Future MLS Expansion Plans--------by Section 112 Blizzard
Nov 3rd 2006

The last seven days have been a slow news week for Toronto FC as the franchise awaits the upcoming expansion draft and the decision on the roster rules that will apply in terms of Canadian and international players, which will be made at the league meetings when the league I/Os gather for MLS Cup in Dallas on November 12th. This is perhaps a good time then to set the scene for the league's future expansion plans since that will be one of the other major issues that will be addressed by the I/Os.

To provide a brief recap of the league's history, MLS kicked off with 10 franchises in 1996, the New England Revolution, NY/NJ Metrostars (now Red Bull New York), DC United, Tampa Bay Mutiny, Columbus Crew, Kansas City Wiz (soon mercifully renamed the Wizards), Dallas Burn (now known as FC Dallas), LA Galaxy and the San Jose Clash (later renamed the San Jos� Earthquakes after the old NASL team and this season relocated to Texas as the Houston Dynamo). In 1998 the Chicago Fire and Miami Fusion were added, but after the 2001 season MLS contracted by eliminating the two Florida franchises in a bid to stem league losses and attract new investors.

Since then the league has accepted two expansion bids for the 2005 season from Chivas USA to play in Los Angeles in the LA Galaxy's Home Depot Center and from Real Salt Lake as well as the bid by Toronto FC for the upcoming 2007 season. The current plan is to add one more team to balance up the numbers in 2008 and then two more in 2010 to create a 16 team league before taking a bit of a breather on expansion for a few seasons. Some people assume that the league will eventually stop at FIFA's recommended limit of 18 teams, but it should be noted that Lamar Hunt (the I/O of the Columbus Crew and FC Dallas) has stated that he believes somewhere in the region of 32 would be more realistic as a long term goal given the geography of North America.

The league commissioner, Don Garber, has stated repeatedly that there are three pillars required for an expansion bid to be successful. Firstly, a viable stadium deal which includes access to key revenue streams like concessions and parking preferably in a new medium sized soccer specific stadium like BMO Field. Secondly, a deep-pocketed I/O who can afford the expansion fees and to take a long term strategic view of the league's future growth potential. Thirdly, a large metropolitan area that can provide a regular five figure fan base and a strong base of corporate and media support.

The prime candidates for the remaining three franchises to be awarded over the next few seasons currently appear to be:-

Cleveland - A conditional Cleveland franchise was awarded to the late Bert Wolstein, the former owner of indoor soccer's Cleveland Force, for entry in 2005 but a stadium deal required to make it happen fell through. Since then Wolstein's son, Scott Wolstein has continued to work towards MLS expansion based on a wider surburban retail development project in Summit County, Ohio.

San Jos� - The ownership of the Oakland A's recently agreed an exclusive three year option with MLS for the rights to a franchise if a suitable stadium solution can be found. The main problem that led to the relocation of the San Jos� Earthquakes franchise to Houston was with the terms of the rental agreement at San Jos� State University's Spartan Stadium. Although San Jos� remains the preferred location, the A's owners have offered to build an SSS in any San Francisco bay area municipality that will provide free land and any infrastructure upgrades required for the project.

Philadelphia - A franchise located in Glassboro, NJ on the outskirts of the wider Philadelphia looked highly likely this summer based on a $US 1 billion campus expansion plan at Rowan University. There was even talk of relocating the Kansas City Wizards (who will have to relocate from Arrowhead Stadium next summer due to renovation work) but this fell through when New Jersey was unable to provide the required level of state funds for the project. Although Rowan University still wants to proceed with their soccer stadium plan this appears to have been a serious setback and MLS's expansion plans may shift to the other side of the Delaware River if another Philadelphia area expansion bid emerges.

St. Louis - A St Louis area franchise involving Snoop Dogg's agent, Michael Huyghue, appears to be a strong contender for 2008 although to date little has been publicly mentioned concerning negotiations with municipalities on the location of a new SSS. St. Louis was traditionally one of the main hotbeds of American soccer as was recently depicted in the movie, "The Game of Their Lives".

Atlanta - Two different investor groups are reported to be interested in MLS expansion to Atlanta, including the owners of USL-D1's Atlanta Silverbacks who have been developing a new soccer stadium for their franchise albeit initially on a much smaller scale than would be required for MLS.

Vancouver - Greg Kerfoot, the owner of the Vancouver Whitecaps, is currently attempting to obtain permission from the City of Vancouver to build a new 15,000 seat soccer stadium over some rail yards in the Gastown district on Vancouver's waterfront. There has been speculation that this will lead to an MLS bid when the stadium is projected to be ready, just after Toronto FC's three year exclusive rights to all of Canada expire after the 2009 season, although the Whitecaps have continued to talk up USL-D1 in many of their recent public announcements. It should be noted that Don Garber usually omits Vancouver from the list of interested cities when talking to the American media but tends to talk up the possibility of expansion to Vancouver and/or Montr�al when in Canada.

Milwaukee - The expansion bid for Milwaukee is fronted by former Chicago Fire GM, Peter Wilt. So far the main stumbling block has been putting together a viable stadium deal based on a broader set of plans for a larger $US 300 million mixed use development project. There are concerns that Milwaukee is perhaps too small and that larger media markets such as the San Francisco bay area and Philadelphia should be the main focus.

Rochester - Despite long being the city most often mentioned in connection with MLS expansion due to the success of the Raging Rhinos in USL-D1 and despite the fact that a new SSS was opened earlier this year based on funding from New York State, Rochester is now considered a long shot since the ownership of the Rhinos do not appear to have sufficient funds for the league expansion fees and widespread concerns that the market is too small for a league that aspires to one day be on the same level as the NFL, MLB, NBA and NHL.

It should be noted that Tulsa and San Diego are sometimes also mentioned in dispatches, while in the past Seattle and Oklahoma City have also been prime contenders. Although the cities listed above are the main contenders, Salt Lake emerged out of nowhere to obtain a franchise for the 2005 season when Seattle had appeared to be the most likely second location to balance Chivas USA in numbers terms, so any of the large metropolitan areas in North America that have not been mentioned could easily emerge as a new frontrunner between now and 2010.

The bottom line is that the prospects for future MLS expansion have never looked brighter than they are today but progress will undoubtedly be slow due to the difficulties inherent in putting together deals that are often worth well in excess $100 million dollar for the soccer specific stadia that are required to give MLS franchises a fighting chance of being profitable.

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