You are at: Home > News/Analysis, Page 1 ('08) | Previous | Next Posted: 1-5 Dec 08 Paul Krugman: What to do -- We have to relearn the lessons our grandfathers were taught by the Great Depression. I won't try to lay out the details of a new regulatory regime, but the basic principle should be clear: anything that has to be rescued during a financial cri- sis, because it plays an essential role in the fin. mechanism, should be regulated when there isn't a crisis so that it doesn't take excessive risks, says Nobel laureate, NY Review of Books, 20 Nov 08 Robert Atkinson: Innovation economics and trade policy--While the US & other economies have been transformed by the forces of tech- nology, globalization & entrepreneurship, the doctrines guiding pol- icymakers have not kept pace. A new economic framework - innova- tion economics - offers the best approach for the 21st century, says IT Innov Found pres, Globalist, 1 Oct 08 (Part 2 | Is the US falling behind in sci/tech or not? From our archive: US still leads the world in sci/tech, benefits from foreign scientists, engineers: Despite perceptions that the nation is losing its competitive edge, US remains the dominant leader in sci/ tech, acc. to a recent study. US accounts for 40% of the total world's spending on R&D,employs 70% of Nobel Prize winners and is home to 3/4 of the top 40 universities. The inflow of foreign students, sci- entists and engineers has been a key factor, Rand, 12 Jun 08 Rate cuts begin as global economy reels: Sweden cut interest rates by a record 175 basis points today, prompting speculation of dramat- ic cuts elsewhere with UK and the euro zone due to unveil rate cuts. (100 basis pts equal 1%.) Earlier today, Indonesia made a surprise cut of 25 basis pts, its 1st reduction for a year, while New Zealand cut rates by a record 150 basis pts. This week, Australia & Thailand also cut rates sharply, Reuters, 4 Dec 08 (Timeline-World economies slide into recession) [courtesy Tiscali/UK & FXStreet/Spain] Kenneth Rogoff: Embracing inflation--This once-in-a-lifetime global economic recession requires a unique response: inflation is needed to combat the crisis, says fmr IMF chief economist, Project Syndicate (courtesy Guardian), 2 Dec 08 Weathering the storm--Economic policy responses to the financial crisis: Protecting the poor and the vulnerable while at the same time removing constraints to growth and productivity will be a priority to overcome the financial crisis and resume sustained growth, acc to a new report, World Bank, 30 Nov 08 (UN--New report calls for co- ordinated, massive & swift stimulus [pdf]) Will money solve Africa's development problems?--A conversation: Yes, says fmr Afghan fin min Ghani. Only if, cautions Grameen Phone founder Quadir. No, argues African Dev Bank pres Kaberu- ka. There are more views from African Exec Mag's Shikwati, Har- vard's Green, NYU's Easterly, among others, Templeton Founda- tion, Sep '08 Natl Bur Econ Res announces Dec '07 peak in economic activity (with FAQ): The Biz Cycle Dating Cmte met by conf call on 28 Nov & determined that a peak in econ activity occurred in US in Dec '07. A recession is a significant decline in econ activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few mos., normally visible in produc- tion, employment, real income, & other indicators. A recession be- gins when the economy reaches a peak of activity & ends when the economy reaches its trough. Between trough & peak, the economy is in an expansion, NBER, 1 Dec 08 (Recession dating procedure | Prev peaks & troughs) Thitinan Pongsudhirak: Thailand since the coup--A Web newspaper Prachatai says of this article: 'It falls somewhere bet. journalism and history, and it provides a useful overview. No doubt, in this divided political scene, it will be criticized by all sides.But too much has been going on behind the scenes for a clear analysis of recent events to emerge. And when we turn to the future, there is an elephant in the room that everyone tries to ignore - what happens in the succession to the throne? It is both unusual, and brave, for a Thai scholar to broach this topic openly,' J of Democracy, Oct '08 [pdf, 1.47MB] States must meet aid pledges despite financial crisis, Doha forum concludes: Participants from over 160 nations meeting at a UN con- ference in Doha stressed the need to meet existing aid commitments to poor nations, even amid the current slowdown, and called on the world body to hold an intl meeting on the global financial crisis and its impact on development, UN News, 2 Dec 08 (Doha Forum) 'No bailout plan for the vulnerable': 'Good but not enough!' 'Missed opportunity!' 'Talks fail to deliver!' These were some of the reactions from civil society as the UN Financing for Development talks drew to a close in Doha, Qatar on Tue, Inter Press Service, 2 Dec 08 Protracted Thai crisis is choking its economy: Thailand's prolonged political crisis is strangling its economy & deeply scarring the nation's image as a popular global tourist destination, Wall Street J, 1 Dec 08 World AIDS Day: Every year, on the 1st of Dec, the world comes together to commemorate those who have died and to bring attention to the global epidemic. 2008 marks the day's 20th anniv., and this year's theme is 'Lead-Empower-Deliver', UNAIDS (MTV--Staying Alive's 10th anniv | Fast facts about HIV) Posted: 24-28 Nov 08 Mobius still an India bull after attacks; Sensex rebounds: India's first terrorist attack vs foreigners has done nothing to dent Templeton As- set Mgmt head Mark Mobius's confidence in the stock market of the world's 2nd-fastest growing major economy.Meanwhile, the Bombay Stock Exch Sensitive Index rose 0.7% to 9,092.72 at the close in Mumbai on Fri, a day after the bourses were shut due to the attacks, Bloomberg, 28 Nov 08 Jeffrey Sachs: Obama needs time to rescue US economy--Roosevelt inherited a situation vastly worse than today's, yet through character, perseverance & vision, he helped lead America to safe harbor. I be- lieve that Obama will do the same.The key will be to avoid any sense of panic now, accept a recession that is certain, work to reduce its impact without undermining longer-term objectives, & then help US & the world to the significant structural changes that we need on a time horizon of 5-10 years,says Columbia Earth Inst dir, Irish Times, 11 Nov 08 F Gault & S Huttner: A cat's cradle for policy--OECD is developing a strategy for nations to measure & ultimately promote innovation. It requires knowledge of a complex system - pull one thread in the sys- tem and distant actors could be affected. Yet innovation is not just a preoccupation of OECD nations. The world's poorest have much to gain from innovation strategies in all nations, say OECD dir and re- searcher, Nature (courtesy OECD), Sep '08 [pdf] Roger Middleton: Piracy in Somalia--Threatening global trade, feed- ing local wars'(Briefing paper): Speed & stealth are essential for these pirates. They reportedly use portable air-defense systems, rocket-pro pelled grenades, global positioning systems & satellite phones in their activities. It is likely that they are plugged into an intl network that feeds info from ports in the Gulf of Aden, Europe and Asia back to Somalia, & may be agents of intl terrorist networks, says Chatham Hse consultant, Inst Intl Affairs/UK, 2 Oct 08 Thailand seeks clarification on sinking of 'pirate' ship: Thailand sought a clarification from India on its sinking of an alleged pirate ship last week in the Gulf of Aden after evidence emerged that it was a Thai vessel. A ship survivor provided details of the incident from his hospital bed in Yemen, saying the ship was en route from Oman to Yemen with a crew of 16 when it was raided by pirates, and all of them were tied up when the Indian Navy attacked, Deutsche Presse-Agentur (courtesy M&C), 26 Nov 08 (Intl Maritime Bur piracy alert) Forum aims to ensure adequate funds to meet development goals despite crisis: Representatives of govts, biz & civil society are set to meet this weekend in Doha, Qatar, at a UN conference focusing on ensuring sufficient financing to meet key development goals amid mounting concern about the impact of the current global slowdown on poor nations, UN News, 24 Nov 08 (Doha Follow-up conf on financing for dev) Emerging debt--India, Thai spreads widen as political risks rise: The risk premium for a top Indian lender rose on Thu, reflecting investor anxiety after deadly attacks by gunmen in Mumbai. Analysts view Thailand as posing the bigger risk than India, with the attacks still seen as an isolated incident, while the Thai uncertainty is escalating, Reuters, 27 Nov 08 (India markets to take time bouncing back from attacks) [courtesy Trading Markets & EconTimes/India] Central, East European economies to slow sharply in '09: Growth in the region is likely to fall sharply in '09 in the face of global economic slowdown & financial market turbulence, the EBRD's latest Transi- tion Report says. It urged the nations where it invests to place a high priority on the stabilization of their banking systems, European Bank Reconst Dev, 25 Nov 08 Steve Hanke: A Great Depression? -- The financial crisis of '08 has prompted many commentators to claim that we are about to enter another Great Depression.Yes, we are entering a serious slump - one that will probably last until late '09 or early '10. That said, it is not (& will not be) comparable to the Great Depression, says Johns Hopkins economist, GlobeAsia/Indonesia (courtesy RealClearMarkets), Dec '08 [pdf] Christina Romer: The Great Depression -- This was the worldwide econ downturn that began in '29 & lasted until about '39. It was the longest & most severe depression ever experienced by the industrial- ized Western world. Although it originated in the US, it resulted in drastic declines in output, severe unemployment & acute deflation in almost every nation of the globe, writes UC Berkeley economist, Ency Britannica (courtesy UC-B), Dec '03 (Obama's CEA pick) Asian growth to slow sharply in '09: Global demand for Asia's ex- ports is waning, with the euro area, Japan & US in a deep slump, the IMF's latest Regional Economic Outlook says. The financial environ- ment has also become extremely challenging. Global deleveraging is adding to tighter financing conditions, capital outflows, depressed equity prices, weakening of some regional currencies, & higher sov- ereign & bank spreads, IMF Survey Mag, 24 Nov 08 (WB--China's stimulus policies key for growth in '09) 'Global trends 2025--A transformed world' report released: A new re- port projects a still-preeminent US joined by fast developing powers, like India & China, atop a multipolar system in the world of the near-future, acc to a projection by top US intelligence analysts. And multi- ple financial centers will serve as 'shock absorbers' in the intl fin sys- tem, with the US dollar's role shrinking to 'first among equals' vis-a-vis key currencies.This unclassified report is the 4th in a series which examines geopolitical trends and analyzes their likely outcomes in an attempt to prompt public discussion of possible responses, Natl Intel- ligence Council, 20 Nov 08 [pdf] (Report) The massive master plan: The governor of the Saudi Arabian invest- ment authority is one of the forces behind King Abdullah Economic City, a $27B development rising out of the desert 100 km north of Jeddah, & he can already envision the arrival of its first residents. He & his backers insist they're not trying to out-Dubai Dubai--or any- body else--and that the new cities are meant to solve pressing econo- mic & demographic problems, Time, 16 Oct 08 Timothy Geithner: Systemic risk and financial markets--At the level of the fin institution, the key fin shock absorbers are capital and re- serves, margin & collateral, liquidity, and the risk management & control regime. Fin stability starts with ensuring that individual insti- tutions in periods of relative stability hold adequate resources vs the losses & liquidity pressures that can emerge in periods of instability, says NY Fed pres, Testimony-US House Fin Svcs Cmte, 24 Jul 08 (NYFed--His bio) Posted: 17-21 Nov 08 Henry Paulson: Facing one challenge at a time--We are going through a financial crisis more severe and unpredictable than any in our life- times. There is no playbook for responding to turmoil we have never faced. We adjusted our strategy to reflect the facts of a severe mar- ket crisis, says US Treas secy, NYTimes (via Intl Herald Tribune), 18 Nov 08 Sebastian Edwards: The financial hurricane hits Latin America--Recent events have disproved the notion that emerging nations had 'decoupled' themselves from the advanced economies.Most emerging economies are still fragile and affected by what goes on in the indus- trial nations. The effects of this recession will be particularly severe in LatAm, says UCLA economist, Proj Syndicate (courtesy Japan Times), 13 Nov 08 (APEC summit in Peru) Joseph Stiglitz: Realign the interests of Wall St--The financial sector is supposed to allocate capital judiciously, making sure that it goes to areas where returns, when adjusted for risk, are highest. Capital mar- kets are supposed to manage risk, transfering it from those parties less able to bear it to those more able to do so. But it is clear that US fin. institutions have not managed risk; they have created it, says Nobel laureate, Harper's Mag (courtesy Columbia U), Nov '08 [pdf] Editorial: India shows the way--India's clear response to the Somali pirates is the only one likely to prove effective. It contrasts sharply with the handwringing helplessness of other navies patrolling the area under a UN mandate. When the pirates aren't reaping ransoms from captured ships, they are being captured & released by intl patrols that have no place to take them, because the current intl mission is ham- strung by attempts to enforce laws on nationals from a state without laws, let alone prisons or courts, Investor's Biz Daily, 19 Nov 08 Nobel economists offer first aid for global economy: 5 Nobel laure- ates share their views on what the future global finance order should look like. Phelps--What has gone wrong up until now; Lucas--Reces- sion is the more immediate problem; Selten--Regulation of the finan- cial market is important; Stiglitz--A global crisis, made in America; & Samuelson--The dynamic moving Center, Der Spiegel, 12 Nov 08 Nigerian, Nobel laureate on UN experts' panel on crisis: The UN General Assembly has named a 10-member panel, incl Nigeria's Cen- tral Bank Gov Soludo, to examine possible reform of the intl finan- cial system, acc to the assembly pres.Nobel laureate Stiglitz will chair the panel, Pan-African News Agency (courtesy Afrique en ligne/ France), 16 Nov 08 (UN Gen Assembly) Colin Bradford: G20 summit--A new day for global governance: What happened was the bringing together, for all the world to see, of nations with widely diverse manifestations of mixed-economy capit- alism, from the directive approaches of Germany and France to the more interventionist forms of dynamic growth in Asia. The biggest issue on the table was financial regulation as a potential preventative of the next crisis. Where did they come out?, asks Inst senior fellow, Brookings Inst, 17 Nov 08 Simon Johnson: A G20 assessment--Just disappointing or potentially dangerous?: If the latest rounds of intl economic diplomacy were the Olympics, then China gets gold in the fiscal stimulus category, Ger- many gets silver, & UK (so far) is the distant bronze. Not the order- ing of world econ leadership that one would ordinarily expect, but perhaps that�s a good thing, says fmr IMF chief economist, Peterson Inst, 17 Nov 08 4th qtr Survey of professional forecasters: 51 panelists participated in this survey which began in '68, the oldest quarterly survey of mac- roeconomic forecasts in US.The survey participants were unanimous in saying that the US economy has entered or will soon enter a pe- riod of recession. The forecasters think the recession started in April '08 and will last 14 mos., Philadephia Fed Res, 17 Nov 08 Jorge Heine: Opening the rich countries' club--Pres Bush's calling of the Leaders' G20 meeting may be the single most forward-looking initiative of his 8 years in office, says Ctr disting.fellow, Jamaica Gleaner (courtesy Ctr Intl Gov Innov/Canada), 7 Nov 08 (Leaders- 20 | White Hse--Summit | G20 map [courtesy CSMonitor]) Gerry Helleiner: Developing nations, global financial governance, & G20--In terms of an appropriate process for global governance - one that is both legitimate & effective - I argue that G20 fails completely. Its creation totally ignored the serious and continued efforts of devel- oping nations, speaking collectively through their G24, to collaborate with G8 in the creation of a more effective & legitimate process. G20 should therefore be transformed substantially, says U Toronto econ- omist, Foreign Policy in Focus, Nov '01 (Group of 24) Posted: 10-14 Nov 08 No world leader talks for Obama at G20: The Obama transition team said last week that he would not attend the summit, but there had been some speculation he would participate in some talks on the meeting's sidelines. His spokesman said that in line with protocol ("there's only one pres at a time"), Obama would stay away, Agence France-Presse, 11 Nov 08 (Spain to be at summit) [courtesy NDTV/ India & DailySpain] B Eichengreen & R Baldwin: What the G20 should do on 15 Nov--We present several essays by leading economists from around the world on what the G20 should do this weekend. 4 priorities are iden- tified: act promptly to strengthen and coordinate their firefighting re- sponses; reinforce quickly the IMF's ability to firefight the crisis as it spreads to developing nations; 'above all, do no harm'; & 'think out- side the box' when it comes to long-run fixes, say UC Berkeley econ- omist & site editor-in-chief, VoxEU, 10 Nov 08 (What G20 must do) China stimulus plan fuels hope for new investment: Investors wel- comed China's $586B stimulus package as it joined moves by govts around the world to cushion the global slowdown. But analysts said the plan will depend on Chinese cos. to supply a big share of the spending. The news came as G20 finmins & c.bank governors from industrial & developing nations at a meeting in Brazil called for in- creased govt spending to boost the world economy, AP (courtesy pr-inside/Austria), 10 Nov 08 (IMF--Letter to G20 leaders | WB-- Implications of crisis for developing nations) IMF urges stimulus as global growth marked down sharply: In its latest forecast for world growth, the IMF sharply revised its project- ions downward, saying that 'global activity is slowing quickly'. The downturn will be led by industrial nations, whose output is forecast to contract in '09, the 1st such fall in the postwar period, and emerg- ing economies' growth is projected to slow appreciably. The IMF is urging nations to stimulate their economies in the face of a bigger-than-expected slowdown, IMF Survey Mag, 6 Nov 06 (Le Monde Q&A | Group of 20) New World Development Report focuses on place & prosperity: For the 1st time in history, more than half the world's pop. may be living in cities.A new report argues that some places are doing well because they have promoted changes along 3 dimensions of econ geography: higher densities, as seen in the growth of cities; shorter distances, as workers & businesses migrate closer to density; & fewer divisions, as nations thin their econ borders & enter world markets to take advan- tage of scale & specialization, World Bank, 6 Nov 08 << Previous Home Next >> Copyright (c) 2001-2009 Leonardo L. Sta. Romana All rights reserved. |
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