The political impasse at the centre shows no signs of resolving itself. The market continue to be in a jumpy phase with the fate of the Lok Sabha hanging in balance and the specter of another election almost upon us.

The slide that began on 17th April was arrested on the 19th of April, 1999 and the sensex rose to touch a high of 3516 this week. The reaction to this rise has dragged the sensex down to 3400 once again. The forthcoming week has two holidays in it. So, unless the political developments will otherwise, the sensex should fluctuate in the 3300 to 3500 zone for the three days in next week.

As far as our broader counts are concerned, the bear-phase-from-3817.94 (15-03-99) count points out that we are in the third minor ( beginning at 3709 on 17-04-99) of the third wave (beginning 3781.97 (31-03-99). The downward target of the third minor is at least 3191. What makes this count weak, is the corrective waves, which are as long as the impulse waves.

The other broader count that needs to be borne in mind is that a fresh impulse wave has started at 3296.53 (17-04-99). The second wave of the rise from 3296.53 could be on now and the third wave has an upward target of at least 3604. But the low of 3296.53 should not be breached for this count to remain valid.

The sensex is expected to open weak on Monday as the fate of the country is to be decided by this afternoon. The immediate target is 3350 and beyond that 3318. If the sensex does not turn up from the 3300 level, the next support will be at 3266. If the announcement of general elections is taken badly by the market players, then the sensex can even crash to 3182.

If the sensex opens higher on Monday, the initial target is 3446 and the next target is 3487. If the market is very bullish due to some new political development, it can rise to 3569. If the sensex turns down in the afternoon after rising to about 3450, a fall to at least the previous low of 3361 once again can be expected.

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