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Posted: 25-29 May 09

Barry Eichengreen:  Fix global imbalances to avert future crises--Future history books, depending on where they are written, will take 1 of 2 approaches to assigning blame for the world's current financial and economic crisis, says UC-Berkeley economist,  Proj Syndicate (courtesy Gulf Times/Qatar),  24 May 09;  and

From our archive:  Jeffrey Sachs--Blame for the global crisis (letter to editor):  Krugman repeats the claim that Asia caused the global crisis by oversaving. He writes that after the Asian financial crisis of '97-'98, Asian emerging economies amassed "huge war chests of foreign assets" & that "most of that money went to the US - hence, our giant trade deficit." But the numbers don't add up,  NYT (free registr reqd), 7 Mar 09

Olive Room:  Genocide prevention task force co-chairs honored at Holocaust Museum--Fmr Secy Albright (State) & Cohen (Defense) were honored at the US Holocaust Memorial Museum for their work on genocide prevention. The 2 co-chaired the task force, jointly convened by the Holocaust Museum, Amer Acad Diploma-
cy & USIP, which recently
released its report,  US Inst Peace,  23 Apr 09  (UN lessons from Rwanda)  {NB: 29 May is the Intl Day of UN Peacekeepers--Ed.}

Coffee/tea room:  Intl airports council
presents awards to top air-
ports
--The selection of the best airports are based on the results of the Airport Service Quality Survey.The awards are determined solely on the basis of passenger views expressed through on-site surveys - about 200,000 worldwide - which are conducted year-round,  Airports Council Intl,  22 Apr 09 [pdf]

Q&A with Cambridge U's Ha-Joon Chang on the financial crisis:  What is your assessment of the situation right now?Warren Buffett has just said that the economy has gone off a cliff. Can you explain what are neoliberal policies, & then can you critique them?, Dem-
ocracy Now(courtesy Pulse), 10 Mar 09 (Prospect '07--
Protect-ing the global poor | Myrdal Prize '03 | Leontief Prize '05);  and

World trade set to fall 13%, OECD urges govts to avoid protect-
ionism
:  With world trade volumes likely to shrink by as much as 13% in '09 from '08 levels, OECD warned that govt actions to dis-
criminate vs foreign goods, services, firms or workers could have a devastating effect in terms of prolonging & deepening the reces-
sion, OECD, 19 May 09 (International trade--
Free, fair and open?)

Boardroom:  Shane Greenstein -- The long arc behind the wealth of Bill Gates (I & II):  He founded & then managed a co. that pro-
vides software for PCs, & in the process became unbelievably rich, comparable to only a small no. of biz figures in history ('robber barons' in popular speak), like Carnegie, Rockefeller, Bell & Ford. With his retirement, what judgment should history render?: Did he make his wealth through fair means or foul?, asks Northwestern economist,  IEEE Micro (Inst Electr & Electro Engr) [pdf], Apr '08


Mohamed El-Erian: Life after the financial crisis--It is amazing how often I am asked a question along the lines of, 'What inning is the crisis in?' Well, we won't be going back, anytime soon, to business as usual - what financial analysts like to call mean reversion. We're in the midst of a regime shift,says CEO of leading bond-investment co.,  Business Week,  21 May 09

Business school releases World Competitiveness Yearbook:  The '09 rankings put US on top, followed by Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland & Denmark. This year, an additional ranking is done (using a subset of 20 criteria) - a stress test on competitiveness, with Denmark coming out on top,  IMD/Switz,  20 May 09  (More info | Rankings | And now, what's next?) [pdf]

Bruce Bennett: NKorean threats require deterrence, reconciliation--The ability to deny effective attack is the best way to deter NKorea from employing such threats. While doing so will be costly, the cost is far less than the potential damage that NKorea could cause. South/ North reconciliation and the improvement of conditions in NKorea  could also reduce its intent to become hostile. Both paths should be pursued - they are complementary, says senior policy analyst, Korea Herald (courtesy Rand),  13 Mar 08

The experimenter:  Economist Raj Chetty believes that if he can bring models & theories into better alignment with real-world evi-
dence, he will help shape econ policy. It's an ambition that runs in the family: his father was an adviser to Indian PM Indira Gandhi in the '80s, helping her privatize the govt-run cement industry with India's transition from socialism to capitalism,  American Mag,  Oct '07 (
Young Econ Award '08 | Harv Gazette-Finance scholar named econ prof)
                               
Posted: 18-22 May 09

Lean Russia--Sustaining econ growth through improved productiv-
ity:  Russia's economy has been growing rapidly over the past dec-
ade, w/ per capita GDP doubling over this period.But
a new report finds that key historic sources of its growth - favorable global mar-
ket conditions for exports, positive demographic trends, & available capacity - are no longer available, and in this new environment, productivity & new investment become critical drivers for its future growth, McKinsey, Apr '09


Olive Room:  'Just Jerusalem' competition winners announced --MIT's Jerusalem 2050 prog announced the winners of its global Just Jerusalem competition.Participants were asked to look beyond the current nation-state conflict and instead focus on 'just' the city as a place where, by 2050, its citizens coexist in peace.Also known as Al Quds, the city is claimed by 2 nations & central to 3 religions, MIT News,  21 Mar 08  (More info | Prog co-dir)  {NB: Israelis celebrate Jerusalem Day on 21 May, the anniv.of what they regard as its historic reunification under Jewish rule in the '67 war--Ed.}

UN seeks $454 million for Pakistan refugees:  The UN appealed for $454m in extra aid to help the refugees fleeing Pakistan's latest offensive vs Taliban militants in the nation's north-west. Nearly 1.5m people have been displaced by this mo.'s intense fighting in the Swat valley & the nearby districts of Buner & Dir. Another 500,000 were uprooted last year,  Deutsche Presse-Ag. (courtesy Earth Times),  22 May 09

Jeffrey Sachs:  The costs of expanding the govt's economic role--If we continue to assume that we can have the expanded govt that we need but without the tax revenues to pay for it, the unacceptable build-up of public debt will threaten the well-being of our children and our children's children,says Columbia Earth Inst dir,  Scientific American, May '09

Joshua Kurlantzick:  Twilight of the autocrats--Will the financial cri-sis bring down Russia and China? The econ downturn has cre-
ated a profound threat to the autocratic regimes of the world, from China and Russia to Venezuela and the Persian Gulf states, says Carnegie Endow Intl Peace scholar, American Prospect, 16 Mar 09


11 Nobel Peace Prize winners condemn Burma trial as 'mockery': 11 Nobelists are calling for fellow laureate/Burma pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi ('91) to be freed. Costa Rican Pres Oscar Arias ('87) joined Desmond Tutu ('84), Jody Williams ('97), Adol-
fo Perez Esquivel ('80), Rigoberta Menchu ('92), Wangari Mathaai ('04), Betty Williams ('76),Shirin Ebadi ('03), Mairead Corrigan Maguire ('76), Timor Leste Pres Jose Ramos Horta ('96) and the Dalai Lama ('89) in letters to UN sec-gen and Assn of SEAsian Nations sec-gen,  Ag. France-Presse (courtesy HK Standard),  20 May 09 (Open letters:
11 Nobel Peace laureates | Norwegian Nobel Cmte)

Robert Shiller:  Story time for the economy--Since hitting bottom in early Mar, the world's major stock markets have all risen drama-
tically. Does this suggest that the world econ crisis is coming to an end? Could it be that everyone becomes optimistic again at the same time, bringing a quick end to all our problems?, asks Yale economist,  Proj Synd (courtesy Khaleej Times/UAE),  16 May 09

How to ensure financial stability after the crisis:  Even as govts & intl orgs seek to contain the current crisis, policymakers are debat-
inghow natl frameworks for financ stability - incl regulation & su-
pervision of financ institutions - should change.
A recent seminar examining future frameworks for mitigating systemic risk included 4 leading experts: Group of Thirty chair P Volcker; JPMorgan Chase Intl pres A Crockett; U Penn Wharton Sch's R Herring; and Lond Sch Econ's W Buiter,  IMF Survey Mag,  14 May 09

Fred Bergsten:  Currencies exchange (letter to ed) [scroll] -- The punchline to your article on China's foreign-exchange reserves ('Not quite so SAFE') is that "China cannot sour on the dollar w/o letting its own currency rise." This is not correct, notes Peterson Inst dir,  Economist, 9 May 09  (FT--We risk calamity unless China safely offloads unwanted dollars)

UN summit seeks joint response to crisis: With the unanimous sup-
port of the UN Gen Assembly, its pres is planning to hold a high-level meeting of all 192 member states to discuss the financial cri-
sis. The meeting on 1-3 June is expected to be attended by heads of state/govt. Whether it will be another talkfest or a landmark conference will depend on the final outcome document which will be drafted in the next few weeks by member states,  Inter Press Service, 13 Apr 09 (
Summit's Web site | Sec-Gen report to summit [Advance copy, pdf])

Forecasters expect lower growth, higher unemployment for next 2 years:  The economy looks weaker now than it did in Feb, acc to 51 forecasters in the latest Survey of Professional Forecasters, the oldest quarterly survey of macroecon forecasts in US. For '09, the panelists see the economy shrinking at a rate of 2.8%, but they expect it to expand by 2.0% in '10,  Fed Res Bank Philadelphia,  15 May 09

Josette Sheeran:  One year on from the food crisis--Unfortunately, the 3 F's - the food, fuel and financial crises -  have gravely set us back, leaving us with the 3 U's - food security that is unstable, un-
sustainable and unequal. The new face of hunger is driven not only by poverty, discrimination or crop failure & natural disasters, but by global econ factors, says UN World Food Prog chief,  UK Dept for Intl Dev (courtesy WFP),  10 Mar 09

                               
Posted: 11-15 May 09                    

Coffee/tea room: New digital library to display world on a Web site
--The World Digital Library is not just any library. Hailed as an on-
line 'intellectual cathedral', it is an unprecedented coming together of some of the world's finest treasures, a digital looking-glass through which Internet users can view & study tens of thousands of cultural gems from nations as diverse as Sweden, Saudi Arabia and S Africa, Guardian,  9 Apr 09  (
Europe's digital lib)

Ralph Cossa:  Burma/Myanmar--Focus on the long term:  Burma & Aung Sang Suu Kyi are once again in the news, for all the wrong reasons. The US position toward Burma has long been one of total isolation until such time as the ruling junta recognizes the results of the '90 election which should have brought Suu Kyi's Natl League for Democ. to power. This is simply not going to happen.That a new policy is needed is beyond dispute,but what that policy should or will be is far from clear, says Pacific Forum CSIS pres,  Global Security, 15 May 09

M Belka & S Mitra:  In one boat, but in stormy weather -- Hit by a twin storm of drying-out capital inflows & shrinking exports,emerg-
ing Europe is going through a deep crisis, say IMF European dept dir & economist, Gazeta Shqiptare/Albania(courtesy IMF), 13 May 09 (Econ
outlook for emerging Europe--in ch 3)

Coral climate crunch could displace millions:  The Coral Triangle
(the 'Amazon of the oceans') - bounded by 6 nations (Malaysia, Philippines, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands,Timor Leste & Indonesia) - makes up only 1% of the Earth's surface but contains its richest marine environment, with 30% of its coral reefs, 76% of its reef building coral species, and 37% of its reef fish species. The triangle supports the livelihoods of more than 100m people, acc to a new report launched in Manado on the sidelines of the World Oceans Conference,  World Wildlife Fund,  13 May 09  (
Map of triangle)

Kenneth Rogoff:  When the crisis is over, we must
understand a 'new normal'--How strong an expansion can one reasonably expect when the worst is finally over? Is the 'new normal' going to be the same as the 'old normal' of the boom years from '02 to '07?, asks fmr IMF chief economist, Proj Syndicate(courtesy National/UAE), 7 May 09

Coffers:  Emerging markets rally shows risk is back -- Many stock markets in emerging economies are showing spectacular recovery so far this year and investors are returning but on a highly selective judgement of risk, Ag.France-Presse(courtesy China Post/Taiwan), 12 May 09

Asian university rankings reveal surprising results:  Top Asian universities have been evaluated in the 1st regional ranking from QS Quacquarelli Symonds Ltd, the compilers of the Times Higher Education-QS World University Rankings,  QS/UK (w/ Chosun Ilbo/SKorea),  12 May 09 (Top 200 univs | More info)

From our archive:  O little town of Bethlehem--For many people it is an idyllic image on a traditional Christmas card or school nativity play. A Christian Aid worker shares her visit to the 'real' Bethle-
hem, a little town in the heart of the West Bank Palestinian Terri-
tories,  BBC News, 25 Nov 08 (
Wikipedia map | Not sure where it is | Bethlehem Passport | The other Bethlehem story)

Pope visits contentious sites in Jerusalem:  The Pope took his mes-
sage of peace to the most contentious sites in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, & he recalled the common roots of the religions of the biblical patriarch Abraham - Islam, Judaism & Christianity,  Los Angeles Times,  12 May 09  (BBC '07--
Obstacle to peace: Jerusal-
em | Holy Jerusalem:
The key to peace)

G Akerlof & R Shiller: 
How 'animal spirits' wrecked the housing market--Real-estate markets are almost as volatile as stock mar-
kets. Prices of agri land, of commercial real estate, & of homes & condominiums have gone through a series of huge bubbles, as if people never learned from the previous ones. Such events are driv-
en by what Keynes called animal spirits, a naive optimism at the intersection of overconfidence, corruption, storytelling & money illusion, say Nobel laureate '01 & Yale economist,  Chron Higher Ed,  17 Apr 09

AfDB/OECD/UN release
African Economic Outlook:  The '09 edi-
tion covers 47 nations, up from 35 last year. The report finds the region gravely affected by the global econ downturn. Following half a decade of above 5%  growth, the continent can expect only 2.8% in '09, less than half of the 5.7% expected before the crisis,  OECD, 11 May 09  (IMF--Econ outlook for
sub-Saharan Africa)

What do you
give the developing world for Mother�s Day?:  We asked experts on development and/or women's health to suggest simple measures to improve the well-being of mothers around the world, New York Times (free registr reqd),  9 May 09

Mideast, North Africa weathering global crisis:  The financial crisis has not spared the Mideast and North Africa region, but good econ fundamentals, appropriate policy responses, and sizeable currency reserves are helping to mitigate the impact of the shock. Growth in the region could slow to 2.6% in '09 from 5.7% in '08 before re-
covering to about 3.6% in '10,  IMF Survey Mag, 10 May 09 (Cri-
sis virtually halts growth in
Caucasus & Central Asia)

Human resource firm releases quality of living city rankings:  Euro-
pean cities dominate the top of this year's rankings, with Vienna scoring the highest for overall quality of living, and Baghdad the lowest. This year�s ranking also identifies the cities with the best infrastructure, with Singapore at the top,  Mercer, 28 Apr 09  (
More info)
                                
Posted: 4-8 May 09

Joseph Stiglitz:  The spring of the zombies--The banking system has just been tested to see if it is adequately capitalized - a 'stress' test that involved no stress - and some couldn't pass muster. But, rather than welcoming the opportunity to recapitalize, perhaps with govt help, the banks seem to prefer a Japanese-style response: we will muddle through. 'Zombie' banks - dead but still walking among the living, notes Nobel laureate '01,  Proj Syndicate (courtesy Guatemala Times), 7 May 09

Coffee/tea room:  The measure of genius--In the spring of 1509, just 2 years after a mapmaker coined the word 'America' in honor of the explorer Amerigo Vespucci,a fellow Florentine named Buon-
arotti was beginning to work on one of the defining masterpieces of Western Civilization in Rome's Sistine Chapel. His first name - Mi-
chelangelo - would also reverberate through the ages,  Smithsonian Mag, 10 Apr 09  {We were searching for a link like this in time for the long weekend [known as Easter to some of our readers]. As we only chanced upon this belatedly, better late than...later--
Ed.}

Richard Posner:  Why the economic crisis was not anticipated -- A recent article attributed the almost universal failure to anticipate our current crisis to 'insanity' - more precisely, to a psychological inabi-
lity to give proper weight to past events. But biz cycle experts, like Fed Chair Bernanke, are not confined to basing predictions on naive extrapolation. So why did he & other experts, inside & out-
side govt, neglect warning signs of a coming crash?, asks 'A Failure of Capitalism' author,  Chron Higher Ed, 17 Apr 09


World Development Indicators provide benchmark amidst crisis: The recently released World Dev Indicators '09 tells the story through comprehensive data of how developing nations benefited from a long period of prosperity which may now be set back due to the current crisis. It is the benchmark that will help measure both the impact of the crisis and eventually of global recovery,  World Bank, 22 Apr 09  (WDI info | Free--Intro ch 4 [pdf] and selected dataset)

Will globalization be derailed by the world financial crisis? -- The debate and the conversation: Yes, says Princeton historian/intl affairs prof Harold James. Globalization comes and goes. Right now, it�s going. No, says Foreign Policy editor-in-chief Moises Naim. There's a lot more than finance and trade binding the world together,  McKinsey's What Matters, 4 May 09

Coffers:  Learning on the job--The politicians of the SE Asian nation of Timor Leste can't agree on how to handle its oil and gas wealth. So the head of its petroleum fund puts the cash into US Treasury  bonds. Smart move,  Forbes, 26 Mar 09

Recession compounds crisis in Afghanistan, Pakistan,says Asia So-
ciety report:  A prestigious panel of intl experts is warning in a new report that the econ crisis is fuelling the Taliban insurgency, eroding govt control in Pakistan's major cities & could lead to the creation of new terrorist safe havens there,  Canwest News Svce/ Can., 22 Apr 09  (Report--
Independent task force on Afg.-Pak.)

Obama cracks down on tax havens:  Pres Obama rolled out a plan Mon (4 May) aimed at raising $210B over the next 10 years by clamping down on tax havens & curbing US companies' incentive to outsource jobs. The proposal would eliminate some tax deduct-
ions for cos. that earn profits in nations with low tax rates, as well as consider US citizens who use offshore tax havens guilty of vio-
lating US tax laws, News agencies(courtesy Kuwait Times), 5 May 09; 
and

A Rose & M Spiegel:  Offshore financial centers - Parasitic or mu-
tually beneficial? -- Your local crime lord has one. So do most drug dealers, white-collar criminals & Mafioso.Have you got an offshore bank account? Offshore fin centers might encourage bad behavior, such as tax evasion & money laundering. But, acc to UC Berkeley economist & SF Fed Res Bank vice-pres,their net impact on neigh-
boring economies is positive,  Econ Journal/UK (courtesy UC Berkeley), Oct '07 [pdf[  (
Royal Econ Society briefing | Res article [pdf])

The
10 crises you aren't expecting but should be: A new report identifies 10 places around the world where the financial crisis has increased the potential for dramatic political changes,  Eurasia Group, 27 Apr 09  (Joint w/ Foreign Policy Mag--Part 1| Part 2)

Crisis deals sharp
blow to Asian growth:  The impact of the global crisis on Asia has been swifter & deeper than for other regions,says a new IMF regional outlook. Asian growth will fall sharply to 1.3% in '09 from 5.1% in '08. It says that a sustained recovery will need to await an improvement in the world economy,given Asian econo-
mies' specialization on advanced manufacturing & increasing financ ties with the rest of the world,  IMF Survey Mag, 6 May 09

East Asia sets up emergency $120B fund for crisis:  13 EAsian and SEAsian nations (10 Assn of SEAsian Nations members, Japan, China and SKorea) agreed on Sun (3 May) to launch a liquidity fund to shield itself from financial crisis, the first such facility in the region to be governed internally,  Reuters, 3 May 09  (Factbox)

Boardroom:  Amar Bhide--How innovation sustains prosperity in a more connected world: Many warn that the next stage of globaliza-
tion - the offshoring of research & development to China and India - threatens the foundations of Western prosperity. But biz/econ scholar explains why know-how developed abroad enhances - not diminishes - prosperity at home,  Columbia U, Oct '08  (
Princeton U Pr)

Coffee/tea room: The world's most influential person is...--In a stunning result, the winner of the 3rd annual Time 100 poll & new owner of the title 'World's most influential person' is 'moot',  Time, 27 Apr 09  (World's 100 most influential people)  {After that wide-
ly-watched boxing match on Sun [3 May], check out Lennox Lewis on
Manny Pacquiao--Ed.)

                          
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