TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF BSE SCRIPS

 

5th September 2001.

The markets are headed lower at last after a month long sideways movement. For those of you who are wondering which scrips to go short in, the cement trio of ACC, Gujarat Ambuja Cements and Grasim are all pretty weak. But as we keep harping, the bottom is quite close by, so it is better to watch out for reversal and catch the bottom now rather that to get trapped in a short position at the market bottom.

Another stock that is looking very weak is BSES. It has gone below its support of Rs. 184 and can very well test the low of 156.05 formed on 13-03-01.

REVIEW OF THE STOCKS DISCUSSED LAST WEEK

BAJAJ AUTO

Not much has changed since we gave a buy call last week. The targets and the stop loss level given last time still apply.

CASTROL

Castrol stopped at our first target of Rs. 271. The price has currently dipped to Rs. 257. Buying can be done for the short term with a stop loss at Rs. 248. Targets will be 278, 292 and then 314.

Fundamentally this company has a pack of woes. So buying can be contemplated with a short-term viewpoint only.

CIPLA

This is another scrip that has behaved as per our expectation. It has broken out of the upper boundary at 1185 and is currently positioned around Rs. 1300. The short term targets in this scrip fall at Rs. 1284, Rs. 1327 and then at Rs. 1396. There is an important resistance zone between 1330 to 1360 where traders ought to be careful.

Stop loss level for investors can now be increased to Rs. 1180.

DR. REDDY'S LABORATORIES

The Indian pharma companies are all currently basking in the sunshine of investor's interest. Dr. Reddy's hit a new all-time high this week. The short-term targets for this rally are 1889, 1970 and then 2015.

We mentioned last week that a reaction has set in this share. The rally to Rs. 1979 can still be part of the corrective wave that started from Rs. 1920. A rally above 2050 is required to tell us that the up trend has resumed. Other wise, we will see another dip to at least 1850 before the up trend resumes.

HINDUSTAN LEVER

The third part of the correction seems to be unfolding now. The short-term targets are at Rs. 214, Rs. 211 and then at Rs. 205. Buying can be done at these levels with a stop at Rs. 190.

 

OTHER IMPORTANT PIVOTALS

HINDALCO

The scrip could have made an important long-term reversal. But we would like to see a close above Rs. 713 before taking position in this scrip.

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES

This share has been in a long term up trend since the low of 116.90 (16-04-99). This long-term bull cycle ended at Rs. 450 (02-03-01) and we are in a bear cycle that can extend for the next two to three years. Simple retracement targets for this bear cycle fall at Rs. 323, Rs. 268 and then at Rs. 244.

The price made an intermediate term low at 299.95 (27-07-01) and has been moving up tentatively since then. This low could be the end of the C wave from the top of 450. The target for this C wave were Rs. 306, Rs. 245 and then Rs. 183. Stopping at the first target shows the bullish undertone in the scrip.

As far as the short term is concerned, the trend is up since the low formed at 299.95. Traders can take small buy positions at current levels with a stop at Rs. 300. If the price takes off upwards, it can go on to 342, 359 or 386. Fall below Rs. 300 will spell danger.

TELCO

The chart of Telco looks pretty interesting from a long-term perspective. The price has made a double bottom at Rs. 58 and is currently moving up. There was a sharp jump from the low of Rs. 58 to Rs. 83.56 and then a correction has set in.

The intermediate term trend is sideways with the price moving between Rs. 84 and Rs. 72. We can expect the price to dip in the short term to Rs. 73, Rs. 69 or Rs. 65. This will be a good time to enter the scrip with a stop at Rs. 62.

 TISCO

We will keep this chart on our watch list. The price has been moving in the range between Rs. 70 to Rs. 170 for the last three years. Since we are near the lower end of this range long term investors can consider taking selective positions with a stop at Rs. 60.

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