A Common Sense Approach to Analyzing Bank
Stocks
Miami
Computer Group Shares Workshop Program
Reprinted
from the Winter 1995 BITS |
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by Connie
Greenberg, Rebecca Fewell & Jane Chattergee Editor's Note: The SE Florida Council Miami Computer Group developed a common sense
approach for a special novice workshop held last fall on how to analyze
banks. Responding to the barrage of seemingly conflicting instructions the
investor is faced with when trying to analyze banks, the workshop staff
attempted to unravel the mystery by presenting a simplified version of the
best recommended approach. We are pleased to present the following summary of
their presentation which we believe will be of interest to many readers. It
describes how, with some modification, the NAIC Stock Selection Guide (SSG)
can easily be adapted to bank analysis and help investors find growth
companies in the banking industry. |
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Analyzing
bank stocks is a little different from analyzing the typical company,
however, it is not as difficult as you may think. With a little research and
study one can take the mystery out of bank stock analysis and begin to see
them as very similar to other stocks. There
are three primary differences in analyzing bank stocks. First,
banks have a set of operations that describe what they do in terms that are
quite different from those commonly found in Value Line and other typical
resources. Consequently, investors can't find the figures they need or even
the key words that usually guide their research. Second,
bank stocks do not report "sales" figures, therefore one must
calculate an equivalent figure. Third,
the typical procedures for evaluating management need to be expanded to
include two additional measurements for bank stock analysis. Two
further issues have compounded matters. Datafiles used in analyses have been
a source of frequent discrepancies, and there appears to be a lack of
consensus as to the best formula for determining "sales" figures.
After reviewing several sources and drawing upon the best recommended
practices, some simple strategies and written materials were presented in the
workshop. This article summarizes much of the material so that readers can
approach banking stocks with a little more understanding. Bank Operations
Let's begin by thinking about what banks do. The basic
business of banking is buying and selling money. They collect deposits, then
lend those dollars to customers. Banks buy money, so interest expense is like
the cost of goods sold. Banks sell money, so interest income from loans and
investments represents income. For many banks, non-interest income (fee based
revenues) has been growing significantly. Banking is undergoing a basic
regulatory change and, due to competition outside the banking industry, such
as investment services, credit sources, charge cards, etc., non-interest
income is becoming increasingly important to banks. This new avenue of growth
could be the basis of a bank's increased profitability and equally important,
it is a revenue source that is less susceptible to the economic cycle. Key Banking Terms
Readers will need to familiarize themselves with some key
banking terms in order to effectively use reported data for SSG analysis. A
glossary of key banking terms has been included for your use. A Figure to Use For
Sales
Revenues are not as complicated as they seem at first.
However, there has been considerable discussion and confusion in arriving at
a revenue (sales) figure for banks. Figure 2 includes a list of various
instructions and data entry sources typically used. |
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Which
one do we choose? In making that decision it is important to note that
"A" and "B" account for the majority of the income or
revenue approximations. Figure "D", and to a lesser extent
"C", are refinements or minor extra steps in deriving the best
possible revenue number for a bank. The result of using the A + B + C - D
formula will be the most accurate figure to represent net "sales".
Although the shorter A + B formula results will be less accurate without
"C" and/or "D", they can be just as helpful in
determining how revenues have been growing over the years. What is lost in
failing to subtract "D" is a "net sales" figure. |
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The
Loan Loss Provision (LLP) for a bank's loans is equivalent to the
"allowance for returns and adjustments" in goods sold when
considering a manufacturing company's total sales. We usually plot
"net" sales when we study a manufacturing company -- that is gross
sales less any allowance for returned or defective merchandise. This same
concept should be applied to banks. More important, by using "D" in
the formula, one is forced to examine the trend, including any significant
changes in the LLP. If the LLP is growing faster than loans themselves, that
should trigger a flag. If the LLP is declining that means problem loans may
be declining and the quality or integrity of loans may be improving. Based
on the formula you select, the annual revenue results are then entered into
the "Sales" (Revenue) data column of the annual data input screen
of the bank you are analyzing. Locating quarterly figures for manually
calculating "sales" (revenues) is another common frustration. Those
figures can be found in bank quarterly or 10Q reports. As
previously noted, certain problems have been identified with the new S&P
datafiles commonly used for SSG analysis. Specifically, the annual and
quarterly historical "Sales" (revenue) figures for banks have been
incorrectly calculated. This concern has been brought to the attention of
S&P CompuStat and the data has been corrected beginning with the third
quarter 1994 data files. (They are being shipped this month.) One should make
a practice of checking any data source you use with the exception of the
annual report. If you find unexplained discrepancies, try to verify or
correct those figures. The most important thing to remember in using any of
the manual formulas or data files is simply to be consistent. Use the same
formula and source of data for all the banks you choose to analyze and
compare. Evaluating Management
Two additional measures are essential in evaluating bank
management: % Return On Assets and % Net Interest Margin, both of which are
defined in the Glossary. These annual numbers, found on the S&P Stock
Reports, can be manually recorded next to % Pre-tax Profit on Sales and %
Earned on Invested Capital in Section 2 of the SSG. These figures enable us
to compare year-to-year performance and trends in much the same way as %
Pre-Tax Profit on Sales figures are compared. An even or upward trend is
desirable. Percentages and year-to-year percentage change in these measures
will typically be quite small, but represent huge profits (or losses). For
% Return on Assets, small returns (1%) represent huge profits because banks
are so highly leveraged, (i.e., many dollars of assets supported by each
dollar of equity). This is due to the fact that loans are assets. In the case
of the % Net Interest Margin, the level may appear to be low (3% - 5%), but
even a .01% - .02% difference from year-to-year can mean thousands of dollars
in profits. One
additional comparison can assist readers in evaluating the growth and
profitability of a bank. Just as you would manually plot sales and earnings
per share, simply plot the annual Book Value Per Share figures on the front
graph of the SSG next to the Earnings Per Share. The Book Value trend should
be parallel or similar to the Earnings trend. If it is not, this signals
concern. For example, the fundamentals of the company may be deteriorating,
or the company may be paying out more dividends and may not be reinvesting
earnings. Book Value Per Share can be found in S&P and Value Line Stock
Reports, and in the bank's annual report. Members
of the Computer Group Workshop on this topic were presented the above
guidelines along with written materials and exhibits. This was followed with
a hands-on computer experience in applying what had been covered.
Participants not only gained new knowledge, but demonstrated they could apply
it. The fear of bank stock analysis was greatly diminished and new learning
was rewarded by our success in identifying two growth bank stocks which are
shown in the SSGs accompanying this article. There
are useful terms and measures that can be used in bank analysis other than
those presented here. Some are more technical or difficult to locate.
Generally they provide additional information on the quality of bank assets.
Reading the bank's annual report and comparing the figures with similar banks
will add to your information and to the meaning and significance of those
numbers. We encourage readers to pursue further research and to add to these
recommendations their own measures for evaluating and comparing banks. Like
those who attended this workshop, we hope readers will feel more confidence
in their own ability to analyze bank stocks. |
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Glossary of Banking Terms
1.
Operating Revenue: A comparable measure to
"sales" in the banking industry. This figure is not routinely
provided in reports, but can be calculated by adding a bank's "net
interest income", non-interest income and when available, the tax
equivalent adjustment. Then, from that sum, subtract the loan loss provision.
2.
Interest Income: Interest earned on loans,
investments and other assets. 3.
Interest Expense: Interest paid on deposits and
other liabilities. 4.
Net Interest Income: The difference between interest
income and interest expense (interest earned and interest paid). This
"net" figure automatically takes the level of interest rates out of
the year-to-year comparisons. 5.
Non-Interest Income: Fee based revenues for such
business as investment services, charge cards, etc. 6.
Tax Equivalent Adjustment: An adjustment which takes into
account that some of a bank's assets are in tax exempt securities, and it
adjusts that interest income on a fully taxable equivalent basis. Some annual
reports have already factored this adjustment into their statements and
report their figures as "taxable equivalent". 7.
Loan Loss Provision: An expense which is set aside as
an allowance for bad loans (customer defaults or terms of a loan have to be
renegotiated, etc.). Similar to a mfg. company's allowance for returns on
goods sold. 8.
% Return On Assets: Represents how much money is
being made for every dollar of assets held. It measures the underlying
profitability of a bank's entire operation. 9.
% Net Interest Margin: The difference between interest
paid to depositors and other sources of funds and the interest collected on
loans and other investments (interest earned and interest paid). This amount
is then divided by average earning assets. This number measures a company's
success in the basic banking business. 10.
Book Value: The value of common stock of a
company, found by adding par value of the common, retained earnings,
reserves, and surplus. Then divide that sum by the number of outstanding
common shares. Book value may or may not be close to market value. The trend
of this value measures the growth and profitability of a bank. |
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The
authors are members of NAIC's Southeast Florida Regional Council, and are responsible for Miami & Points South
Educational Programs. Connie Greenberg is an Associate Director, Rebecca
Fewell is a Member and Jane Chattergee is a Director of the Council. Workshop
Guidelines, printed materials and exhibits were compiled and written by
Connie Greenberg. |
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