a number in some Trusted Financial Institutions. It can
change from positive to negative without any wrongdoing by the individual. We
must view Modern Wealth as the Quality and Quantity of Meaningful Economic
Activities. Money is only a number in
some trusted financial institutions. Wealth can change rapidly, from positive
to negative valuations in many cases, without any wrongdoing by the
individual investor. Economic systems would be better served if our view of
wealth came to be the measure of the quality and quantity of meaningful
economic activities. This would help stave off such fluctuations by having
more realistic valuations. Many Asian tycoons have had
recent painful experiences with the dramatic fluctuations in the current
system. Their stock and property holdings in Thailand, Indonesia, and other
Asian nations lost most of their value in a matter of weeks. In such a
climate a person who has borrowed or has mortgages on his properties can
easily be wiped out. For example, a tycoon might
have a US $800 million mortgage on a building valued at US $1 billion in July
1997. The man would be considered creditworthy and had US $200 million
to his name. By Oct 1997, the entire property market in Thailand
dropped by 40%. The building would now be valued at less than US $600 million
and the owner is considered a debtor of US $200 million. If he had borrowed
in US currency and received rents in local currency, he could be forced into
bankruptcy. His net worth turned negative within weeks and he could do
little about it. His many years of hard work and achievement would be
wiped out in just a few weeks. Millions of people lost
their trust in the Asian financial institutions during the crisis, and many
have put whatever they could into US Financial Institutions. This helped the
US economy and further depressed the Asian Economy. Many economists and
mainstream news reports in the West attribute the collapse of the Asian
Economy to corruption, mismanagement, and oversupply of the local currency.
These may all be true. However, these elements were also present during the
many decades of the Asian Miracle. Our interpretation is that there will be
dirty linen in the collapse of any organization. China is well known for its
corruption and yet it suffered no collapse because its Financial Market was
closed and speculators chose not to attack it. The Asian Miracle before
the collapse was due to the important fact that when a country is in catch-up
mode, the pace of growth can be much faster than when a country is creating
something new. For example, there is no need to re-invent the automobile,
which took the West fifty years to perfect. A joint venture could enable
domestic production within a decade. The fast pace in Asia
greatly increased the quality and quantity of meaningful economic
activities. The Asians thought that they had mastered the art of Modern
Wealth. They focused on expansion and speculation. They wanted
recognition, such as building the world's tallest buildings. In the rush, inefficiency,
mismanagement and corruption were tolerated, and Asians let their defenses
down. They adopted and fell victim to the Win-Lose Financial Rules. Losing more than US $280
billion in a few weeks meant that some countries lost their entire currency
reserves. Meanwhile, the depreciation of more than US $3 trillion meant
many Asian tycoons lost their fortune. The tycoons with mortgages on their properties
might now be forced into debt or into bankruptcy. Decades of hard work
and achievement wiped out. No
wonder Asian confidence has collapsed! So far, the Asian Nations
are not changing nor protecting themselves from the Win-Lose Financial Rules.
China MUST not fall into the
same trap. Asian countries should
focus on increasing the quality and quantity of their meaningful economic
activities. The IMF practice of closing down industries, creating high
unemployment, opening the country further to the Win-Lose rules is causing
more damage and will retard the progress of the Asian Countries. Controversial Concept 3 - A
Country such as China must increase its own money supply. It cannot just earn
it. This is one of the most
important concepts for China to master if it is to progress into the 21st
Century. The prudent way for an individual to accumulate wealth is to
earn more than he spends. He can thus accumulate wealth or increase his
investments in the financial institutions of his choice - banks, stock
brokerage firms, properties, etc. However, a country such as
China must view money differently. For example, if we set a modest goal
that the average Chinese citizen will have a saving or asset of 55,000 yuan
ten years from now. Where would the money supply or asset come
from? The increase of 50 trillion yuan (50,000 * 1 billion), or US $6
trillion, cannot possibly come from exports alone. The buyer nations
will not tolerate such huge trade imbalances. This means China must look
for ways to increase its wealth from within. Printing money recklessly
without justification will cause intolerable inflation and will give
speculators a good excuse to attack the currency. Solutions such as mutual
credits (more on mutual credit later) and creating companies as a source of
wealth must be implemented. Implementation steps Step 1 - Use of
Experimental Zones as "Replication Masters" China has been extremely
successful in the use of Special Economic Zones such as Shenzhen and
Shanghai. This should be continued. China MUST not open up
completely before it is ready.
If the dirty linen, corruption and poor business practices which are
now plaguing the rest of Asia, are not cleared up, then trust will evaporate. In such a situation, China could
collapse suddenly, perhaps even within the span of a few weeks. Previously, the Special
Economic Zones were used by Chinese government economists to learn and to
increase understanding. Now the Special Economic Zones will be
developed as "master cookie cutters" with the aim of rapid
replication. These "master cookie cutters" will be used to
clone other zones. China may have many cities
that look like Shenzhen or Shanghai with almost identical buildings, shops,
facilities and infrastructures. This cloning or replication process
will make China the envy of the world in the 21st century. The growth
rate will be in multiple digits for the foreseeable future. China must have the mindset
that spending 100 million yuan in building roads in the Special Economic
Zones is increasing the wealth by 100 million yuan. Such accounting is
acceptable provided that all resources in building the roads come from within
China. (Foreign investors would expect a return on their investment and
the money paid to them would have to come from the Chinese economy.) If the increase in money
supply is open and it is properly communicated that the increase is backed up
by real increases in resources and products that support the strength of the
currency, then there will be no danger of runaway inflation. The citizens
will support it wholeheartedly if they know that 50,000 yuan is targeted to
flow into each of their pockets. This strategy must be discussed openly and
promoted properly to citizens and trading partners both within and outside
China. The following steps will
highlight many ways in creating wealth and putting more money into the
pockets of Chinese citizens. Step 2 - Creating Companies
as a Source of Wealth There will be Entrepreneur
Support Policies which surpass anything practiced today. The proposal is as follows: Part A - Government Funded
Facilities, namely:
Part B - Infrastructure
support, namely:
Part C - Additional
Enhancement
Part D - Who are the Public
Investors
Every citizen can be a
Public Investor once in his lifetime. If there are more qualified applicants,
250 of the "Public Investors" will be the winners of the dummy
trades on the computer system (essentially a stock game to train investors)
and 250 will be the winners of a random lottery system. Losers will automatically
qualify for next month's lottery. Part E - The Implications
Step 3 - Develop Mutual
Credit or Trade Balance Agreements with other Cities or Countries Conceptually, the
Mutual Credit Arrangement is easy to understand. Two parties exchange goods
or services of equivalent value. Both sides will have roughly equivalent
meaningful economic activities, creating a win-win situation. The earliest
barter systems have the above elements. For example, let us presume
that Hong Kong and Shanghai plan to do a Mutual Credit Agreement worth US $2
billion in 1999. The Hong Kong Government sets aside Hong Kong dollars to the
equivalent of US $2 billion (whatever the exchange rate is at present). The
Shanghai City Government sets aside Chinese dollars or yuan. The set aside amount can
then be used to guarantee to the participating Hong Kong and Shanghai
merchants that no matter what fluctuation in currency might occur, a fixed
and guaranteed exchange rate will be used for their transactions covered by
their Mutual Credit Agreement. Let us examine the impact
of a US $2b Mutual Credit Agreement for Hong Kong. If we simply divide the
sum of $2b by $20K (assuming US $20K is the average Hong Kong Salary), we get
100,000. This means 100,000 jobs for Hong Kong. The impact to the total Hong
Kong revenue is roughly 1.7% ($2b/($20,000 * 6m)). Would Hong Kong reject
such a win-win proposal? The impact to Shanghai is
even more dramatic. The average salary is only US $3,000. This translates to
670,000 jobs ($2b/$3K). A step-by-step process
would be as follows:
The meaningful economic
activities covered within the Mutual Credit Agreement may be the traditional
money-making trade activities, such as: (1) Manufactured Goods Some non money-making
cultural activities such as student exchanges, joint conferences etc. may
also be considered meaningful economic activities. The Shanghai City
Government can provide interest free student loans for their students to
visit and enrich their education experiences in Hong Kong. The "foreign
currency" is already guaranteed by the Hong Kong Government. The reverse
also applies. Some research activities
that usually have low priority can now take place. Examples of this include
studies on the psychology of the single child; the social needs of the single
child parent; the impact of the internet on the school systems; the
interesting places for tourists to visit, the opportunities for the
restaurant industries; the opportunities for the entertainment industries;
the opportunities for the fashion designers; the opportunities for the
software industry; the opportunities for franchising; etc. etc. In times of recession, we
have to "spend" our way out.
If we "spend" the right way --such as doing much more
opportunity exploring-- we can get out of recessions much faster. The
individuals who lost half their fortune in the Asian Financial Crisis would
not be likely candidates to fund "non money-making" or
"research projects". The Public Sector or the Government must step
in. In a Mutual Credit Agreement,
Hong Kong "spends" on Shanghai and Shanghai "spends" on
Hong Kong. We not only stimulate the economy but also generate good will at
the same time. Isn't this a Win-Win situation? The merchants and
individuals in a Mutual Credit Agreement still think and do their
transactions in money terms. They have the assurance of a fixed exchange rate
that ensures stability. They also have the guaranteed payment from the
Governments that already "hold" the needed currency. Any company or organization
that wishes to participate in the Mutual Credit Agreement needs to go through
a qualifying process to ensure that it can deliver the goods or services.
Once qualified, their information will be available on the computer systems.
Any trade agreement reached will also be recorded and displayed on the
computer systems. The offsetting amounts can be updated in real time. This Mutual Credit
Agreement will stimulate the economies of Hong Kong and Shanghai and increase
the work ethic of their citizens. With US $2 billion to be had, the
entrepreneurial spirit of the two cities will increase, and the economic
activities which result are likely to exceed the money initially invested. With Mutual Credits, there
is no currency flowing outside the two parties for the Speculators. In reality, the set-aside amount can
just be numbers on the internet waiting for the merchants to do offsetting
deals. The foundation behind
Mutual Credit Agreements is trust. For example, while Thailand does not have
US $2 billion currency Hong Kong or Shanghai can still have a Mutual Credit
agreement with Thailand valued at US $2 billion. Instead, the guarantee is
that the minimum of meaningful economic activity will be worth at least US $2
billion to both parties. Shanghai and Shenzhen can
have Mutual Credit Arrangements with each other and with other Chinese cities.
This means that the meaningful economic activities within China can be
greatly increased without fear of inflation. The increase in money
supply is tied to increases of economic activities between cities. Chinese
citizens can become rich through internal mechanisms! They have to work hard
and in a clever way to earn it. Their increased capability easily justifies
the extra supply of money. So long as the overall
balance of trade is zero or slightly in China's favor, there will be no
excuse for any attacks by speculators. China MUST control its currency and
build trust via open information systems. The Win-Lose Rules will not be
allowed in the Experimental Zones and, hopefully, banned in all of China. This Win-Win solution can
be applied to any trading partner including Japan or the US. It will be one
of the top trumps in the Trading Game. China MUST master and perfect it. Step 4 - Develop
‘Relationship Selling’ into a Science Let us examine the
following example: Suppose we are an importer
who sells cattle from other parts of China in Shanghai. We can see that the
cattle we buy are not as big or as well fed as the ones at other agricultural
shows. We can bring up this point and use it at the bargaining table to drive
down the price of the cattle. We follow the buy low sell high philosophy. Alternatively, we can use
the Relationship Trading technique and talk about how the cattle can be
improved. We can talk about how a win-win scenario can be established if we
can help to introduce a new breed, improve the feed, use newer technology,
etc. We may even go one step
further and talk about entrepreneurial support as discussed in Step 2. We can
talk about developing a business plan in an entrepreneur support center,
getting Public Investors or other private individuals to pump in capital and
exciting the General Public to prepare for listing as a stock exchange
company. We can get partners from the agricultural schools - let the
students do the vigorous research and stimulate them to become entrepreneurs. Thus, even if the
introduction of the new breed and the new technology costs $100 million yuan,
investment capital will be available. The Chinese citizens must treat
such investment as investment into their collective future. The new
breed can be marketed not only to Shanghai but also to the rest of China and
even to the rest of the world. Chinese merchants must change their
habit of hoping to finance operations via earnings or borrowing. The
right way is to team up whenever possible. Japan Inc. was successful.
We should think in terms of Hong Kong Inc., Shanghai Inc. and even China Inc.
In conjunction with the greater monetary supply the Chinese Government will
provide, the citizens will essentially be investing new money into new
ventures. With the success of some of the ventures, the new money will have
created new, real wealth, and the money's value will be supported by this new
wealth. In this way the whole country can be enriched. We can apply the same
principle to pigs, chicken, ducks, apples, oranges or any other products. How
can Shanghai or other Experimental Zones be short of jobs? Not all new ideas
are high technology. There are opportunities which can be implemented
and that only involve low technology which has relatively little risk. This mindset of "I
scratch your back and you scratch mine" will create the next wave of
very meaningful economic activities for China. It will build China's
image as the Win-Win solution provider, and Chinese citizens will see double
digit percentage increases in their personal wealth. Relationship selling
coupled with Entrepreneur Support in a Mutual Credit environment virtually
guarantees success for the Experimental Zones. As soon as one or more
Experimental Zones are developed into "model cookie cutters," China
can churn out dozens more. If the increase in money
supply (say, $50 trillion yuan) in the next ten years is tied closely with
the increase in the quality and quantity of meaningful economic activities,
there will be no danger of runaway inflation. China would have thousands of
"Public Investors", entrepreneurs, business tycoons and civil
servants studying and supporting it. With the "cookies"
popping up everywhere, the confidence of the Chinese will rise quickly. If the Chinese drop the
Win-Lose Rules and adopt the Win-Win Rules in both domestic and international
situations, they will be seen as the Win-Win solution provider. They will
trust themselves and their own financial institutions. And China will
become the wealthiest nation in the world. It cannot, however, succeed
by opening itself up to competition immediately. China must first improve its
own products and business techniques through these methods outlined above
before it can successfully compete with the West. Therefore, not only are we
creating a level playing field for China, but also we can in the process
train the players (the business people) to the level which they will need to
be able to compete. At present, the calibre of Chinese players is nowhere
near competition level. Most don't even understand the rules! In the long run, China will
open up its markets completely to competition, but not before it is prudent
to do so. Both the advantages and pitfalls of this policy can be seen in
Japan. Japan Inc. grew because its small companies were encouraged to compete
against the world, not against each other. However, after many years the
domestic infrastructure remained too heavily protected by relationships built
between Japanese companies that consumer prices were extremely high. When
Japan opened to the supermarket style of the West, many traditional small
businesses failed -- causing the present Japanese economic crisis. Therefore, China should
protect its industries and support them and help them grow -- and then cut
the strings and let them compete fully with the world and with each other. Step 5 - The Web Way The Web Way of openly
developing ideas in a many-to-many environment is the way of the 21st
Century. In the old days of software development, one was supposed to do a
thorough system analysis and attack the problem from the top down. When a
problem was too complex and involved too many factors, the analysis phase
could take months. Sometimes, the analysis finally completed, the business
environment had already changed, making the work done irrelevant. With the Web Way, we just
start anywhere in solving the complex economic problems in China. We just
pump out the ideas and the proposed solutions as fast as possible. Let
anybody jeer or cheer. Link to other webs to form a bigger web. Some people
will attack the problem from the top down. Some will attack the problem from
bottom up. Some will attack the problem sideways. Some will insist on a
global vision. Some will insist on detailed, practical solutions. The
important element is to share the ideas early. If the ideas were ill advised,
then take the jeers and upgrade the ideas. With Experimental
Zones, the Chinese leaders do not have to worry about dirty linen. They can
start clean or openly acknowledge that there will be dirty linen in the
Experimental Zones. One of the challenges is to clean the dirty
linen. Let the experts analyze the problems and propose the
solutions. Let these experts compete. Any one can propose and present
his vision. There is no need to wait for the direction from leaders. In other
words, China will never be limited by the vision of its leaders. So long as
there is one clever Chinese or one friendly American proposing great ideas,
China can surge ahead. With the Web Way, there is
often no need for formal plans nor deadlines for many projects. Once the
project ideas or challenges are raised, many experts will try to crack
them. When the concepts are clear, we can write proposals, followed by
formal bidding. China can easily contract the proposal writing to the
contributing experts. This will attract the interest and participation
of many experts. The Experimental Zones will not be short of ideas,
information, knowledge or special skills if the leaders are willing to tap
the Web. Summary It is easy for China to
maintain a high growth rate as it is in the catch-up mode.
However, it is clear from the Asian Financial Crisis that copying the
Win-Lose rules from the West will invite disaster. Decades of hard work
and sacrifice can disappear in days. China has to open up
slowly. China must identify the Win-Lose rules and replace them
with Win-Win rules. Some Win-Lose rules are options, derivatives and
currency futures. Some Win-Win rules are Mutual Credits, Relationship
Selling and Creating Companies as a Source of Wealth. China should continue its
policy of using Special Economic Zones such as Shenzhen and Shanghai.
However, the emphasis can be different. Previously, the emphasis was on
learning. Now the emphasis should be on producing the replication
masters. The next phase of economic activity for China is likely to be
the cloning from the replication masters. We discussed many
innovative proposals which cab be readily implemented, such as:
The Chinese Economic
Architect has now presented the blueprint. The Chinese Economic
Engineers will have a busy and fun time implementing it. |
The rest of
the on-line book with the first part in Chinese is available in http://www.energyfromair.com/thebook.htm
|
Comments from the Editor and reviewers: Innovative ideas do not need to be restricted to
science. The above Blueprint for
the Economic Development for China in the 21st Century article
demonstrates this. Ideas in the
field of Economics, Social Science and Philosophy do not need experimental
confirmation. Many new ideas (or
unpolished diamonds) can be proposed.
The ideas presented in this section are all very impressive. But the one that strikes me most is
the new roles of Rulers. They
are no longer just defenders from other Rulers. They are a key element in defining, implementing and
maintaining meaningful economic activities. Money is just a number in trusted financial institutions. The Rulers or Governments are
responsibly in maintaining these trusted financial institutions. They are responsible for increasing
the number (money supply) so that the citizens can all be wealthy without the
need to rob others. |
3.3
Meeting of the Legislative Council Member of Hong Kong in Los Angeles
Tseung took part
in an essay competition organized by an overseas Chinese Newspaper. The subject was the return to China of
Hong Kong by the UK. Tseung used a
small section from his above article on the Blueprint for the Development of
China in the 21st century.
He won a small prize. That
encouraged him to pay more attention to the affairs in Hong Kong. He wrote bits and pieces on the
internet.
From the
overseas Chinese Newspaper, Tseung learned that Ms. Emily Lau, one of the most
influential Legislative Council Members of Hong Kong, was in Los Angeles. Tseung knew her brother Edward Lau very
well from a very young age. Tseung
decided to pay Emily a visit with an early draft of his eBook.
Emily was very
pleased to spend time with Tseung.
She talked about the optimistic view of the future of Hong Kong. The property and stock market boomed
just before the return of Hong Kong to China. There was a general feeling that the Hong Kong citizens
would prosper more when they have control of their own future. She talked about the lack of good politicians
and the need for political training in Hong Kong. She suggested that Tseung should spend some time in Hong
Kong.
The business
side of Tseung’s ventures was not doing well. He could only just survive by taking odd consulting
jobs. He could not earn any money
with his patents. He suffered two
strokes. The first was a minor
one. He was walking on the street
and just fell down with a sudden dizziness. He went to see his family doctor and was told to take things
easy. The advice in addition to
medication was to do light exercise, watch the diet and take more rest. Tseung recovered relatively
quickly. However, managing a
start-up one-person company with no regular income was a big stress. Tseung got his relief through posting
on the various internet forums.
The second
stroke came after a business meeting.
His face became distorted and his speech blurred. The doctor confirmed that it was a
severe stroke. Tseung had to take
much medicine and underwent massage sessions to help correct his facial
distortion. His mental ability
deteriorated. At the worst time,
he could not remember more than four numbers at any one time. For example, when some one told him an
eight-digit telephone number, he could only remember four digits. Everything had to be written down.
Emily advised
Tseung to try Chinese medicine and acupuncture. She said that Tseung might be able to do more for Hong Kong
if Tseung actually lived in Hong Kong.
|
Comments from the Editor and reviewers: (a) Tseung had his share of bad health. The second stroke almost destroyed
his brainpower. Or did that
allow his brain to redevelop and reach new heights? (b) One should never despair. Miracles do happen.
Age did not seem to have an effect on the innovative concepts from
Tseung. Physically, he could not
run or play tennis. His swimming
was more like floating and gently kicking his arms and legs. However, his innovative ideas and
scientific insight are still impressive. (c) Have you had blessings in disguise? |
3.4
The Asian Financial Crisis
The event which
really convinced Tseung that he could do more in Hong Kong than in the USA was
the Asian Financial Crisis. Tseung
believed that the stock markets in the Asian Countries could be controlled and manipulated. The use of stock options and index
futures could further aggravate such a process.
Tseung outlined a possible form of attack by the
foreign vultures:
(1) Buy Stock Index futures assuming that the stock
prices would go up.
(2) Buy Stock and force the Market up. Make huge profits from the stock index
trading as mentioned in item (1).
(3) Spread the news that foreign investors are
optimistic about the future of the country. Get the local people excited with stories of quick
profits. Many will jump into the
stock market. Some even borrowed
money or played with margins.
(4) Quietly buy stock index futures assuming that
the stock prices would fall.
(5) Force the Market down by selling the stock
purchased in Step (2). At the same
time, spread the news that foreign money is leaving. The local stock market would collapse in a hurry.
(6) There might be some gain from the selling of the
stock. However, the huge profit
comes from the stock index trading of item (4).
(7) Buy currency futures assuming that the local
currency would depreciate.
(8) Convert the huge profit from local currency to
US dollars. Drain all the foreign
currency reserve of the country in a few days. The local currency collapsed.
(9) Make huge profit from the currency future
trading of item (7).
(10) When the economy of the country collapsed, buy
their valuable assets at fire-sale prices.
Each of the
above steps is legal. It is a
classic example of the big fish eating the small fish. Tseung wrote the above article at the
start of the Asian Financial Crisis in Thailand. The Hong Kong Officials took a tour in the USA and tried to
convince the world that Hong Kong was safe from the financial attack. Tseung attended that presentation and
was shocked to hear from the speaker that the Hong Kong Government believed
that the free stock market system was fair and no foreign vultures could ever
control or manipulate it.
Sure enough, the
Asian Financial Crisis hit Hong Kong a few months later. Tseung wrote an open letter advising
the Hong Kong Government to buy up the Hong Kong and Shanghai Bank at bargain prices. The foreign vultures were effectively
giving the Hong Kong Government and People a gift. The then Financial Secretary, presently the Chief Executive
of Hong Kong, Mr. Donald Tsang, used the reserves of Hong Kong to buy Hong Kong
stocks and fought off the foreign vultures. He purchased sufficient HSBC shares to make the Hong Kong
Government the largest shareholder of the HSBC Bank. But there was no attempt to take over the management of the
Bank.
Tseung began to
feel that he could have a role to play in Hong Kong. Destiny might be calling him. At the same time, his son got a well-paid job in Hong
Kong. Tseung decided to join his
son in Hong Kong.
|
Comments from
the Editor and reviewers: (a)
Tseung finally
moved back to Hong Kong. (b)
Is the environment
better in Hong Kong than USA for innovators? The New Energy and Flying Saucer inventions have major
economic and political implications.
In the USA, Tseung might get funding similar to the 225 HP Pulse
Motor. His work would be treated
as confidential. None of it
would probably be published.
(There might even be the worse fate of disappearing from the surface
of the earth.) (c)
Hong Kong might
be the best place as it is one of the freest cities on Earth. Hong Kong is never famous for it
innovation or scientific achievements.
Citizens care about money above everything else. The presentation and internet posts
from Lee and Tseung were initially treated as jokes. One of the semi-government officials
even said the following to Tseung: “After you have won the Nobel Prize, we
shall fund and support you”. (d)
Can you think of
one idea that can change the economic future of your country? Write it down and share it with your
friends or post it on the internet. |
3.5
Writing the Book on Economic War
Tseung initially
lived with his son in the prestigious Hill Crest Apartments in the Mid-Level
District of Hong Kong. The top 1%
of the wealthy people live there.
The atmosphere is polite and reserved. Tseung was uncomfortable in such surroundings and decided to
move to a village area in Tai Po.
He enjoyed fishing and there were a few artificial fishing ponds in that
area. Soon after he moved to Tai
Po, a lady by the name of Eunice Wong came to visit him.
Ms. Eunice Wong
came from a very influential family in Vietnam and settled in China. Her family was responsible in repairing
the relationship between China and Vietnam. Her political connections informed her about Tseung. When she saw Tseung, she said, “I have
an experimental Chinese Medicine that is very good in helping stroke
patients. It is not available on
the market. Would you like to try
it?” Tseung was willing to try
anything. The medicine
worked. Within four weeks,
Tseung’s memory improved. He could
remember the standard eight-digit telephone numbers used in Hong Kong. Tseung knew that the medicine really
worked because he could program at his previous level of efficiency again.
Before he had
the strokes, Tseung could plan out the logic of a computer program and then
write the computer code as if he were writing a letter. After the stroke, that was no longer
possible. After having the Chinese
Medicine, Tseung was able to write computer programs easily again. The daily two-hour morning walk helped
too. The rented apartment was
close to the large Plover Clove Reservoir. Tseung made an effort to walk the full distance of the main
dam every day. The air was fresh
and the exercise was exactly what the doctors ordered.
Eunice Wong was
interested to introduce Tseung to the senior officials in Vietnam. She spent many days working with Tseung
on his book. Tseung also got the
help of Ms. Polly Chan to help in the Chinese typing and translation. Eunice was particularly interested in
l
The orderly
development of the real estate market in Vietnam.
l
The training of
the Economic War warriors.
l
The computer
programs related to Mutual Credits.
l
The coordination
of the Planning Right Hand with the Market Economy Left Hand.
When the first
draft of the book was ready,
(http://www.energyfromair.com/thebook.htm)
Eunice invited Tseung to travel to Vietnam. Tseung knew that she must be important in Vietnam when he
saw that there was a police escort car behind the vehicle. The tour started with a trip to a large
real estate development. The price
of an apartment in this development jumped from US $13,000 to US $32,000 in a
single year. Many speculators
bought the apartments; left them vacant and hoped to profit from the rapid
increase in price. The Vietnamese
Government introduced some administrative measures such as fixing the ceiling
price at US $26,000 and imposed fines if an apartment was left vacant for more
than a period of three months.
The Official
asked Tseung to comment. Tseung
showed him the steps outlined in the draft of the book. The new rules of the game as outlined
were:
1.
The Vietnamese
Government publishes a long-term plan to redevelop all old housing in the City
of Hanoi within thirty years. (Many houses are still using corrugated iron).
2.
The Vietnamese
Government will provide mortgages directly or indirectly to help the Hanoi
citizens to buy homes. The creator
of money is the Vietnamese Government.
The rate of increase of money will be adjusted to match the rate of
growth of the meaningful economic activities.
3.
The Government
offers a minimum buy-back price.
This will provide the confidence for the citizens to purchase their
homes.
4.
Try to use the
resources from within Vietnam to build such houses. If there were some specific items not available within
Vietnam, try to use Mutual Credit arrangements to acquire them.
5.
The price of
houses will appreciate. Try to
keep the appreciation in step with the GDP growth. The GDP growth was expected to exceed 10% annually.
6.
The Government
does not need to borrow money aboard.
It can print or create money.
7.
Create many
meaningful economic activities.
Ensure that the GDP growth exceeds 10% annually.
8.
The property
owners are virtually guaranteed to be winners. They do not need to pay rent. They will earn the appreciated value. (The mortgage interest rate can be
fixed at around 5%. The loan
amount can be 90% of the value of the property which will not be lower than the
Government guaranteed amount). The
policy is like putting money into the pocket of every citizen.
9.
Have public
and private co-operation in the real estate development. Create many private companies which can
be listed on the Stock Market.
The next day,
the Official introduced an important translator to translate the book into
Vietnamese. The translator was a
relative of the famous Vietnamese General who defeated the French. The translator said, “The book will be
read by all senior officials. We
are now confident that the Economy of Vietnam can grow by at least 10% annually
for the foreseeable future. Thank
you for your guidance”.
The book was
also brought to the attention of the Chinese Economists via an Official in the
City of Guangzhou. The book
acquired a nickname of “The Bible of the Ninth Yin”. The nickname came from the comparison with a famous Chinese
Boxing Novel. In the Novel, the
Bible of the Ninth Yin contained extremely powerful boxing techniques. However, if misused, great harm will
come to the boxer. The Chinese
Economists commented that the Book contained many powerful economic
concepts. However, if misapplied,
there will be great harm done to the Country. Tseung thought that the nickname was pretty appropriate. The Book was meant as stimulation
rather than a vigorous textbook.
|
Comments from the Editor and reviewers: (a) The Book
on Economic War was written to stimulate. The Vietnamese Officials appreciate it more because
someone important introduced it to them. Do we need someone important to introduce this Book on
Innovation? (b) Or will
the working electricity generator be sufficient to make this Book a best
seller? (c) Is it
likely that a small Country takes the ideas and technologies outlined in this
Book and changes the future of the World? Is it possible that powerful countries like the USA, China
and Russia focus too much on classifying such technologies as top secret that
they actually fall behind? (d) Can you
explain the concepts of mutual credits, meaningful economic activities, sure
win businesses now? Do you think
that such powerful concepts can replace the theory of survival of the fittest
in the political world? |